Το χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του μικρομέτοχου – Πέμπτη 16 Ιουλίου 2020

Market Comment 

The benchmark at the Greek stock market came out of an eight-week low on Wednesday to post some notable gains and end a streak of eight losing sessions. The rise was mainly fed by non-bank blue chips and came with some help from foreign markets that also staged a rebound.

General index ended at 637.29 points, adding 1.28% to Tuesday’s 629.24 points. The large-cap FTSE 25 index expanded 1.34% to 1,542.46 points.

The banks index collected 1.81%, with Eurobank grabbing 2.73%, National growing 2.54% and Alpha improving 1.31%, as Piraeus declined 0.79%. Coca-Cola HBC surged 4.72%, GEK Terna advanced 3.29%, Sarantis earned 3.12%, Mytilineos augmented 2.05%, OPAP rose 2.03%, Terna Energy climbed 2.02%, both Titan Cement and Aegean Air grew 1.89%, and ADMIE Holdings fetched 1.75%, while OTE telecom lost 2.56%. In total 67 stocks reported gains, 32 suffered losses and 27 remained unchanged. Turnover reached 47.4 million euros, up from Tuesday’s €45.1 million

Domestic market will seek for direction from global markets. The ECB is expected to keep its emergency bond-buying program unchanged although we believe market players would remain reluctant until the official press release takes place. Moreover, heightened tensions between China and US on trade are likely to leave their footprint in the markets. 

   In the Spotlight 

Greece/Budget Execution: State budget posted a primary deficit of €5.86bn in the January-June period, falling short of the initial target which was for €313mn in surplus. The state’s support measures to mitigate the impact from the coronavirus pandemic were behind the deviation.

Still, Alternate Finance Ministrer Skylakakis said that June tax revenues were €102mn above the updated target as submitted to the EU in April but warned of pressures in the tax revenues in the coming months due to the “very deep recession” caused by the pandemic which will hit especially tourism revenues. Preliminary data on a modified cash basis showed that state net revenues underperformed the target by 16% or €3.66bn, amounting to €19.2bn.

Moreover, the Ministry said it has yet to book €79mn in its financial accounts due to technical discrepancies. In June alone, net revenues underperformed the monthly target by €955mn due to tax reductions and deferrals of tax payments of the past months.  Ordinary revenues, which exclude receipts from social security organizations and local governments, underperformed the target by €3.38bn, amounting to €21.37bn.

Tax revenues fell short of the target by €2.65bn or 12.6%, amounting to €18.4bn, but they were €333mn higher than the updated targets. June tax revenues reached €2.93bn, down €426mn compared to the monthly budget target. Public Investment Budget revenues stood at €1.65bn, €350mn below the budgeted target, while state spending amounted to €28.2bn, €2.9bn above target, due to COVID-19 related payments and higher Public Investment Budget spending. 

Greece/Economy: The Council of State, Greece’s highest administrative court, has ruled in favor of retroactive payments for pension cuts which took place between June 2015 and May 2016. The decision is applicable to some 250K pensioners and the potential net fiscal cost is estimated at €400mn. However, if all all pensioners appeal for their pension reductions potential retroactive payments would lift the fiscal cost at some €4bn. 

LAMDA DEVELOPMENT: New 7-year €320mn bond issue expires tomorrow July 17.  Yield range set between 3.4%-3.8%.  Reportedly oversubscription is at 2x. 

PPC: PPC is reportedly set to kick-off a second voluntary exit scheme, in a bid to reduce further its headcount by up to 1800 employees. The scheme applies to employees who are over 55 years of age. Recall that PPC completed recently a VES which involved 702 employees who worked in lignite mines and plants in Western Macedonia and were also over 55 years of age. PPC’s headcount was approximately 15,000 employees as of end 2019. The utility’s medium-term strategic plan calls of less 11,000 employees by 2023. Total cost of the new VRS is estimated at €63mn (in full take up) with payback period estimated in 18monts. Annual savings are set at €50mn/year. 

TERNA ENERGY: The company sold its first 138MW wind energy park that it acquired in the US 10 years ago in Idaho (Mountain Air Wind Park) to Innergex Renewable Energy for a total consideration of $215mn. It will record a pre-tax capital gain of > than $30mn in Q3’20 financial results while it aims to direct all $215mn of the transaction value to reduce current outstanding debt obligations (net debt as of Q1’20 €747mn, debt €1,131mn).

  • The aforementioned park recorded a FY’19 EBITDA €17.6mn implying an EV/EBITDA transaction multiple of 12.2x. Following the completion of the transaction TE will operate 3 wind parks in the US with a total 512MW capacity. The group targets in 2,800MW installed capacity by 2025. Additional buyback continues uninterruptedly as on July 14 the company bought 14,273 shares for a total consideration of €141.32K (avg price €9.9/share) 

CNL CAPITAL: The company goes ex FY’19 dividend €0.15/share (net) as of today. NAV as of end June 2020 stood art €10.16/share. 

AUTHOELLAS: AGM clears FY’19 gross dividend distribution €0.23/share (net €0.2185/share) adjusted for 230,236 treasury stock. Ex-dividend date set on July 20. Dividend payment July 24. 

INFORM LYKOS: The company trades ex FY’19 gross dividend €0.04/share (net €0.038/share) on July 20. Dividend payment on July 27. 

THRACE LASTICS: AGM clears FY’19 gross dividend distribution €0.046/share (net €0.043/share). Ex dividend date July 17. Dividend payment July 

MYTILINEOS: On July 14, the company bought 34.444 own shares at avg. price € 7,5037/share and a total consideration of € 258.5Κ. The company now controls 1.172.365 shares or 0.8205% of share capital.

OTE: On July 14, the company bought 612,496 own shares at avg. price €11,96655/share and a total consideration of € 7.3mn. The company now controls 5,191,447 shares or 1.104% of share capital. 

SARANTIS: On July 14, the company bought 1,500 own shares at avg. price € 8,2/share and a total consideration of €12.3Κ. The company now controls 2,758,940 shares or 3.95% of share capital. 

QUEST: H1’20 financial results to be released on September 9th after market close.

Manos Chatzidakis

Head of research

29 Alexandras Avenue

11473 Athens,Greece

Tel: +30 210 6478755/754

Fax:+30 210 6410139

Email: [email protected]

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