MOH Q4:18 1st glimpse: Record breaking volume performance supports refining business – Inventory losses of €128m evaporate reported profitability

MOH Q4:18 1st glimpse: Record breaking volume performance supports refining business – Inventory losses of €128m evaporate reported profitability – Dividend of 1.3 eur/share in line with Beta.


§  On a yearly basis MOH posted clean EBITDA and net earnings of €602.1m (-7.3%) and 333.3m (+0.6%) respectively. On a reported level EBITDA was down 20% and net earnings -18%.


FY/Q4:18 Highlights:

§  Q4:18 processed volume sales all time high quarterly record (3,824,000 MT). FY:18 record year for the refinery at 14,353,000 MT. Q4:18 exports sales at 72%. On an absolute figure MOH posted sales of 9.

§  Strong performance in volumes weighed on refining business which beat by far our estimate of €101m coming at 134.2m. Marketing was expectedly weak at €12m. On adjusted level Q4:18 was flattish in EBITDA (-2.5%) and positive by 17.3% in net earnings.

§  On the other hand inventory loss and other  one offs in the quarter was €128m vs our estimate of just €60m. On a such a big inventory delta the quarter was loss making by €3.6m

§  On a yearly basis MOH posted clean EBITDA and net earnings of €602.1m (-7.3%) and 333.3m (+0.6%) respectively. On a reported level EBITDA was down 20% and net earnings -18%.

§  Group net debt at €250m vs €237m in Q3:18. Overall the group generated 170m of FCF in 2019, 7th consecutive year of net debt decrease.

§  DPS of EUR1.30: interim of EUR0.35 already distributed + remainder of EUR0.95 proposed at the AGM on June 5th, 2019 (Ex-date June 26th)

§  CapEx for 2019 is forecasted at €90m 

The following table summarizes results vs our estimates 

Motor oil

2017

2018 A

Y-o-Y

2018 (Est)

Vs

2017

2018 A

Y-o-Y

2018 (Est)

Vs

EUR mn.

FY

FY

(%)

FY

Estimate

4Q

4Q

(%)

4Q

Estimate

Volumes (MTx1000)

13,651

14,354

5.1%

13,930

3.0%

3,458

3,824

10.6%

3,400

12.5%

Sales

7,843.5

9,491.5

21.0%

8,380

13.3%

2,106.5

2,554.6

21.3%

1,680

52.1%

EBITDA

620.6

495.1

-20.2%

531.9

-6.9%

167.0

18.2

-89.1%

55.0

-66.9%

Adjusted EBITDA

649.6

602.1

-7.3%

570.9

5.5%

150.0

146.2

-2.5%

115.0

27.1%

of Which Refining

576.6

513.1

-11.0%

479.9

6.9%

132.6

134.2

1.2%

101.0

32.9%

of which Marketing & other

73.0

89.0

21.9%

91.0

-2.2%

17.4

12.0

-31.0%

14.0

-14.3%

Net Income

313.5

257.2

-18.0%

273.9

-6.1%

86.5

-3.6

-104.2%

13.1

-127.4%

Adjusted Net Income

331.2

333.3

0.6%

301.7

10.5%

74.4

87.3

17.3%

56

56.6%

Conference call details (Tuesday, March 19th, 17:30 GR- Time)

§  GBR     0808 2380 669

§  GRE     800 848 1114

§  US        1 877 553 9962

  • Manos Chatzidakis
  • Head of research

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