Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (03.02.2025)

*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)
Υποχώρηση κατά 0,09% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός Δείκτης του Χ.Α. κλείνοντας στις 1549,32 μονάδες (στο +0,34% ο ΓΔ & στο -0,27% οι τράπεζες στην εβδομάδα, στο +5,42% ο ΓΔ & στο +9,99% οι τράπεζες στο έτος/Ιανουάριο). Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαμορφώθηκε στα 130,4 εκ. ευρώ. Οι αγοραστές έσπευσαν να οδηγήσουν το ΓΔ σε ανοδική κατεύθυνση στο ξεκίνημα καταγράφοντας από νωρίς το ενδοσυνεδριακό υψηλό της ημέρας στις 1557 μονάδες. Ακολούθησαν αψιμαχίες με τους πωλητές και μεταβλητότητα συνέχεια, τελικά δε υψηλές ρευστοποιήσεις τραπεζικών μετοχών κυρίως στις δημοπρασίες με το ΓΔ να οδηγείται σε αρνητικό έδαφος. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαμορφώνονταν στο 3,347% με τους ευρωπαϊκούς δείκτες να κινούνται ανοδικά. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (-0,75%) κατέγραψε απώλειες με την Alpha (-1,44%) να υποαποδίδει. Απώλειες ακόμη κατέγραψε η Βιοχάλκο (-1,80%), η ΕΕΕ (-0,89%), ο Ελλάκτωρ (-0,88%), η ΜΟΗ (-1,02%), ο ΟΤΕ (-1,88%), η Cenergy (-0,94%), ο Σαράντης (-0,75%) και η ΕΛΧΑ (- 0,75%). Στον αντίποδα, κέρδη κατέγραψε ο Τιτάν (-4,10%), η ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ (+1,19%), η ΕΥΔΑΠ (+3,04%) και το Jumbo (+1,87%). Απολογιστικά, 54 μετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 48 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Την Τρίτη ξεκινάει η διαπραγμάτευση των μετοχών της Aktor Holdings σε συνέχεια της ύψους 200 εκ. ευρώ ΑΜΚ. Στις ΗΠΑ, οι Alphabet και Amazon ανακοινώνουν τα μεγέθη τους για το 4ο τρίμηνο, ενώ την Παρασκευή ανακοινώνονται τα στοιχεία για την αγορά εργασίας του Δεκεμβρίου. Οι δασμοί Τραμπ σε Καναδά, Μεξικό (25%) και Κίνα (10%), πυροδοτούν αντιδράσεις με ανοικτά τα σενάρια σε σχέση με τη συμπεριφορά των αγορών.

Αναβάθμιση τραπεζών από S&P, investment grade για ΕΤΕ, Eurobank. Στο ΒΒΒανέβασε το rating για την Εθνική Τράπεζα και τη Eurobank ο οίκος, αναβάθμιση και για Πειραιώς σε BB+ που φέρεται να είναι στην τελική ευθεία για την εξαγορά της Εθνικής Ασφαλιστικής.

HSBC: νέες τιμές-στόχοι για τις μετοχές των ελληνικών συστημικών τραπεζών, Alpha Bank €3,05. Eurobank €3,50, Εθνική €9,9 & Πειραιώς €7,25 Αυξημένος κατά 2% ο δείκτης κύκλου εργασιών στο λιανικό εμπόριο τον Νοέμβριο του 2024.

ΕΚΤ, 2ο τρίμηνο του 2024: Ο συνολικός καθαρός πλούτος των νοικοκυριών (που περιλαμβάνει καταθέσεις, μετοχές, ομόλογα και ακίνητα, μείον το ιδιωτικό χρέος) στην Ελλάδα έφθασε στο δεύτερο τρίμηνο του 2024 στα 963 δισ. ευρώ. Το ποσό αυτό είναι αυξημένο κατά 28,5% σε σχέση με το 2022 και 40,1% σε σχέση με το 2020.
Αναπτυξιακός νόμος: Προτεραιότητα σε βιομηχανία και μεγάλα projects. Απλοποιούνται και επιταχύνονται οι διαδικασίες έγκρισης των επενδυτικών σχεδίων, σύμφωνα με το υπουργείο. Δημιουργείται για τις μεγάλες επενδύσεις άνω των 15 εκ. ευρώ ταμείο εγγυοδοσίας. ΔΣ

ΟΛΘ: Έως €44,08 η αξία της μετοχής, χαμηλή η πρόταση των Ντρέιφους. Η δημόσια πρόταση δεν εμπίπτει στο εύρος αξίας που προσδιόρισε ο ανεξάρτητος χρηματοοικονομικός σύμβουλος (ΒΕΤΑ ΑΧΕΠΕΥ), ήτοι στα 38,88 έως 44,08 ευρώ ανά μετοχή, αναφέρει το Δ.Σ.

Quest: Απέκτησε το 70% της Μπενρουμπή έναντι €26 εκατ. μετά τη λήψη των εγκριτικών αποφάσεων των αρμόδιων εποπτικών Αρχών ανταγωνισμού. H συμφωνία προβλέπει τη δυνατότητα απόκτησης από την Quest Συμμετοχών Α.Ε. του υπολειπόμενου 30% το 2027.

*Optima bank Research (https://www.optimabank.gr)

ATHEX headed marginally south in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.09% at 1,549.32 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.27%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.09%, Banks Index: -0.75%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 127.4m, up from Thursday’s EUR 107.5m. On a weekly basis, the General Index rose by 0.34% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: +0.40%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.61%, Banks index: -0.27%). We expect the intensifying global trade war to weigh on ATHEX today.

Macro Headlines

Retail sales up in November (ELSTAT)

According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority, retail sales (excluding automotive fuel) increased by 4.0% y-o-y  in November 2024 (while also increased by 2.9% y-o-y in volume terms), while including automotive fuel, retail sales increased by 2.0% y-o-y. Per main store category, the turnover of the Food sector increased by 5.5% y-o-y, with sales volume up by (5.6% y-o-y), while Non-food sector (except automotive fuel) sales increased by 2.8% y-o-y with sales volume down by 0.2% y-o-y. Finally, the turnover of the Automotive fuel sector decreased by 7.7% y-o-y, with sales volume down by 2.7% y-o-y.

Sector Headlines

S&P Global upgraded the ratings of Greek banks

S & P Global upgraded on Friday the ratings of Greek banks. In specific, it upgraded the long-term ratings of National Bank and Eurobank to BBB- (Investment grade) and changed their outlooks to positive from stable. S & P also upgraded Piraeus long-term rating to BB+ with a stable outlook and affirmed the long-term rating and stable outlook of Alpha. The news is positive.

Company Headlines

Piraeus Financial Holdings interested in Ethniki Insurance

Piraeus announced that it is currently evaluating various potential investments in the asset management and insurance sectors, among which Ethniki General Insurance. The shareholders of Ethniki Insurance is CVC Capital Parterns (90.01%) and National Bank of Greece (9.99%). Recall that NBG announced on 26 March 2021, the disposal of a 90.01% stake in Ethniki Insurance to CVC Capital Partners for a cash consideration of EUR 335.0m or 0.3x P/TBV21 (EUR 505.0m or 0.4x P/TBV21  for 100% – “earn-out” payment of up to EUR 120.0mn, which will be subject to meeting agreed upon performance targets for the bancassurance channel of NBG by 2026). The transaction included a 15-year Bancassurance partnership. Ethniki Insurance is one of the leading insurance companies in Greece and has also a presence in Cyprus (Ethniki Insurance Cyprus) and Romania (Garanta Asigurari), generated a net loss of EUR 29.3m in 2023, had a tangible equity of EUR 423.2m and assets of EUR 4.2bn.

SCI shares of AKTOR commence trading tomorrow

As of tomorrow, 43,478,478 new shares of Aktor Group which resulted from the EUR 200m SCI, will commence trading in ATHEX.

Thessaloniki Port Authority says that LEONIDSPORT’s public offer price is below the fair value of the company

Thessaloniki Port Authority announced that the reasoned opinion of the BoD of the Company regarding the Tender Offer by LEONIDSPORT B.V. is that the Offered Price of EUR 27,00/share does not fall within the Range of Value per Share determined by the Independent Financial Advisor, that is EUR 38,88-EUR 44,08/share and specifically it is 44,00% up to 63,27% below the Range of valuation per share derived from the Report of the Independent Financial Advisor.

Orilina sells the 12th residence in Ellinikon

Orilina properties announced the sale of the 12th Premium residence in the Elinikon Marina, for EUR 5.5m.

WW Investments reduced its stake to 14.2% in Euroconsultants

Euroconsultants announced that WW Investments reduced its stake to 14.226% of the total share capital after selling 3.004% of its stake in recent months.
  

*Euroxx Χρηματιστηριακή (https://www.euroxx.gr)

Losing momentum by the end of the trading session the ASE Index finished unchanged on Friday, on a EUR 92m turnover, with banks weighing on market performance and erasing gains led by blue chips. The banking index recorded a 0.7% drop, mainly driven by Piraeus Bank’s and Alpha Bank’s 1.5% and 1.4% losses, followed by Eurobank slipping 0.6%. On the market’s standout performers, Titan posted c.3.2% gains, Jumbo was up c.1.8%, GEK Terna and OPAP both finished 0.9% higher, while Metlen marked a 0.8% advance.  On red, OTE was down 1%, Cenergy lost Thursday’s momentum, closing 0.9% lower and PPC marked a modest 0.6% decline.

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS

MACRO I

According to ELSTAT, the volume index in retail trade rose 1.1% yoy in November 2024 vs the downward revised 1.5% drop in October 2024. On a YTD basis, retail sales as per volumes, are broadly unchanged (-0.4%).

MACRO II

Based on EU Commission’s data, the Economic Sentiment Index rose to 108.6 points in January 2025, from 106.4 in December 2024.

BANKS

S&P upgraded NBG and Eurobank to investment grade (BBB-) with a stable outlook. Piraeus Bank was also upgraded to BB+ with a stable outlook. Alpha Bank rating remained unchanged (BB+). 

PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>

Piraeus Bank announced that it is currently evaluating various potential investments in the asset management and insurance sectors, among which Ethniki General Insurance. Piraeus clarified that any potential transaction will be compatible with the announced distribution plan. Ethniki Insurance is the largest insurance group in Greece (active in life and non-life), formerly owned by NBG and currently by CVC (90% owned by CVC and 10% by NBG). In 2023, the company reported EUR 773m in gross written premiums and EUR 100m in pre-tax profits (excl. non-recurring items). The equity stood at EUR 438m. The purpose of targeting Ethniki Insurance is to exploit the fee generation potential and long standing relationships of Ethiniki Insurance with 1.5m customers.

AKTOR GROUP <INKAT GA, OW>

Aktor announced that the commencement of trading of the c.43.5m new shares will take place on February 4th.

*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.gr)

Market Comment // After trading in positive territory for almost the entire session, Greek stocks edged lower on Friday with the ASE benchmark retreating -0.09% to 1,549 points. Trade activity ticked higher, reaching €129m (vs. the 100-day MA of €150m). Attica Bank (-2.6%), OTE (-1.9%) and Viohalco (-1.8%) stood out among laggards, followed by Piraeus Bank, IDEAL Holdings, Alpha Bank, Austriacard, Motor Oil and Noval Properties (all on >1% losses). On the flipside, Titan (+4.10%), EYDAP (+3.0%) and Quest Holdings (+2.27%) outshone gainers, trailed by Jumbo, Thrace Plastics, Kri Kri, Dimand, Real Consulting, Profile, and GEK Terna (on >1% gains). Global futures are pointing strongly downward today, as investor sentiment is shaken by US tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, with markets assessing potential knock-on effects.

Piraeus Bank // Piraeus Bank has officially expressed interest in acquiring 90% of Ethniki Insurance from CVC Capital Partners and has reportedly secured approval from both the BoG and the SSM, with the agreement nearing completion. According to press reports, the €600mn price tag for the 90% stake implies a valuation of approximately 12x 2023 P/E. Under the Danish Compromise, the acquisition would result in an estimated €2.22bn (370% weight/ EEe; less if 250% is applied) increase in RWA, leading to a CET1 ratio decline from 14.7% to 13.8%. Ethniki Insurance’s 2023 pre-tax profit of €100.2mn (€78mn after tax) suggests a 12.0% ROI, closely aligned with Piraeus Bank’s sustainable RoE, making the deal EPS-accretive when factoring in synergies. This acquisition underscores Piraeus Bank’s strategic shift towards non-interest income, aligning with broader European financial sector trends and enhancing revenue diversification. The timeline of the AGM and the distribution out of 2024 profits remains intact for April-May 2025.

OTE-Telecoms // According to press reports, a deal for the sale of Nova is close to finalisation, with Dragan Solak, the Serbian co-owner of United Group, featuring as the likely buyer. If finalized, this deal could intensify competition for OTE, in our view, as Dragan Solak’s full control of Nova may signal a more aggressive expansion strategy in Greece.

Greek Banks // S&P Global Ratings upgraded the long- and short-term issuer credit ratings of Eurobank S.A. and National Bank of Greece S.A. to ‘BBB-/A-3’ from ‘BB+/B’, both with a stable outlook, while Piraeus Bank S.A. saw its long-term rating raised to ‘BB+’ from ‘BB’, with its ‘B’ short-term rating affirmed and a stable outlook. These upgrades reflect S&P’s view of improved financial stability, reduced industry risks, and a stronger macroeconomic environment for the Greek banking sector.

ADMIE Holding // According press, a Cypriot delegation will visit Athens on Thursday to continue discussions on Cyprus’s participation in the Great Sea Interconnector project. Meanwhile, geopolitical challenges surrounding the interconnection persist, with a recent incident involving a Turkish corvette monitoring survey operations near Crete, despite the issuance of a Greek NAVTEX.

Quest Holdings // Quest officially announced it completed the acquisition of 70% of Benrubi for a consideration of c€26m. As a reminder the agreement includes an option to acquire the remaining 30% during 2027.