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OPAP (Q2/Η1:18 Results preview):

OPAP will announce Q2:H1 results after market hours. A conference call will follow tomorrow at 16:00 Gr time. We expect a quarter in the tune of Q1:18 affected positively from World Cap, VLTs contribution and Virtual games. In specifics:

§   Sports betting GGR is seen up 2% in Q2:18 at €95m positively affected by World Cup and virtual steady games contribution.

§   Numericals are seen lowen 4.1% at €182m as VLTs and Virtuals cannibalize part of the business.

§   Instant and lotteries in the same manner are seen down 8.8% at €35.7m

§   Finally VLTs are expected to contribute €45m GGR vs €43.4m in Q1:18 and €7.5m a year ago.

§   All in GGR is expected to reach €357.7m up 8.5% y-o-y. On a half year basis GGR is expected to reach €734.9m (+6.8% y-o-y)

§   Further, EBITDA is seen up 30.8% at €68m. Note that this figure includes the new accounting treatment of VLTs goodwill which applied from Q1:18 and backwards. H1:18 EBITDA is expected to reach 155.2m (+18.9% y-o-y).

§   Bottom line is seen at €28m (+27.3% y-o-y) in the quarter and €67.9m (+23% y-o-y) for the first half respectively.

§   We cannot exclude an interim dividend possibly in the tune of 10 cents/share following the trend seen in previous half year announcements.

In the conference call we look for a) evolution of VLTs deployment b) the stance on the new online framework c) outlook regarding capex and business trends. 

The following table summarize our Q2/H1:18 estimates: 

OPAP

2017

2018 Est.

Y-o-Y

2016

2018 Est.

Y-o-Y

EUR mn.

H1

H1

(%)

Q2

Q2

(%)

Total Wagers

          2,126.0

          2,179.1

2.5% 

1,068.0

1,100.0

3.0% 

Payout Ratio

67.6%

66.3%

-135 bps 

69.1%

67.5%

-166 bps 

Sports Betting

188.6

202.4

7.3% 

93.2

95.0

2.0% 

Numerical Games

413.0

370.7

-10.2% 

189.8

182.0

-4.1% 

Lotteries

77.5

73.4

-5.2% 

39.1

35.7

-8.8% 

VLTs

9.4

88.4

 

7.5

45.0

 

GGR

             688.4

             734.9

6.8% 

        329.6

           357.7

8.5% 

EBITDA

130.5

155.2

18.9% 

52.0

68.0

30.8% 

EBITDA Mrg (vs GGR)

19.0% 

21.1% 

+216 bps 

15.8% 

19.0% 

+323 bps 

Net Income

55.2

67.9

23.0% 

22.0 

28.0 

27.3% 

Net Mrg (vs GGR)

8.0% 

9.2% 

+122 bps 

6.7% 

7.8% 

+115 bps 

EBITDA adj.

142.8

155.2

8.7% 

64.3

68.0

5.8% 

EBITDA Mrg adj

6.7% 

7.1% 

+41 bps 

6.0% 

6.2% 

+16 bps 

Net Income adj.

63.7

67.9

6.6% 

30.5 

28.0 

-8.2% 

Net Mrg adj.

3.0% 

3.1% 

+12 bps 

2.9% 

2.5% 

-31 bps 

 

Conference Call details (13/09 16:00 GR-Time)

§   GR        + 30 211 180 2000, + 30 210 94 60 800

§   UK        + 44 (0) 800 368 1063

§   US        + 1 516 447 5632

§   Intern. Dial-in Option + 44 (0) 203 0595872

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