Eκτιμήσεις της Beta Sec για το 6μηνο της Μυτιληναίος (αύριο, πριν το άνοιγμα)

MYTILINEOS

Mytilineos (H1:20 results preview): Mytilineos is scheduled to release H1:20 results tomorrow before the opening of the market followed by a conference call after the trading session. We forecast a resilient first half set given the economic challenges of Covid-19 situation which expectedly weighed in electricity demand and metallurgy while EPC business is on a transition era. In more details: 

§  Group sales are seen lower by 9% in courtesy of the alumina and aluminium prices which came lower by 29% and 12% y-o-y respectively in the first six months of 2020. EPC segment is also expected lower by 5.8% as the group already guided for a gradual shift to solar business vs. traditional EPC activity. Lower SMP prices will weight on energy segment which is seen lower by 5.8% despite considerable market share gain in retail vs. H1:19.

§  On the EBITDA we forecast energy segment to stay positive y-o-y contributing €61m up 21.3% mitigating EPC decrease on expectedly lower margins (-7% almost split to half EPC EBITDA margins) as well Metallurgy margin erosion. All in we see group EBITDA of €139.2m down -20.6% vs. H1:20.

§  Further down we pencil in €45m for depreciation charges, €17m for FX and other and €19m taxation to reach net income of €60.5m.

§  On a quarterly basis we see Group sales, EBITDA and net income of €367.8m (-22.9% y-o-y), €58.6m (-29.7% y-o-y) and €24.1m (-24.5 y-o-y) reflecting the challenging environment of the second quarter.

§  In the conference call we look for comments regarding the segmental outlook for the rest of the year as LME prices bounced, any potential hedging and cotango strategies in place and updates on new CCGT investment and RES expansion. 

Mytilineos Group is in good shape to manage the Covid-19 crisis despite the drop seen in H1. Strong financial position and relatively inelastic nature of businesses along with continuous cost optimisation efforts point to an improved performance for the second half of 2020. We believe that current levels are a good entry point as the Stock trades 11x its 2020 forecasted earnings. 

The following table summarise our half year estimates per segment: 

Segment

H1:20 Est.

H1:19

Y-o-Y (%)

Q2:20 Est.

Q2:19

Y-o-Y (%)

Metallurgy

244.5

294.6

-17.0% 

 

 

 

EPC

222.0

235.7

-5.8% 

 

 

 

Energy

434.0

460.6

-5.8% 

 

 

 

Group Sales

900.5

990.9

-9.1% 

367.8

477.0

-22.9% 

Metallurgy

64.7

92.6

-30.1% 

 

 

 

EPC

15.5

35.0

-55.7% 

 

 

 

Energy

61.0

50.3

21.3% 

 

 

 

Other/Disc.

-2.0

-2.6

 

 

 

Group EBITDA

139.2

175.3

-20.6% 

58.6

83.3

-29.7% 

Net Profits after Minor.

60.5

81.6

-25.9% 

24.1

31.9

-24.5% 

Metallurgy EBITDA margin (%)

26.5%

31.4%

-497 bps 

 

 

 

EPC EBITDA margin (%)

7.0%

14.8%

-787 bps 

 

 

 

Energy EBITDA margin (%)

14.1%

10.9%

+313 bps 

 

 

 

Group EBITDA margin (%)

15.5%

17.7%

-223 bps 

15.9%

17.5%

-153 bps 

 

Conference call details: Wednesday, 9th September 2020 17:15 GR-Time

§  GR: +302111802000 or +302130096000

§  UK: +44 (0) 203 059 5872 or +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§  US +1 516 447 5632

Kind regards,

Manos Chatzidakis

Head of research

29 Alexandras Avenue

11473 Athens,Greece

Tel: +30 210 6478755/754

Fax:+30 210 6410139

Email: [email protected]

Disclaimer: Beta Securities S.A. 
This e-mail is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you
should not copy it, re-transmit it, use it or disclose its contents, but
should return it to the sender immediately and delete the copy from your
system.

Beta Securities S.A. is not responsible for, nor endorses, any
opinion, recommendation, conclusion, solicitation, offer or agreement or any
information contained in this communication.


Beta Securities S.A.  cannot accept any responsibility for the accuracy or
completeness of this message as it has been transmitted over a public
network. If you suspect that the message may have been intercepted or
amended, please call the sender admin.