(2) To χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του Μικρομέτοχου @17:21 (01/06/2020)

MEΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΗ ΑΝΟΔΟΣ

ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΗ ΠΤΩΣΗ

ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΟΣ ΤΖΙΡΟΣ 

ΜΕΓΑΛΥΤΕΡΗ ΚΕΦΑΛΑΙΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ





ΑΓΝΟΟΕΙΣΤΕ ΤΑ BID & ASK


ΑΓΝΟΟΕΙΣΤΕ ΤΑ BID & ASK


ΑΓΝΟΟΕΙΣΤΕ ΤΑ BID & ASK


__________________________________

To χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του Μικρομέτοχου (01/06/2020)

Daily Monitor- 01-06-2020

The upcoming rebalancing of the MSCI Greek stock indexes and profit taking after five consecutive days of gains led to losses at Athinon Avenue on Friday, with a strong daily turnover, the best in 2020. Notably 70% of trading volume took placing during the closing auctions. The benchmark of the Athens stock market ended May with a monthly advance of 3.87%, though banks lost 2.94%.General index ended at 652.58 points, shedding 1.87% from Thursday’s 665.04 points. On a weekly basis it expanded 7.12%.The large-cap FTSE 25 index contracted 2.41% to 1,571.48 points and the banks index slumped 7.94%.Eurobank dropped 10.59%, Alpha Bank and Titan Cement lost 8.87%, National Bank fell 7%, Aegean Air declined 6.14% and OPAP shrank 5.30%. Public Power Corporation grew 3.68%, Motor Oil rose 1.69% and Lamda Development increased 1.46%.In total 38 stocks posted gains, 59 endured losses and 18 remained unchanged. Turnover came to 390m, up from Thursday’s €95.3m.

  • Despite May positive ending for second straight month, banks failed to post a positive sign in their monthly performance. A bounce in place as banking sector hammered on Friday due to rebalancing, Q1:20 GDP provisional estimates figure in the spotlight (12:00 GR-Time).

Agenda: Ellaktor Q1:20 Conference Call, Bank of Piraeus Q1:20 MIG, Attica Group FY:19, Greece Q1:20 GDP, Jumbo ex-dividend 0.062 eur/share, Elvalhalkor ex-dividend 0.03 eur/share

Macros

Greece/PDMA: Greece seeks to raise €1bn through the offering of 26-week Treasury-bills on Wednesday, June 3, the debt office said. The auction will be conducted via primary dealers and the government may accept non-competitive bids of up to 30% of the initially offered amount during the auction and another 30% by Thursday, June 4. Settlement will take place Friday, June 5.

  • Greece/PPI: Producer price index (PPI) in industry suffered a blow in April, dropping 13.9% y-o-y on top of a 9.1% decline in the previous month, the National Statistics Service of ELSTAT said. In April 2019, the respective annual change was +3.6%.  On a monthly basis, PPI declined 4.1%.

Greece/Retail Sales: The lockdown measures in mid-March dashed the retail sales’ upward momentum in March, with turnover dropping by 1.5% y-o-y while retail volumes were down 3.1%, National Statistics Service of ELSTAT said. On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.7% in turnover but down 2.0% in volume terms. On a seasonally adjusted basis in March, retail sales were down 0.4% and 0.7% m-o-m in turnover and volumes terms.

  • Greece/Credit Expansion: The growth rate of the total credit extended to the economy remained positive in April, at +2.1% y-o-y versus 0.7% in the previous month, Bank of Greece said. The monthly net flow was positive by €2.57bn compared with a positive flow of €3.69bn in March. Credit growth to private sector increased to +0.3% versus +0.1% in March. The net flow was negative by €3mn compared with a positive net flow of €1.7bn in the previous month.

Greece/Private Sector Deposits: Private sector deposits in Greek banks rose further in April, for the third straight month, with household deposits showing a sharp increase while corporate deposits declined slightly, data from the central bank showed. Private sector deposits firmed at €1.43bn compared to a rise of €2.85bn in March, while the annual growth rate stood at 8.6% versus 8.8% in the previous month. Deposits amounted to €146.5bn as of end April. In April, corporate deposits decreased by €155mn compared with an increase of €1.5bn in the previous month, while the annual growth rate increased to 15.6% from 19.8% in the previous month. Deposits of households and non-profit institutions rose by €1.58bn, compared with a rise of €1.34bn in March, and the annual growth rate stood at 7.1% compared with a 6.5% rise in the previous month.

Corporate

Eurobank (Q1:20 results review)Eurobank more than doubled its first-quarter net profit on the back of lower provisions for impaired loans and higher fee and commission income. Results were better than our call. In more details:

§  Net interest income fell by 0.9% y-o-y to €339m in 1Q2020, with the net interest margin receding by 27 basis points over the same period to 2.08%.Net fee and commission income grew by 40.4% y-o-y to €92m.

§  Core pre-provision income increased 10% y-o-y to 212 million euros. Pre-provision income grew by 4.2% y-o-y to €214m. 

§  Operating expenses decreased by 2.8% y-o-y in Greece and were up by 1.7% y-o-y at a Group level due to the merger with Grivalia and Piraeus Bank Bulgaria. The cost to income ratio improved to 50.7% in 1Q2020 from 51.3% a year ago

§  Loan loss provisions reached 126 million euros and accounted for 134 basis points of the average net loans.  Provisions over NPEs increased by 30 basis points q-o-q to 55.6%.

§  Eurobank said that with the formal closing of the Cairo/FPS transactions, expected in the first half of June, Eurobank is facing the Covid-19 challenge having completed its NPE reduction acceleration plan. Accounting for these transactions, the NPE ratio stands at 15.6% and total provisions account for circa 60% of NPEs in the first quarter of 2020

§  The NPE ratio decreased by 30 basis points q-o-q to 28.9% and to 15.6% pro-forma for the Cairo securitization, while the NPE formation was negative by 5 million euros in Q1:20.

§  Eurobank said it expected core pre-provision income to remain roughly at the 2019 level while it looks for 2 billion euros growth for loan balances versus 2019.

§  Cost of risk between is seen between 140-160bps in 2020 to reflect the new conditions (vs 90 bps pre-Covid), implying, a charge of c€550 – 600m.: Eurobank expects core PPI of €840m, broadly stable yoy (vs €860m pre-Covid) which leads to a PBT in the tune of 150-200m for FY:20.

§  The phased-in and the fully-loaded Basel III CET 1 ratio reached 15.4% and 13.7% respectively in the first quarter.

§  Formal closing of Cairo & FPS transactions expected in the first half of June. Eurobank is expected to schedule for mid July an EGM to approve the distribution to Eurobank shareholders of 75% of the €1.5 bn of mezzanine notes that will be issued as part of the securitization  as 20% of the mezzanines will be sold to doValue for €15 mn and 5% will be retained by the bank.

§  Eurobank trades at 0.27x P/TBV its Q1:20 TBV ex-CoCos.

The following table summarize results vs. our estimates:

Eurobank

Act.

Act.

Overview

(In Million Euro)

1Q19

4Q19

1Q20

QoQ

YoY

1Q20

vs Est.

NII

342.7

346.7

339.4

-2.1%

-0.9%

340

-0.2%

Fee income

65.8

103.8

92.3

-11.0%

40.4%

85

8.6%

Trading

12

1

5

317.0%

-54.6%

5

8.4%

Other Income

2

27

-3

15

Total income

422.2

478.7

434.4

-9.3%

2.9%

445

-2.4%

Operating costs

-217.6

-229

-220

3.9%

-1.2%

-220

-0.1%

Pre-provision-profits

204.6

249.5

214.2

-14.2%

4.7%

225

-4.8%

Provisions

-164.6

-131

-126

3.8%

23.4%

-170

25.9%

Other results

-6

-52

-14

73.3%

-131.3%

-10

PBT

34.0

66.4

74.3

11.8%

118.6%

45

65.0%

Corporate taxes

6

22

15

-33.5%

144.0%

10

46.4%

Net profit

25.0

45.0

59.6

32.5%

138.8%

35

70.4%

Bank of Piraeus (Q1:20 results preview): BoP will announce Q1:20 on Monday after the end of the session followed by a conference call at 18:00 local time. Core income is expected to hold up relatively well in Q1 as NII is expected almost flattish q-o-q and fees are seen up 4% y-o-y. LLPs are expected to evaporate Pre-provision-Income which is forecasted at €195m. All in we expect BoP to post marginal losses in the tune of €5m following the frontloading provision trend seen in Alpha Bank’s results. Piraeus

Conference call to focus on NPEs formation in Q2, quantification of moratorium actions and potential rescheduling of securitizations. Piraeus trades 0.1x its TBV.

The following table summarize our estimates:

Bank of Piraeus

Act

Est.

Overview

(In Million Euro)

1Q19

4Q19

1Q20

QoQ

YoY

NII

360.3

363.0

361.0

-0.6%

0.2%

Fee income

69.1

91.0

72.0

-20.9%

4.3%

Trading

15

359

-10

-102.8%

-164.9%

Other Income

0

0

0

Total income

445

813

423

-48.0%

-4.9%

Operating costs

-231

-264

-228

13.6%

1.2%

Pre-provision-profits

214

549

195

-64.5%

-8.9%

Provisions

-174

-221

-200

9.5%

-14.9%

Other results

-17

-50

0

PBT

23

278

-5

-101.8%

-121.8%

Corporate taxes

9

88

0

Net profit (continued)

14

190

-5

-102.6%

-136.0%

Discontinued operations

5

0

0

Net profit

19

190

-5

-102.6%

-126.5%

Conference Call: Monday June 1st 18:00 Local Time

§  GR           + 30 211 180 2000 or +30 210 9460 800

§  UK           +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§  USA         +1 516 447 5632

§  Other      +44 (0) 203 059 5872

Plaisio (FY:19 results):  Plaisio announced another record level turnover however, profitability shrunk affected from competition (lower Gross margin) and marketing and financial expenses related to home appliances kick start. In more details:

§  Group’s turnover in 2019 reached €317,149 thousand, up 2.7% vs. 2018. IT and digital applications, amounted to €139,140 thousand, down 4.3% vs. 2018 (€145,333 thousand) contributing 43.9% from 47.1% to Group’s turnover. On the flip side telephony segment sales amounted to €65,647 thousand posting an increase of 5.9% compared to 2018. The sector participates with a 20.7% in the total sales of the Group (2018: 20.1%) . Office Supplies, posted a positive change in sales at € 102,431 thousand, contributing 32.3% of the Group’s sales (2018: 32.4%). In June 2019 Plaisio entered household appliances and air conditioning. Sales amounted to € 9,930 thousand, of which € 8,565 thousand relate to sales of white appliances and € 1,364 thousand to other categories.

§  Cost of sales increased by 2.9% and amounted to € 64,246 thousand compared to € 63,110 thousand in 2018. gross profit margin fell marginally to 20.26%.

§  EBITDA came at €13.56m vs €9.5m a year ago with the respective margin shaping at 4.3% up from 3,1%.

§  Further down profits before tax amounted to €3m (-50% y-o-y) courtesy of a) higher admin costs +€2.1m, +30% b) marketing €1.9m, +4% and c) financial expenses €1.5m, +124%.

§  Net profits came down at just 1.9m yet, include a tax deferral. On a like for like basis Plaisio would have post €2.9m posting a decrease of 25% y-o-y.

§  The company has a strong cash balance of €39.2m, excluding debt Plaisio is a net cash of €30.3m excluding leasing. Proposed dividend at 0.02 eur/share vs. 0.07 in 2018.

§  A presentation to investors and analysts will take place on Wednesday, June 4 via Webex. AGM June 25. Ex-dividend date July 2. Dividend payment July 9.

Despite weak bottom line Plaisio builds up a new line of business which expectedly needs more fuel (marketing and setup costs) to start performing. In that perspective results could be seen as transitional and excuse the rather small performance. In Q1:20 and during the lockdown period Plaisio managed to deliver more than 90% of the online order book in less than 3 days through its privately owned distribution network. We expect comments on this and how the situation evolves after the lockdown.

PLAISIO

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

308,858

317,149

2.7% 

EBITDA

9,458

13,565

43.4% 

EBITDA Mrg

3.1% 

4.3% 

+121 bps 

Net Income

3,856

1,947

-49.5% 

Net Mrg

1.2% 

0.6% 

-63 bps 

Ellaktor (Q1:20 results)Ellaktor posted Q1:20 net losses of €8.8m vs. €2.6n profits in Q1:20. Covid-19 affected particularly Concessions and real Estate segments as the restrictive measures reduced traffic and income from rentals In more details:

§  EBITDA came at €50.5m in Q1:20, vs. €61.6m in Q1:19, posting a reduction of 18%.The yoy delta of EBITDA by €11m is related to lower Gross Profit by €7m, the higher Administrative Expenses by €2m mainly due to the restructuring of the Construction and by €2m due to lower Other Income and other Gain versus Q1:19. EBITDA margin improved further in Q1:20 to 22.5% which is the highest of the last 5 quarters Cash and Cash Equivalents at the end of March 2020 remained largely stable at €294m versus €298m at the end of 2019. Net debt reached €1.2bn up 4.6% vs end 2019.

§  In construction segment revenues declined 52% at €126m due to strategic decision to focus on Greece and in Romania and Facilities Management projects in Qatar, which at March 31 2020 comprise 96% of total backlog. Backlog stands at €2.0 billion, including projects where AKTOR has been declared preferred bidder. EBITDA came at a marginal loss of €1.2m in Q1:20 vs -€38.2m adjusted for non-recurring losses in international PV projects in Q4:19 and a €4.3m in Q1:19

§  Traffic in concession projects in Q1 2020 decreased i.e. -11.0% at Attiki Odos, -10.7%, at Gefyra, -9.5% at Olympia Odos. Traffic at Aegean Motorway increased by 2.1%, Although Attiki Odos traffic volume in April and in May (until May 27th) dropped by ~70% and ~ 39% respectively, traffic has been picking up since May 4th 2020, as containment measures are gradually being lifted. Year-to-date traffic is down by ~28% vs the respective period in 2019.Revenues declined 12% y-o-y at €50m; EBITDA came at €31.3m in Q1:20 vs €30.4m in Q4:19 (+3%) and at €37.3m in Q1:19

§  Following the completion of two wind farms with total installed capacity of 90 MW that were put into trial operation, total installed RES capacity as of 31.03.2020 increased to 491 MW vs 295.5MW at 31.03.2019. In addition, projects with a planned capacity of 88.2 MW are under construction. Although completion was initially targeted for 31.12.2020, due to Covid-19 impact the timetable is extended into 2021. The Government has already extended the deadline for grid connection (and commencement of trial operation) by 4 months for PPAs initially targeted for 31.12.2020. Sales were up 17% at €24m, EBITDA at €19.8m in Q1:20 vs €10.6m in Q4:19 (+86%) and €16.3m in Q1:19

§  Electrical power generation in Q1 2020 reached 263.4 GWh, an increase of 17.5% compared to Q1:19 due to increased installed capacity, despite lower wind conditions during the period. The average annual capacity factor for Q1:20 dropped to 30.1% compared to 35.1% in the same period of 2019.

§  In environmental project financial impact of Covid–19 has been limited, while all necessary measures to secure personnel safety together with unimpeded continuance of operations have been undertaken. A six-month extension (with a six-month renewal option) to the operation of the Attica Mechanical Recycling Plant (AMRP) has been approved on March 10th 2020. AMRP receives approximately 20 thousand tons of municipal waste per month while it has a turnover contribution of approximately € 12 million (Group’s participation amounts to 70%) o HELECTOR, through its 83% participation in a Joint Venture, signed on May 26th 2020 a new contract for the extension of Fyli Landfill (Attica) for the amount of €4.5 million. Turnover reached €22m +22% yo-y, EBITDA at €4.0m in Q1:20 vs -€2.3m in Q4:19 (+278%) and €4.4m in Q1:19

§  Finally, in Real Estate Ellaktor said that Smart Park re-opened on 11.05.2020 following nearly 2 months of temporary closure due to lockdown measures introduced by the government. Since the reopening on May 11th 2020 performance is also being gradually restored. Sales were up 16% in Q1:20 at 2m while EBITDA reached at €1.3m vs €0.9m in Q4:19 (+42%) and €0.7m in Q1:19.

Overall a weak start of the year affected from Covid-19 lockdown and the sizeable reduction of construction segment. In today’s conference call we will be looking for updated information regarding traffic trends after the opening of the economy, construction outlook and any changes related to 2020 capex. Ellaktor trades at 0.5 Q1:20 BV.

The following table summarise results:

ELLAKTOR

2019

2020

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

Q1

Q1

(%)

Sales

358,948

224,598

-37.4% 

EBITDA

61,600

50,500

-18.0% 

EBITDA Mrg

17.2% 

22.5% 

+532 bps 

Net Income

2,614

-8,770

-435.5% 

Net Mrg

0.7% 

-3.9% 

-463 bps 

Conference Call: Monday June 1st 17:00 Local Time for shareholders, 19:00 for bondholders

§  GR           + 30 211 180 2000 or +30 210 9460 800

§  UK           +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§  USA         +1 516 447 5632

§  Other      +44 (0) 203 059 5872

AEGEAN AIR: In response to the government’s announcement on last Thursday’s €115mn aid package to air transport sector, Aegean Airlines said the measures “are step towards the right direction, even though the numbers are rather limited, compared to other EU countries.” “The core support scheme is the employee support mechanism. The program ensures the partial coverage (60%) of the loss of income, in case of reduced employment (Syn-Ergasia program) until 31/12/2020,” Aegean noted, adding “the measures, therefore, must continue and evolve. It is necessary to extend their validity, until the beginning of the tourist season of 2021.”  Moreover, the carrier said, that it intends to apply for loan of €150mn, submitting request to the four systemic banks in the context of the “COVID-19 Enterprise Guarantee Fund” funding, which is accessible to all Greek companies.

Lamda Development: The governing board of listed firm Lamda Development has decided to partially revise the allocation of the funds it raised in a recent 650-million-euro share capital increase. It will now use €12.4mn to acquire a stake in Lamda Marinas Investments SMSA, the company that controls and manages Flisvos Marina at Palaio Faliro in southern Athens. This stake will allow Lamda Development to assume full control of the company formerly known as Lamda Dogus Investments SA, for strategic purposes according to Lamda, after Turkish group Dogus announced its departure from the venture.

Forthnet: BC Partners takes control of Forthnet. The deal for the acquisition of a 33% stake in Forthnet between the BC Partners investment group and the creditor banks of the Greek telecommunications company was sealed last Friday, with the only issue still pending being the bridge funding of €15mn from the British group to Forthnet for the period until the acquisition is approved by the competition authorities. BC Partners will now likely turn its attention to Wind Hellas. The takeover of Forthnet, which operates satellite TV platform Nova, will be examined by the European competition watchdog, as it concerns cross-border concentration due to the fact that Forthnet will likely come under the control of BC Partners’ subsidiary United Corp. Given that Forthnet’s market share in the overall telecoms market in Greece is quite low, and that United’s presence is zero in this country, it seems likely that the approval won’t take long. Although the details of the agreement are not yet known, the structure of the deal between Forthnet’s creditors and BC Partners will be such that will not force United to submit a public offering for the acquisition of the minority stakes in Forthnet. Contrary to what was recently reported, BC Partners will likely buy a smaller stake than 33.4%, and later go on to match the banks’ 36% stake.

JUMBO: The company trades ex remaining dividend for FY 2019 gross €0.062/share as of today (net €0.0589/share).

ELVALHALCOR: The company trades ex dividend for FY 2019 gross €0.03/share as of today (net €0.0285/share).

B&F: On May 28, the company bought 188 ow bonds at €900.88/bond for a total consideration of €169.365K. The company now controls 1,423 bonds or 5.87% of the issue.

GEKTERNA: ICAP reaffirms rating A for the company’s 120mn bond issue.

TERNA ENERGY: On May 28, the company bought 11,000 own shares for a total consideration of €109.49K (€9.9536 avg price per share).

OTE: On May 28, the company bought 53,534 own shares at €12.32/share (total cost €659.577K). OTE now owns 3,185,777 total own shares or 0.678% of share capital.

KARATZIS: HCMC approves ANTKAR’s squeeze out option at €10/share and set cease trading day for the company June 12.

SELONDA: HCMC approves Andromeda’s squeeze out option at €0.10/share for the remainder of the company’s shares with trading ceasing on June 12.

NIREAS: HCMC approves Andromeda’s squeeze out option at €0.23/share for the remainder of the company’s shares with trading ceasing on June 12.

FOURLIS: On May 28, the company bought 12,481 own shares at €3.9429/share for a total consideration of €49.211K. Fourlis now owns 388,809 own shares or 0.7476% of share capital.

AlphaTrust: The company goes ex-right for the 3 for 1 stock split start trading as of tomorrow June 2. 2,319,939 new shares will start trading on June 5.

AlphaTrust Andromeda: AGM on June 22.

MIG: The company will report FY’19 financial results today after market close.

PAPERPACK: The company trades ex FY’19 gross dividend €0.5/share (net €0.4750) on June 4. Payment to be concluded on June 11.

Nafpaktos Textiles: FY’19 results out on June 4. AGM on July 10.

TRASTOR REIC: Trastor concluded the acquisition of 2 real estate assets in Northern Athens area (use for office premises with parking places available) for €34mn.

INTRALOT: AGM approves new up to 10% new share buyback scheme for 2 years at a price range €0.3-€12 per share. Recall that Intralot has already acquired 5.861% or 9,200,033 shares from its previous buyback program.

Hellenic Exchanges: AGM clears FY’19 gross dividend distribution €0.07/share (net €0.0665/share). Dividend ex-date set on June 4 with payment concluded on June 11.

GEKTERNA: The group will report FY’19 results on June 2 before market opening. AGM Jul 2. NO dividend proposal for fiscal year 2019.

Other Corporate Results

ΒΥΤΕ

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

24,003

29,716

23.8%

EBITDA

1,608

1,983

23.3%

EBITDA Mrg

6.7% 

6.7% 

-2 bps 

Net Income

342

599

75.3%

Net Mrg

1.4% 

2.0% 

+59 bps 

MEVACO

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

10,421

13,137

26.1%

EBITDA

797

1,519

90.6%

EBITDA Mrg

7.6% 

11.6% 

+392 bps 

Net Income

-860

447

151.9%

Net Mrg

-8.3% 

3.4% 

+1,165 bps 

AthEx Calendar – Upcoming General Meetings

02/06 Dromeas AGM

04/06: Attica Bank AGM, Mytilineos AGM

10/06: Loulis Mills AGM

12/06: Fourlis AGM

16/06 Cretan Plastics AGM Bankof Piraeus EGM, Bankof Piraeus EGM,

17/06 Elton Chemicals

18/06 Lavipharm AGM Athens Medical EGM , Space AGM

19/06 Thessaloniki Water AGM

24/06 Hellenic Petroleum AGM Karelias AGM

25/06 BYTE AGM, Sidma AGM, PPA AGM, PPC AGM, Plaisio AGM

26/06 Ellaktor AGM, Athens Water AGM, Flecopack AGM, Forthnet AGM, Motodynamics AGM, Quest Holdings AGM

27/06 JumboAGMDividend €0.062, Paperpack AGM

29/06 PetropoulosAGM Intralot AGM

30/06 Intercontinental REIC, HAIDEMENOS AGM

07/07 KRI – KRI AGM, Autohellas AGM

09/07 Aegean Air EGM

15/07Thrace Plastics

16/07 IPTO AGM

17/07 Motor oil AGM. Alpha Trust AGM

19/07 Thessaloniki Water AGM

27/07 Varvaressos AGM

30/07 Trastor AGM

01/09 ANEK AGM

02/09 Newsphone AGM

Results Announcements

02/06   PPC Q1:20; GEKTERNA FY:20

03/06Motor Oil Q1:20

09/06   Quest Q1:20

17/06   Evrofarma FY:20

30/06   Athens Medical FY:19

Kind Regards,

Manos Chatzidakis

Head of research

29 Alexandras Avenue

11473 Athens,Greece

Tel: +30 210 6478755/754

Fax:+30 210 6410139

Email: [email protected]

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