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OPAP (H1/Q2:2020 results preview): OPAP will announce H1/Q2:20 results tomorrow after market hours followed by a conference call on Thursday. With April and most of May practically inactive due to the lockdown the Group is expected to post the worst quarter in its entire history in terms of profitability. However, June trends reversed and gained some momentum as sporting events resumed and shops and VLTs venues reopened by end of May.

  • In more details: 

§  In Q2:20 wagers drop is expected to exceed 50% reflecting the shutdown in land based network and the absence of major sports events. Sports betting expectedly will account for just 1/3 of Q2:19 GGR while the same holds for VLTs (practically only June was available and fully operational). On the other hand, Joker collected interest due to online, jackpots and extra draws offsetting a small part of Kino weakness while lotteries are expected to post a drop of 64% in the quarter. Total Q2:20 GGR is expected at €151m.

§  Bellow revenues we expect some cost containment related to IT and marketing while payroll costs are seen flat. EBITDA will settle at €17m.

§  Net loss in Q2:20 is estimated at €10m, while for H1:20 net income is forecasted at €23.5m, 64.4% lower y-o-y.

§  Note that OPAP in the Q1:20 conference call (10 June) said that gross cash position was at €604m pointing to half year net debt at €590m assuming a cash burn of €15m for each of the two months the lockdown took place.

§  In the conference call we look for statements regarding the percentage of normalization of turnover as protocols in place may affect land based activity, Stoiximan consolidation and potentially colour on the 2021 -2030 GGR taxation given the October deadline. 

The following table summarise our estimates: 

OPAP

2019

2020

Y-o-Y

2019

2020

Y-o-Y

EUR mn.

H1

H1 Est.

(%)

Q2

Q2 Est.

(%)

Total Wagers

          2,111.3

          1,392.0

-34.1% 

1,032.1

493.0

-52.2% 

Payout Ratio

65.1%

65.2%

+12 bps 

65.1%

69.4%

+427 bps 

Sports Betting

202.4

120.0

-40.7% 

95.0

32.5

-65.8% 

Numerical Games

371.5

242.0

-34.9% 

182.8

88.5

-51.6% 

Lotteries

74.2

39.5

-46.7% 

36.4

13.0

-64.3% 

VLTs

89.4

83.0

-7.2% 

46.0

17.0

-63.1% 

GGR

             737.5

             484.5

-34.3% 

        360.2

           151.0

-58.1% 

EBITDA

157.4

98.5

-37.4% 

70.2

17.0

-75.8% 

EBITDA Mrg (vs GGR)

21.3% 

20.3% 

-101 bps 

19.5% 

11.3% 

-823 bps 

Net Income

66.1

23.5

-64.4% 

26.2 

-10.0 

-138.2% 

Net Mrg (vs GGR)

9.0% 

4.9% 

-411 bps 

7.3% 

-6.6% 

-1,390 bps 

Conference call details: Thursday, 10th September 2020 16:00 GR-Time

§  GR: +302111802000

§  UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§  US +1 516 447 5632

Kind regards,

Manos Chatzidakis

Head of research

29 Alexandras Avenue

11473 Athens,Greece

Tel: +30 210 6478755/754

Fax:+30 210 6410139

Email: [email protected]

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