To χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του Μικρομέτοχου: ΟΝΕΙΡΟ ΖΩ, ΜΗ ΜΕ ΞΥΠΝΑΤΕ

ALPHA BANK: ‘Οσο να είναι η τιμή στόχου των αναλυτών της Goldman Sachs στα 1,3700 ευρώ μας ιντριγκάρει. Είναι από τις ελάχιστες φορές… Άλλωστε, προσωπική εκτίμηση είναι ότι μεσοπρόθεσμα τα 1,3500 την αδικούν.

  • ΧΟΡΤΑΣΤΙΚΕΣ οι εν δυνάμει αποδόσεις για τις Euronbank και Εθνική, αλλά τα περισσότερα θα τα ξαναδώσει η ΠΕΙΡΑΙΩΣ κι ας γράφουν… 1,1500 ευρώ. Προσωπικές εκτιμήσεις και φυσικά… Ουδείς ‘Ασφαλτος…
  • ΣΕ ΕΙΚΟΝΑ ΑΠΟΣΥΝΘΕΣΗΣ και σήμερα η ΑΛΦΑ, αλλά αυτό εξυπηρετεί τους αγοραστές της…

MIA XAΡA ΒΑΔΙΖΕι σήμερα η αγορά μας, με τάσεις αυτονόμησης τόσον από τις ξένες αγορές όσον και από τις τραπεζικές μετοχές. ΟΝΕΙΡΟ ΖΩ, ΜΗ ΜΕ ΞΥΠΝΑΤΕ δηλαδή.

Στο +1,83% ο ΓΔ με τον ΔΤΡ στο -0,66%.

ΤΟΝ ΤΟΝΟ μας τον χάρισαν τα δύο χαρτιά του Ομίλου ΠΕΡΙΣΤΕΡΗ (να είναι καλά ο άνθρωπος) και η ΔΕΗ…  Σιγοντάρουν και οι ΟΤΕ, ΜΠΕΛΑ, ΕΛΠΕ. ΜΟΗ και ΤΙΤΑΝ.

Daily Monitor

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A bounce is expected on encouraging news related to the economic sectors openings and fresh government supporting measures.

Agenda: Fourlis Q1:20 Conference call. Revoil FY:19 results; Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will announce steps to revive the economy in a televised address.

Macros 

Greece/Economy: Greek Finance Ministry said it examines a new framework for supporting borrowers who are affected by the coronavirus crisis, with the state subsidizing part of their monthly mortgage repayments for loans that have pledged a primary residence as collateral for some certain period. Moreover, the Ministry said it is working on a new debt settlement scheme, which will replace all the current schemes and will enable borrowers in arrears to settle all their current debts under one scheme.

Greece/Tourism: The government has decided to open Greek borders for tourists from the European Union, the Schengen area and Israel by July 1 at the latest, but possibly even earlier, from mid-June. The relevant announcements are expected today or Thursday, along with the unveiling of the government’s plan to support the tourist industry. The country’s health authorities have already approved the government’s plan to let in tourists and only the date remains to be finalized. This will depend on the country’s epidemiological data, which are very encouraging for the moment. The opening of the borders may also entail that seasonal hotels could start business from June 15 – year-round hotels will open from June 1.

  • The relevant decisions will be made by Prime Minister Mitsotakis. International flights from some countries will have already started in the last week of May.
  • According to the government’s decision, incoming travelers will not be quarantined or required to take a test for the coronavirus. Greece had requested these tests before the European Commission drafted a series of proposals last week regarding the free movement in the bloc.

However, the request was not accepted by the EU nor by the European Center for Disease Prevention and the European Aviation Safety Agency, which decided that tests should not be a prerequisite for travel given the existing scientific data. Individual countries will have the right to demand additional conditions, but the EU has demanded that the principle of nondiscrimination be respected.

  • As for air travel, it will be subject to specific protocols that include the observance of physical distancing at airports. Moreover, masks will be mandatory at airports and on-board airplanes, while the completion of a special health questionnaire before the trip will be required. As for the package for the tourism sector, Mitsotakis will also announce a series of support measures for transport, hotels and all the sectors involved in the sectors of hospitality and travel. These measures will include a reduction in VAT on tourist packages, transport and other affected areas of the tourist industry, as well as subsidizing labor.

Corporate

Banking Sector: Fitch Rating affirmed the long-term credits rating of Greek banks, Eurobank at CCC+, NBG at CCC+, Alpha at CCC+ and Piraeus at CCC. The affirmation at the “CCC” category reflect the already weak credit profiles of the four systemic banks and the downside risk resulting from the economic and financial implications of the coronavirus outbreak.

  • Fitch argues that the most immediate downside sensitivity for the ratings now relates to the economic and financial-market impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the already weak capital and asset-quality positions for the sector.

Fitch expects Greek GDP to decline by 8.1% in 2020. It forecasts some recovery activity in the second half of the year and 2021, with GDP growth reaching 5.1% in 2021. It still warns that there are downside risks to these projections around the extend and duration of the coronavirus outbreak. “Prolonged lockdown periods or a second wave of infections in Greece and other European countries would imply much larger declines in output in 2020 and a weaker recovery in 2021.”

  • Fitch expects earnings challenges to increase due to lower business volumes and rising loan impairment charges. Concluding, Fitch argues that “Greek banks’ capitalization remains highly vulnerable to further asset-quality deterioration considering the significant encumbrance from unreserved problem asset and the weak capacity to generate earnings.”

Aegean Air: Aegean said that it has already resumed flights to mainland destinations and Crete, with the rest of the islands to follow next week, before a gradual reopening to European destinations, starting with Munich, Frankfurt, Geneva and Zurich. Service to and from Brussels, which was not include in the flight ban, will also be increased, the airline said. Aegean also said that all new tickets issued through June 15 – regardless of the travel date – will have the benefit of the Flex fare category, meaning passengers can change their tickets without charge.

  • Aegean expects to increase operations to around 50% by September from 25% in July, under a best-case scenario. Recall that revenue in the first quarter, which started strong but suffered from a “disastrous” March, will be down 15% to around €146.4mn, leading to a pretax loss of about €80mn, board chairman Vassilakis told investors in the conference call.

Additionally a loss of €30mn from fuel hedging should also deteriorate Q1’20 losses to €110mn.  Total passenger traffic in Q1 declined by 15% y-o-y to 2.1mn after a disastrous March where traffic declined 15% more than offsetting January’s+11% and February’s +7% rises. The company will announce Q1’20 results on June 25. Cash at the end of March stood at €465mn while the company has secured additional €120mn credit line with cash burning/month assuming no activity at all standing at €40mn.

Piraeus Bank: The bank will announce Q1’20 financial results on June 1 after market close.

Reds: The company issued a €41.5mn bond loan with NBG and Piraeus Bank to refinance existing debt and Smart Park concluded expansion by 53,000sqm now operating at 93% occupancy rate (80% for the new sqm’s).

OTE: On May 18, the company bought 54,287 own shares at €12.2040/share (total cost €662.519K). OTE now owns 2,755,540 total own shares or 0.586% of share capital.

Terna Energy: On May 18, the company bought 9,902 own shares for a total consideration of €85.997K (€8.6849 avg price per share).

BRIQ PROPERTIES: On May 18, the company bought 1,400 own shares at €1.678/share for a total consideration of €2.348K.

Intracom: INTRASOFT International has been awarded the European Blockchain Observatory and Forum project by the European Commission’s Directorate General for Informatics (DIGIT). The Observatory was aimed at facilitating the development and uptake of blockchain applications in Europe, and thereby positioning the EU as a global leader in the field.

  • Building on the work done since its launch and taking stock of its achievements, INTRASOFT has won a clear mandate to reinvigorate its mission and further expand and strengthen its activities in the world of blockchain.
  • INTRASOFT is leading a consortium of technology leaders aiming to engage the European blockchain community, providing educational and dissemination opportunities among stakeholders, and further participating in the cutting-edge developments in this area.

PPA: FY 2019 gross dividend/share €0.5388.

Fourlis (Q1:20 Results review): The company reported a weak set of Q1’20 results amid COVID 19 pandemic effect across all markets of operation in March affecting consumer spending and network (physical stores) cease of operations. Sales came in 12.6% lower y-o-y to €84.5mn vs our call for €87.3mn. EBITDA settled at €5.7mn, a 29.6% drop y-o-y still beating our call by €0.3mn on better flat gross margin intake and better opex reduction delivery. Net income losses accelerated to €5.1mn compared to €3.3mn loss a year ago on higher depreciation and lease charges. In more details:

  • IKEA division sales decreased by 13.3% to €54mn on 12.8% drop in Greek sales and 14.1% retreat on IKEA international sales. We were calling for -12% and -10% drop respectively. IKEA gross profit margin improved by 90bps to 41.7% vs our call for c.1% deterioration on better product mix whereas better opex/sales ratio related to opex containment (with the bulk of it coming in Q2’20) safeguarded a milder drop in EBITDA by 20% to €3.6mn vs our call for €2.9mn.
  • Sports Division sales (Intersport/TAF) came in lower by 11.2% to €30.55mn whereas we were opting for a smaller drop to €31.8mn thus missing actual figure by 4.1%. Greek sales decreased 8.3% (vs our estimate for 10% drop) and international sales by 14.3%, which we completely missed (-5%). Gross profit margin deteriorated by 190 bps to 42.6% as January sales period and product mix hurt gross profitability to €13mn vs our call for €14mn (-50bps deterioration was our estimate). EBITDA collapsed by 38.5% to €2.4mn on EBITDA margin 3.5% worsening, still below our expectation for 9% division EBITDA margin and €2.86mn figure for the quarter.
  • Net Debt settled to €121.2mn an increase of €15mn compared to FY’19 €16.2mn9. Capex for the quarter stood at €6.4mn involving the launch of new smaller IKEA store concept in Varna (Bulgaria) in September and Intersport/TAF network expansion/refurbishments.
  • On May 18, the company bought 12,983 own shares at €3.52/share for a total consideration of €45.7K. Fourlis now commands 319,507 own shares or 0.6144% of share capital.

The following tables summarize FOURLIS Q1’20 financial performance versus our estimates:

FOURLIS

2019

2020

Y-o-Y

2020 Est.

Act. vs

EUR thous.

Q1

Q1

(%)

Q1

Est.

Sales

96.7

84.5

-12.6% 

87.3

-3.2% 

EBITDA

8.1

5.7

-29.6% 

5.4

5.6% 

EBITDA Mrg

8.4% 

6.7% 

-163 bps 

6.2% 

+56 bps 

Net Income

-3.3

-5.1

-54.5% 

-4.1

-24.7% 

Net Mrg

-3.4% 

-6.0% 

-262 bps 

-4.7% 

-135 bps 

 

IKEA (€mn)

Q1 ’19 (A)

Q1 ’20 (A)

  % chng y-o-y

Q1 ’20 BETA EST

Est Dev from actual figure

Sales

62.30

54.02

-13.29%

55.49

2.73%

Gross Profit

25.40

22.50

-11.42%

22.58

0.38%

Gross Profit margin

40.77%

41.65%

+88 bps

40.70%

-95 bps

Total SG&A expenses

20.90

18.90

-9.57%

19.70

4.23%

% on sales

33.55%

34.99%

+144 bps

35.50%

+51 bps

EBITDA

4.50

3.60

-20.00%

2.89

-19.85%

EBITDA margin

7.22%

6.66%

-56 bps

5.20%

-146 bps

source: Company, BETA Securities Research estimates

 

 

 

 

 

Intersport/TAF (€mn)

Q1 ’19 (A)

Q1 ’20 (A)

% chng y-o-y

Q1 ’20 BETA EST

Est Dev from actual figure

Sales

34.40

30.54

-11.21%

31.80

4.10%

Gross Profit

15.30

13.00

-15.03%

13.99

7.61%

Gross Profit margin

44.48%

42.56%

-191 bps

44.00%

+144 bps

Total SG&A expenses

11.40

10.60

-7.02%

11.13

4.98%

% on sales

33.14%

34.71%

+157 bps

35.00%

+29 bps

EBITDA

3.90

2.40

-38.46%

2.86

19.23%

EBITDA margin

11.34%

7.86%

-348 bps

9.00%

+114 bps

source: Company, BETA Securities Research estimates

 

 

 

 

  • During today’s conference call we expect management to guide and give some color on pandemic implication on operations in Q2’20, clarify intentions and dividend payment (if any) and capex and provide expectations and outlook for the % of recovery in 2020 and 2021.  Conference Call Details: Wednesday May 20 5pm (GR time)
  • GR participants: +30 210 9460800 or +30 213 009 6000
  • US participants: +1 516 447 5632
  • UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063
  • Other International Participants: +44 (0) 203 059 5872

Other Corporate results

INFORM LYKOS

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

67,981

72,486

6.6% 

EBITDA

5,450

6,206

13.9% 

EBITDA Mrg

8.0% 

8.6% 

+54 bps 

Net Income

-5,326

35

100.7% 

Net Mrg

-7.8% 

0.0% 

+788 bps 

Dividend to be announced in AGM 

AthEx Calendar – Upcoming General Meetings

25/05 Elvalhalcor AGM, Dividend €0.03

26/05 Viohalco: AGM

27/05 Jumbo AGM, AUDIOVISUAL EGM change of corporate id

29/05 Intralot, AGM HELEX, AGM,

02/06 Dromeas AGM

04/04: Attica Bank AGM, Mytilineos AGM

10/06: Loulis Mills AGM

16/06 Cretan Plastics AGM

17/06 Elton Chemicals

18/06 Lavipharm AGM

19/06 Thessaloniki Water AGM

24/06 Hellenic Petroleum AGM

25/06 BYTE AGM, Sidma AGM, PPA AGM, PPC AGM

26/06 Ellaktor AGM, Athens Water AGM, Flecopack AGM, Forthnet AGM, Motodynamics AGM, Quest Holdings AGM

27/06 Jumbo AGM Dividend €0.062, Paperpack AGM

29/06 Petropoulos AGM Intralot AGM

30/06 Intercontinental REIC, HAIDEMENOS AGM

07/07 KRI – KRI AGM

15/07 Thrace Plastics

16/07 IPTO AGM

17/07 Motor oil AGM

27/07 Varvaressos AGM

30/07 Trastor AGM

01/09 ANEK AGM 

Results Announcements

22/05   Thesalloniki Water FY:19, Cretan Plastics FY:19

26/05   Athens Exchange Q1:20

28/05   Lamda Development Q1:20 NBG Q1:20 Alpha Bank Q1:20

29/05   BYTE FY:19, Eurobank Q1:20

01/06   Piraeus Bank Q1:20 (After Market)

09/06   Quest Q1:20

30/05    Athens Water FY:19

30/06   Athens Medical FY:19

Kind Regards, Manos Chatzidakis

Head of Research 

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29 Alexandras Avenue 11473 Athens,Greece Tel: +30 210 6478955 Fax:+30 210 6410139

Email:  [email protected]

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