Εκτιμήσεις για το 6μηνο που ανακοινώνει σήμερα ο ΤΙΤΑΝ

Titan (H1:19 results preview): 

Titan will announce H1:19 results today after Euronext and AthEx market hours. A conference call is scheduled at 19:00 GR-time to discuss results with the management. Consensus forecasts H1:19 turnover at 786.4m (+10.4% y-o-y), EBITDA of €120.2m (-1.7% y-o-y) and Net income of just €11.6m (+53.3% y-o-y). In more details:


First quarter trends are about to repeat in Q2:19 thus the group is heading for another weak quarter.


Despite election period Greece is expected up in the tune of 7% on an another soft quarter. US momentum is expected to support sales in the tune of 11% yet on lower margins. On the other hand, increased competition in Turkey and Egypt and unfavorable FX will suppress sales by 5% with marginal EBITDA contribution. Finally, South East Europe sales are expected to post a moderate rise of 5% on improving pricing and volumes.

Conference call will focus on outlook across geographies specifically how the situation in Egypt evolves and domestic demand outlook after recent government announcements for five large scale urban projects and Helliniko.

Note that on July 18, Titan Cement announced the successful outcome of the voluntary share exchange tender offer submitted by ΤCI to the shareholders of TITAN, as the prerequisite of the minimum number (75%) of the ordinary and preference shares of TITAN that should have been tendered to TITAN Cement International SA, has been met with an acceptance rate of 93% for the ordinary shares and 92.3% for the preference shares.

Titan trades at 7.6x EV/EBITDA and 15x 2019 earnings, yet we see consensus figures stand above running rates leaving room for downgrading estimates. 

The following table summarizes consensus estimates: 

ΤΙΤΑΝ

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

2018

2019

Y-o-Y

EUR thous.

Η1

Η1 Est.

(%)

Q2

Q2 Est.

(%)

Sales

712,505

786,350

10.4% 

390,036 

423,646 

8.6%  

EBITDA

122,217

120,200

-1.7% 

78,702 

75,857 

-3.6% 

EBITDA Mrg

17.2% 

15.3% 

-187 bps 

20.2% 

17.9% 

-227 bps 

Net Income

24,843

11,600

-53.3% 

23,899 

18,940 

-20.7% 

Net Mrg

3.5% 

1.5% 

-201 bps 

6.1% 

4.5% 

-166 bps 

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