Eurobank – Quest – ΚΡΙ ΚΡΙ – ΔΕΗ – ΕΛΠΕ – EΘNIKH και ΕΛΛΑΚΤΩΡ: Σχόλια- εκτιμήσεις – παρατηρήσεις κι άλλα τινά…

Eurobank – Quest – ΚΡΙ ΚΡΙ – ΔΕΗ – ΕΛΠΕ – EΘNIKH και ΕΛΛΑΚΤΩΡ: Εκτιμήσεις – παρατηρήσεις, σχόλια κι άλλα τινά…

QUEST HOLDINGS (Q1:21 conference call highlights):

Quest hold a conference call yesterday analyzing Q1:21 performance and remaining 2021 outlook. A sound outlook regarding remaining FY:21 performance with double digit growth across all P&L lines in all segments (with the exception of energy) albeit at a milder pace compared to Q1:21. Key highlights are as follows:

§   FY:20 ordinary dividend doubled to €0.30/share vs €0.15/ share previously guided. Potential further shareholders’ reward on our estimate most likely in Q4:21 (Q4:20 €0.30/share, we opt for a same amount).

§   Altered FY:21 CAPEX guidance to €70mn (all growth CAPEX) vs €50-€55mn previously (€2.9mn in Q1:21).

§   IT services EBITDA margin to be maintained and further enhanced by potential new State ID’s award.

§   Courier services EBITDA margin recovered compared to 2020 when it was impacted by extraordinary one off expenses to deal with increased demand and will hover, on our estimate, on the 15% area in 2021.

§   Another €0.9mn extra profit related to TEK’s 50% stake sale to be booked in Q2:21 P7L and positively affect financial cash flow by another €2.5mn (€2.5mn already recorded in Q1:21 financial cash flow).

§   Likely new solar MW’s capacity 5-6MWs) to be added within the year.

§   Effective tax rate for FY:21 likely to come down to 22% vs state declared official 24% listed entities corporate tax rate assisted by 0 taxation in e-payments in Q1:21 9due to deferred taxation reasons).

§   Remains OVERWEIGHT, updated report with new TP to follow.

The following table summarizes Quest Group Q1:21 financial performance vs our estimates:

QUEST

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

2021

Act. vs

EUR m.

Q1

Q1

(%)

Q1 Est.

Est.

Sales

147.6

216.0

46.4% 

172.1

25.5% 

EBITDA

12.6

18.4

46.3% 

14.3

28.4% 

EBITDA Mrg

8.5%

8.5%

-1 bps

8.3%

+19 bps

Net Income

4.4

10.8

149.1%

6.54

65.9%

Net Mrg

3.0%

5.0%

+207 bps

3.8%

+122 bps

KRI-KRI (Results Q1:21 review): 

The company released Q1:21 results yesterday after market close that came in below our estimates. Delta is due to underperformance of the Greek yogurt market (as a result of strong Q1:20 due to covid) and lower than estimated growth in the international yogurt business. IC was strong both domestic and abroad, albeit from a low y-o-y comparable basis. Yet Q1:20 is not indicative for FY performance as Q2 and Q3 account for the bulk of the year’s turnover and profits.

§   Sales advanced 4% to €28.562mn with strong recovering IC market both in Greece and abroad but lagging yogurt growth, negative in Greece (pandemic effect quarterly comparison) and lower than projected international yogurt growth.

§   EBITDA was a mere 1.1% higher to €4.53mn on higher, on our estimate, PL participation and gross margin pressure especially on the yogurt market to preserve domestic market shares.

§   Net income accelerated 5.8% to €2.82mn.

§   Gross cash flow was €4.59mn, Oper CF at -€1.69mn and CAPEX at €2.3mn leading to a negative FCF figure of -€4mn in Q1:21.

§   Net Debt shaped at €5.81mn vs €1.62mn in FY:20, normal due to the seasonality of the business.

Overall a weak start for the year, worrying some for trends prevailing in the domestic yogurt market (increased competition and gross margin pressure on constant discounts to defend market shares) and recovering IC sector. Yet Q1 in not indicative for FY performance as it is the least important quarter. We remain on an OVERWEIGHT Recommendation for the stock. We will elaborate and return with an update. KRI KRI trades at FY:21 PE 12.8, EV/EBITDA7.9x.

The following tables summarize our estimates for KRIKRI’s Q1:21 financial performance:

KRIKRI

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

2021 Est.

Act. vs

EUR thous.

Q1

Q1

(%)

Q1

Est.

Sales

27.5

28.6

4.0%

31.4

-9.0%

EBITDA

4.5

4.5

1.1%

5.6

-18.5%

EBITDA Mrg

16.3%

15.9%

-46 bps

17.7%

-186 bps

Net Income

2.7

2.8

5.8%

3.4

-17.1%

Net Mrg

9.7%

9.9%

+16 bps

10.8%

-96 bps

KRIKRI P&L  (€mn)

Q1’20 (A)

Q1’21 (Α)

  % chng y-o-y

Q1’21 Est

Act vs Est

Greece

14.00

14.58

4.08%

15.40

-5.38%

% of consolidated sales

51.01%

51.03%

49.08%

International

12.93

13.88

7.34%

15.48

-10.35%

% of consolidated sales

47.09%

48.58%

49.32%

Ice Cream Greece

1.72

2.50

45.45%

1.89

32.23%

% of consolidated sales

6.25%

8.74%

6.01%

Ice Cream International

0.69

0.87

26.27%

0.79

9.80%

% of consolidated sales

2.51%

3.04%

2.52%

Ice Cream Total

2.40

3.37

39.96%

2.68

25.60%

% of consolidated sales

8.76%

11.78%

8.54%

Yogurt Greece

12.29

12.08

-1.69%

13.52

-10.63%

% of consolidated sales

44.76%

42.29%

43.07%

Yogurt International

12.24

13.01

6.27%

14.69

-11.44%

% of consolidated sales

44.58%

45.54%

46.80%

Yogurt Total

24.53

25.09

2.28%

28.20

-11.05%

% of consolidated sales

89.34%

87.83%

89.87%

Other Sales

0.52

0.11

-78.80%

0.50

-77.89%

% of consolidated sales

1.90%

0.39%

1.59%

Consolidated Sales

27.45

28.56

4.04%

31.38

-8.99%

EBITDA

4.48

4.64

3.69%

5.56

-16.39%

EBITDA margin

16.32%

16.26%

-6 bps

17.70%

-144 bps

Ice Cream EBIT

-0.59

-0.35

-41.56%

-0.30

16.50%

IC Gross EBIT margin

-24.73%

-10.33%

+1,441 bps

-11.14%

+81 bps

Yogurt EBIT

4.11

3.95

-3.96%

4.61

-14.43%

Yogurt EBIT margin

16.76%

15.73%

-102 bps

16.36%

-62 bps

Other  EBIT

0.10

-0.08

-174.65%

0.12

-162.85%

Other EBIT margin

19.38%

-68.23%

-8,761 bps

24.00%

-9,223 bps

EBIT

3.62

3.52

-2.55%

4.43

-20.53%

EBIT margin

13.17%

12.34%

-83 bps

14.13%

-179 bps

NET INCOME

2.67

2.82

5.73%

3.40

-17.13%

Net Margin

9.71%

9.87%

+16 bps

10.84%

-97 bps

PPC (Results Q1:21 review): 

PPC posted a satisfactory set of Q1:21 results coming better from consensus on adjusted level. PPC said that is speeding up the diligniitization process, a key development to reduce CO2 charges. Bottom-line came in negative, by €43.7m, impacted by one-off costs. Turnover fell 8.6% to €1.1bn. In more details:

§   Q1:21 marked with increased operating profitability compared to the same period last year, despite higher prices of C02 emissions and energy bought from the wholesale market mainly as a result of the more favorable generation mix and the continuing reduction of payroll cost.

§   Turnover decreased by €104.9m or 8.6% due to lower sales volume by 866 GWh or by 10.4% as a result of market share loss (5.4 percentage points) and domestic demand reduction (by 5.6%).

§   PPC’s electricity generation and imports covered 46.8% of total demand in Q1:21 (43.9% in the Interconnected System), while the corresponding percentage in Q1:20 was 37.7% (33.8% in the Interconnected System), due to the increased PPC electricity generation.

§   Expenditure for liquid fuel, natural gas, PPC and third party fossil fuel, C02 and energy purchases decreased by €154.5m (22.6%) vs. Q1:20

§   Payroll without the impact of one-off items decreased by €14.7 m. to €159.5m in Q1:21 from €174.2m in Q1:20. This reduction is mainly due to natural attrition (reduction by 1,510 employees, from 14,837 at the end of Q1:20 to 13,327 at the end of Q1:21). Payroll cost including capitalized expense amounted to €171.4m in from €186.8m in Q1:20

§   Carbon costs in Q1 increased 10% and PPC has reinstated (since May) a carbon pass-through clause for retail clients.

§   EBITDA were impacted by certain one-off items: a) by the €36.4m expense for the retroactive charge for special allowances from the implementation of the Collective Labour Agreement for the period 2021-2024 and b) by the provision for personnel’s severance payment of €2.9m. Likewise, Q1:20 EBITDA had been negatively impacted a) by the provision for personnel’s severance payment of €85m, and b) positively impacted by the Credit invoice of €44.8 m DEPA for gas procurement cost for previous years. Including the aforementioned one-off items, Q1:21 EBITDA came at in €186.3m compared to €2183 m in Q1:20.

§   Capital expenditure amounted to €90.5m in Q1:21 compared to €78.1m in Q1:20.Net debt stood at €3,272m on 31.3.21, remaining practically stable compared to 31.12.20 (€3,283.6m).

§   PPC said that in April, two additional lignite units with a total net capacity of 560 MW ceased operation. At the same time, the company continue to take actions to increase presence in Renewables with the promotion of the relevant investments, the securing of additional licenses for PVs, including floating ones, as well as the recent signing of the first loan agreement for the construction of a portfolio of PV parks with a total capacity of 230 MW in Ptolemais.

§   Despite the improved performance in the first quarter, PPC expects to settle at a lower level in the second quarter due to higher energy prices and C02. For the full year, target remains of repeating the 2020 performance in terms of recurring EBITDA (c900m)

§   In other news PPC has reportedly selected Terna Energy for the development of a 50 MW solar photovoltaic park in the lignite mines area of Magalopoli Peloponnese. The project is budgeted at €23.5mn. The construction is scheduled for completion by end of 2022. PPC has said that the project will operate mainly under a corporate Power Purchase Agreement between its wholly-owned subsidiary PPC Renewables and the parent company.

§   Overall a satisfactory set given the challenges of increasing input costs and the transition to a greener company. Initial guidance in place, we remain positive for the stock as HEDNO tender will unveil significant value.

The following table summarise results vs. consensus estimates:

PPC

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

2021 Est.

Act. vs

EUR thous.

Q1

Q1

(%)

Q1

Est.

Sales

1,218.9

1,114.0

-8.6%

1,118.0

-0.4%

EBITDA

218.3

186.3

-14.7%

211.4

-11.9%

EBITDA Mrg

-22.5%

16.7%

+3,922 bps

18.9%

-218 bps

Net Income

-11.1

-43.7

-293.7%

-11.45

-281.7%

Net Mrg

-0.9%

-3.9%

-301 bps

-1.0%

-290 bps

Eurobank (Results Q1:21 review): Eurobank announced a good set of Q1:21 results coming better from our estimates on improving core income and slightly lower loan losses. In more details:

§   NII was down 1.4% y-o-y at €335m; up 1.6% q-o-q with commission income up 6.9% y-o-y at €99m; down 9.3% q-o-q. Operating expenses y-o-y dropped 3.1% in Greece and 2.2% for the Group. As a results core pre-provision income (PPI) came higher by 3.0% y-o-y at €218m; up 0.7% q-o-q.

§   Eurobank reported Q1:21 recurring profits of €72m vs €60m in the year-ago period.  Net profit after restructuring costs and other one-off items reached €70m vs. €57m a year ago. The performance of the first three months is in line with the profitability targets for 2021, the bank said.

§   CoR in line with guidance at 1.4% on net loans; Management optimistic for H2:21 guided for 1.1% – 1.2% on the back of improvement in asset quality. he quarterly increase in the NPE stock along with the NPE formation of 72 million euros were substantially lower than expected, the bnak said.

§   Eurobank disbursed more than €1.0bn in new loans in the first quarter., expected to accelerate in H2:21. Eurobank also guided for NII -3%, fees +10%, opex flattish, leading to Core PPI +1% y-o-y.

§   NPE ratio was 14.2% or 7.4% pro-forma for the Mexico securitization. Management expects €0.9bn positive formation in 2021 as moratoria expire, but €3.3bn Mexico securitisation underway should bring year-end NPE ratio to 9% (from 13% now), falling to 6% in 2022 with coverage at c62%

§   CET1 was down 90bps q-o-q to 13.0% and total CAD increased to 15.5% negatively impacted IFRS9 and other transitions for the FY’21. The fully-loaded Basel III CET 1 stood at 11.9%.

§   Eurosystem funding, through the TLTRO III program, increased from €8.0bn in December 2020 to €8.8bn in March 2021.

§   Management stated that they are looking for international expansion organically or through M&As.

§   Eurobank tangible equity at end March 2021 was €5.06bn or €1.36 per share.

Overall a good start and a supportive outlook for the rest of year and 2022. Eurobank trades 0.56x its T/BV

The following table summarise results vs. our estimates:

Eurobank

Act.

Act.

Est.

Overview

Est.

(In Million Euro)

1Q20

4Q20

1Q21

QoQ

YoY

1Q21

vs Est.

NII

339.4

329.3

334.7

1.6%

-1.4%

330

1.4%

Fee income

92.3

108.8

98.7

-9.3%

6.9%

100

-1.3%

Trading

5

201

15

-92.4%

181.5%

10

52.6%

Other Income

-3

-4

-2

5

Total income

434.4

635.1

446.5

-29.7%

2.8%

445

0.3%

Operating costs

-220.2

-222

-215

2.8%

2.1%

-215

-0.2%

Pre-provision-profits

214.2

413.4

231.0

-44.1%

7.9%

230

0.4%

Provisions

-126.0

-146

-131

9.9%

-4.2%

-133

1.3%

Other results

-14

-18

-1

95.2%

93.6%

-7

PBT

74.3

249.2

98.8

-60.4%

33.0%

90

9.8%

Corporate taxes

15

53

29

-46.3%

95.7%

26

9.8%

Net profit

60

195.9

70.1

-64.2%

17.6%

64

9.8%

Discontinued operations

0

0

0

0

Net profit

59.6

195.9

70.1

-64.2%

17.6%

64

9.8%

Minorities

0

0

0

0

Attributable net profit

59.6

195.9

70.1

64

NBG (Results Q1:21 preview): 

NBG will announce Q1 21 results today after market hours followed by a conference call at 18:00 GR-Time. One off gains from GGB’s SWAP will boost bottom line profitability at €390m. On core income NBG is expected to post a improving y-o-y NII by 4.7% and flattish fees. On OpEx we expect significant improvement with recurring cost below the €200m mark reflecting cost savings from past year VRS. Declining Cost of Risk at 100bps on net loans should normalize loan losses at €80m while we do not expect any other defaults from Moratoria.

End March tangible book slightly above €5bn on IFRS-9 phase-in impact and Q1:21 profit. NBG trades 0.44x its T/BV and at current levels seems appealing vs. peers given the significant NPEs reduction and the 2021 – 2022 financial targets for RoTE of 9%.

Focus in the conference call to implementation of next step actions related financial targets and evolution of NPEs clean-up.

The following table summarise our estimates:

NBG

Act.

Act.

Est.

Latest read

Overview

(In Million Euro)

1Q:20

4Q:20

1Q:21

QoQ

YoY

NII

277

314

290

-7.6%

4.7%

Fee income

66

68

66

-2.8%

0.0%

Trading Income

788

283

320

12.9%

-59.4%

Insurance/Other Income

-12

-15

-13

Total income

1,119.0

649.9

663.0

2.0%

-40.8%

Operating costs

-207

-268

-193

28.0%

6.8%

Pre-provision-profits

912.0

381.9

470.0

23.1%

-48.5%

Provisions

-486

-431

-80

81.4%

83.5%

Other results

-117

-19

-5

73.3%

95.7%

PBT

309.0

-67.9

385.0

667.0%

24.6%

Corporate taxes

4

-11

4

136.4%

0.0%

Net profit (continued)

305

-79

389

593.0%

27.5%

Discontinued operations

0

-343

0

Net profit

305

-422

389

192.2%

27.5%

Minorities

1

1

1

0.0%

0.0%

Attributable net profit

306

-423

390

192.2%

27.5%

Conference call Details (18:00 GR-Time)

§   Greece:                                + 213 009 6000

§   UK (local & International)       + 44 (0) 203 059 5872

§   UK (TF)                                + 44 (0) 800 368 1063

§   US:                                      + 1 516 447 5632

Hellenic Petroleum (Results Q1:21 review): 

Hellenic Petroleum announced an expectedly weak set of results coming above our estimates on higher income from associates (+20m). Refinery EBITDA was particularly low affected also from Elefsina maintenance. On the flip side Petchems saved the day posting the best ever quarterly figures coming at in €36m of EBITDA. In more details:

Hellenic Petroleum reported a weak recurring first quarter performance, with adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization amounting to 60 million euros. Recurring first quarter profits stood at €2m. On a reporting basis, EBITDA stood at €176m and net income at €90m on inventory €124m gains vs. €540m inventory losses.

  • Still, international refining performance continues to be affected by reduced transport fuels demand and especially aviation fuel, due to travel restrictions. Regarding the Greek fuels market demand, Q1:21 was the lowest on record, as restrictions on travelling were in place throughout the quarter. Net debt sharply up at 2.2bn on seasonal working capital needs vs. €1,87bn end 2020.

The refiner expects a substantial improvement, as the progress in vaccinations will increase domestic traffic and air travel in an important period for tourism especially for our country stating that Q1:21 will be most likely the worst quarter in FY:21.

  • Management said that has taken FID for an expansion project in the Thessaloniki polypropelyne unit adding 60kMT of capacity (~20% upgrade of total petchem volumes) with an estimated capex of €35m and a 2 year development period. In April 2021, the Group updated its strategy, considering the accelerating energy transition, clarifying its objectives regarding Environment – Society – Governance (ESG), as well as the levers to achieve them. Renewables becoming key growth area accounting for >75% of growth capex in the medium term.

The following table summarise results vs our estimates:

Hellenic Petroleum

2020

2021

Y-o-Y

2021 (Est.)

Vs Est.

EUR mn.

Q1

Q1

(%)

Q1

(%)

Refining Volumes (MTx1000)

3,883

3,410

-12.2%

3,551.0

-3.97%

Marketing Volumes (MTx1000)

1,050

852

-18.9%

950.0

-10.32%

Petchems Volumes (MTx1000)

76

72

-5.3%

65.0

10.77%

Sales

1,919

1,722

-10.3%

1,940

-11.24%

Refining Supply & Trading

85

6

-92.9%

12.0

-50.00%

Petchem

20

36

80.0%

24.0

50.00%

Domestic Marketing

12

10

-16.7%

7.0

42.86%

International Marketing

15

10

-33.3%

12.0

-16.67%

Other

-4

-4

0.0%

-4.0

0.00%

Adjusted EBITDA

128

58

-54.7%

51

13.73%

EBITDA

-416.0

176.0

142.3%

149

18.12%

Adjusted Net Income

44.0

2.0

-95.5%

-24.0

108.33%

Net Income

-341.0

90.0

126.4%

54.0

66.67%

Inventory one offs

-540

124

-123.0%

98

26.53%

Other One offfs

4

6

Capital Employed

3,971.0

4,183.0

5.3%

Net Debt

1,522.0

2,240.0

47.2%

CapEx

36.0

40.0

11.1%

Ellaktor (Q1:21 results review):

  • Ellaktror reported wider losses in the first quarter to €9.9m against a loss of €8.8m in the year-ago period. Group EBITDA stood at €40m vs. €51m in the first quarter of 2020. Consolidated revenues dropped 14% y-o-y to €193m.
  • Profit After Tax stood at -€9.1m vs -€5.1m in Q1:20. Administrative expenses stood at €12m vs €16m or -24% yoy, marking the lowest level of administrative expenses in 9 quarters. As per segment:

§   The decrease in turnover was mainly due to Construction, as revenue in this segment decreased by 33m euros. Revenues declined due to liquidity constraints, resulting in the slowdown of several projects. Management anticipates that the €50m bridge bond loan, and the subsequent €100m share capital increase (part of ELLAKTOR’s €121m SCI), will resolve liquidity constraints going forward. Backlog at €1.7bn.

§   Concessions recorded a decrease in revenue of 10m euros. Attiki Odos traffic reduction was marginal at -0.1% YTD, as the lockdown measures in April-May 2021 impacted traffic significantly less compared to April-May 2020. Alimos Marina fully consolidated as of January 1st 2021, with EBITDA of €0.3m in Q1΄21. EBITDA at €20m in Q1’21 vs €31m in Q1:20

§   In RES revenue and EBITDA increase due to increased installed capacity, currently at 493MW, and higher wind capacity factor (33% in Q1:21 vs 31% Q1:20) • Early stages of planned co-development with EDP Renewables of up to ~500MW underway. EBITDA at €28m in Q1’21 vs €20m in Q1:20.

§   Environment segment revenue increase is mainly attributed to increased completion rate of construction projects. Biogas facility in Mavrorachi landfill completed bringing the total installed capacity from landfill gas of c.35MW. EBITDA at €4.3m in Q1’21 vs €4.0m Q1:20.

§   Finally, Real Estate was impacted by COVID-19 and the lockdown measures on the economy, as well as from the State mandated 40% rent exemption  The Official Gazette for the approval of the Presidential Decree of “Cambas Park” is expected to be published paving the way forward for the investment  EBITDA at €0.8m vs €1.3m in Q1:20

§   Group Cash and Other Liquid Assets stood at 403 million euros as of end March vs 406m euros at the end of the previous quarter. Net debt, excluding Moreas, stood at 715 million euros as at 31.03.2021, compared to €707m on 31.12.2020.

As corporate tax rate reduced to 22% (from 24%) on 12.05.2021, Ellaktor said that this tax rate decrease in Q1’21 would result in a benefit of €2.3m (i.e. PAT at -€6.8m vs -€9.1m).

The following tables summarise segmental performance:

ELLAKTOR

2021

2021

Y-o-Y

EUR mil.

Q1

Q1

(%)

Sales

224.6

193.0

-14.1%

  Constructions

129.5

96.5

-25.5%

  Concessions

50.4

40.3

-20.0%

  Renewables

23.9

32.5

35.6%

  Environment

22.4

24.3

8.6%

  Real Estate

1.8

1.3

-31.7%

  Other/Eliminations

-3.4

-1.8

46.4%

EBITDA

50.5

40.2

-20.4%

EBITDA Mrg

22.5%

20.8%

-166 bps

  Constructions

-1.2

-9.8

-693.0%

  Constructions Mrg

-1.0%

-10.1%

-917 bps

  Concessions

31.3

19.5

-37.6%

  Concessions Mrg

62.0%

48.4%

-1,363 bps

  Renewables

19.8

27.6

39.6%

  Renewables Mrg

82.7%

85.2%

+244 bps

  Environment

4.0

4.3

5.5%

  Environment Mrg

18.1%

17.6%

-50 bps

  Real Estate

1.3

0.8

-38.8%

  Real Estate Mrg

69.8%

62.5%

-731 bps

  Other/Eliminations

-4.7

-2.2

51.8%

Net Income AM

-8.8

-10.0

-14.0%

Net Mrg

-3.9%

-5.2%

-128 bps

 

ΜΑΝΟΣ ΧΑΤΖΗΔΑΚΗΣ