ATHEX Group || Buy | CP EUR 3.08 | TP: EUR 3.75
- Release of 2Q20 results today, after market close
Facts: ATHEX Group (EXAE) will release its 2Q/1H20 results today, post market close. We expect a weak set of results for 2Q20 as the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic and its negative impact on the earnings potential of listed companies, led to the significant reduction of stock valuations.
- In particular, we forecast revenues of EUR 7.1m (-13% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 2.2m (-31% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 1.0m (-42% y-o-y) in 2Q20. According to consensus forecasts (mean, 4 analysts), ATHEX is projected to report revenues of EUR 7.1m, EBITDA of EUR 2.0m and net profits of EUR 0.7m in 2Q20. The company will hold a conference call tomorrow at 16:00 Athens time (14:00 UK time).
Comment: For the first half of 2020, we expect revenues of EUR 15.2m (+7% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 5.3m (+6% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 2.5m (+12% y-o-y). In relation to KPIs, the average daily turnover (ADT) shaped at EUR 75m (+13% y-o-y) in 1H20, the average MCAP stood at EUR 49.4bn (-4% y-o-y), while the average daily traded volume in the derivatives market was 41.6k contracts (-13% y-o-y).
- Market sentiment remained subdued in the first weeks of July (ADT at EUR 51m) due to the combined effect of: a) the poor performance of Greek tourism (20% of GDP) in June and July that created worries about the overall contraction of the Greek GDP this year, b) the increase of the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases worldwide but also in neighbouring countries, and c) the rising tensions between Greece and Turkey for the exploration of undersea natural resources in Eastern Mediterranean.
- As a result, ADT currently stands at EUR 71m y-t-d, while ATHEX’s market capitalization is nearly EUR 44bn.
- From the beginning of the year, the benchmark index has retreated 31% y-t-d, which classifies ATHEX as one of the most worst-performing stock markets, at present.