Το χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του μικρομέτοχου (14/2)

ΑΠΙΣΤΕΥΤΟ ΚΑΙ ΟΜΩΣ ΑΛΗΘΙΝΟ

  • SPREADS
ΧΩΡΑ ΑΠΟΔΟΣΗ % Spread vs BUND
ΕΛΛΑΔΑ 0,92 +1,32
ΠΟΡΤΟΓΑΛΙΑ 0,24 +0,64
ΙΣΠΑΝΙΑ 0,30 +0,70
ΙΤΑΛΙΑ 0,92 +1,32

**

ΔΙΑΒΑΣΑΜΕ: Έρχονται νέες θετικές εξελίξεις για την οικονομία – Προς αποδοχή από την ΕΚΤ για αγορά ομολόγων από τις τράπεζες.

ΔΙΑΒΑΣΑΜΕ[1]: Η Ελλάδα βρίσκεται στο επίκεντρο των αγορών, των αναλυτών και του διεθνούς τύπου, αιφνιδιάζοντας και τους πιο αισιόδοξους με τις επιδόσεις της σε ό,τι αφορά την αγορά ομολόγων. Και δικαίως.

  • Μία χώρα η οποία βρίσκεται εκτός επενδυτικής βαθμίδας – και που πολλά διεθνή μέσα ακόμη αποκαλούν “junk” – κατάφερε να δανείζεται στα ίδια επίπεδα με χώρες όπως η Ιταλία αλλά και πιο φτηνά από τις ΗΠΑ. “Φανταστείτε πού θα ήταν οι ελληνικές αποδόσεις εάν η χώρα αποτελούσε μέρος του QE της ΕΚΤ”, γράφει η Societe Generale.

ΔΙΑΒΑΣΑΜΕ [2]: Η αγορά έχει δείξει εδώ και πάρα πολλούς μήνες ότι θέλει ριζικές λύσεις στο μέτωπο της μείωσης των μη εξυπηρετούμενων ανοιγμάτων των τραπεζών, προκειμένου να “ξεκλειδώσει” την αποφασιστικότητα των αγοραστών. Και το Υπουργείο Οικονονικών δείχνει να “ακούει” αυτήν την αναμονή και να λαμβάνει πρωτοβουλίες για να επισπεύσει την εκκαθάριση των τραπεζικών ισολογισμών.

Όπως έχουν αναφέρει αρκετοί ξένοι αναλυτές, οι επιδόσεις των ελληνικών τραπεζών στο μέτωπο της μείωσης των NPEs είναι καθοριστικές για τις χρηματιστηριακές επιδόσεις, καθώς θα βελτιώσουν σημαντικά την εμπιστοσύνη των αγοραστών. Και όπως σημειώνεται, αν και το σχέδιο Ηρακλής είναι ένα σημαντικό βήμα προς την αντιμετώπιση των NPEs, εντούτοις δεν είναι αρκετό για να οδηγήσει στην πλήρη εξυγίανση των τραπεζικών ισολογισμών.

  • Όπως επισημαίνει και ο Λουκάς Παπαϊωάννου της Fast Finance, οι βασικοί λόγοι που το ελληνικό χρηματιστήριο εμφανίζει αδυναμία περαιτέρω ανόδου είναι η λήξη της πολιτικής περιόδου χάριτος που είχε η κυβέρνηση σε μεγάλα οικονομικά και κοινωνικά θέματα, το μεταναστευτικό, η ιδιωτικοποίηση ζημιογόνων κρατικών επιχειρήσεων (ΔΕΗ, ΛΑΡΚΟ, ΕΛΤΑ κ.α.), αλλά και εφαρμογή του σχεδίου “Ηρακλής” με επιτάχυνση των πλειστηριασμών σε κατ’ εκτίμηση 140.000 κατοικίες.
  • Αυτοί οι λόγοι, σε συνδυασμό με την κόπωση του ρυθμού βελτίωσης αρκετών πρόδρομων μακροοικονομικών δεικτών και την κάμψη του ρυθμού υλοποίησης των προαναγγελθέντων μεταρρυθμίσεων και επενδυτικών σχεδίων, ανησυχούν τους επενδυτές.

ΤΑΜΠΛΟ – ΠΡΟΣΕΧΟΥΜΕ: Εκτός των γνωστών ΠΑΝΙΣΧΥΡΩΝ ΔΥΝΑΜΕΩΝ – ΣΤΥΛΟΒΑΤΩΝ του Χ.Α παρατηρούμε λόγω προοπτικών @ δυναμικής (μεταξύ των άλλων) τις ΙΝΤΡΑΚΑΤ, ΦΙΕΡΑΤΕΞ (πολύ καλό 2019), ΕΛΓΕΚΑ (εξελίξεις ενόψει), ΦΡΙΓΟ (υπερπουλημένη τεχνικά) και πάντα χωρίς εξαλλοσύνες.

  • ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΗ ΑΝΟΔΟΣ
ΣΥΜΒΟΛΟ ΤΙΜΗ ΜΕΤ.% ΔΙΑΦ. ΟΓΚΟΣ
ΜΟΤΟ 1,6800 9,80 % 0,1500 7.934
ΜΙΝ 0,7200 8,27 % 0,0550 3.599
ΝΑΥΠ 0,8300 5,06 % 0,0400 1.940
ΕΝΤΕΡ 7,2000 4,35 % 0,3000 20
ΕΧ 0,9450 3,85 % 0,0350 2.000
ΝΤΟΠΛΕΡ 0,8500 3,03 % 0,0250 3.222
ΜΑΘΙΟ 0,6900 2,99 % 0,0200 3.105
ΚΥΡΙΟ 2,1600 2,86 % 0,0600 3.330
ΕΥΡΩΒ 0,8160 2,77 % 0,0220 74.323.102
ΕΛΓΕΚ 0,4600 2,68 % 0,0120 9.324
ΑΔΜΗΕ 2,6700 2,50 % 0,0650 532.328
ΑΣΚΟ 2,8800 2,49 % 0,0700 402
  • INKAT- Απ.Μάνθος: Αργά αλλά σταθερά μασουλάνε τους πωλητές ενώ μέχρι τώρα δεν έχει χαλάσει διόλου το διαγραμμά της και τον ανοδικό στροφέα. Εν τω μεταξύ κάτι πέταξε μια “κούκου” εφημερίδα όπου είναι όμως μέσα στα πράγματα για το Κόκκαλη ότι θα πάρει δουλειά 200 εκατομμυρίων. Τα 1,9000 είναι ευκολάκι…
Εικόνα
  • ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΗ ΠΤΩΣΗ
ΣΥΜΒΟΛΟ ΤΙΜΗ ΜΕΤ.% ΔΙΑΦ. ΟΓΚΟΣ
ΔΟΜΙΚ 0,1680 -20,00 % -0,0420 15
ΔΙΟΝ 0,1960 -19,67 % -0,0480 2
ΑΚΡΙΤ 0,3700 -17,78 % -0,0800 10
ΑΕΓΕΚ 0,0445 -14,42 % -0,0075 1.938
ΠΡΔ 0,1720 -13,57 % -0,0270 4.000
ΕΠΙΛΚ 0,2220 -7,50 % -0,0180 500
ΣΠΙ 0,5500 -5,98 % -0,0350 6.873
ΒΙΟΚΑ 1,2600 -5,97 % -0,0800 855
ΦΛΕΞΟ 7,6000 -5,00 % -0,4000 510
ΣΑΡΑΝ 2,8200 -4,08 % -0,1200 1.638
ΦΟΡΘ 0,4240 -3,64 % -0,0160 10.484
ΑΝΕΚ 0,0675 -3,57 % -0,0025 10.210
  • ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΟΣ ΤΖΙΡΟΣ
ΣΥΜΒΟΛΟ ΤΙΜΗ ΜΕΤ.% ΟΓΚΟΣ ΤΖΙΡΟΣ
ΕΥΡΩΒ 0,8160 2,77 % 74.323.102 59,06εκ.
ΟΠΑΠ 11,9500 0,42 % 373.340 4,44εκ.
ΟΤΕ 13,8000 -0,43 % 291.129 4,02εκ.
ΕΤΕ 2,9090 0,66 % 1.195.909 3,47εκ.
ΕΧΑΕ 4,6400 0,87 % 535.649 2,47εκ.
ΑΛΦΑ 1,8350 0,55 % 1.150.886 2,12εκ.
ΜΟΗ 18,8300 -0,79 % 81.897 1,55εκ.
ΑΔΜΗΕ 2,6700 2,50 % 532.328 1,42εκ.
ΜΥΤΙΛ 9,2400 0,43 % 137.864 1,28εκ.
ΠΕΙΡ 3,1560 1,48 % 323.589 1,02εκ.
ΛΑΜΔΑ 8,2700 0,85 % 92.948 763,1χιλ.
ΕΛΠΕ 7,8300 0,13 % 94.858 747,5χιλ

Βeta Securities – Market Comment

Closing auctions reversed the day’s losses for the blue chip index, though not for banks and the majority of stocks. Session was mixed as investors are still concerned with coronavirus developments despite the record low GGB yields.

General index ended at 920.24 points, adding 0.29% to Wednesday’s 917.56 points. The large-cap FTSE 25 index expanded 0.63% to 2,316.17 points, while the mid-cap index contracted 0.62%. The banks index also contracted, by 1.50%, as Piraeus slumped 2.20%, National declined 1.93%, Alpha gave up 1.56% and Eurobank lost 0.75%. However, Jumbo grew 3.24%, Lamda Development earned 2.89% and Coca-Cola HBC improved 2.68%. In total 45 stocks posted gains, 68 conceded losses and 21 closed unchanged. Turnover amounted to €65.6m, down from Wednesday’s €76.8m.

We expect index to move sideways following the trend of foreign markets. 

In the Spotlight – Βeta Securities

Greece/Economy: The European Commission expects economic growth in Greece to accelerate by 2.2% in 2019, and 2.4% in 2020, before easing to 2.0% in 2021. Its previous forecasts were for 1.8% and 2.3% GDP growth rates in 2019 and 2020, respectively. “Greece’s economy is estimated to have grown by 2.2% in 2019 and is expected to grow at or above 2% over the forecast horizon, provided that reforms efforts continue to be implemented,” EC said in its Winter Economic Forecast. EC expects investment and consumption to be the main drivers of growth this year and next. Still, “export growth is expected to remain positive but is likely to ease, due to moderate growth in export markets and slower growth in export market shares.” 

Greece/Economy: Reportedly Greece is planning two more bond issues after the successful completion of the 15 year bond last month. 

Banking Sector: Greek banks may soon be allowed to purchase more sovereign bonds issued by the country, its finance minister said on Thursday, a step which would boost demand and push country’s yields even lower. Greek banks have had a cap on Greek sovereign holdings since 2015, following a sovereign debt crisis which forced the country into three bailouts totaling €288bn between 2010 and 2015, the largest in modern history. “It appears that this month, or next month, there will be a lifting of the restrictions in the banking system on buying Greek bonds.

  • This will reinforce the banking system with liquidity,” Finance Minister Staikouras told in an interview aired on Thursday night. The decision should be taken by the ECB that supervises the country’s banks.
  • At present Greek banks cannot hold more than €9.5bn in Greek sovereign debt. Recall that Greek banks now have €9.5bn of Greek government bonds in their portfolios out of a total of about €50bn in the free float. The rest €250bn of its debt is held by its official lenders. Such a decision will also help banks to invest their excess liquidity in bonds with higher returns than parked in ECB or other eurozone bonds with negative yields.  

Greece/Employment: The increase in hirings of private sector salary workers has started to slow, generating fears of a reversal of the rise in employment. Already the January data of the Labor Ministry regarding the balance of hirings and departures showed a negative result with the loss of 17,318 jobs.

The Ergani figures also revealed that out of the 177,632 hirings, only 82,382 concerned full-time employment, while 74,392 jobs were part-time and 20,858 were in rotating employment. The Hellenic Federation of Enterprises (SEV) has sounded a warning in its monthly bulletin, saying that sooner or later this trend will start to weigh on the increase in disposable income in 2020 unless investment activity grows. SEV attributes this trend to the salary hikes in 2019, and mainly the 11 percent increase in the minimum wage. 

Greece/Privatizations: Greek lawmakers approved a restructuring plan for Larco late on Wednesday which Greece called a last attempt to save Europe’s biggest nickel producer. 

MOH/Mytilineos: Motor oil concluded the acquisition of 47MW’s solar parks in Northern and Central Greece for €45.8mn from Mytilineos.  The solar parks became operational in the second half of 2019 and have a secured revenue stream via a 20-year Power Purchase Agreement through the Greek Renewable Energy operator. This is the second transaction in RES for MOH after the acquisition of the two wind licenses (9.4MW) in 2019. 

NBG: Deadline for the submission of binding bids for its insurance arm Ethniki Asfalistiki on February 28th. 

Coca Cola (Results FY:19 Review): Coca-Cola HBC reported a solid set of full-year interims, with comparable net profits rising 9% to 522.2 million euros. On a reported basis, profits were also 9% higher to 487.5 million, accelerating in the last quarter in all segments. FX neutral revenue growth stood at +4.4% y-o-y, or +3.7% y-o-y excluding Bambi acquisition. Comparable EBIT grew 11.5% y-o-y to €758.7m, with the respective margin up 60bps y-o-y. Results were in line with estimates at the top end of the consensus. In more details: 

§  Group volumes stood at 2,265m unit cases, up 3.3%, in line with consensus estimates, posting accelerating volumes across all segments in Q4:19

§  Net sales revenues came in at €7,026m, up 5.5% y-o-y benefiting from a 1.1 percentage point positive impact from currency movements in the Russian Rouble and Swiss Franc against the Euro, with NSR/unit case shaping at € 3.10 vs. €3.04 the year ago period. FX-neutral revenues were increased by 4.4% y-o-y or 3.7% excl. Bambi’s acquisition.

§  In established markets, volumes stood at 624.5m unit cases, up 0.8% with NSR shaping at €2,517.6m up 1.9% y-o-y, with ongoing strong performance in Italy.

§  In developing markets, volumes were increased by 0.5% at 431.1m unit cases with net sales revenue shaping at €1,352.1m, up 3.5%

§  In emerging markets, volumes were increased by 5.7% at 1,208.9m unit cases or 4.4% excluding Bambi’s acquisition, while NSR came in at €3,156.3m, up 9.6%, y-o-y; we point out market share gains in Nigeria, where volumes were increased by 24% during Q4:19.

§  Comparable EBIT came in at €758.7m, up 11.5% y-o-y, posting EBIT margin expansion by 60bps; excluding Bambi’s acquisition, adj. EBIT was increased by 9.5% y-o-y.

§  Comparable Net Profit stood at €522.2m, up 8.7% y-o-y, with comparable EPS shaping at €1.436.

§  Proposed ordinary dividend is at €0.62/share up 8.8% y-o-y (dividend yield of 1.8%).

§  FCF for the period stood at €442.6m up 19.6% with Capex shaping at €483.6m accounting for 6.9% of sales.

§  Management guided that it expects Net Debt/ Comparable EBITDA to stand at the upper end of 1.5-2.0x, which implies that the amount of €500-700mn is available for acquisitions and can be used in 2020.

§  Management commented that Costa Coffee represents a strong opportunity for the Group, since coffee market is equal to NARTD market; Costa Coffee will be launched through various channels; these includes packages for in home use or HO.RE.CA., capsules for in home use or offices and RTD packages. For 2020 management does not expect significant contribution from Costa Coffee neither in top nor in bottom line, while a material contribution is expected as of 2021.

§  Looking ahead, the Group expects to deliver volume growth across all three segments with FX-neutral NSR/case growth at similar level to the one achieved in 2019; impact on EBIT form foreign currency should be break even for FY 2020, while the Group expects further reduction on Opex as a percentage of sales. In the conference call management said that is targeting for increased NSR of 5-6%, with Comparable EBIT margin expansion of 20-30bps; for FY 2020 management expects Comparable EBIT margin of 11.2%, which implies a Comparable EBIT of €831m while comparable tax rate for 2020 to stand in the area of 24-26%. 

Overall a solid set of results and a positive outlook for the current year. Coca Cola trades 20.9x FY:20 earnings and 13.3x EV/EBITDA. 

The following table summarise results vs consensus estimates: 

COCA COLA

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

2019 Est.

Act. vs

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

FY

Est.

Sales

6,657.1

7,026.0

5.5% 

7,003.0

0.3% 

EBITDA

1,000.3

1,152.9

15.3% 

1,135.0

1.6% 

EBITDA Mrg

15.0% 

16.4% 

+138 bps 

16.2% 

+20 bps 

Net Income

480.4

522.2

8.7% 

519.00

0.6% 

Net Mrg

7.2% 

7.4% 

+22 bps 

7.4% 

+2 bps 

  • Frigoglass: Frigoglass announced that its subsidiary Frigoglass Finance B.V. successfully concluded the offer and issued €260mn in aggregate principal amount of 6.875% senior secured notes due 2025 on February 12, 2020. The Notes are guaranteed on a senior secured basis by Frigoglass and certain of its subsidiaries. The Notes and the guarantees are secured by the collateral on a first-priority basis (although certain future obligations and hedging obligations that are secured by the collateral may receive priority). The collateral consists of share pledges over the Subsidiary Guarantors, certain bank accounts and intercompany receivables.
  • The Notes were issued at an issue price of 100.000% and are expected to be admitted to the Official List of the Luxembourg Stock Exchange and admitted to trading on its Euro MTF Market. The proceeds from the offering will be used (i) to repay certain of Frigoglass’ existing borrowings, (ii) for general corporate purposes and (iii) to pay fees and expenses related to the offering of the Notes. In connection with the repayment of certain of its existing borrowings, Frigoglass will redeem the entire outstanding amount of its Senior Secured Guaranteed Notes due 2021 and Second Priority Secured Notes due 2022. The redemptions were concluded on February 13, 2020. 

PPC: The Ministry of Environment and Energy on Thursday announced the disbursement of 136 million euros for the lignite-dependent regions of western Macedonia and Megalopolis. The amount has been collected through the Public Power Corporation and is known as “the lignite resource of PPC”. The power company had distributed 22 million euros in 2019, under Syriza, related to fiscal 2013, but these have not been absorbed, Energy Minister Kostis Hatzidakis said. He added that although funds had been disbursed the last five years, they had not been allocated, and underlined the need for a speedy commitment to projects that will help lignite phaseout, under the EU’s Just Transition Mechanism, which was presented along with the Sustainable Europe Investment Plan on January 14, 2020.

Furthermore, the Funds Distribution Committee convened on Thursday and allocated the sum of approximately 101.4 million euros for the period 2015-2018, of which 65.9 million euros is earmarked for the areas of Kozani and Eordea, 20.4 million euros for Florina and Amynteo, and the remaining 15.1 million euros for Arcadia’s Megalopolis. This includes the EU’s Coal Regions in Transition Platform, which has greatly contributed in drafting strategies for the transition of Greece’s lignite-dependent electricity production profile towards a sustainable model of renewable energy sources for a low carbon economy. 

Thessaloniki Water: FY’19 results to be published on April 3rd. AGM scheduled for May 29th. Ex-dividend date set on June 25th. Dividend payment on July 2nd. H1’20 results on September 4th. 

Motordynamics: 5.5% (1,650,000 shares) of the company was placed yesterday (by main shareholder Kyriakopoulos) at €1.38/share (€2.27mn total transaction consideration). 

Nakas: The company trades today ex FY’19 gross dividend €0.06/share (net €0.057/share). 

FG Europe: The company filled for a delisting from the ASE.

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