To xρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του μικρομέτοχου (27.8.2020)

    Market Comment 

A four-session slide which had taken the Athens Stock Exchange 2.62% lower was brought to an end yesterday with the GI returning to gains of 1%. Still, turnover remained below €30 million.

 

ASE GI closed at 635.84 points, up 1.03%, having risen as much as 1.38% during the session. The index traded within a band of just inside 11 points; it started the session with losses, but reversed course after 12 a.m. Blue chips rose 0.96% with FTSE 25 shaping at 1,523.25 points and mid-caps ended 0.31% higher to 833.49 points. Among the blue chips, the biggest gains were posted by Terna Energy (4.42%), PPC (2.83%), Alpha Bank (2.53%), Athens water company EYDAP (2.29%), National Bank (2.25%) and Mytilineos (2.25%). The biggest losses were sustained by Fourlis (0.73%), Piraeus Bank (0.66%), Jumbo (0.54%) and electricity distributor ADMIE (0.45%). Among the sectoral indices, the biggest gainers were Utilities (2.58%) and Banks (1.40%), while losses were sustained by Health (2.71%) and Commerce (0.53%).

 

Of the 114 traded shares, 61 ended with gains, 32 with losses and 21 with no change. Turnover was €29.28 million compared to €26.5mn on Tuesday. Total volume traded reached 13,267,248 shares.

 

Agenda today focuses on the corporate front with both Alpha Bank and Hellenic Petroleum reporting their quarterly results after market close. Geopolitical tensions remain in place which coupled with economic growth worries as the results of the pandemic evolution puts investors on a wait and see stance on the sidelines. Volatility with sideways movement is the theme for another day with international markets dictating the trend for domestic equities as well.

 

  In the Spotlight

 

Greece/PDMA: During the auction of € 625mn of 26W T-Bills conducted yesterday, the total bids reached €984mn and the amount finally accepted was €812.5mn. Weaker demand with coverage ratio reaching 1.57x (2.83x in the previous auction) with yield at 0% (0.02% in July auction). The government has accepted non-competitive bids of 30% of the initially offered amount of €625mn during the auction and may accept another 30% by Thursday, August 27. Settlement will take place on Aug. 28.

 

Greece/Economy: Greece is reportedly considering tapping bond markets with a new 5-year year bond issue in by the end of October, aiming at drawing between €1.5bn to €2.5bn. Greece has raised a total of €4.5bn so far in 2020 through 15 and 7-year syndicated bonds since the beginning of the year.

 

Greece/Economy: The government has announced further relief measures to mitigate COVID 19 economic impact. In specific deferrals of tax and social security monthly payments will be extended to March 2021, as part of the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, and they will have to be paid in 12 instalments without interest or in 24 with a fixed interest, Finance Minister Staikouras said. Staikouras added that there will be the best possible fiscal interventions in next year’s budget to mitigate the pandemic impact on households and businesses, including some tax reductions.

 

Greece/Budget Execution: Finance Ministry officials have reportedly revised to the worse budget projections, with primary deficit seen in the tune of 5% of GDP, while they expect the total budget deficit to reach €14 to €15 billion euros, or around 8% of the country’s GDP. Tourism revenues are seen at around €3 to €5 billion euros, lower than earlier estimates calling for some €7 to €8 billion euros.

 

PPC: The company will report H1’20 financial result son September 3rd after market close.

 

OTE: Over the period August 21 to August 25 the company bought 141,414 own shares at €13.6/share for a total consideration f €1.922mn.

 

MLS: New audited accounts for FY’19 to be submitted by September 10th to HCMC and published 4 weeks later.

 

ATTICA BANK: On 25.08.2020, 63,758,540 common shares of the Bank were transferred from the Electronic Unified Social Security Fund’s (e-EFKA) portfolio to the Greek Engineers and Public Works Contractors Fund’s (TMEDE) portfolio. After the transfer, the percentage of total voting rights arising from the Bank’s shares held by e-EFKA in the Bank amounts to 32.34% of common registered shares, while the percentage of total voting rights arising from the Bank’s shares held by TMEDE in the Bank amounts to 46.32 % of common registered shares respectively.

 

ALPHA BANK: Alpha Bank (Q2:20 results preview): Alpha Bank is set to announce Q2:20 results today after market hours followed by a conference call. We expect a profitable quarter on the back of normalization in provisioning and significant trading gains from GGB’s. In more details:

 

§   Repricing of deposits and lower cost of funding from ECB will support NII which is forecasted at €389m up 2.1% q-o-q. Alpha bank has increased its ECB exposures to €9.3bn in May from €3.9bn at March while repo balances were almost halved (€3.4bn from €6.5bn).On the other hand fee income is expected lower by 10% q-o-q. The bank is expected to post significant trading and other income in the tune of €120m in line with management statement in Q1:20 conf. call for H1:20 total trading income of 200m. Operating cost is expected flattish at €262m. All in, Alpha is expected to post Q2:20 Pre-Provision-Income of 327m up 6.7% q-o-q.

§   Following FY:20 guidance for CoR 180-190bps we see LLP’s to shape at €232m vs. 307.4m in Q1:20. On our estimate we increased by €30m our forecast following NBG’s and Piraeus additional loan impairments accounting on GDP contraction. Another €10m assets/collateral impairments should land PBT at €85m vs. losses of €9m in Q1:20. Finally net profit from continuous operations should come at €60m.

§   On the Asset quality we expect a neutral quarter on zero NPE formation. Alpha Bank CET -1 and FL B3 CET1 should remain at 16.5% and 14% respectively.

§   Main theme in the conference call will be Galaxy securitisation. Note that Alpha Bank in an announcement said that is accelerating Galaxy NPE securitization. Galaxy consists of three NPE securitizations under the code names Orion, Galaxy II and Galaxy IV with a total gross book value of €10.8bn. On August 6 Alpha submitted an application under the Hercules Asset Protection Scheme for the Orion and Galaxy II securitizations with gross book value of € 1.9bn and €5.7bn respectively. The application relates to the provision of a guarantee by the Greek State on the senior notes of an amount up to €3.04bn. The application for Galaxy IV will follow soon thereafter.

§   Alpha Bank trades at 0.11x its TBV or at a 0.17x post Galaxy securitisation.

 

The following table summarize our Q2:20 estimates:

 

Alpha Bank

 

 

 

Latest read

Overview

(In Million Euro)

2Q19

1Q20

2Q20

QoQ

YoY

NII

388.6

381.2

389.0

2.1%

0.1%

Fee income

81.2

89.2

80.0

-10.3%

-1.5%

Trading

123.7

85.7

110.0

28.3%

-11.1%

Other Income

10.9

9.9

10.0

 

 

Total income

604.4

566.0

589.0

4.1%

-2.5%

Operating costs

-281.7

-259.0

-262.0

-1.2%

7.0%

Pre-provision-profits

322.7

307.0

327.0

6.5%

1.3%

Provisions

-246.0

-307.4

-232.0

24.5%

5.7%

Other results

-9

-9.0

-10.0

-10.7%

-16.3%

PBT

68.1

-9.4

85.0

1001.8%

24.8%

Corporate taxes

8.7

1.5

24.7

1543.3%

183.3%

Net profit (continued)

59

-11

60

652.4%

1.6%

 

Conference call details (27/8, 17:50 GR-Time):

§   Greece: + 30 211 180 2000

§   UK (local & International) + 44 (0) 203 059 5872

§   UK (TF) + 44 (0) 800 368 1063

§   US: + 1 516 447 5632

 

HELLENIC PETROLEUM: The company will report Q2/H1’20 financial results today after market close with a conference call to follow. We expect another weak quarter, following a similar Q1’20 trading pattern. Weak operating environment with low refining margins prevailing for the whole quarter will impact financial performance. Benchmark margin remained marginally positive for the whole quarter, historically the lowest in the company’s performance.  Pandemic outbreak deteriorated demand (especially for diesel) on all economic activity despite a gradual recovery in gasolines in Q2 amid a recovery and uplifts on mobility.

 

The following table summarize our estimates for Hellenic Petroleum Q2/H1’20 financial performance (on a reported basis):

 

HELLENIC PETROLEUM

2019

2020

Y-o-Y

2019

2020

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

Η1

Η1

(%)

Q2

Q2

(%)

Sales

4,456,629

3,695,000

-17.1% 

2,465,413 

1,776,036 

-28.0% 

EBITDA

319,601

-316,000

-198.9% 

185,348 

100,113 

-46.0% 

EBITDA Mrg

7.2% 

-8.6% 

-1,572 bps 

7.5% 

5.6% 

-188 bps 

Net Income

121,321

-331,000

-372.8% 

74,206 

8,809 

-88.1% 

Net Mrg

2.7% 

-9.0% 

-1,168 bps 

3.0% 

0.5% 

-251 bps 

 

Conference call details (278, 18:00 GR-Time):

§   Greece: + 30 213 009 6000

§   UK + 44 (0) 800 368 1063

§   US: + 1 516 447 5632

Kind Regards,

Manos Chatzidakis

Head of research

29 Alexandras Avenue

11473 Athens,Greece

Tel: +30 210 6478755/754

Fax:+30 210 6410139

Email: [email protected]


Disclaimer: Beta Securities S.A. 
This e-mail is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you
should not copy it, re-transmit it, use it or disclose its contents, but
should return it to the sender immediately and delete the copy from your
system.

Beta Securities S.A. is not responsible for, nor endorses, any
opinion, recommendation, conclusion, solicitation, offer or agreement or any
information contained in this communication.


Beta Securities S.A.  cannot accept any responsibility for the accuracy or
completeness of this message as it has been transmitted over a public
network. If you suspect that the message may have been intercepted or
amended, please call the sender admin.