Greek stocks rebounded on Thursday after a three-day plunge which pushed the composite index of the market 19.35 pct down and the bank index 63.81 pct lower. Bank shares took a deep breath after a three-day hammering while the reappearance of buyers may be a positive indication that the market is entering a balancing phase.
General Index rose 3.65 pct to end at 666.68 points, near the day’s highs of 668.64 points. The market’s capitalization grew 1.7 billion euros, after losing 11.34 billion euros in the previous three sessions. Turnover was a moderate 74.06 million euros.
Despite yesterday’s bounce high volatility pattern is likely to continue in today’s session. Short term funds and investors who captured the most part of the rebound may lock some profits especially if banking sector reaction continues strong at the opening phase of transactions.
FTSE -25 Stock returns since Re-opening of ASE
|BANK OF PIRAEUS||0,14||0,400||-64,3%|
¢ In the Spotlight
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and French President Francois Hollande agreed yesterday that the July 12 agreement must be implemented and that negotiations between Greece and its lenders can and should be completed soon after August 15, government sources said after a meeting of the two leaders in Egypt’s Ismailia, on the occasion of the inauguration of the extension to the Suez Canal on Thursday. Reportedly the meeting was conducted “in a very friendly climate” with Tsipras and Hollande also discussing issues relating to the new fund which will handle state assets.
They also discussed and agreed to do whatever necessary to allow the recovery of the Greek economy from the effects of the banking crisis. The Greek premier also met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, with whom he discussed issues of economic cooperation between ports (Suez and Piraeus). They also decided to initiate in September meetings between officials to support Greek business activity in the Suez region. To this effect, the two leaders agreed to organize a tripartite meeting with Cuprus, while they also discussed delimitation of maritime zones.
Earlier on Thursday, European Commission deputy spokeswoman Mina Andreeva expressed her satisfaction over the progress made in the negotiations between Greece and the institutions. Andreeva noted that a teleconference of the Finance ministry chiefs will take place on Friday to take stock of the course of the negotiations. Negotiations at a technical level between Greece and the representatives of the four institutions (EU, ECB, IMF and ESM) will continue until Saturday, according to finance ministry sources on Thursday. Technical staff will discuss the minimum guaranteed income on Friday, without excluding continuing on Saturday if necessary, while fiscal and macroeconomic data will be discussed on Friday and Saturday.
The Hellenic Statistical Authority announced the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May 2015. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May 2015 was 25.0% compared to 27.0% in May 2014 and 25.6% in April 2015. The number of employed amounted to 3,604,102 persons. The number of unemployed amounted to 1,200,981 while the number of inactive to 3,286,476. The number of employed increased by 81,832 persons compared with May 2014 (a 2.3% rate of increase) and by 65,387 persons compared with April 2015 (a 1.8% rate of increase). Unemployed decreased by 98,820 persons (a 7.6% rate of decrease) compared with May 2014 and by 15,278 persons compared with April 2015 (a 1.3% rate of decrease). Inactive persons –that is, persons that neither worked neither looked for a job– decreased by 32,879 persons (a 1.0% rate of decrease) compared with May 2014 and by 53,701 persons compared with April 2015 (a 1.6% rate of decrease).
Greek general government figures showed a primary surplus of 238 million euros in the first half of the year, the finance ministry said in a report released on Thursday. This figure is significantly lower compared with the same period in 2014, when a primary budget surplus totaled 1.8 billion euros. The primary surplus, in central government level, was 1.7 billion euros in the January-June period this year, form 568 million in 2014. The report also showed that the state’s overdue debt to the private sector rose to 5.3 billion euros at the end of June, from around 5.0 billion a month earlier. Pension funds showed a deficit of 1.0 billion euros this year, from a surplus of 416 million in 2014, while pension funds also saw their debts to suppliers rising to 2.3 billion euros.
Tax revenues in the first six months of the year lagged by 2.4 billion euros from the target, the social security funds have shown since March primary deficits that exceed 1 billion euros and the domestic ‘suspension of payments’ has exceeded 4 billion euros.
Hellenic Exchanges: The stock trades today ex-cash return EUR0.11 per share, implying a yield of 2.53% at current price levels.
GEK Terna: The 2,917,063 new shares will debut trading on August 7, following the conversion of 70 bonds from the existing Convertible and Exchangeable Bond Loan issued in December 2013. The conversion price is EUR 2.468 per share. York Capital will own 17% of GEK Terna’s shares.
HTO (Results H1 2015): HTO posted a satosfactory set of results better than our and market estimates. Resilient business in Greek fixed line operations (+0.5%) and lower financial costs (-21%) enhanced bottom line. We note that in Q2 the Group booked 85m of VRS.
¡ OTE Group revenues grew by 0.3% in Q2’15 vs. Q2’14, the best year-over-year quarterly performance since 2008. Greek operations were the main driver of this strong revenue performance. Greek fixed-line revenues were up by 0.6%, posting a third consecutive quarter of year-over-year increase. Greek mobile operations were resilient, as Cosmote service revenues were down by 4.6%, a slightly improved trend compared to the previous quarter (Q1’15: -4.9%), despite the country’s tough economic conditions.
¡ In Romania, revenues in mobile rose by 3.3%, a significant improvement compared to prior quarters (Q1’15: -12.7%, Q4’14: -8.4%), as a result of the anniversary of mobile termination rate cuts in April 2014. Romanian fixed-line operations revenues were up by 0.5% in Q2’15, helped by higher revenues from fixed-mobile convergent offers, as well as infrastructure and IT projects, while traditional voice and broadband revenues were down. As a result of competitive and regulatory pressures, revenues in Albania dropped by 14.8%. Finally, other revenues were up 10.5% to €110.3mn, chiefly reflecting revenues from the EU-funded project for the expansion of broadband access in rural areas in Greece.
¡ Total Operating Expenses, excluding depreciation, amortization, impairments and charges related to voluntary retirement programs and restructuring costs, amounted to €644.4mn in Q2’15, up 3.9% compared to Q2’14, as a result of higher construction costs related to the rural broadband expansion project together with the increase in interconnection costs stemming from higher traffic in Romania and at OTE Globe. Personnel expenses were down 3.9% at Group level. In Greek fixed-line operations, higher personnel costs reflect the transfer to OTE SA of OTE Plus and Voicenet employees; this was offset by a decrease in third party fees, as well as in maintenance and repair expenses. The Group should generate annual personnel cost savings of more than €30mn, starting in H2’15.
¡ Interest Expenses were down 21.7% in the quarter to €36.0mn, reflecting lower indebtedness.
The following table summarize results vs our estimates:
|TURNOVER (m euro)||2014 H1||2015 H1||y-o-y||2015 H1 E|
|EBITDA (m euro)||2014 H1||2015 H1||y-o-y||2015 H1 E|
|EBITDA Mrg||2014 H1||2015 H1||y-o-y||2015 H1 E|
|Group Net Income||128,1||36,8||-71,3%||33,2|
|Net Mrg||6,69%||1,94%||-475 bps||1,76%|
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