Hellenic Petroleum (Results Q4/FY:20 preview): What to expect fm its FY’20 results today after market hours

  • Hellenic Petroleum (Results Q4/FY:20 preview): What to expect fm its FY’20 results today after market hours

MANOS CHATZIDAKIS – BETA SEC

Hellenic Petroleum (Results Q4/FY:20 preview) The group will announce its FY’20 results today after market hours followed by a conference call. We expect a soft quarter on the back of scheduled maintenance and weak bounce in mid distilled margins vs. Q3:20. Note also that during Q4:20 there has been recorded the narrowest heavy crude oil differentials of the decade surpassing refinery outperformance. In more details:

§  Mid distillate cracks showed slight improvement, jet cracks turned into positive territory in Q4 with inventory normalization and recovering demand. Heavy crude differentials widened slightly (q-o-q) but are still narrower than  5-yr averages as a result of OPEC+ supply cuts and strong demand from Asia.

§  Aspropyrgos facilities downtime for one and a half month in Q4:20 weighed on refinery volumes which came down 15.6% at 2,95K mt in the quarter. As such refining EBITDA came lower by 64.5% at €27m accounting also for contango gains at similar level to Q3:20 as already guided in Q3 call.

§  Expectedly, marketing was soft taking into account lockdowns in Greece and abroad which affected demand. We forecast marketing EBITDA 10.5% lower at €24m.

§  Petchems also seen down by 11.8% on lower volumes and pricing. All in we expect adjusted EBITDA of €64m (-45.8% y-o-y). Taking into account inventory gains reported EBITDA should land at €109m flattish y-o-y.

§  Further down we forecast adjusted net losses of €19.8m or €25m on reported level.

§  On a FY:20 basis we expect Turnover of €5,810m (-34.6% y-o-y), adj. EBITDA of €320m (-44.3% y-o-y) and net losses of €6.8m.

§  Overall 2020 was a tough year as industry margins were exceptionally challenged in the period by low product demand leading to a surplus in middle distillates, while benchmark differentials inverted for a quite a time. Brent price improved towards year-end with vaccine developments being the key catalyst. Given the soft start of the year don’t expect any dividend for FY:20. However the prospect for shareholder remuneration form the sale of gas associates is still valid in 2021 if the sale process is completed in H2:21.

§  In the conference call we will look comments on refinery outlook, RES rollout pace and an update on the sale process for the DEPA.

The following table summarise our estimates:

Hellenic Petroleum

2019

2020 Est.

Y-o-Y

2019

2020 Est.

Y-o-Y

EUR mn.

FY

FY

(%)

4Q

4Q

(%)

Refining Volumes (MTx1000)

15,223

14,123

-7.2%

3,496

2,950

-15.6%

Marketing Volumes (MTx1000)

4,918

4,018

-18.3%

1,183

1,002

-15.3%

Petchems Volumes (MTx1000)

283

265

-6.4%

76

64

-15.8%

Sales

8,890

5,810

-34.6% 

2,052 

1,350 

-34.2% 

Refining Supply & Trading

354.0

170.0

-52.0%

76.0

27

-64.5%

Petchem

93.0

66.0

-29.0%

20.0

15

-25.0%

Domestic Marketing

73.0

37.0

-49.3%

10.0

9

-10.0%

International Marketing

64.0

58.0

-9.4%

17.0

15

-11.8%

Other

-10.0

-10.0

0.0%

-5.0

-2

60.0%

Adjusted EBITDA

574

320

-44.3% 

118

64

-45.8% 

EBITDA

573

-213

-137.2%

110

109.0

-0.9%

Adjusted Net Income

185.0

-6.8

-103.7% 

25 

-19.8

-179.0% 

Net Income

164.0

-368.4

-324.6%

-4

10.6

366.0%

  • Conference call18:00 Athens time.

§  GR +30 213 009 6000 3046 4869

§  UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§  US +1 516 447 5632

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