(I)Το χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του μικρομέτοχου@13:38 (22-4-2020)

Back side of sitting businessman who is looking at stock market exchange graph over the cityscape on the big screen background, Business trading and finance concept

ΔΕΗ: Ανακοινώνει την χρήση 2019 αύριο μετά το κλείσιμο της συνεδρίασης.

ΤΙΤΑΝ: Ανακοινώνει το πρώτο τρίμηνο 2020 στις 13/5….

ΑΓΟΡΑ – απαντήσεις: Γράψαμε προηγουμένως σε άλλη στήλη μας …

TZIΡΟΣ: 13,7 εκατ. ευρώ(!)

*****

ΒΕΤΑ SEC – Daily Monitor

22-04-2020

Stocks ended lower as banks suffered significant losses tracking international bourses’ declines on historic fall in oil prices. General index ended at 591.02 points, shedding 2.59% from Thursday’s 606.75 points. The large-cap FTSE 25 index contracted 2.89% to 1,417.58 points. The banks index slumped 10.53%, as Alpha sank 11.76%, Piraeus fell 10.83%, Eurobank decreased 10.03% and National gave up 9.40%. Jumbo diminished 6.34%, Motor Oil parted with 6.28%, GEK Terna lost 4.68% and Public Power Corporation conceded 4.09%. A few blue chips bucked the trend, with Aegean Air rising 6.55%, OPAP climbing 5.34% and Viohalco growing 4.75%.  In total 43 stocks registered gains, 54 sustained losses and 25 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to 66.4 million euros, up from last Thursday’s 46.7 million.

We expect a positive opening in today’s session on technical grounds. Investors seek news from Thursday’s European Council which may give green light to an agreement regarding EU’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak.

Agenda: Elvalhalcor analyst presentation

Macros

Greece/Current Account Balance: Current account balance showed a deficit of €1.1bn in February, widening by €122mn y-o-y, data from the Bank of Greece showed. Wider goods and services deficit along with a decline in the primary income account were cited. The deficit of the goods balance increased due to the worsening of the oil balance, while the non-oil balance of goods improved.

  • Total exports of goods fell by 2.4% at current prices as a result of a sharp drop in oil exports. In contrast, non-oil exports of goods increased by 6.9% at current prices. At the same time, imports of goods increased slightly by 1.3% at current prices.
  • The surplus of the services balance declined as a result of a decline in the transport balance. The travel services balance improved as non-residents’ arrivals and relevant receipts rose by 24.6% and 21.1% respectively. In the January-February period, the deficit of the current account widened by €231mn y-o-y and stood at €2.4bn.

Greece/Economy: Greek economy is seen contracting by 4% this year, Bank of Greece governor Srournaras said. Under the adverse scenario, “the recession will not be more than 8% anyway,” while estimates for contraction of 10% are “extreme,” Stournaras told a panel organized by Delphi Economic Forum.

  • He also predicted that the banks’ NPEs reduction targets as set for the end of 2021 may be delayed for one to two years. He also underlined the need for the creation of a bad bank at a national or pan-European level to tackle the issue of non-performing loans.

Corporate

Banking Sector: DBRS Morningstar says it views the entry of established NPL servicers positively as it shows that resolution of the NPL situation is being taken seriously and can be expedited. The approach both Intrum and DoValue have taken in entering the Greek market is not dissimilar to a common approach taken in Italy towards NPL portfolios: acquiring the banks` servicing staff alongside the NPL portfolio, the agency notes. DBRS argues that this kind of ‘carve out’ has many benefits for both the servicer and the bank “including but not limited to:

  • 1) Banks clean up their balance sheet;
  • 2) Banks reduce staff in line with balance sheet reduction;
  • 3) Allows banks to focus on improving lending models;
  • 4) Servicers acquire staff to deal with increased portfolio;
  • 5) Staff have experience of the asset and IT systems (if also acquired) so little training is required.”
  • DBRS believes the new approach to NPLs in Greece allows new entrants to the Greek servicing market to apply successful strategies from other jurisdictions. “We expect to see similar positive results in Greece as in other euro zone NPL markets as a result,” says.

OPAP: The company has agreed to acquire a controlling stake in the fast-growing Greek and Cypriot business of online bookmaker Stoiximan. OPAP, which already holds a 36.8% stake in Stoiximan’s online operations in Portugal, Romania and Germany, has agreed to buy a 51% stake in Stoiximan’s Greek and Cypriot operations. OPAP said it had received approval from Greece’s competition authority to proceed with the acquisition, and had also agreed to buy an additional stake to bring its total shareholding in the Greek and Cypriot business to 84.49%.

  • The aggregate net consideration planned to be paid in the course of 2020 for all the aforementioned transactions is €163.4m, plus net cash. In addition, subject to performance criteria set for the SMGC, the sellers shall be entitled to receive certain earn-out payments, calculated as a multiple of EBITDA differential for the years 2020 and 2021. Online betting accounted only for about 11% of OPAP’s GGR of €1.8bn.

Stoiximan’s EBITDA came at c€44m in 2019 which led an increase in the value of the operations, while at the same time OPAP opted to increase the stake that will acquire. OPAP has already paid for its stake in TCB Holdings €50m, therefore the total price OPAP will pay in these agreements comes to €213.4m plus the earn out-payments.

  • The implied value for 100% of these operations is €252.5m, plus the earn out-payments. On the €44m EBITDA generated in 2019 from Greek and Cypriot operations the implied multiple is estimated at 5.8x EV/EBITDA. Still, the level of the earn-out payments is unknown and therefore the multiple could substantially increase (the calculation formula is 30%*8x-10x*EBITDA performance deferential).

Stoiximan’s operations in Greece and Cyprus generated GGR of €196.7mn and EBITDA of €44m; in the same period, Soiximan’s foreign operations generated GGR of €48.5m and negative EBITDA of €6m; for FY 2019, Stoiximan Group generated GGR of €245.2mn and EBITDA of €38m.

  • Note that online GGR generated in 2019 in Greece came at €437.3m (19.6% of the total), up nearly 11% from 2018. Sports betting claimed roughly 73% of online revenue, well ahead of casino (23.9%) and poker (2.6%).Overall is a positive development for OPAP as it gains significant market share in the Greek and Cypriot online market (49% and 47% respectively) ahead of the regulation period that starts in Q3/Q4:20.

In other news S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on OPAP by one notch to ‘B+’ and assigned a negative outlook due to the COVID-19 pandemic which has led to the temporary global closure of gaming stores. “We expect earnings and cash flow to weaken materially in 2020 due to the temporary closure of gaming sites,” it said. While the magnitude and duration of the pandemic is uncertain, S&P’s current base case assumes that the virus will peak around mid-2020. “By our estimates, these gaming operators do not face any imminent liquidity risk over the next 12 months, but a prolonged shutdown could strain their credit quality,” says. S&P will review OPAP’s creditworthiness “once we can more clearly assess the effect of the pandemic on their financial metrics and liquidity.”

Creta Farm: Greece’s competition committee has approved the partial acquisition of troubled luncheon meats producer Creta Farms by the Bella Bulgaria’s Greek subsidiary, Impala Hellas. The approval was announced yesterday. The deal includes the full management of Creta Farms and its subsidiary, Teto-Farm S.A.

Thessaloniki Port Authority:  The company announced that in March, due to the pandemic Covid 19 effect, the container and the conventional cargo traffic marked a decrease of 11% and 2.5% respectively, compared to 2019. In April, the Container Terminal and the Conventional Port traffic is expected to be reduced by 12% and 24% respectively, compared to 2019. As the negative impact will become increasingly apparent in Q2 2020 also, it is anticipated, based on current available data, that in the 2nd quarter the throughput of containers and conventional cargo at the Port of Thessaloniki will decrease by some 12% and 27% respectively, compared to the same period of 2019.

Fourlis: The company bought on April 16 1,000 own shares at €3.2050/share for a total consideration of €3.2K. Total treasury stock now amounts to 181,890 shares or 0.3498% of share capital.

Terna Energy: On April 16, the company bought 11,100 own shares at €8.1549/share (€90.52K total transaction cost).

Titan: The company will announce Q1’20 financial results on May 13th vs May 28th initially scheduled. A conference call analyzing Q1’20 performance is scheduled for May 14th. During the period April 14 to April 20 the company bought 42,126 own shares at an average price of €11.6388/share. Titan now controls 6.32% of its share capital (5,208,925 total shares).

OTE: Reportedly Deutsche Telecom reportedly examines the sale of both fixed-line and mobile operations of OTE in Romania in one investor, rather than two separate investors which may cause the reaction of the Romanian govt. Recent reports in the Romanian press appeared to suggest that there was a close agreement for the sale of Telekom Romania to Orange and Telecom Romania Mobile to Diji.

  • In other news the company bought on April 16 56.482 own shares at €11.6396/share for a total consideration of €657.43K. Total treasury stock currently stands at 0.36% of share capital (1,691,100 shares).

ElvalHalcorElvalHalcor will hold its Annual briefing of Analysts regarding the FY’19 financial via teleconference at 18:00 Greece local time.

ELVALHALCOR

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

2,117,789

2,044,506

-3.5%

EBITDA

165,166

137,397

-16.8%

EBITDA Mrg

7.8%

6.7%

-108 bps

Net Income

64,303

41,492

-35.5%

Net Mrg

3.0%

2.0%

-101 bps

Conference call details:  Time: 18:00 (GR) 17:00 (CET) 16:00 (UK) 11:00 (US – New York).

  • GR:          +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800
  • UK:          +44 (0) 800 368 1063
  • USA:        +1 516 447 5632 

Upcoming General Meetings

28/04 European Reliance: AGM

29/04 Terna Energy: AGM

29/04 Sunlight

30/04 Thessaloniki Water: EGM, New BOD member

07/05 Profile: AGM, Dividend €0.025

07/05 Sarantis: AGM, Dividend €0.165

08/05 PPC: EGM, Audit Committee members

14/05 Titan: EGM

12/05 Entersoft: EGMstock split 5:1.

26/05 Viohalco: AGM

30/06 Intercontinental REIC

29/06 Petropoulos 

Stay home, stay safe! 

Manos Chatzidakis

Head of Research 

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