και οι συναλλαγές παρέµειναν ικανοποιητικές, η συνεδρίαση ήταν µάλλον διαδικαστικού χαρακτήρα µε το εύρος της µεταβλητότητας να είναι µόλις 10 µονάδες (στο 1458 το ενδοσυνεδριακό υψηλό, στο 1448 το ενδοσυνεδριακό χαµηλό). Με τους πωλητές να επιβάλλουν την υπεροπλία τους σε όλη σχεδόν τη διάρκεια οδηγώντας το Γ.∆. σε αρνητικό έδαφος αλλά τους αγοραστές να πετυχαίνουν για λίγα µόνο λεπτά να οδηγούν το Γ.∆. σε θετικό έδαφος, µε τις ευρωπαϊκές αγορές να υποχωρούν. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαµορφώθηκαν στο 3,428%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (-1,50%) κατέγραψε απώλειες µε την Πειραιώς (-3,30%) να υποαποδίδει. Απώλειες ακόµη κατέγραψε ο ΟΠΑΠ (-1,51%), η Infoquest (-2,19%), η ∆ΕΗ (-0,88%), ο ΟΤΕ (-0,90%) και η Lamda (-0,43%). Στον αντίποδα, κέρδη κατέγραψαν τα ΕΛΠΕ (+2,37%), η Cenergy (+1,95%), η ΕΕΕ (+0,93%), ο Ελλάκτωρ (+1,15%) αλλά και η Profile (+1,96%). Απολογιστικά, 46 µετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 54 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Εθνική και Πειραιώς επιβεβαίωσαν τις αισιόδοξες προσδοκίες µε τις ανακοινώσεις των αποτελεσµάτων τους για το 1ο τρίµηνο. Η επιβεβαίωση της στήριξης των 1448 µονάδων δηµιουργεί προϋποθέσεις για κίνηση του Γ.∆. προς τις 1460 µονάδες, ενώ την ίδια ώρα, ο Πάουελ δηλώνει ότι είναι αβέβαιος ο χρόνος µείωσης των επιτοκίων.
αντλήθηκαν €625 εκ.Austriacard: placement για το 15%, τιµή µεταξύ €6,00 έως €6,10, µε έκπτωση ως 9,1% ως προς την τιµή κλεισίµατος της 29/4/2024.Ideal Holdings: στα €8 η εύλογη αξία της αναφέρει η Eurobank Equities.
Sunlight: Στο 1,08 δισ. ευρώ εκτινάχθηκαν τα έσοδα του οµίλου από 416,5 εκατ. στην προηγούµενη χρήση, +161,2%. Tα κέρδη σηµείωσαν επίσης αξιοσηµείωτη βελτίωση κατά 141%.
ΕΛΣΤΑΤ: στο -0,1% ο ∆είκτης Τιµών Παραγωγού στη Βιοµηχανία τον Μάρτιο, στο -9,8% ο όγκος πωλήσεων λιανεµπορίου τον Φεβρουάριο.
Reds: Στο 96,06% το ποσοστό της Ελλάκτωρ. Προηγουµένως το ποσοστό του Ελλάκτωρα στην Reds ανερχόταν στο 55,4563%.
Πειραιώς 1ο τρίµηνο: Τα καθαρά έσοδα από τόκους διαµορφώθηκαν σε €518 εκατ., +16%. Καθαρά έσοδα από προµήθειες στα €145 εκατ., αυξηµένα κατά 19%. Στο 3,5% ο δείκτης NPE. Τα κέρδη ανήλθαν σε €233 εκ., +29,44%. Jefferies: αυξάνει την τιµή-στόχο στα €5,25 Εθνική 1ο τρίµηνο: κέρδη µ.φ. στα €358 εκ., +38%. Ο δείκτης ΜΕΑ διαµορφώθηκε σε 3,7% σε επίπεδο οµίλου. Ο δείκτης CET1 στο 18,6%.
Coca-Cola HBC: Αυξηµένα 12,6% τα καθαρά έσοδα από πωλήσεις το Q1.
Intracom: Κέρδη 18,3 εκατ. ευρώ το 2023, µέρισµα €0,12/µετοχή. Ρευστότητα €162,8 εκ. Αξία συµµετοχών σε εισηγµένες €122,7 εκ.
Interlife: Τα Κέρδη προ φόρων ανήλθαν σε 17,29 εκατ.€ . έναντι ζηµιών 0,93 εκατ.€ το 2022.
Βογιατζόγλου: Κέρδη 1,6 εκατ. ευρώ το 2023, αύξηση τζίρου 8,35%. Στα 37,6 εκατ. ευρώ διαµορφώθηκαν τα έσοδα.
ATHEX headed south on Tuesday, outperforming the European markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 0.48% at 1,448.48 units, (FTSE Large Cap: -0.61%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.11%, Banks Index: -1.50%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 196.5m, up from Monday’s EUR 115.6m. We expect a positive session on low volumes today, with National Bank of Greece in the spotlight. ATHEX will be closed tomorrow, next Monday and Tuesday due to the Orthodox Easter.
Macro Headlines
Greece submits the Stability programme for 2024-25e
The Ministry of finance officially submitted the updated stability programme for 2024-25e, which envisages GDP growth of 2.5% for 2024e (lower compared to the latest budget estimate of +2.9%) and 2.6% for 2025e. Inflation is expected to decelerate to 2.6% in 2024e (reiterating the latest state budget estimates) and to 2.0% in 2025e. Additionally, according to the Stability Programme, the primary balance is projected at +2.1% of GDP in 2024e and 2025e, which in turn should lower the general government debt/GDP to 152.7% at the end of 2024e (previous estimate at 152.2%) and further down to 146.3% in 2025e.
Central government budget execution January-March 2024 (final data)
Facts: According to the final MoF data for the central government budget execution on a modified cash basis in January-March 2024, the central government budget recorded a EUR 44m deficit (downwards revised from EUR 77m preliminary data) vs. a targeted deficit of EUR 817m (based on the 2024 Budget introductory report) and a EUR 220m surplus in the same period in 2023. On a primary basis, the budget recorded a EUR 2,987m surplus in Jan-March 2024 (upwards revised from EUR 2,954 preliminary data) vs. a targeted surplus of EUR 2,133m and a EUR 3,079 surplus in the same period in 2023.
Greek HICP decelerates in April (Eurostat)
According to a flash estimate from Eurostat, Greek annual inflation is expected to shape at 3.2% in April, lower compared to 3.4% March and above the respective EU area figure (unchanged at 2.4% in April).
PPI in industry slightly drops in March (ELSTAT)
According to ELSTAT, Producer Price Index in Industry (PPI) dropped by 0.1% y-o-y in March 2024, driven by the price decreases in intermediate goods (-2.0% y-o-y), while higher producer prices were gauged in non-durable consumer goods (+5.7% y-o-y;). In the April 2023-March 2024 period, Producer Price Index in Industry (PPI) decreased by 8.4% in comparison with the corresponding index for the period from April 2022 to March 2023.
Retail Sales down in February (ELSTAT)
According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority, retail sales (excluding automotive fuel) decreased by 2.3% y-o-y in February 2024 (while decreased by 8.0% y-o-y in volume terms), while including automotive fuel, retail sales decreased by 3.8% y-o-y. Per main store category, the turnover of the Food sector decreased by 0.4% y-o-y, driven by higher prices while sales volume were down by (5.8% y-o-y), while Non-food sector (except automotive fuel) sales decreased by 3.8% y-o-y with sales volume also down by 21.4% y-o-y. Finally, the turnover of the Automotive fuel sector decreased by 11.0% y-o-y, with sales volume also down by 9.7% y-o-y.
Greece sells 3-month T-bills at 3.67%
The Greek State raised EUR 812.5m yesterday from the issuance of 13-week T-bills. In more detail, the total amount auctioned was EUR 625m, while total bids reached EUR 1,031m (1.65x coverage ratio vs. 1.59x in January) for an interest rate of 3.67% (vs. 3.75% in the previous auction).
Company Headlines
Piraeus Financial Holdings || Rating: Buy | CP: EUR 3.7750 | TP: EUR 5.00
1Q2024 Results Review | A good quarter in line with FY guidance despite the NII hit by hedging cost
Optima View | Piraeus delivered a good set of results that beat Optima but missed consensus estimates, as NII came in below expectations burdened by non- maturing deposit hedging cost. Nonetheless, 1Q24 normalized EPS reached EUR 0.21, in line with FY guidance of EUR 0.80 and our estimate for EUR 0.81. The stock is trading 0.69x P/TBV24E, at 36% discount to European banks and 19% discount to its Greek peers. We reiterate our Buy rating and Target Price of EUR 5.00/share, implying a 28% upside potential.
P&L | 1Q24 reported net profit came in at EUR 233.1m (+10% q-o-q, +30% y-o-y), beating Optima estimate of EUR 219.9m (+6%) but missed consensus estimate of EUR 239.0m. NII reached EUR 517.6m (-4% q-o-q, +16% y-o-y), missing Optima (-3%) and consensus (-2%) estimates, due to non-maturing deposit hedging cost of EUR 21m. Excluding the hedging cost, NII would come in at EUR 539.0m, higher than expectations. NIM squeezed by 6bps q-o-q to 2.71%, whilst PE yield was marginally lower at 6.55% (-0.02% q-o-q) in 1Q24, with the loan pass-through at 78% and total deposits cost at 0.53% (+0.02% q-o-q), with the beta at 14% vs. 13% in 4Q23. Fee income landed at record EUR 145.3m (+1% q-o-q, +19% y-o-y), in line with Optima and broadly in line with consensus estimate of EUR 142.0m. Non-core revenues stood at EUR -71.1m vs. EUR +41.7m in 4Q23, higher than Optima estimate of EUR -43.0m and consensus estimate of EUR -16.0m. Total revenues came in at EUR 591.9m (-18% q-o-q, +3% y-o-y), lower than Optima (-7%) and consensus (-8%) estimates. OpEx stood at EUR 202.4m (-22% q-o-q, -2% y-o-y), in line with Optima and consensus estimates. Normalized net profit (excluding one-offs) was shaped at EUR 279.3m (-14% q-o-q, +37% y-o-y).
Dividend | Piraeus submitted to the ECB in mid-April the application for dividend distribution from 2023 net profit, amounting to EUR 80.0m (EUR ca0.064/share).
Asset quality | LLPs reached EUR 58.5m (-44% q-o-q, -39% y-o-y), lower than Optima (-37%) and consensus estimates (-44%), due to lower underlying LLPs and inorganic losses. Organic CoR was shaped at 51bps, lower than FY guidance of 80bps. Organic NPE formation was slightly positive (EUR +26.2m) and group NPEs narrowed slightly (EUR -26.7m q-o-q) to EUR 1.303m. The NPE ratio was flattish q-o-q at 3.5% and the NPE cash coverage squeezed to 60.2% from 61.6% in 4Q23.
Capital | Tangible equity rose by EUR 238.4m q-o-q to EUR ca6.59bn and TBVPS increased to EUR 5.27 vs. EUR 5.08 in 4Q23. Normalized RoaTBV stood at 16.5%. Pro-forma FL CET1 widened further to 13.7% vs. 13.3% in 4Q23, assuming a div. payout of 10% for 2023 and 25% for 2024. Investment securities increased by EUR 532.1m q-o-q to EUR ca13.6bn.
Balance sheet | Performing loans decreased by EUR 141.3m q-o-q to EUR ca30.0bn. Deposits also dropped by EUR 976.0m q-o-q to EUR 58.6bn, o/w core depos slipped by EUR 777.5m and time depos by EUR 198.4m q-o-q. Group time deposits accounted for 22.7% of the deposit base (flat q-o-q). LDR squeezed to 62.1% vs. 63.0% in 4Q23.
CC Highlights
- Lower deposit beta on NII and lower organic CoR entail upside risks on profitability. Expect another quarter to upgrade FY guidance.
- Confirmed net credit expansion FY target of EUR 1.6bn on the back of strong pipeline. Loan portfolio is performing in line with the FY target.
- Extra capital deductions of EUR 200m-230m until the end of 2026 due to State Guaranteed exposures won’t affect capital targets. No P&L impact.
- FY Hedging cost estimated at EUR 80m or EUR 20 per quarter.
- They monitor the re-performing loans market and looking for opportunities but the number 1 priority is to protect the NPE ratio (3.5%).
- The dividend approval process is running smoothly and expect the AGM to approve the distribution of EUR 80m or EUR 0.064 per share.
National Bank of Greece || Rating: Buy | CP: EUR 7.56 | TP: EUR 9.20
1Q2024 Results Review | Robust quarter points to FY upgrade, reiterate BUY
Optima View | NBG reported a robust set of 1Q24 results that beat both Optima and consensus estimates on higher than expected fee income and non-core revenues as well as lower provisions and tax. Moreover, 1Q24 core PAT reached EUR 320.0m, indicating that the bank will exceed FY target of EUR 1.2bn. Following the robust set of results, we will revise upwards our estimates and TP. The stock is trading 0.93x P/TBV24e, at 13% discount to EU peers, which is unjustified in our view, given its higher RoTE (RoaTBV of 14.7% vs. 13.0% of EU banks). We reiterate our Buy recommendation.
P & L | Net profit came in at EUR 358.1m (+14% q-o-q, +38% y-o-y), 13% above Optima estimate of EUR 318.0m and 9% above consensus estimate of EUR 328.5m. Net interest income reached EUR 605.5m (-3% q-o-q, +22% y-o-y), in line with Optima and consensus estimate of EUR 600.0m. PE yield stood at 6.1% from 6.2% in 4Q23, with pass through at 70%, whilst deposit cost at 0.45% from 0.43% in 4Q23. NIM squeezed by 11bps q-o-q to 3.26%. Fee income came in at EUR 99.6m (-9% q-o-q, +15% y-o-y) beating Optima and consensus estimates. Core income reached EUR 705.1m (-4% q-o-q, +21% y-o-y). Non-core revenues landed at EUR 59.8m (+99% q-o-q, +19% y-o-y), well above expectations. Revenues shaped at EUR 764.9m (+0.3% q-o-q, +21% y-o-y), beating Optima and consensus estimates. Opex reached EUR 210.8m (-10% q-o-q, +5% y-o-y), in line with expectations. Hence, pre-provision profit came in at EUR 554.1m (+5% q-o-q, +28% y-o-y), beating expectations. LLPs and other impairments stood at EUR 55.1m (+16% q-o-q, -2% y-o-y), 2% below Optima estimate of EUR 56.4m and 7% below consensus estimate of EUR 59.0m. Organic CoR was shaped at 55bps, lower than FY guidance of <65bps.
Asset quality | Group NPEs increased slightly (EUR +2.7m q-o-q) to EUR 1.288m, with Greek NPEs at EUR 1.214m (EUR +14.0m q-o-q). The NPE ratio was flattish q-o-q at 3.7% and the NPE cash coverage narrowed to 86.1% from 87.5% in 4Q23.
Capital | Tangible equity rose by EUR 315.5m q-o-q to EUR 7,417m and TBVPS increased to EUR 8.11 vs. EUR 7.76 in 4Q23. RoaTBV widened to 19.7% vs. 18.1% in 4Q23. FL CET1 shaped at 18.6% from 17.8% in 4Q23. State guarantee exposure capital deduction at EUR 100m. RWAs decreased by EUR 500.0m q-o-q to EUR 37.2bn.
Balance sheet | Group performing loans decreased by EUR 300.0m q-o-q at EUR 30.2bn. The approved not yet disbursed corporate pipeline stands at EUR 2.9b (post April) and retail disbursements have gathered pace to EUR 400m, driven by SBs and consumer loans, fully offsetting repayments across the retail book (flat PEs qoq) for the first time in many years. Deposits also decreased by EUR 1.5bn q-o-q to EUR 55.6bn. Time deposits fell by EUR 271.9m q-o-q to EUR 10.2bn and accounted for 19.0% of the base (flat q-o-q). LDR widened to 59.9% from 58.2% in 4Q23. NBG fully repaid TLTRO (EUR 1.9bn). Finally, investment securities increased by EUR 276.3m q-o-q to EUR 17.5bn (24.1% of assets).
Conference call highlights
- They wait for the answer of SSM about 2023 dividend distribution (proposed DPS of EUR 0.36) by the beginning of June.
- Management confirmed net credit expansion target, as the approved not yet disbursed corporate pipeline stands at €2.9bn (post April).
- NBG has fully repaid TLTRO (EUR 1.9bn).
- Hedging cost amounted to EUR 16.0m in 1Q, in line with our estimate.
- Don’t expect a significant increase in fixed income portfolio. They hedge long-maturity bonds.
- State guarantee exposures capital deduction at EUR 100m in 1Q. They don’t expect to exceed EUR 150-200m. Guidance and BP targets have taken into account this treatment.
- Avg. spread at 2% in new disbursements.
- Management expects upside risk to derive from a) slower than expected interest rate cuts, b) repayments on the corporate side and c) lower CoR-provisions.
DBRS assigned NBG investment grade status, buyback of MREL Notes due May 2025
National Bank of Greece announced that Morningstar DBRS has assigned a Long-Term Issuer Rating of BBB (low), rendering the bank the first to regain Investment grade status after nearly 15 years since the onset of the Greek Financial Crisis. Furthermore, NBG has commenced the call option exercise process with respect to all outstanding EUR 150.0m Fixed Rate Resettable Unsubordinated MREL Notes due 25 May 2025 issued on 25 November 2022. The notes will be redeemed at par and accrued but unpaid interest will be payable.
Motor Oil completed the transfer of treasury shares to company executives
Motor Oil announced that following the transfer of 182,120 treasury shares to company executives, the number of treasury stock shares amounts to 2.26% of its share capital.
Aegean Airlines AGM approved dividend of EUR 0.75 per share
The AGM approved the dividend distribution of EUR 0.75/share (DY: 6.1%) with the ex-dividend date set for Monday 20 May.
Aegean Airlines stock award plan
The company offered to executives an employee of the company a total of 66,776 shares with total value of EUR 825,339 through an OTC transaction on 29 April. After the distribution, the company owns 174,725 shares or 0.194% of the total share capital.
ELLAKTOR controls 96.07% of REDS
ELLAKTOR announced that following the acquisition of a 38.78% stake in REDS from Reggenborgh and an additional 1.824% through ATHEX, it extended its participation in the company’s share capital to 96.0684%.
ElvalHalcor AGM on 23 May
ElvalHalcor will hold its AGM on 23 May to approve among others the distribution of a EUR 0.04/share dividend (DY: 2.1%, ex-date 25 June) and a share buyback programme.
Market Comment // Greek stocks ended slightly lower (-0.48%) on Tuesday, closing at 1,448.48 points. On a monthly basis the ASE General Index increased +1.8%. In terms of trading activity, turnover on Tuesday surged to €196m, significantly higher vs the 100-day moving average of €134m, boosted by Austriacard’s placement. Piraeus Bank (-3.3%), Quest (-2.2%) led laggards, with Alpha Bank, OPAP, NBG, Motodynamiki and Papoutsanis also posting losses >1. On the other hand, HelleniQ Energy (+2.7%) led gains, followed by Profile, Aegean, Ellaktor, Cenergy and Intrakat with mild gains (<1%). Today, futures point to a negative opening as investors digest the Fed’s comments, which appear less hawkish than what markets were expecting. We remind that the Greek market will remain closed on Friday 3rd and Monday 6th May for the Orthodox Easter Holidays, and on Tuesday 7th May due to the transfer of the May Day holiday.
Piraeus Bank // Q1 results below our and consensus estimates, with adj.net profit at €279m (vs cons of €295m) on lower-than-expected core revenues due to hedging costs and non-core income offsetting the record fee generation and effective cost containment. However, the Adj. RoTBV for Q1’24 stood at 16.5%, surpassing the 2024 target of 14%. The FL CET1 ratio proforma for the RWA relief from forthcoming NPE sales reached 13.7%, including provisions for a 25% dividend payout. Additionally, the NPE ratio remained stable q/q at 3.5%.
NBG // Q1 results above our and consensus estimates, with net profit from cont.ops at €380m (vs cons of €343m) on higher-than-expected core revenues non-core income. The Q1 Core RoTE for Q1’24 stood at 17.6%, surpassing the 2024 target of c15%. The FL CET1 settled at 18.6%, with strong profitability pushing CET1 +c80bps higher q/q including a dividend provision of 20bps. Additionally, the NPE ratio remained stable q/q at 3.7%.
Terna Energy // In the conference call following the FY’23 results, management reiterated the target for >6GW of installed capacity by 2030, guiding for 610MW of additions in 2024/2025. Moreover, management also guided for a 40% yoy increase in production in Q1’24, boosted by an improved blended load factor and the full operation of the Kafireas park.
GEK Terna – PPC // In GEK Terna’s conference call management officially confirmed that the Group has signed an agreement with PPC for the lease and transfer of the former’s 147MW OCGT unit (currently situated in Thiva) in order to cover Crete’s electric power deficit. The deal embodies a 2-year lease (until the end of 2025) with an embedded option for PPC to acquire the unit at the end of the lease.
Austriacard // Chairman N. Lykos and a group of minority shareholders completed a private placement for the sale of 15.05% of Austriacard shares (of which c6.05% owned by N. Lykos) on April 30th. The price range was set at €6.00-€6.10 per share, a c7.6-9.1% discount vs. April 29th close. All shares were sold at the lower end of the range.
Αegean // Shareholders approved all items on the agenda in the AGM on April 30th, among which a proposed gross DPS of €0.75 (net €0.71/share, 6.0% div. yield). The shares will trade ex-dividend on Monday, May 20th (payment starts May 27th).
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.