ΚΡΙ ΚΡΙ: Εν αναμονή ενός ακόμα πολύ καλού 3μήνου (μετά την λήξη της συνεδρίασης)

Εν αναμονή ενός ακόμα πολύ καλού 3μήνου (μετά την λήξη της συνεδρίασης)

KRI-KRI (Q1:21 preview):

  • The company will release Q1:21 results today after market close. In the least significant quarter of the year we expect robust growth in the yogurt segment, both domestically and internationally, to continue amid market share gains in Greece and strong demand in Yogurt PL in UK and Italy. On the margin front, lower PL margin business will be more than offset by lower distribution and selling expenses and increased inventory in raw materials that are on an upward trend but will not affect operating profitability in Q1.

§   On the IC front, we expect a gradual recovery in demand, especially in the most important Q2 and Q3, but with signs apparent in Q1 as well.

§   Sales are forecasted to grow by 14.3% to €31.38mn, in line with company’s guidance for strong double digit growth for 2021. We expect international sales to overtake domestic ones accounting for 49.32% of total sales.

§   EBITDA is seen landing 24% higher y-o-y to €5.56mn on EBITDA margin enhancement by 138bps to 17.7%, already meeting form Q1 company’s guidance for FY:21 EBITDA margin in excess of 17.5%, indicating business resilience (despite pandemic), cost control efforts, operating efficiencies and working capital optimization.

§   Finally, net income is forecasted to grow by 27.6% to 3.4mn assisted by lower corporate taxation (22% compared to 24% in 2020).

§   Overall we see a good start for the year with the weight being skewed in Q2 and Q3 performance that weigh in FY figures formation. We remain on an OVERWEIGHT Recommendation for the stock anticipating another year of strong growth signs in the yogurt segment both domestic and internationally and recovery in the IC segment in the post covid era. FY:21 PE 12.8, EV/EBITDA7.9x.

The following tables summarize our estimates for KRIKRI’s Q1:21 financial performance: 

KRI KRI

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

Q1

Q1 Est

(%)

Sales

27,452

31,380

14.3%

EBITDA

4,480

5,560

24.1%

EBITDA Mrg

16.3%

17.7%

+140 bps

Net Income

2,666

3,400

27.5%

Net Mrg

9.7%

10.8%

+112 bps

 

KRIKRI P&L  (€mn)

Q1’20 (A)

Q1’21 Est

  % chng y-o-y

Greece

14.00

15.40

10.00%

% of consolidated sales

51.01%

49.08%

International

12.93

15.48

19.73%

% of consolidated sales

47.09%

49.32%

Ice Cream Greece

1.72

1.89

10.00%

% of consolidated sales

6.25%

6.01%

Ice Cream International

0.69

0.79

15.00%

% of consolidated sales

2.51%

2.52%

Ice Cream Total

2.40

2.68

11.43%

% of consolidated sales

8.76%

8.54%

Yogurt Greece

12.29

13.52

10.00%

% of consolidated sales

44.76%

43.07%

Yogurt International

12.24

14.69

20.00%

% of consolidated sales

44.58%

46.80%

Yogurt Total

24.53

28.20

14.99%

% of consolidated sales

89.34%

89.87%

Other Sales

0.52

0.50

-4.11%

% of consolidated sales

1.90%

1.59%

Total Sales

27.45

31.38

14.32%

EBITDA

4.48

5.56

24.01%

EBITDA margin

16.32%

17.70%

+138 bps

Ice Cream EBIT

-0.59

-0.30

-49.83%

IC Gross EBIT margin

-24.73%

-11.14%

+1,360 bps

Yogurt EBIT

4.11

4.61

12.24%

Yogurt EBIT margin

16.76%

16.36%

-40 bps

Other  EBIT

0.10

0.12

18.78%

Other EBIT margin

19.38%

24.00%

+462 bps

EBIT

3.62

4.43

22.63%

EBIT margin

13.17%

14.13%

+96 bps

NET INCOME

2.67

3.40

27.59%

Net Margin

9.71%

10.84%

+113 bps

 

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