Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (24.04.2024)

Ολοκληρώθηκε η δηµοπρασία για την έκδοση 7ετούς οµολόγου από τη Eurobank, µε την τράπεζα να προχωρά στην άντληση κεφαλαίων ύψους 650 εκατ. ευρώ. Οι Προσφορές ήταν άνω του 1,475 δισ. ευρώ, απόδοση στο 5% και το κουπόνι της έκδοσης στο 4,875%.

Περιστέρης, Ε65: Επιταχύνουµε για την παράδοση και του Β. τµήµατος.

ΣΙ∆ΜΑ: Τα αποτελέσµατα προ φόρων διαµορφώθηκαν σε ζηµιές 4,3 εκατ. ευρώ από κέρδη 9,8 εκατ. το 2022. Στο -72,5% το EBITDA.

Ideal: Στην Guala Closures το 100% της Astir Vitogiannis. Στα €136 εκ. διαµορφώνεται µε βάση το deal το enterprise value της Astir, µε τα λογιστικά κέρδη της Ideal να εκτιµάται ότι θα υπερβούν τα €60 εκ.

Πλαστικά Θράκης: Λειτουργικά κέρδη 44 εκατ. ευρώ το 2023, µέρισµα 0,23 ευρώ. Το συνολικό EBITDA διαµορφώθηκε στα €44 εκατ., ενισχυµένο κατά 2,4%, µε τα καθαρά κέρδη να διαµορφώνονται στα €17,76 εκ. ∆ιατήρηση του όγκου πωλήσεων στα επίπεδα του 2022.

Ambrosia Capital: τιµές-στόχοι €10,10 για την ΕΤΕ από €7,95 πριν, €2,70 για τη Eurobank από €2,05, €2,15 για την Αlpha Bank από €1,90 και, τέλος, €5,30 για την Τράπεζα Πειραιώς από €3,95 πριν.

* Greece to tap the market for new 30-year bond

* Greece reportedly applies for another early repayment of €5.3bn European bailout loans

* Greek banks’ ECB funding down €3.7bn m-o-m (down €40.4bn from peak) to €10.6bn (almost entirely TLTRO) in March; State cash buffer flattish m-o-m at €35bn

* Eurobank (EUROB GA) issues €650m 7NC6 senior preferred notes, priced to yield 5%

* Sarantis (SAR GA) Q1 EBIT surged 55% y-o-y to €13.6m (11% beat) thanks to Stella Pack consolidation, 12% L-F-L sales growth and higher margins, +30% vs 1Q21 incl. discontinued Estée Lauder

* Mytilineos (MYTIL GA) 1Q24 EBITDA seen up 8% to €243m, despite the collapse in energy prices

* IOBE lowers 2024 GDP growth to 2.1% from 2.4%

ATHEX headed north yesterday, for a 5^th session in a row, as risk-on sentiment gained further momentum yesterday in the international markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 1.93% at 1,447.82 units, (FTSE Large Cap: +2.19%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.32%, Banks Index: +3.48%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 159.4m, up from Monday’s EUR 103.5m. We expect the positive momentum to continue today. 

Macro Headlines

Greece to submit the Updated stability programme to the EU by the end of April (press)

According to Capital.gr, the updated stability programme envisages GDP growth at 2.3% for 2024e (lower compared to the 2.9% estimate in the state budget) and 2.5% in average for 2024-27e.

PDMA to proceed with the issuance of a new 30-year bond.

Greece announced yesterday its intention to tap the markets with a 30-year bond, subject to market conditions.

IOBE quarterly review on Greece

IOBE released its updated forecasts for the Greek Economy, trimming its previous GDP growth estimate for 2024e to 2.1% (from +2.4% previously), and slightly raising the inflation estimate to 3.0% (from 2.6% previously).

Sector Headlines

SSM to approve dividend payouts-Press

Press reports (euro2day) indicate that systemic banks submitted in the previous days their dividend policies for 2023 to SSM and are optimistic that it will give the green light. Recall that Piraeus targets a dividend payout of 10%, Alpha 20%, Eurobank at least 25% and NBG 30%.

Company Headlines

Eurobank issued new senior preferred bond

Reportedly (Bloomberg), Eurobank issued a new senior preferred bond of EUR 650m with a coupon of 4.875%. The bond matures in 7 years and is callable in 6 years. Recall that Eurobank issued on 22 November 2023 a EUR 500m senior preferred bond at a coupon of 5.875%. Eurobank is one of our top picks in the sector with TP of EUR 2.41/share.

Mytilineos || BUY | CP: EUR 38.80 | TP: EUR 49.00

1Q24e Results preview | Strong quarter despite weak seasonality

Mytilineos is set to announce its 1Q24e Flash Note Results tomorrow Thursday, 25 April before the market opening (no Conference Call will be held). In more detail, we expect the stronger Renewables activity, the increased electricity supply profitability (on higher market shares) and the increased Thermal Generation contribution (note that 1Q23 was adversely impacted by maintenance), to more than offset the softer contribution from LNG trading (mainly due to lower prices, which are expected to offset the increased volumes). We also see solid performance of Metallurgy, despite the sharp y-o-y drop in Aluminium prices, as the company has proactively secured the favorable pricing environment in 2022-23. That said, we see Group Revenues at EUR 1.bn, down by 18% y-o-y, Group EBITDA at EUR 250m, up by 11% y-o-y and Net Profits also up by 5% y-o-y to EUR 150m.

Intrakat FY23 results out

Intrakat announced increased sales of EUR 412m in 2023 (up by 83% y-o-y), EBITDA at EUR 16m (compared to losses of EUR 3m in 2022) and Net profits of EUR 3m (vs. losses of EUR 24m a year ago). Construction backlog (INTRAKAT & AKTOR, including projects to be signed) shaped at the historic high of EUR 4.9bn, while bank debt in 2023-end dropped by EUR 5m y-o-y to EUR 123m, following the EUR 100m SCI proceeds which more than offset the increased capex of EUR 123m, EUR 66m of which for the acquisition of AKTOR. The Company currently holds a Portfolio of 2.7 GW of renewable energy projects jointly with its strategic partner PPC. Finally, during yesterday’s conference call, the management said that Intrakat aims to win 20% of the 20 tender processes it participates, and with respect to construction, it targets to maintain a 10% gross profit in 2024e.

Ideal Holdings disposed crown corks business for EUR 136.0m

Ideal Holdings announced yesterday that through its subsidiary SICC Limited, signed an agreement to sell 100% of Astir Vitogiannis S.A. to Guala Closures and 74.99% of Coleus Packaging (pty) Limited for a EV of EUR 136.0m or 7.2x EV/Adj. EBITDA23. The crown corks sector (Astir, Coleus) generated revenues of EUR 75.0m, Adj. EBITDA  of EUR 19.0m, EBT of EUR 16.0m and had a net debt position of EUR 15.0m in 2023.  Completion of the transaction is expected in H2 2024 and is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals. Management will host a CC today at 12:00 Athens/10:00 London Time. IN our view, the move is exceptional, as on one hand the group divests from the crown corks business and on the other is strengthening its liquidity position and firepower to proceed with new acquisitions. Recall that management has officially announced its intention to proceed with new acquisitions in the IT sector. Post the disposal, Ideal Group has presence in IT (Byte, Adacom, Ideal Electronics, Metrosoft) and Retail sectors (Attica Department Stores). We remain positive on the stock.

Aegean Airlines targets Africa (press)

According to reports, Aegean aims to add flights to Africa and more specifically to Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria where there is a strong Greek and Cypriot business presence (over EUR 5b).

Sarantis 1Q24 Trading update out today

Sarantis is set to release its 1Q24 results today before the market opening

GEKTERNA will repeat the bondholders meetings

GEKTERNA announced that, since the today’s meeting didn’t reach the necessary quorum, will repeat on 26 April the meeting with its bondholders of the EUR 120m note issued in 2018 and the EUR 500m note issued in 2020 to a) extend their consent, for an additional 24 months, regarding the utilization of net proceeds from the sale of an Excluded Asset, b) approve the abolishment of the undertaking to maintain the “Total Debt to Equity Ratio” for the “Calculation Periods” after 31.12.2023 and (c) to approve the increase of the maximum amount of the Company’s “Financial Liabilities” from EUR 1.1bn to EUR 1bn.

Alpha Trust Holdings FY23 results out

The company posted its results yesterday. In more detail, revenues reached EUR 8.5m up by 20.5% y-o-y vs. EUR 7.0m in FY22. EBITDA reached EUR 2.1m vs. EUR 1.1m in FY22 posting an 86.0% y-o-y increase with an improved EBITDA margin of 25.4% vs. 16.5% last year. Finaly net profit jumped by 161.5% y-o-y at EUR 1.3m vs. EUR 0.5m in FY22.

Viokarpet Sustainability Report

Viokarpet published its sustainability report which shows that Scope1 and Scope 2 emissions have been reduced by 29% above the target for 15% reduction during FY23. In addition, the group’s electricity needs are covered by 98% from renewable sources and is expected to reach 100% by 2025, while the percentage of recycled aluminium used reached 51% exceeding the target of 50%.

Alpha Trust Andromeda 1Q24 results out today

The company is set to report 1Q24 results today.

Market Comment // The Greek market continued its rally for the fifth consecutive session on Tuesday, with the main index advancing by 1.93% reaching a new 13-year high of 1,447.8 points. Yesterday’s upswing was coupled with strong trading activity, as turnover surged to €159mn, c20% higher than the 100-day avg. Banks led the rally, with the relevant index posting 3.5% gains driven by robust performance in all four banks (NBG: +4%, Alpha: +3.6%, Eurobank: +3.4%, Piraeus Bank: +2.8%). Among non-financials, Titan surged by +4.6%, followed by Intralot (+3.4%), Viohalco (+3.0%), Mytilineos (+2.5%), HTO (+2.3%), and Ideal Holdings (+2.1%), while Sarantis (+1.9%), Quest Holdings (1.8%), PPC (+1.8%), and Hellenic Exchanges (+1.8%) were also among the gainers. Laggards were limited on Tuesday, with Ellaktor slipping 1.3%, followed by Optima (-0.8%), Autohellas (-0.8%) and Lamda Development (-0.7%). Today, markets look poised to extend their run as investor bets gravitate again towards monetary policy easing.

Economy // Greece to tap the markets today according to Bloomberg, through a 30-year bond sale aiming to raise €2-2.5bn. This would be the first 30-year debt issuance since 2021, with the debt management agency seeking to capitalize on the positive sentiment in the aftermath of the recent assessment by S&P. The related yield is likely to settle a bit above 4%, as per Kathimerini. 

Mytilineos // Scheduled to release its Q1’24 results tomorrow, before the opening of the trading session. We anticipate the Group to start the year on the front foot, estimating Q1’24 EBITDA at €246mn, +9% yoy despite the c17% drop in revenue (at €1.1bn), with performance set to be robust at both its main segments.

Sarantis // Sarantis announced solid trading results for Q1’24, a bit above our estimates. Revenues shaped at €141.6m (+29.7%, vs. EEe €139.5m) of which c€20m was a result of the addition of Stella Pack in January. EBIT was also quite robust, totaling €13.6m at group level (+55% yoy) on account of strong operating leverage (organic EBIT €12.2m, vs. EEe €8.8m). Sarantis mgt reiterates the guidance laid out in the investor day in March (FY’24 sales at €595m, EBITDA €80m). 

Ideal Holdings // Ideal announced yesterday an agreement to sell Astir Vitogiannis to “Guala Closures” for an EV of €136m (>7x EV/EBITDA). The monetization of this asset holding at >40% IRR affirms once again Ideal’s deal-making ability and is in sync with its strategy of seeking to extract value through M&A. Mgt will host a call today at 12:00 GR time (+30 210 94 60 800; +30 213 009 6000; +44 (0) 800 368 1063; +44 (0) 203 059 5872; +1 516 447 5632) to provide more granularity on the matter, especially regarding the related deployment of the cash post the closing of the transaction in H2. 

Eurobank // As part of its MREL strategy, Eurobank successfully raised €650mn through the placement of a senior preferred bond with 7 years maturity, callable in 6-years. The yield settled at 5.0% while the offers reached over €1.4bn.

Alpha Trust // Alpha Trust released strong FY23 results, with turnover +20% yoy at €8.5m, EBITDA +86% yoy at €2.16m and net profit more than doubling yoy to €1.3m. The proposed DPS stands at €0.55 per share, indicating 7.3% yield.

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