- Gaining momentum on higher appetite for Greek stocks
We expect first-quarter net profit to plummet 60% y-o-y to EUR0.8m mirroring a sharp drop of 42% to EUR41.5m in average daily turnover
Successful completion of Greek 2nd review bailout program, however, drives May equity trading to EUR106m/day, boosting growth outlook
Raised to Overweight; New TP of EUR6.1/sh (EUR4.9) as we cut Rf rate by 0.5pp to 5.5% on lower country risk and rollover DCF 1 year forward
- Q1 2017e results preview
Hellenic Exchanges (HELEX) will announce its Q1 2017 financial results today, post market hours, and host a conference call tomorrow at 16:00 (Athens Time), 1
Key points: We look for sharp Q1 group revenue, EBT and net profit drops of 22%, 59% and 60% to EUR6m, EUR1.1m and EUR0.8m, respectively.
First-quarter earnings slump mostly reflects equity trading income plunge of 41% y-o-y to a meagre EUR1.7m (representing 28% of group total vs 38% in 1Q16), in line with Athens SE average daily turnover (ADT) 42% decline to EUR41.5m vs EUR71.7m over the same period a year ago.
This despite first-quarter average market cap rising 13% y-o-y to EUR44.3bn from EUR39.1bn in 1Q16, +4% q-o-q vs EUR42.7bn in 4Q16. In a similar fashion, Q1 2017e derivatives (trading/clearing) performance, up 3% y-o-y to EUR0.5m, leaves a lot to be desired.
Market data, exchange services, new activities and depository (see table on page 4) should provide a modest Q1 top-line comfort, generating EUR0.9m (+2% y-o-y), EUR0.9m (-4%), EUR0.4m (-7%) and EUR0.4m (-43%), accounting for 15%, 14%, 7% and 6% of total revenue, respectively.
Furthermore, we expect Q1 opex edging 1% lower y-o-y to EUR4.1m, on the back of reduced staff overheads, -2% to EUR2.2m making up 54% of total.
Thereby, we forecast Q1 group EBITDA and EBIT down 47% and 61% y-o-y to EUR1.7m and EUR1m, respectively, against EUR3.2m and EUR2.5m in the same period a year earlier (depreciation +6% to EUR0.7m).