Tuesday, June 07, 2022- Market Monitor- Market Comment- In the Spotlight by BETA SECURITIES

Stocks ended slightly higher, tracking gains in Europe. Still, activity remained subdued, which was mirrored by the day’s light volumes. Refineries was in the spotlight ahead of Motor Oil’s results and positive refining environment.

General Index closed at 900.28 points, the highest in five weeks, adding 0.38% to Friday’s 896.89 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 0.30%, ending at 2,182.23 points. The banks index advanced 0.76%, with Alpha rising 0.98%, Piraeus climbing 0.85%, National grabbing 0.82% and Eurobank collecting 0.52%.  Coca-Cola HBC dominated activity with its 2.70% ascent and Hellenic Petroleum earned 2.13%, as Quest Holdings parted with 2.64%. In total 56 stocks secured gains, 56 endured losses, and 49 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to €48.4 almost flat vs. last Friday’s €49.1m.

As international markets start lower we expect domestic market to follow. Q1:22 GDP announcement will also weight.

In the Spotlight

MOH (Results Q1:22 review): Motor Oil posted a strong set of Q1:22 results coming ahead of consensus estimates. Underlying profitability came at €193m, the best quarterly read in the history of MOH. In more details:

§  Reported EBITDA came at in €318 million euros, up from 82 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 120 million euros in the corresponding period last year. Excluding inventory one offs (€125m) operating earnings totaled €189m, up from 72 million in Q4:21 and €80m in the Q1:21. Note that adj. EBITDA came higher by 34% vs consensus estimates while adj. net profits were also a strong beat by a smashing 86.4%.

§  Improvements were evident across the board with refining generating a record €148m EBITDA (+151% y-o-y), marketing reaching €33m (+65% y-o-y) while RES and power Gas segment contributed a decent €13m in the quarter on the back of higher RES installed capacity (279MW vs 59Mw in Q1:21) and higher stake in retail. Below the EBITDA line minority stake in Korinthos Power contributed another €9m in Q1:22 performance. Refining captured the positive refining environment in light and Mid cracks assisted also by favorable Basrah Medium vs. Brend crude diffrentials which account for c54% of MOH’s Q1:22 feedstock diet. For one more quarter exports accounted for 77% of the total sales.

§  Net profits jumped to €197m in the first quarter of 2022, from 65 million in the same period last year.

§  On the flip side Net debt increased by 21% q-o-q (€1.756bn vs, €1.45bn) was affected by significant Working Capital needs (inventory up by €0.5bn) and investments in RES. Power and Gas Segment net debt increased to €412m vs €364m in Q4:21 while Marketing added another €59m of net debt in the quarter reaching €532m.

§  Overall a strong start for the year and a more promising quarter to come as benchmark margins trading at unprecedented high levels. We expect operating cash flow to start lowering net debt yet we point out the capital needs for the acquisitions of c30% of Ellaktor and 75% of Anemos and remaining dividend for the year (0.70 eur/share). Motor oil will comfortably beat the €510m consensus estimate of EBITDA leaving significant room for a positive re-rating.

In other news on June 3, Motor Oil Holdings bought 3,000 shares for a total consideration of €52.840K (€17.62/share).

  • The following table summarise consensus estimates:

Motor oil

2021

2021

2022

Δ (%)

2022

Δ (%)

(in m Eur.)

Q1

Q4

Q1

Υ-ο-Υ

Q1

vs Est.

Sales Volumes (MTx1000)

3,289

3,306

3,371

2.5%

3,450

-2.3%

Sales

1,887.0

3,123.0

3,258.0

72.7%

2,760

18.0%

EBITDA

129.0

82.0

318.0

146.5%

253.0

25.7%

Adj. EBITDA

80.0

72.0

193.0

141.3%

144.0

34.0%

of Which Refining

59.0

50.0

148.0

150.8%

116.0

27.6%

of which Fuel Marketing

20.0

19.0

33.0

65.0%

22.0

50.0%

of Which Power & Gas

1.5

1.0

13.0

766.7%

5.0

Other & Eliiminations

0.0

2.0

0.0

1.0

Net Earnings

65.0

-3.0

189.0

190.8%

154.0

22.7%

Adj. Net Earnings

28.0

-11.0

123.0

339.3%

66.0

86.4%

Conference Call details 07/06, 17:30 GR-Time:

§  GR: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 946 0800

§  UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§  USA: +1 516 447 5632

§  Other International participants: +44 (0) 203 059 5872

PPC: PPC’s market share in the retail segment dropped further in May, to 63.4%, down 0.3% m-o-m, data from the Energy Exchange showed. Mytilineos’ Protergia maintained its lead among independent retailers, with a 7.34% share, followed by Heron, 6.89% and Elpedison 6.49%. Recall that PPC management had stated that it expects market share in the retail segment to fall to 54% by 2023. Data from the Energy Exchange also showed that the monthly average Clearing Price stood at 225.1 euros/MWh, down by 21.5 3uros/MWh m-o-m and up by 161.9 euros/MWh y-o-y. Also, total electricity demand was 4,181GWh, up by 5.3% y-o-y.

ALPHA TRUST ANDROMEDA: NAV as of end May 2022 stood at €7.9696/share vs a stock market price of €7/share implying a 12.2% discount over NAV. On June 3, the company bought 1,000 shares at €6.9379/share for a total consideration of €6.949K. Total treasury at 39,607 shares (2.47% of share capital) at an average acquisition price of €6.17/share.

TERNA ENERGY: ICAP affirms an AA rating on the company’s debt.

REVOIL: New €4.2mn bond loan to refinance company’s current debt obligations.

TECHNICAL OLYMPIC: Over the period May 30 to June 3, the company bought 30,203 shares for a total consideration of €52.511K (€1.74/share). Total treasury at 249,990 shares or 0.61433% of share capital.

TITAN: Over the period May 30 to June 3, the company bought 37,562 shares at €12.4676/share for a total amount of €468.308K. Total treasury at 2,287,723 shares or 2.92% of share capital.

IKTINOS: On June 3, major shareholder and BOD member Mrs L. Haida bought 5,000 shares for a total consideration of €2.775K (€0.555/share).

MYTILINEOS: On June 3, the company bought 18,000 shares at €16.9795/share for a total amount of €305.632K. Total treasury 4,557,178 shares or 3.1893% % of share capital.

PROFILE: Ex-date for stock split (1 new share for every one old held) set on June 8. Record date June 9. New shares to start trading on June 14.

EKTER: Over the period June 2 to June 3, the company bought 5,700 shares for a total consideration of €6.062K (€1.063/share). Total treasury at 126,991 shares or 1.129% of share capital.

IDEAL HOLDINGS: On June 3, the company bought 4,000 shares at €3.63/share for a total consideration of €14.520K. Total treasury stands at 159,622 shares or 0.5071% of share capital.

BLUE KERDOS: REIT IPO runs between June 6 to June 8 at a price range €2.18-€2.45/share with the offering of 7.2mn shares. 30% of the IPO will be placed with private investors and 70% with special investors.