(II)Το χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του μικρομέτοχου@17:25 (24-4-2020)

MANOΣ XATZHΔAKHΣ – BETA SEC: Με το βλέμμα στραμμένο στον προγραμματισμό για την σταδιακή λήξη των περιοριστικών μέτρων η επενδυτική κοινότητα δείχνει σταδιακά να αποκτά ανοδική αυτοπεποίθηση. Παρά τα ακραία και μοναδικά φαινόμενα που παρατηρήθηκαν στην αρχή της εβδομάδας στην διαπραγμάτευση των τιμών του αργού πετρελαίου η εγχώρια αγορά κινήθηκε ψυχραιμότερα και με περισσότερο επιλεκτικό ενδιαφέρον.

  • Η μικρή πρόοδος που συντελέστηκε στην επίτευξη συμφωνίας για την επίσπευση της οικονομικής  βοήθειας μεταξύ των Ευρωπαϊκών κρατών βελτίωσε κάπως την κατάσταση στις αγορές μετοχών και ομολόγων περιορίζοντας τα ακραία φαινόμενα μεταβλητότητας.
  • Σε καλό δρόμο φαίνεται ότι κινούνται και τα εταιρικά αποτελέσματα αλλά και η προετοιμασία των επιχειρήσεων να αντιμετωπίσουν τις επιπτώσεις του κλεισίματος της οικονομίας.
  • Προς το παρόν οι ρυθμοί μείωσης τζίρου ή απωλειών σε λειτουργικά αποτελέσματα μπορούν να θεωρηθούν ότι είναι διαχειρίσιμοι. Το βασικό ζητούμενο είναι και παραμένει η καλοκαιρινή περίοδος και ο βαθμός μείωσης της τουριστικής κίνησης.

Ο Γενικός Δείκτης διατήρησε τα κεκτημένα και χωρίς να δημιουργήσει ανησυχία διόρθωσε ως τις 588 μονάδες, επίπεδο στο οποίο συμπλήρωσε 40 μονάδες υποχώρησης από τα πρόσφατα υψηλά του. Η μείωση των συναλλαγών αποτελεί ικανοποιητική εξέλιξη υποδηλώνοντας εξάντληση των επιθετικών πωλητών, ενώ η ανάκτηση των επιπέδων διαπραγμάτευσης πάνω από τις 600 μονάδες έχει προοπτική να δει αισθητά υψηλότερες τιμές έως την περιοχή κάλυψης του καθοδικού χάσματος των 680 μονάδων.

  • Οι ταλαντωτές βρίσκονται στην απόλυτη ουδετερότητα υποστηρίζοντας το ανοδικό σενάριο ενώ ο εκθετικός κινητός μέσος των 30 ημερών βρίσκεται ακριβώς στο κλείσιμο της Παρασκευής, έτοιμος να δώσει ένα δυνατό αγοραστικό σήμα μετά τις 17 Δεκεμβρίου του 2019.
  • Η αλλαγή τάσης ενδεχομένως να δώσει περισσότερο θάρρος σε βραχυπρόθεσμα χαρτοφυλάκια καθώς θα είναι η δεύτερη σοβαρή τεχνική ένδειξη μεσοπρόθεσμης ανόδου μετά το αγοραστικό σήμα του MACD στα τέλη του προηγούμενου μήνα.
  • Αν και οι τζίροι δεν έχουν την ζωηράδα που θα υποστήριζε την ανέλιξη των τιμών το σενάριο μιας μετριοπαθούς συνέχισης προς τις 630 μονάδες θεωρείται το επικρατέστερο για την ερχόμενη εβδομάδα.

Τελειώνει  ο Απρίλιος ο οποίος φαίνεται ότι θα δικαιώσει την φήμη του ως μήνας που είθισται να κλείνει θετικός αφού υπάρχει προς το παρόν αρκετή απόσταση ασφαλείας από τις 558 μονάδες που ήταν το επίπεδο αφετηρίας του μήνα. Και η επόμενη εβδομάδα παραμένει «λειψή» σε χρηματιστηριακές συνεδριάσεις αφού την Παρασκευή τα Χρηματιστήρια θα είναι κλειστά λόγω του εορτασμού της Πρωτομαγιάς.

  • Το μεγάλο νούμερο το οποίο περιμένουν οι Αγορές έρχεται την προσεχή Τετάρτη και αφορά τα πρώτα στοιχεία για το ΑΕΠ του α’ τριμήνου στις ΗΠΑ με τις συγκλίνουσες εκτιμήσεις των αναλυτών κινούνται στο -4,1%.

Την ίδια ημέρα η Παπουτσάνης θα διαπραγματεύεται χωρίς την επιστροφή κεφαλαίου ύψους 3 λεπτών ανά μετοχή ενώ η ΤΕΡΝΑ Ενεργειακή έχει προγραμματισμένη την τακτική γενική συνέλευση η οποία εκτός από τις συνήθεις εγκρίσεις έχει και θέμα αγοράς ιδίων μετοχών.

  • Τέλος, χωρίς να είναι ακόμα ορισμένη η ημέρα και η ώρα την ερχόμενη εβδομάδα είναι πιθανή η ανακοίνωση των ετήσιων αποτελεσμάτων από Intralot, ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ και Ελλάκτωρ.

Μένουμε σπίτι, μένουμε ασφαλείς! 


  • ΑΝΟΔΙΚΕΣ – ΠΤΩΤΙΚΕΣ 62 – 52 
  • ΤΖΙΡΟΣ: 46,34 εκατ. (ΠΑΚΕΤΑ 0,53 εκατ.)

****

ΕΛΤΟΝ: ΔΗΜΟΣΙΕΥΣΕ ΤΟΝ ΙΣΟΛΟΓΙΣΜΟ ΧΡΗΣΗΣ 2019

  • – ΣΕΒΑΣΤΗΚΕ ΤΟ ΕΠΕΝΔΥΤΙΚΟ ΚΟΙΝΟ και όχι μόνον, δημοσιεύοντας ταυτόχρονα ΣΥΝΟΠΤΙΚΗ ΚΑΤΑΣΤΑΣΗ

FLEXOPACK

________________________________________________________

……….

(I)Το χρηματιστηριακό σημειωματάριο του μικρομέτοχου@09:45 (24-4-2020)

Παρ, 24 Απρ στις 9:27 π.μ.

Daily Monitor

24-04-2020

Stocks traded higher on Thursday, tracking Europe’s mild gains, but volumes remain thin. Banks came to the fore, while OPAP and Titan lent assistance. ECB’s decision to ease collateral rules to pre-empt potential rating downgrades was viewed positive for Greek banks. S&P and DBRS are due to announce their ratings review on Greece tonight

General index ended at 610.48 points, adding 2.53% to Wednesday’s 595.41 points. The large-cap FTSE 25 index expanded 2.69% to 1,467.13 points. The banks index augmented 5.65%, as National outperformed with an 11.68% leap. Piraeus grew 5.07%, Alpha grabbed 4.17% and Eurobank improved 3.20%. 

Among other blue chips, OPAP jumped 9.23%, Jumbo earned 7.51%, Titan Cement climbed 7.08% and Fourlis Holdings advanced 5.33%. In total 74 stocks posted gains, 36 took losses and 23 remained unchanged.  Turnover amounted to 46m, up from Wednesday’s 37.5m.

We expect market to consolidate as traders may cash out some of short term considerable gains.

Agenda: S&P and DBRS credit rating review on Greece, Elton Chemicals & Flexopack FY:19 Results

Macros

Greece/Economy: Greece announced the extension of the restrictive measures taken to curb the coronavirus spread until May 4. Government spokesman Petsas said that plans for an initial loosening of Greece’s coronavirus lockdown will be announced by Prime Minister Mitsotakis early next week.

Greece/Public Debt: Greece’s public debt stood at €331bn in the fourth quarter 2019 down from the third quarter’s figure of €334.3bn, the National Statistics Office of ELSTAT said. Also, revenues and spending rose in the fourth quarter, reaching €25.5bn and €23.9bn, respectively.

Greece/Retail Sector: Supermarkets in Greece saw their turnover jump by 30.7% since the coronavirus epidemic began, between Feb. 24 and up until April 12, with total turnover during the specific period reaching €1.36bn among the best-selling categories of goods.

  • According to figures released by the market research firm IRI, the higher sales during those seven weeks – on mainland Greece and Crete, sans the islands – the last week surveyed, up until April 12, posted a 35.2% increase in turnover from the corresponding week in 2019.
  • Since the beginning of the year and up to April 12, sales increased by 16.1%, compared to the same period in 2019. Overall, the greater Athens area accounted for 54.2% of the turnover of that period; 10.7% by the greater Thessaloniki area.

Corporate

PPC (Results FY:19 review): PPC reported FY:19 net losses of €1.7bn mostly related to Lignite plants impairments. Yet, in Q4:19 PPC posted pre-tax earnings of 26.9m reversing a series of three consecutive loss-making semesters. On a recurrent basis PPC posted satisfactory EBITDA while net debt reduced considerably courtesy of PSO payments. Encouraging signs from FY:20 support the turn-around seen in the last quarter of 2019 In more details:

  • Total electricity demand slightly down by 0.8% with domestic demand up by 2.7%. PPC’s sales down by 5.9% due to reduction of its average market share by 6%
  • Natural gas expense increased by 12.5% to €431.4m from €383.6m due to higher natural gas generation.
  • Energy purchases expense from the System (mainland) and the Network (non-interconnected islands), excluding the charge of electricity suppliers for the Special RES account and negative impact from NOME auctions, increased by €305m due to the System Marginal Price (SMP) increase from €60.4/MWh to €63.8/MWh (negative impact by €61.2 m), higher energy purchases volume (negative effect by €208.6 m) and other expenses (negative effect by €35.2 m).
  • The negative impact from NOME auctions – despite their abolition – continued although reduced by €71.9m (€156m compared to €227.9m) due to the reduction of the difference between SMP and the NOME price, as well as due to lower quantities that PPC delivered in Q3 and Q4 2019.
  • Expenditure for CO2 emission rights increased to €546.5m compared to €369.6m in 2018 due to the CO2 emission rights’ average price increase from €12.5/tn to €23.7/tn, despite lower emissions (from 29.5m tones to 23.1m tones).
  • Total payroll cost including capitalized expense decreased by €49.1m to €817m in 2019 from €866.1m in 2018, due to natural attrition (a decrease of 1,638 employees).
  • In 2019, a €46.1m reversal of bad debt provisions for customers was recorded compared to a €169.7m reversal in 2018.  Provisions for litigation and slow moving materials, decreased to €37.1m compared to €153.8m in 2018, mainly due to the fact that in 2018 provisions for litigation were negatively impacted by an €109.5m provision for overdue interest that IPTO claimed from PPC.
  • In 2019, net financial expenses increased by €18.3m to reach €97.6m compared to €79.3m in 2018 mainly due to the decrease of the interest on overdue receivables from customers. On the contrary, financial expenses decreased by €13.7m mainly due to lower interest rate cost of the debt portfolio.
  • Capital expenditure, amounted to €646.6m in 2019 compared to €746.7m in 2018.
  • Group EBITDA for 2019 was positively impacted by the rebate of €99.3m from the surplus created in the Special Account for Renewables, by the reduction by €243.4m of the liability for post-retirement benefits, as well as by the settlement of a total amount of €122.6m for PSOs for previous years (collection of €194.7 for the period 2007-2011 and negative impact by €72.1m for 2017).  Excluding abovementioned amounts, recurring EBITDA settles at €333.6m. For comparability reasons, EBITDA for 2018 is adjusted at €403.8m.
  • According to the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), the Group and the Parent Company have selected since the listing in the Stock Exchange to value their fixed assets on their fair values. Said appraisal is performed periodically, every three to five years. Results of the previous appraisal were recorded in the 2014 annual financial statements.
  • Consequently, in 2019, an independent firm was assigned for the appraisal of the Group’s property, plant and equipment at December 31, 2019 fair values.
  • As a result of the appraisal, a total net increase of the fixed assets value of the Group by €1,261m was recorded, which based on IFRS had a direct impact on equity, while at the same time, as a result of the appraisal and the negative value arising from lignite assets, an additional devaluation of assets by €2,098.8m was recorded which negatively affected pre-tax profits.
  • The amount of €2,098.8m includes among other the provision for the dismantling of power plants and mines as well as the full restoration of the land in the mines once the facilities cease to operate. All the above amounts do not have a cash flow effect.
  • Adjusted pre – tax losses for 2019 amounted to €424.4mcompared to adjusted pre – tax losses of €347.3min 2018. No dividend proposal for 2019 with AGM scheduled for June 23rd.
  • Starting from Q4 2019, there has been a reversal of the trend, since it is the first quarter that fully incorporates the positive impact from measures taken, with recurring EBITDA amounting to €236.8mcompared to €44.7min Q4 2018.  Adjusted pre-tax profits amounted to €26.9m. compared to pre-tax losses of €131.6m. last year.
  • Net debt stood at €3,687m. on 31.12.2019, a decrease of €5.4m. compared to 31.12.2018
  • In the conference call PPC said that gross margin is expected to be positively impacted in 2020 due to lower natural gas, CO2 and wholesale power costs. PPC guided for a recurring EBITDA in the tune of €700m for  2020 and potentially €800-850m.
  • PPC also said that is ready to build PV portfolio -630 MW in total of which: 200 MW, in Ptolemais, (recent tender resulted in a record-breaking tariff of €49.11/ΜWh for a 200 MW); Additional 30 MW, with secured PPAs at higher prices from previous tenders in  the same area.
  • Weighted average tariff for 230 MW above €50/MWh; another 50 MW, in Megalopolis, southern Greece. PPC also has 160MW in operation, another 100MW under construction and 120MW in tender process.
  • Additional to the above there is the potential for 2.0-3.0GW of PV capacity to be deployed though partnerships in the depleted lignite fields going forward. PPC said that in December 2020 will revert on RES expansion plan, possibly moving on a more aggressive pace.

Overall PPC presented a realistic plan that could modernise operations despite challenges related with current economic environment. We like the stock and we are buyers at current levels since it demonstrates an appealing EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.5x.

The following table summarise reported figures:

PPC

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

4,741,878

4,931,609

4.0%

EBITDA*

148,400

798,900

438.3%

EBITDA Mrg

3.1%

16.2%

+1,307 bps

Net Income

-903,835

-1,685,791

-86.5%

Net Mrg

-19.1%

-34.2%

-1,512 bps

Terna Energy: On April 22, the company bought 13,558 own shares for a total consideration of €109.211K (€8.05 avg price per share).

OTE: The company bought on April 22 56,833 own shares at €11.6902/share for a total consideration of €664.393K. Treasury stock now stands at 1,804,887 shares or 0.384% of share capital. The company will report Q1’20 results on May 14 prior to market opening. A conference call analyzing Q1 performance will follow later in the afternoon of the same day (5pm local Greek time).

KRI KRI: FY 2019 results will be published on May 13th after market close. AGM scheduled for July 7. Dividend ex-date August 20. Dividend payment August 26.

Fourlis: On April 22, the company bought 9,750 own shares at €3.2191/share for a total consideration of €31.386K. Total treasury stock now stands at 0.3795% of share capital (197,340 shares).

Karatzis: ANTKAR SA in conjunction with major shareholder Mr Karantzis files HCMC for a squeeze out option for the 2.36% stake that it does not own in the company at €10/share.

ADMIE Holding: FY 2019 results to be published on May 13 after market close. AGM July 16. Dividend ex-date August 24. Dividend payment August 31.

Thrace Plastics: The company has decided that each of its subsidiaries in Greece and in Scotland that involve in the production of non-woven polypropylene fabrics, which are used as raw materials by manufacturers of surgical masks and other protective medical products will give priority to the supply of these products to local manufacturers of surgical masks and other protective medical products in the Greek and UK markets respectively.

  • Further, utilizing its existing production facilities and infrastructure as well as its strong know-how, the Group made an extraordinary investment of €200K in order to add the required mechanical equipment for the production of Type I, Type II and Type IIR surgical masks.

The purpose of this decision was, on the one hand to take advantage of a profitable business opportunity and, on the other hand, to make a significant social contribution. The new production line has already been installed in the Group’s production facilities in Xanthi and its production capacity is expected to reach approximately 100 thousand masks per day.3

Intralot: The company provided some guidance related to the covid 19 pandemic in its operations. 80% of its personnel work remotely thus preserving business continuity for its customers. However, some delays may be experienced in the product roadmap and in the production of new hardware equipment in Asia or other disruptions in the supply chain from third parties.

  • Lockdowns, store closures, and the lack of sports betting content are the main sources of impact on the company revenues during the high-impact period, either totally such as in Malta, Australia, and Morocco or partially such as in the US, The Netherlands and Chile. 

Group subsidiaries have applied for governmental support programs related to personnel furloughs in Australia and Malta while further mitigation measures are taken in all operations on a risk-based approach, resulting in estimated deferral in Capex of €13m and reductions in Opex of €15m for 2020.

Management estimates that the crisis impact on Group GGR will peak in April and May 2020 and we assume gradual return to near budget figures by November/December 2020 providing that activity rebounds from June 2020 onwards.

  • In the US operation, March and early April data show a high degree of resilience given that in many states a significant portion of the retail network remains open. However, the lack of sports betting content has led to delays in the anticipated contribution to the US operation EBITDA from the nascent sports betting revenue stream.

Intralot estimates a negative impact in the range of €25-30m at Group’s EBITDA level. More details will be provided in the FY2019 results publication and investor call.  INTRALOT has retained Evercore Partners and Allen & Overy, as financial and legal advisors respectively, to review and implement strategic alternatives for the business.

  • The strategic review process will include assessing all available financial and strategic options which may be available to optimize the Company’s capital structure. 

Other Corporate Results:

VIOHALCO

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

4,406,185

4,198,194

-4.7% 

EBITDA

331,857

273,374

-17.6% 

EBITDA Mrg

7.5% 

6.5% 

-102 bps 

Net Income

76,112

8,206

-89.2% 

Net Mrg

1.7% 

0.2% 

-153 bps 

 

NIKAS

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

FY

FY

(%)

Sales

40,954

51,717

26.3% 

EBITDA

-116

877

855.9% 

EBITDA Mrg

-0.3% 

1.7% 

+198 bps 

Net Income

-6,079

-3,077

49.4% 

Net Mrg

-14.8% 

-6.0% 

+889 bps 

AthEx Calendar – Upcoming General Meetings

28/04 European Reliance: AGM

29/04 Terna Energy: AGM

29/04 Sunlight

30/04 Thessaloniki Water: EGM, New BOD member

07/05 Profile: AGM, Dividend €0.025

07/05 Sarantis: AGM, Dividend €0.165

08/05 PPC: EGM, Audit Committee members

14/05 Titan: EGM

12/05 Entersoft: EGMstock split 5:1.

26/05 Viohalco: AGM

17/06 Elton Chemicals

26/06 Flecopack AGM

23/06 PPC AGM

29/06 Petropoulos AGM

30/06 Intercontinental REIC

07/07 KRI – KRI AGM

16/07 IPTO AGM 

  • Results Announcements 

07/05   Coca Cola Q1:20 trading update BtO

13/05   Titan Q1:20 (14/05 Conference Call)

13/05   KRI- KRI FY:19

13/05   IPTO FY:19

14/05:  HTO Q1:20

Stay home, stay safe! 

Manos Chatzidakis

Head of Research 

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