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Hellenic Petroleum (Results Q1:21 preview):
Hellenic Petroleum will announce its Q1:21 results today after market while a conference call will follow at 18:00 GR-Time.
- In a nutshell:
Adverse refining environment and particularly low crack margins across the board are set to push refining EBITDA at the lowest levels since 2014 by a mere €12m. Marketing also is seen affected from lockdowns with domestic figure down 41.7% and international marketing also down by 20%.
- On the flip side, Petchems had a decent quarter posting EBITDA of €24m up 20% y-o-y. Adjusted EBITDA should land at €51m. On a reported level inventory gains of €98m will make for €149m EBITDA vs €416m losses as Q1:20 inventory losses came at €544m.
Adjusted net loss in the quarter came at €24m vs. net profits of €44m in Q1:20. Refining margins have bounced in Q2:21 yet Ural crude oil prices continue to trade lower from brent benchmark by a considerable margin.
- Focus in the conference call: Outlook for H2:21, indications of demand from the gradual lift of restrictions in the economy, RES expansion and DEPA tender offer.
The following table summarise our estimates:
Hellenic Petroleum |
2020 |
2021 |
Y-o-Y |
EUR mn. |
Q1 |
Q1 Est. |
(%) |
Refining Volumes (MTx1000) |
3,883 |
3,551 |
-8.6% |
Marketing Volumes (MTx1000) |
1,050 |
950 |
-9.5% |
Petchems Volumes (MTx1000) |
66 |
65 |
-1.5% |
Sales |
1,919 |
1,940 |
1.1% |
Refining Supply & Trading |
85 |
12 |
-85.9% |
Petchem |
20 |
24 |
20.0% |
Domestic Marketing |
12 |
7 |
-41.7% |
International Marketing |
15 |
12 |
-20.0% |
Other |
-4 |
-4 |
0.0% |
Adjusted EBITDA |
128 |
51 |
-60.2% |
EBITDA |
-416.0 |
149.0 |
135.8% |
Adjusted Net Income |
44.0 |
-24.0 |
-154.5% |
Net Income |
-341.0 |
54.0 |
116.7% |
- Conference call Details (18:00 GR-Time)
§ Greece: + 213 009 6000
§ UK (local & International) + 44 (0) 203 059 5872
§ UK (TF) + 44 (0) 800 368 1063
§ US: + 1 516 447 5632
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