Cenergy: Η Hellenic Cables ανέλαβε έργο για την υποβρύχια διασύνδεση των νησιών του Ιονίου. Το έργο περιλαμβάνει την προμήθεια και εγκατάσταση περίπου 38 χλμ. υποβρυχίων και χερσαίων καλωδίων 150kV και προβλέπεται να ολοκληρωθεί το 2026.
Motor Oil: Στο 65-80% η παραγωγική δυνατότητα του διυλιστηρίου μετά τη φωτιά. Με εναλλακτικό σχήμα λειτουργίας η μία εκ των δύο μονάδων διύλισης της εταιρείας, μετά την πυρκαγιά της 17ης Σεπτεμβρίου. Εντός του γ’ τριμήνου του 2025 η ολοκλήρωση των εργασιών αποκατάστασης.
Eurobank: Ανεβάζει στο 68,81% το ποσοστό στην Ελληνική, έρχεται νέα Δημόσια Πρόταση. Απέκτησε πρόσθετο ποσοστό 12,848% στην Ελληνική Τράπεζα, έναντι περίπου €243 εκατ. Deal (προς €4,58/μετχ) και για το 8,58% της συνδεδεμένης εταιρείας holding Demetra.
ATHEX closed flat yesterday, after 5 consecutive sessions with gains, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped marginally by 0.005% at 1,408.50 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.11%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.23%, Banks Index: +0.08%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 98.1m, down from Wednesday’s EUR 149.6m. We expect the positive momentum to continue, with banks in focus today.
Macro Headlines
Trade balance deficit widens in September (ELSTAT)
ELSTAT announced that the trade balance in September 2024 amounted to EUR 3,057.7 in comparison with EUR 2,708.9m a year ago, recording a 12.9% y-o-y increase, due to the 2.1% drop in imports and the 4.6% drop in exports. Additionally, the trade balance deficit in the January-September 2024 period amounted to EUR 25,130.2m, up by 8.5% y-o-y, due to the 2.1% increase in imports and the 1.8% drop in exports.
Company Headlines
Optima bank || CP: EUR 12.70 | Restricted
3Q/9M24 results out on Monday 11 November
Optima bank is set to report 3Q/9M24 results on Monday 11 November, before the opening of ATHEX. Management will host a conference call on the same day at 18:00 Athens/16:00 London Time. Consensus forecasts net profit to reach EUR 38.1m (+5% q-o-q, +36% y-o-y) in 3Q24 and EUR 107.1m (+49% y-o-y) in 9M24.
MOTOR OIL updates on the impact of the fire in the refinery
MOTOR OIL provided yesterday an update on the impact of the fire in the refinery, setting one of the two crude distillation units (CDU) inoperative since 17 September. According to the company, the damaged unit is undergoing restoration works and the initial estimate is that the repair works are expected to be completed within Q3 2025. MOH expects that the production capacity of the Company’s Refinery during the period of the repair works will be at a range of 65-80% of the Refinery’s total nominal capacity (currently at 75%). It is noted that the Company is comprehensively insured for property damages as well as for the loss of operational profits due to the interruption of operations as per usual market practice. In more detail, MOH will be fully compensated for the restoration cost of the unit; with regards to the income loss, MOH will be compensated for the unutilized capacity at the same margins recorded by MOH during the restoration period (management said margins are good currently), after a 2-month period deductible from insurance compensation. Finally, the first installment of the insurance compensation will be collected by the end of 2024, and then at the pace of invoicing.
Alpha Services and Holdings || BUY | CP: EUR 1.4255 | TP: EUR 2.10
A strong quarter in line with consensus-above our call, Mgt upgraded FY guidance
Optima View:Alpha delivered a strong set of results that came in line with consensus and beat our estimates on higher non-core revenues and lower LLPs and VES cost. Following the strong set of results, we’ll upgrade our estimates. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 2.10/share.
2024 Guidance Upgrade:Management upgraded once more 2024 guidance and expects now normalized EPS in 2024 to increase further by 3% and to reach EUR 0.34 from 0.33 previously and normalized net profit at EUR 800.0m from EUR 776.5m previously. NPE ratio is targeted to fall below 4%, with another inorganic action in 4Q24. Moreover, net interest income is expected to be at least flat in 2025.
DTC acceleration: Management will add on the straight line amortization of EUR 160m, the annual payout multiplied by 29% in order to eliminate DTC in 2033. The acceleration has no impact on P&L, distributable income or Tangible Equity.
P & L: Reported net profit came in at EUR 166.7m (+51% q-o-q), well above Optima estimate of EUR 132.8m (higher non-core revenues and lower LLPs and VES cost) and 2% above consensus estimate of EUR 163.0m. Reported net profit reached EUR 489.2m (-2% y-o-y) in 9M24. Net interest income reached EUR 410.0m (-0.3% q-o-q), 2% above Optima estimate of EUR 400.4m and 2% above consensus estimate of EUR 403.0m. Pre-provision income came in at EUR 335.3m (+2% q-o-q), 6% above Optima estimate of EUR 315.3m and 7% above consensus estimate of EUR 314.0m. Loan loss provisions stood at EUR 53.1m (+3% q-o-q), 13% below Optima estimate of EUR 60.7m and 14% below consensus estimate of EUR 62.0m.
National Bank of Greece || BUY | CP: EUR 7.63 | TP: EUR 12.00
A strong quarter in line with estimates, Mgt increased distribution payout target
Optima View: National Bank of Greece reported another strong quarter and consequently management intends to increase the distribution payout target of 2024 earnings. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 12.00/share.
Higher Distribution target for 2024: Management intends to increase the distribution target up to 50% of 2024 earnings from 40% previously, whilst the final decision will be taken in early 2025. We estimate that NBG could distribute up to EUR 607m or EUR 0.66 per share, implying a gross yield of 8.7%, well above EU peers (7.1%). Management stated that the distribution will combine cash and share buyback.
2024 Guidance: Management reiterated Core profit after tax target of EUR ca1.3bn, higher than our estimate of EUR ca1.19bn. It expects NII to be higher in 2024 vs. 2023, in line with our estimate (+1% y-o-y) and reiterated that NIM will exceed 300bps and more likely to 310bps, higher than our estimate of 300ps. NII sensitivity: for 25bps at EUR 35m on a static balance sheet. Finally, management also sees upside risk on fee income. Net credit expansion stood at EUR 1.0bn in 9M24 and has already met FY target of EUR 1.5bn in November, with a strong pipeline of over EUR 2.0bn. Finally, management stated in the CC that is planning a new VES in the next month.
DTC acceleration: Management will add on the straight line amortization of EUR 200m, the annual payout multiplied by 29% in order to eliminate DTC in 2032-2033 instead of 2041. The acceleration has no impact on P&L, distributable income or Tangible Equity.
P & L: Net profit came in at EUR 315.0m (+1% q-o-q), in line with Optima estimate of EUR 312.0m and consensus estimate of EUR 311.7m. Net profit also reached EUR 985m (+24% y-o-y) in 9M2024. Net interest income reached EUR 589.0m (0% q-o-q), broadly in line with Optima estimate of EUR 580.8m and 2% above consensus estimate of EUR 577.9m. NIM squeezed by just 2bps q-o-q to 3.20%. Fee income stood at EUR 108.0m (+2% q-o-q), 8% above Optima and 2% above consensus estimates. Pre-provision income came in at EUR 497.0m (+2% q-o-q), 2% above Optima estimate of EUR 487.4m and 3% above consensus estimate of EUR 481.4m. Loan loss provisions and other impairments stood at EUR 52.0m (0% q-o-q), in line with Optima estimate of EUR 52.1m and 2% below consensus estimate of EUR 53.1m.
Balance sheet: Performing loans stood at EUR 31.4bn, flattish q-o-q and net loans at 34.1bn, while deposits dropped by EUR 77m q-o-q to EUR 57.0bn. Assets reached EUR 74.0bn.
Capital: Tangible Equity was shaped at EUR 7.7bn (EUR +11m q-o-q) and Core RoTE at 17.4%. FL CET1 widened to 18.7% from 18.3% in 2Q24.
Asset quality: Group NPEs stood at EUR 1.16bn (EUR -8.1m q-o-q), the NPE ratio was flattish at 3.3% and the cash coverage at 86.0% from 85.6% in 2Q.
Eurobank Holdings || BUY | CP: EUR 1.9880 | TP: EUR 2.80
3Q24 results beat estimates, Mgt upgraded FY guidance and increased distribution payout
Optima View: Eurobank delivered a robust set of 3Q24 results, that beat Optima and consensus estimates by 12%, on higher fee income, non-core revenues and lower OpEx. On top of that, management upgraded once more 2024 guidance as well as increased the distribution payout to shareholders to 50% of 2024 earnings vs. 40% previously, combining cash and share buyback. Last but not least, it announced the merger of Eurobank with Eurobank Holdings in 2025, with the absorption of Eurobank Holdings by Eurobank. Given the strong 3Q performance, we’ll upgrade our 2024 reported net profit estimate of EUR 1.33bn. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 2.80/share and expect the stock to head north today.
2024 Guidance Upgrade: Management expects now Core Operating Profit to surpass EUR 1.7bn from >1.6bn previously and in line with our estimate of EUR 1.72bn. RoaTBV is expected to exceed 17.5% from >16.5% previously and to stand at 15.0% in the medium term. NIM is also expected at 280bps in 2024. NII is expected to increase by 15% y-o-y, fees close to 15% y-o-y and CoR in the area of 70bps. NII sensitivity: for every 25bps rate cut, NII drops by EUR 42-45m per annum, including the current level of hedging.
Higher Distribution payout for 2024: Management also increased 2024 distribution payout target to 50% of earnings vs. 40% previously, combining cash and share buyback. Thus, we expect to distribute EUR 667m or EUR 0.18/share, implying a yield of 9.1%, well above EU peers (median at 7.1%). As far as the distribution from 2025 onwards is concerned, they might increase the payout to >50%, if there are no M&A opportunities.
DTC acceleration: Management will add on the straight line amortization of EUR 190m, the annual payout multiplied by 29% in order to eliminate DTC in 2032 instead of 2041. The acceleration has no impact on P&L, distributable income or Tangible Equity.
P & L KPIs: Adjusted net profit (before one-offs) came in at EUR 413.1m (+19% q-o-q) in 3Q24, 12% above Optima estimate of EUR 369.2m and consensus estimate of EUR 369.9m. Greece accounted for 57% of group’s adjusted net profit, Hellenic for 15%, Eurobank Cyprus for 14%, Postbank for 13% and Luxembourg for the remaining 2%. Net interest income was shaped at EUR 697.7m (+24% q-o-q), 1% above Optima estimate of EUR 690.1m and 2% above consensus estimate of EUR 687.2m. Group NIM widened by 2bps q-o-q to 2.81%. Fee income reached EUR 167.8m (+14% q-o-q), 4% above Optima and 3% above consensus estimates. Total revenues came in at EUR 891.4m (+26% q-o-q), beating our estimate by 4% and consensus estimate by 3%. Operating expenses surged by 30% q-o-q to EUR 297.1m, 3% lower than Optima and 2% lower than consensus estimates. Pre-provision profit came in at EUR 594.3m (+24% q-o-q), 7% above Optima estimate of EUR 554.7m and 5% above consensus estimate of EUR 565.0m. Loan loss provisions amounted to EUR 85.3m (+17% q-o-q), 7% above Optima estimate of EUR 79.8m and 4% above consensus estimate of EUR 82.0m. Adjusted net profit reached EUR 1.14bn (+25% y-o-y) in 9M24.
Balance sheet: Performing loans grew by EUR 2.1bn y-t-d and EUR 1.0bn q-o-q to EUR 50.4bn, already meeting the FY net credit expansion target and thus mgt revised it to EUR 3.5bn for 2024 and expect to rise by 7% y-o-y in 2025. Net loans increased by EUR 6.9bn q-o-q to EUR 49.1bn. Deposits increased also by EUR 16.0bn q-o-q to EUR 74.6bnm. Assets reached EUR 99.6bn.
Capital: Tangible Equity was shaped at EUR 8.33bn and TBVPS at EUR 2.27. RoaTBV widened to 19.9% in 3Q24 from 17.3% in 2Q24. Pro-forma FL CET1 widened to 17.8% from 16.2% in 2Q24. The excess capital might be used for M & A opportunities in banking and insurance in the three core markets of the group as well as in asset management in other markets.
MREL issues: 3Q24 MREL ratio at 29%, 100bps above Final target. They will issue a new Tier 2 note in early 2025.
Asset quality: Group NPEs stood at EUR 1.47bn, the NPE ratio squeezed to 2.92% from 3.08% in 2Q and the cash coverage narrowed to 89.9% from 93.2% in 2Q. NPE flow decelerated to EUR 50m compared to EUR 66m in 2Q.
Hellenic Bank: The objective is to acquire 100% of Hellenic. Eurobank will announce the new Business Plan with 2024 results. They have pencilled EUR 120m of synergies that will be deployed in three years, of which 1/3 (EUR 40m) in 2025.
Eurobank increases its stake in Hellenic to 68.81%
Eurobank Holdings announced that its subsidiary Eurobank S.A. has entered into share purchase agreements (“SPA”) with the Cyprus Union of Bank Employees (ETYK), the Cyprus Bank Employees Welfare Fund, the Cyprus Bank Employees Health Fund and the Financial Sector Provident Fund, pursuant to which, Eurobank has agreed to acquire 12,848% holding (53,037,786 shares) in Hellenic Bank for a consideration of ca EUR 243m or EUR 4.58/share, at 17.7% premium to yesterday’s closing price and implying a P/TBV24e of 1.03x. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and will be completed after their fulfillment and in any case not earlier than 8 February 2025, which is six months after the completion of the last mandatory tender offer. Until completion, the sellers shall have the full legal and beneficial ownership of the shares agreed to be sold, together with all rights attached thereto. Eurobank, currently holds 55.962% in Hellenic Bank, therefore after the completion of the transaction, its total holding in Hellenic Bank will amount to 68.81%. The news is positive and expected. In accordance with the provisions of the Takeover Bids Law of 2007 in Cyprus, Eurobank will proceed, following the completion of the transaction, to a tender offer for all the outstanding shares of Hellenic Bank that it will not already hold at the time. In addition, Eurobank announced that it has entered into a share purchase agreement with the Cyprus Bank Employees Welfare Fund, the Cyprus Bank Employees Health Fund and the Financial Sector Provident Fund pursuant to which Eurobank has agreed to acquire 8.58% holding (17,152,353 shares) in Demetra Holdings Plc, for a consideration of ca. EUR 32.4m, corresponding to €1.89 per share. Demetra is a holding company and, among other, it owns 21.3% in Hellenic Bank, being the second largest shareholder after Eurobank. The participation in Hellenic Bank represents approximately 77% of Demetra’s equity, based on the published accounts of 30.06.2024.
Titan Cement || BUY | CP EUR 33.00 | TP EUR 40.60
3Q/9M24e Results Review | Broadly in line with our call and consensus, US IPO expected in 1Q25e
Titan Cement International (TCI) reported marginally down by 0.2% y-o-y turnover at EUR 661.6m for 3Q24 (in line with our and consensus estimates), while flattish EBITDA margin at 23.5% resulted in unchanged y-o-y EBITDA at EUR 155.6m (also in line with our call and consensus). Further down the P&L, reported net income dropped to EUR 75.9m (down by 12.5% y-o-y, negatively impacted by EUR 8m one-off expenses towards the US IPO and a VRS in Greece), also in line with our call and consensus estimate. Operating Cash Flow in 9M24 shaped at EUR 186m and accounting for investing outflows at EUR 180.5m (fueled by US investments), dividend payment and share buyback (Titan holds 5.04% treasury shares), Group net debt closed at EUR 670m, up by EUR 10m y-t-d and by EUR 95m y-o-y, at a comfortable 1.1x Net Debt/EBITDA leverage ratio. The company says that the outlook for the rest of the year remains positive, driven by volume growth and resilient pricing in the US and Europe. Additionally, Titan said that the US listing is progressing according to schedule, with the IPO expected to take place in 1Q25. Finally, Titan cement launched this August a new share buyback program, again for a total value of up to EUR 20m, in replacement of a similar one which expired at the end of August 2024. The Company will hold a conference call today (16.00 Athens time, Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800 UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063 USA participants: +1 516 447 5632).
Conference call highlights-limited newsflow: a) US IPO progresses according to schedule, completion of the IPO in 1Q25, b) US infrastructure demand to pick-up in the next years, regardless of the US elections outcome, c) capex at EUR 240-250m in 2024-25e
Comment: Strong 9M24 for Titan, despite adversities (adverse weather in the USA, maintenance in the US plants, elevated electricity costs in Greece), on a tough comparables on a very strong 9M23. That said, and taking into account a) the positive outlook for the remainder of 2024, b) the IPO of the US operations in the New York stock market and c) the attractive valuation of the stock at current levels (24-27% discount compared to EU peers and >60% compared to US in P/E terms), we reiterate our Buy recommendation of the stock, with a Target Price at EUR 40.6/share.
Titan Cement 3Q/9M24 Group Key P&L Results
Greece: Greece recorded another robust quarter, with both domestic consumption and Group volumes growing double digits, however, export sales in our Western Europe terminals slowed down, reflecting the decline in the construction sector in our European export markets. Consequently, 3Q24 sales rose by 3.7% y-o-y to 105.5m, resulting however in EBITDA of EUR 14.9m from EUR 15.7m a year ago.
US: Performance of TITAN US in Q3 recorded year-over-year growth and profitability marked a new rise, although operations were significantly affected by hurricanes and bad weather that persisted throughout most of the quarter. In this context, US sales advanced by 2.0% y-o-y to EUR 376.7m, while EBITDA rose by 1.3% y-o-y to EUR 84.6m, despite the increased one-off costs related to the US IPO.
SEE Europe: Regional demand experienced a slight slowdown in the third quarter, following a very strong performance in the first half of 2024 and a record-high third quarter in 2023. That said, Group turnover was down by 6.7% y-o-y to EUR 111.4m in 3Q24, while the cost efficiency improvements, resulted in segmental EBITDA of EUR 45.4m, down by 40.4% YoY.
EMED: In the Eastern Mediterranean region, the structural adjustments needed for a return to macroeconomic normalcy are impacting real economic activity in both countries. Against this backdrop, turnover rose by 6.8% y-o-y to EUR 68.0m, while EBITDA in 3Q24 was up by 20.5% y-o-y to EUR 10.6m.
Below the EBITDA line: Below EBITDA: Contribution from participations (mainly Brazil JV) in 9M24 was positive at EUR 0.8m from EUR 0.6m in 9M23, depreciation expenses stood at EUR 116.9m (+8.4% y-o-y), financial expenses (including FX impact) ended lower at EUR 28.8m (down by EUR 4.6m y-o-y), while the effective tax rate shaped at 20%. Operating Cash Flow posted seasonal quarterly inflows of EUR 186m, capex shaped at EUR 180.5m, while Group net debt closed at EUR 670m, up by EUR 10m y-t-d, at a comfortable 1.1x Net Debt/EBITDA leverage ratio.
Jumbo 9M24 sales update
Jumbo released a solid sales update for October 2024, despite the continuing disruption in the supply chain, the tension in the Middle East and the increased cost of transporting products, according to which Group sales were up by +6.0% y-o-y, driven by parent net sales (up by 8% y-o-y), Bulgaria (+6%), and followed by Romania (+4%) and Cyprus (+2%). Additionally, in 10M24, the Group’s sales recorded an overall increase of c. +7% YoY, with Greek sales up by 7% YoY, Romania sales also up by +11%, Bulgarian sales gained +8%, while Cypriot sales were marginally up by +1%. As a reminder, Jumbo has already reopened the stores in Karditsa and Larissa and the two additional hyper stores in Cyprus and Bucharest, Romania started its operations during October and will create an easier comparable in 4Q24e (which accounts for c. 40% of yearly revenues). That said, in our view, there is an upside risk for Jumbo’s latest guidance, which called for sales growth of +4% in FY24 and that organic profitability close to 2023 levels. Our estimates is for c. 10% y-o-y, sales growth and we believe that with the increased store network this will be feasible.
CENERGY’s Hellenic Cables signs turnkey contract for submarine interconnection of the Ionian islands
Cenergy Holdings announces that its cable segment, was awarded a turnkey contract by IPTO for the design, supply, and installation of 38km of 150kV XLPE underground and submarine cables, which will enhance the electrical interconnections between Kefalonia-Zakynthos and Lefkada-Kefalonia, the Ionian islands in Greece. This contract will be manufactured at the state-of-the-art submarine cables plant of Hellenic Cables, in Corinth and will be completed in 2026. Note that press reports indicate that the value of the contract is EUR 100m.
The benchmark Index finished Thursday’s trading session unchanged, with little volatility during the day, while turnover amounted to EUR 97m. Banks finished also on the flatline, with Bank of Cyprus standing out +4%, while NBG rose 0.5%. Among market’s top performers on the day, PPA marked a 2.5% increase, Helleniq Energy and PPC were both up c1.1%, Motor Oil finished 0.8% higher, followed by GEK Terna +0.4%. On red, Titan was down 2.6%, Cenergy marked a 2.3% decrease and Lamda lost 1.9%. Focus today on the banks following the strong results and optimistic outlook.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
According to ELSTAT, the trade deficit excluding oil products and ships for the 9-month period of January-September 2024 increased 6.1% yoy as imports for the period rose 2.7% yoy vs a 0.4% yoy increase in exports. For September 2024, the trade deficit amounted to EUR 2.1bn, down 8.4% yoy.
ALPHA BANK <ALPHA GA, OW>
Alpha Bank reported net profits (from continued operations) of EUR 200.3m, ahead of our estimate (EUR 189m) and consensus (EUR 180m). The main driver is NII (marginally up qoq) and a lower COR (EUR 53m vs. EUR 63m in our forecasts). Management upgraded guidance for 2024E to an EPS of c.EUR 0.34 (from c.EUR 0.33), total revenues of c.EUR 2.2bn (from c.EUR 2.1bn), C/I ratio of <39% (from <40%) and ROTE (adjusted for excess capital) of >14% (from >13.5%). Management re-iterated guidance for an EPS of >EUR 0.35 in 2026E. The FL CET1 ratio improved further and pro-forma for remaining transactions stands at 17.1%. Alpha will also proceed with accelerating the DTC amortization in order to bring the stock to zero by 2033.
EUROBANK (EUROB GA, OW)
Eurobank reported operating profits of EUR 509m vs. ours of EUR 471m and consensus of EUR 465m. The beat is driven by a higher NII (EUR 698m vs. ours of EUR 676m). The results include the first time full consolidation of Hellenic Bank. Conference call highlights: 1/ increased ROTE guidance to 17.5% (from >16.5% previously and in our estimates) driven by a higher NII (mainly due to the deposit beta and mix and higher loan growth); 2/ core operating profits in 2024E to exceed EUR 1.7bn vs EUR 1.6bn previous guidance (and EUR 1.64bn in our estimates) due to the higher NIM (NII at 15% up yoy vs. 7% previously), moderate opex growth and COR of c.70bps; 3/ target ROTE on a normalized levels at 15% (vs. 14% in our estimates), including rate declines and synergies with Hellenic Bank (more details on 2025-27E targets to be provided with FY24 results); 4/ synergies with Hellenic Bank an envelope of EUR 120m in all lines over 3 years (2025-27 with 1/3rd in 2025); 5/ the management will consider increasing payout to 50% from 40% in 2025 post higher capital and new DTC amortization; 6/ net loan expansion of EUR 3.5bn this year and growth of 7% for next year.
NBG <ETE GA, OW>
NBG reported recurring net profits of EUR 355m vs. ours of EUR 318m (consensus at EUR 309m). Tne main driver remains NII which was up marginally on a qoq basis (EUR 589m vs. ours at EUR 579m). Key conference call highlights: 1/ upside to the 40% accrued dividend but the final payout ratio to be considered next year; 2/ for 2025E out of 2024E earnings the pay-out ratio could go up to 50%; 3/ on NIM current management guidance still holds as faster rate cuts rates are offset by the pick-up in loan growth; 4/ NII for this year will be higher than last year but 4Q it will be down mid-single digit; 5/ in 2025E NII should decline but recover from 2026 onwards in a faster rate cut scenario; 6/ NII sensitivity on rates remains unchanged (25bps around EUR 35m).
TITAN <TITC GA, OW>
Titan reported its 3Q24 results yesterday, recording a slightly weaker performance vs our estimates. Specifically, revenues in 3Q24 remained broadly flat yoy amounting to EUR 661.6m, down 0.2% yoy, compared to EUR 664 on our numbers. On a like-for like basis, excluding the one-off costs of EUR 8m in 3Q24, related to the US IPO and an early retirement program in Greece, Group EBITDA rose 5.3% yoy, reaching 163.7m vs EUR 155m on our numbers, supported by Titan America’s performance growing at a c.20% yoy pace (in the 9M period). Like-for-like net profit slipped 5.6% yoy, to a total EUR 81.9m, but ahead of our EUR 76m expectations. The company reiterated that significant steps regarding the listing in the US market have been completed, with the listing expected to take place during 1Q25.
JUMBO <BELA GA, OW>
Jumbo released its October sales update, reporting a 6% yoy increase in turnover, driven by solid performance in Greece, despite the ongoing supply chain disruptions due to the closure of the Suez Canal. For the 10-month period of January-October sales are up 7% yoy, while management reiterated its commitment to deliver the FY24 guidance for 4% yoy sales growth, with the opening of two new stores in Romania and Cyprus at the end of October expected to further boost activity. From a geographical perspective turnover in Greece rose 8% yoy in October or 7% yoy for the 10-month period, while Cyprus sales increased 2% yoy in October and 1% in the first 10 months of the year. Regarding performance in Bulgaria, revenues marked a 6% yoy increase in October, leading to an 8% yoy growth for the 10-month period. Sales in Romania came in at +4% yoy and 11% yoy for the 10-month period.
MOTOR OIL <MOH GA>
Motor Oil’s management held yesterday an analyst call to provide more information regarding the fire that broke out in Corinthos refining complex on September 17th. The cause of the fire has not yet been identified, as the area in which the fire broke out has only be inspected by drones for safety reasons. The company highlighted that it collaborates closely with the insurance operators and loss adjusters are currently assessing the situation. Motor Oil has filed for claims advocacy, while a request for the first tranche of insurance payment has already been placed, hopefully to be reimbursed by the end of year, as per management’s statement. As far as insurance is concerned, company is comprehensively insured on loss of income as well as the capital expenditure required to replace the crude distillation unit which is fully deductible and shall reimbursed on forwarded invoices to the insurance company. In terms of insurance claims assessment, the claim will exclude the first two months of business interruption and shall be determined based on the loss of income on market prices and more specifically on the delta derived by the current operational capacity versus the nominal one.
With regard to timing, dismantling and demolition of existing equipment should start in a couple of weeks with expectations of repair works to last until early 3Q25 when refinery will become again fully operational. The company has deployed a series of mitigating steps towards minimising loss of income, by disposing unnecessary crude imports and optimising future cargo of other feedstock to maximize existing operating capacity. During repair period, operational capacity should stand in the range of 65-80% of total nominal capacity with the number currently averaging c.70%. The accounting treatment on income statement has not yet been determined by the auditors but the insurance claim provision sounds like a plausible scenario, offsetting lower sales. Last but not least, management cautioned for a potential impact on working capital, and more specifically in inventories, derived by the differential of crude payables vs other feedstock.
CENERGY <CENER GA, OW>
Cenergy announced that its cable segment, Hellenic Cables, was awarded a contract by the Independent Power Transmission Operator regarding the design, supply, and installation of 150kV XLPE underground and submarine cables, for the upgrade of the existing electrical interconnections between the Ionian islands of Kefalonia-Zakynthos and Lefkada-Kefalonia in Greece.
METLEN <MYTIL GA, OW>
According to press reports, Metlen will proceed with five solar energy projects of a value up to EUR 2.2bn in Alberta, Canada, of a capacity of up to 2.1 TWh, as stated by the company’s regional CEO of North America, Luis Laguna, in the Toronto Economic Forum held in Ontario.
PPC GROUP <PPC GA, OW>
PPC announced that management will hold a conference call for its 3Q24 results as well as a presentation of its updated strategic plan for the period of 2025-2027 on November 14th at 14:00 GR time (13:00 CET). Dial ins: GR +30 210 94 60 800 or +30 213 009 6000, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & Intl +44 (0) 203 059 5872, US participants: +1 516 447 5632.
Market Comment // In a session with low volatility, especially after midday, the ASE index finished flat on Thursday (at 1,408.5 points) underperforming EU bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.6%). Trading activity settled lower, with turnover dropping just below the €100mn mark, >15% lower than the 100-day moving average of €120mn. Among blue chips, Bank of Cyprus surged 4.0%, followed by solid gains in PPA (+2.5%) and Fourlis (+1.9%), while HelleniQ Energy (+1.2%), PPC (+1.1%), Motor Oil (+0.8%), and Hellenic Exchanges (+0.8%) also finished in the green. On the other hand, Intralot plummeted 5.7%, with Ellaktor (-1.7%), Real Consulting (-2.9%), Motodynamics (-2.8%), Titan Cement (-2.7%), Cenergy (-2.3%), and Viohalco (-2.1%) also posting notable losses. EU futures indicate a positive opening today, as prospects for policy easing and Fed commentary inject some optimism to markets.
Alpha Bank // Alpha Bank posted a strong Q3 Adj.Net Income of €229mn, 25% higher than our estimates/consensus on higher than expected NII, non-core income and lower impairments. Group performing loans settled at €30.9bn, +4% q/q and +8% y/y, with €1.2bn net credit expansion for the quarter. Mgt now sees net credit expansion for FY24 at above €2bn. Mgt also raised the FY’24 guidance calling for NII at €2.2bn (from €2.1bn previously), CoR at 65bps (from 70bps), RoTE of >14% (from 13.5%), normalised EPS at €0.34 (from €0.33) and CET 1 Ratio >16%.
Eurobank // Eurobank reported a robust adjusted net profit of €413mn, significantly exceeding consensus estimates of €355mn thanks to stronger-than-expected NII (supported by solid loan growth of €1bn in Q3), along with higher fees, non-core income, income from associates and lower-than-anticipated impairments. Management raised its RoTBV guidance to 17.5%, with an expected normalized RoTE of 15% for 2025–2027, following the consolidation of Hellenic Bank, while also announcing an accelerated amortization schedule of DTC, aiming to eliminate the latter by 2033.
National Bank // National Bank reported another strong quarter in Q3, with Core PPI reaching €480mn, surpassing both our estimate of €465mn and consensus of €471mn. This performance was mainly driven by stronger-than-expected NII, which remained flat qoq, supported by an improved deposit mix and lower hedging costs. These factors offset the gradual impact of rate cuts on loans and ECB cash holdings, alongside a slight contraction in loan spreads and subdued loan growth. The underlying CoR was 52 bps, well below the FY’24 guidance of 60bps. Net profit from continuing operations settled at €355mn (Core Profit at €337mn) exceeding our estimate and consensus by 11%/9% resulting in a 9M Core RoTE of 17.5%, above the 16% FY target. NBG also announced an accelerated amortization of DTC, aiming for full elimination by 2032–33.
Titan Cement // Q3’24 results settled in line with our estimates, with Q3’24 revenues -0.3% yoy at €662mn and Q3’24 EBITDA flat at €155.5mn, impacted by €8.1mn in one-off costs related to the upcoming IPO and a VES scheme implemented in Greece. Adjusted for these one-off items, quarterly EBITDA rose by 5.2% yoy to €163.7mn, indicating another quarter of healthy organic growth. Net income came in at €76mn, -13% yoy given tough comps and one-offs.
Motor Oil // Following the fire incident at the Group’s refinery in mid-September management provided further clarity on the impact and mitigation measures. The fire affected one of the refinery’s two Crude Distillation Units, which is currently being restored and will return to full operation within Q3 2025. During the interim 9m period, refinery operations will run at c65-80% of nominal capacity with the Group operating through its contingency plan.
Jumbo // Jumbo provided a trading update for the 10 months to end October yesterday, reporting October sales up 6% bringing the 10m growth to +7%. Mgt reiterated guidance for 4% growth in the full year, a target which it now describes as “feasible”.
Alpha Trust Andromeda // Q3’24 results: Gross income stood at €1.06m, reversing last year’s losses (Q3’23 -€1.2m), and net profit shaped at €0.92m (vs net losses of €1.33m a year ago). Group NAV increased to €30.7m, or €8.46/share at the end of Q3’24, with the 9-mth performance at 7.14%.
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