OPTIMA BANK- 3Q21 results preview+T.Pr. on Motor Oil, Opap & Fourlis

  • OPTIMA BANK – 3Q21 results preview – on Motor Oil, Opap & Fourlis

MOH || BUY | CP: 14.15 | TP: EUR 18.00

3Q21 results preview – Solid quarter is expected amid improving refining environment

Facts: MOH is scheduled to report its 3Q21 results today, after the close of the market, followed by a conference call tomorrow at 17:30 local time (15:30 UK time). Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 125m (+25% YoY, +34% QoQ) and “adjusted” net income of EUR 54m from “adjusted” net income of EUR 44m in 3Q20 and “adjusted” net income of EUR 32m in 2Q21.

  • Including inventory gain of EUR 20m compared to zero inventory in 3Q20, we forecast IFRS EBITDA of EUR 145m (+45% YoY) and IFRS net income of EUR 69.5m (+58% YoY).

On a 9M21 basis, we forecast “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 298m, marginally up 0.3% YoY, and “adjusted” net income of EUR 114m, up 24% YoY, while IFRS EBITDA and net income are seen at EUR 396m and EUR 191m respectively compared to EBITDA of EUR 37m and net loss of EUR 106m in 9M20 with the large change attributed to inventory gains of EUR 98m estimated in 9M21 from EUR 260m inventory losses recorded in 9M20.

9M/3Q21 P&L forecasts

EUR m

9M20

9M21e

Y-o-Y change

3Q20

3Q21e

Y-o-Y change

IFRS EBITDA

37

396

969%

100

       145

+45%

“Adjusted” EBITDA*

297

298           

+0.3%

100

        125

+25%

IFRS Net Income

      -106

        191    

nm

        44

        69.5

+58%

“Adjusted” Net Income*

        91

        114

+24%

44

         54

+23%

   Source: Optima bank, The Company             *excluding inventory effect and one-offs 

Refining | MOH’s “clean” refining margin is expected to show a material improvement in 3Q21 despite elevated feedstock costs (particularly natural gas). More specifically, gasoline cracks extended the rally which started at the beginning of the year on demand recovery and low stocks moving to an average of USD 12.5/bbl from USD 9.0/bbl in 2Q21 and USD 6.0/bbl in 1Q21.

  • Regarding middle distillate cracks, diesel gained c.USD 2.0/bbl to reach an average of USD 6.5/bbl (c.USD 9.0/bbl in September and over USD 11.0/bbl since October), while hard hit by pandemic jet fuel margins settled above USD 4.0/bbl from c.USD 2.5/bbl in 2Q21 and negative margins of USD 1.5/bbl in 3Q20 as aviation demand is gradually restored.

Finally, the HSFO discount of USD 10/bbl was almost unchanged from the previous quarter but it was USD 5/bbl worse compared to 3Q20.  At the same time, crude differentials continued to widen (e.g. Urals-Brent spread stood at c.USD 2.4/bbl from c.USD 1.7/bbl in 2Q21) adding to higher product margins. Overall, we calculate MOH’s “clean” blended margin to have settled at USD 7.7/bbl from USD 6.9/bbl in 2Q21 and USD 6.0/bbl in 3Q20. Currency movements indicate a slightly stronger USD from the previous quarter (average EUR/USD 1.20 vs. 1.21 in 1Q21 and 1.10 in 2Q20).

  • In terms of refinery operations, we expect high refinery utilization rate to boost sales volume by 6% YoY to 3.2m, including also a better sales mix due to higher domestic sales. Finally, we assume that opex have risen by c.22% YoY at EUR 72m mainly driven by higher CO2 emission costs. Overall, we calculate refining division “adjusted” EBITDA to have settled at EUR 85m compared to EUR 48m in 2Q21 and EUR 62m in 3Q20. The upward trend in oil prices is estimated to have generated inventory gains of EUR 20m (same at group level), lifting IFRS EBITDA to EUR 105m.

Marketing | The recovery of auto-fuel demand to pre-covid levels (gasoline +5% vs. 3Q20 and -1% vs. 3Q19, diesel +12% vs. 3Q20 and flat vs. 3Q19) suggests a strong EBITDA for MOH’s marketing division which we see settling at EUR 44m.

  • Power & Gas & other | The recent acquisition of a portfolio of wind farms (it included 11 wind parks with total capacity of 220 MW in full operation) is estimated to have counterbalanced losses in MOH’s electricity retail subsidiary (NRG) as a result of soaring wholesale costs and time lag in tariff increases. Overall, we expect division’s EBITDA to settle at EUR 2m. Finally, we assume EUR 6m loss for other non-core activities.

Other P&L items | Below EBITDA, we assume that depreciation expenses and financial costs will be elevated compared to last year due to the RES acquisition, coming at EUR 41m and EUR 18m respectively from EUR 37m and EUR 7m in 3Q20. The contribution from associates is estimated to have been higher too at EUR 3.5m from EUR 2m in 3Q20 helped by strong performance of the thermal power plant.    

  • Conclusion | The solid recovery of refining margins and demand have most likely more than offset energy and CO2 cost increases until, suggesting that our current annual forecasts (we estimate FY21 adjusted EBITDA of EUR 407m, representing a 32% uplift to last year) are well on track to be realized.

We also believe that despite recent worries caused by limited lockdowns should not derail the positive trend on demand growth while margins should also reflect higher production costs, paving the ground for an even better performance next year. In this context, we reiterate our Buy recommendation for the stock.

OPAP || BUY | CP: EUR 12.80 | TP: EUR 16.00

  • Release of 3Q21 results today, post market close

Facts: OPAP will release its 3Q21 results today, after market close. We expect strong quarterly results aided by the contribution of Stoiximan (the full consolidation of Stoiximan Greece/Cyprus started in December 2020) and the improved performance of land-based games. We forecast revenues (GGR) of EUR 470m (+20% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 173m (+65% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 97m (+84% y-o-y). Our earnings estimates include a non-cash income of EUR 58m, resulting from the new 10-year lottery/betting license, which went effective on 12 October 2020.

  • On the opex side, variable costs (GGR contribution, agents’ fees, NGR-related commissions) are seen shaping at EUR 275m (+13% y-o-y), accounting for 58.5% of total GGR (-190bps y-o-y), while fixed costs (personnel, marketing, other) are estimated at EUR 89m (+55% y-o-y), augmented by the full consolidation of Kaizen Gaming (Stoiximan). For the 9-month period of 2021, we look for GGR of EUR 1,029m (+14% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 368m (+77% y-o-y) and comparable net profits of EUR 166m (+99% y-o-y).

Comment: Per product category, we see sports betting GGR at EUR 140m (+38% y-o-y) in 3Q21, out of which Stoiximan will contribute EUR 45m. We remind that sports wagering had been supported to some extent by Euro 2020 tournament in 3Q.

  • We expect a minor 1% y-o-y reduction in lottery revenues reflecting the high comparison basis in Tzoker, while VLTs GGR are seen at EUR 86.5m (+8% y-o-y), assuming a net daily drop of EUR 40 per machine. In relation to Instant & Passives, we forecast GGR of EUR 25m, down by 7% y-o-y, owing to the high base effect. Finally, online casino games are expected to record gross gaming revenues of EUR 41m in 3Q21 (vs. EUR 3m in 3Q20), out of which Stoiximan is seen generating EUR 37m.

All in all, we forecast GGR of EUR 82m from Stoiximan in the quarter, while OPAP’s online games (sports betting, casino, Tzoker) are anticipated to display GGR of EUR 14m (+32% y-o-y). Excluding online games, we see land-based GGR settling at EUR 374m in 3Q21, down by 1.6% y-o-y, owing to the soft performance of scratch tickets and Tzoker.

  • Overall, we expect strong quarterly results due to the full consolidation of Stoiximan operations, the recovery of the VLTs business and the benefits stemming from the change in the tax regime of the legacy games.

In the conference call that will take place tomorrow at 16:00 Athens time (14:00 UK time), we will focus on management comments about: a) the outlook for the remainder of the year amid a challenging environment (i.e. increased epidemiological burden in Greece, inflationary pressures that erode available income) and b) the next steps of the online strategy (i.e. launch of online KINO). We remain positive on the stock.

Fourlis Holdings || BUY | CP EUR 3.96 | TP EUR 4.50

Release of 3Q21 results today, post market close

Facts: Fourlis Holdings will release its 3Q21 results today, after market close. We expect a solid revenue rebound in 3Q21 compared to the same period of 2020, due to the new selling capacity (IKEA Varna, city IKEA in Piraeus), the lighter restrictions against Covid-19 versus last year and the improved performance of the Greek tourism, which in combination with a healthy gross margin will lead to a solid EBITDA improvement in the quarter.

  • We forecast sales of EUR 131m (+9% y-o-y), EBITDA (Opr) of EUR 16.2m and net profits of EUR 4.8m (+16% y-o-y). For the 9-month period of 2021, we look for sales of EUR 317m (+13% y-o-y), EBITDA (Opr) of EUR 29.5m and net profits of EUR 5.4m (vs. net losses of EUR 3.1m in 9M20). The company will hold a conference call tomorrow at 17:00 Athens time (15:00 UK time).

Comment: On the revenue front, we anticipate revenues of EUR 79m (+11% y-o-y) from domestic operations, while sales from foreign activities are seen shaping at EUR 52m (+7% y-o-y) in 3Q21. Per business segment, we expect quarterly sales of EUR 82m (+8% y-o-y) for the home furnishing business (IKEA) and revenues of EUR 49m (+11% y-o-y) for the sporting goods division (Intersport, The Athlete’s Foot).

  • On the profitability front, we have factored in gross margin of 41.8% in 3Q21 (flattish vs. 3Q20), driven by the sporting goods division (+60bps y-o-y) that will offset the modest decrease in IKEA’s gross margin (estimate for a 30bps y-o-y drop), leading to quarterly gross profits of EUR 55m (+9% y-o-y). Operating expenses are expected to grow by 7% y-o-y in the quarter due to store expansion, driving 3Q21e EBIT at EUR 13m (+16% y-o-y).

Overall, we expect satisfactory quarterly results on easy comps, the opening of new IKEA stores in the last 12 months and the recovery of the Greek economy. However, the outlook has turned cloudy due to the deterioration of the epidemiological data in Romania and Bulgaria in October and very recently in Greece that led to a new round of restrictive measures. In this context, we adopt a more cautious stance in the short-term, remaining positive for Fourlis’ earnings prospects in the medium-term.

Optima bank Research Department <research@optimabank.gr>