The biggest story in the stock market this year has been, well, no story at all.
That’s because, according to one top technician, the Dow Jones industrial average is on track to see its tightest trading range for the first half of the year ever.
“If you look at the high-to-low range for the Dow Jones industrial average for the first half of this year, as of now it’s just over 6 percent,” technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky said Thursday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”
If this trend holds till the end of the quarter, Krinsky says it would mark the “narrowest first-half trading range in the history of the Dow,” which dates back to 1896.
But while the lack of volatility may scare some market participants, according to Krinsky’s work, it could be a positive development for stocks, at least if history is any indication.
“Since 1896 there’s been 19 times that the Dow has traded in a range of less than 10 percent high to low,” said Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Partners. “Thirteen of those 19 times the Dow went on to gains in the second half of the year, and only three times of those 19, the Dow closed negative.” The average year-to-date return of those 19 occurrences is positive 8.25 percent.
Krinsky added that there could be some increased selling pressure coming in the next few weeks, as seasonally the beginning of summer tends to be a tough time for the market.
“Everyone talks about sell in May and go away, but June is actually the worst month for the market over the last 10 years,” he said. “If we do see any weakness it could happen [in the next few weeks], but that would probably set up a buying opportunity over the back half of the year.”
The big move certainly didn’t happen Thursday, as the Dow closed up 0.0019 percent.