ικανότητας από τη Scope Ratings. Η Scope αξιολογεί την Ελλάδα στο BBB- με θετικές
προοπτικές. Η διάσπαση των 1440 μονάδων ανοίγει πλέον το δρόμο για τον ΓΔ
προς τον επόμενο στόχο τις 1460 μονάδες.
Ο ελληνικός τραπεζικός τομέας θα συνεχίσει να επωφελείται από τις αυξημένες επιχειρηματικές ευκαιρίες ως αποτέλεσμα της ανθεκτικής οικονομικής ανάπτυξης, των αυξήσεων των πραγματικών μισθών, της διαρκούς δημιουργίας θέσεων εργασίας και των σταθερών επενδύσεων. Αυτό επισημαίνει ο οίκος αξιολόγησης Fitch στο Western European Banks Outlook του 2025. Ο οίκος αναμένει τα λειτουργικά κέρδη για τις ελληνικές τράπεζες να μετριαστούν το 2025 λόγω των χαμηλότερων επιτοκίων, αλλά θα παραμείνουν εύρωστα στο 3,5% περίπου των RWA. Οι τράπεζες μπορούν να χρησιμοποιήσουν μέρος του υπερβάλλοντος κεφαλαίου για επιλεκτικές εξαγορές ή επιπλέον κατανομές κεφαλαίου προτρέπει τις ελληνικές τράπεζες στην έκθεσή του ο οίκος.
Η επιβατική κίνηση του Αεροδρομίου της Αθήνας τον Νοέμβριο ανήλθε σε 2,15 εκ επιβάτες με αύξηση 13,3% σε σχέση με τα περσινά επίπεδα. Στο 11μηνο η επιβατική κίνηση ανήλθε σε 29,7 εκ επιβάτες με αύξηση 13%.
Η UBS αναφέρει ότι οι τοποθετήσεις των επενδυτών στις ελληνικές τράπεζες μειώθηκαν κατά την διάρκεια του έτους αξιολογώντας την βαθμολογία συνωστισμού «crowded» τους ( συνολική έκθεση επενδυτών). Η αιτία αυτής της τάσης είναι οι φόβοι για την επίπτωση της μείωσης των επιτοκίων στα επιτοκιακά έσοδα και η πεποίθηση ότι τα επιτόκια μπορεί να μειωθούν παραπάνω από το αναμενόμενο. Διατηρεί αξιολόγηση buy για όλες τις τράπεζες αναφέροντας ότι η βαθμολογία συνωστισμού τους έχει αυξηθεί πρόσφατα.
H Eurobank άντλησε 600εκ ευρώ μέσω senior ομολόγου. Οι προσφορές που υποβλήθηκαν
για τον τίτλο της Eurobank διάρκειας 5,25 ετών με δικαίωμα ανάκλησης στα 4,25 έτη
ξεπέρασαν τα 3,3 δισ. ευρώ. Κατόπιν αυτού το κουπόνι της έκδοσης υποχώρησε στο
επίπεδο του mid swap +125 μονάδες βάσης (δηλαδή περί του 3,3%)
ATHEX headed north yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 1.32% at 1,455.81 units (FTSE Large Cap: +1.56%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.07%, Banks Index: +2.30%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 175.0m, up from Wednesday’s EUR 143.9m. We expect the market to try to move higher, ahead of the National 3Q24 GDP data and the Scope Rating review today.
Macro Headlines
Scope Ratings Sovereign Debt Review out today amc
Scope Ratings is set to release the Sovereign debt review on Greece today after the market close. As a reminder, last July, the ratings agency affirmed the BBB- rating on Greece and raised outlook to positive.
Sector Headlines
Greek PM preannounces government initiative in the banking sector
During his speech yesterday in the Greek Parliament, the Prime Minister said that the Government will soon take certain initiatives in the banking sector, aiming to lower the banking fee costs, to rationalize the bottoming deposit interest rates, to step up the disbursement of mortgage loans and also to accelerate the disposal of the housing stock held by the banks.
Company Headlines
NBG CEO comments (press)
According press the CEO of National Bank of Greece stated that the expected 75bps rate cut by the ECB in 2025e will result in a slowdown of the NII by 8%-9%, adding that it will be largely offset by the credit expansion. Additionally, Mr. Mylonas didn’t rule out potential acquisitions in the neighboring markets, adding that the Bank could possibly be interested in National Insurance, if it would be tendered.
Eurobank issues a new EUR 600m bond (Bloomberg)
According to Bloomberg, Eurobank issued a new EUR 600m 5-year Preferred Bond at MS+125, with total offers exceeding EUR 3.3bn.
Athens Airport releases exceptionally strong passenger traffic for November
Athens International Airport (AIA) released its passenger traffic data for November 2024, according to which total passenger traffic up by 13.3% y-o-y, driven by international traffic (up by 15.7% YoY), while domestic traffic was also up +8.0% y-o-y. For the 11M24 total passenger traffic was up by +13.0% y-o-y, reaching 29.7m passengers with international passengers up by 15.5% (+2.8m passengers) y-o-y and domestic passengers up by 7.4% y-o-y.
HELLENiQ ENERGY completes the acquisition of a 110MW PV portfolio
HELLENiQ ENERGY announced the completion of the acquisition of a portfolio of 6 PV parks in Kozani, Greece, with a total capacity of 110 MW from LIGHTSOURCE RENEWABLE ENERGY. These parks are now commercially operational and benefit from long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with a major international group. The news is expected.
GEK TERNA/AVAX/AKTOR Concessions: Acquisition of additional stakes in Olympia Odos
VINCI Concessions, GEKTERNA, AVAX and AKTOR Concessions announced that they have exercised its right to jointly acquire the 17% stake held by Hochtief in the concession company (Olympia Odos) and the operating company (Olympia Odos Operation) of the Athens-Pyrgos highway. Following the acquisition, VINCI Concessions’ stake in the highway stands at 36.03% (formerly 29.9%), GEK TERNA holds 20.48% (from 17% before the transaction), AVAX’ stake stands at 23.01% (formerly 19.1%) and AKTOR Concessions holds 20.48% (formerly 17%). AKTOR concessions said that the consideration for its 3.48% acquired stake stood at EUR 20.48m, which implies EUR 23.15m consideration for AVAX’ additional stake of 3.9% in the highway.
Attica Bank CEO comments (press)
During a special opening ceremony in ATHEX yesterday, the CEO of Attica Bank Mrs. Vretou said that the major shareholders of the Bank will proceed with a new private placement in the next 18 months, as two Funds are interested in entering the share capital of the Bank, aiming to increase the free float from c.10% currently.
The benchmark index marked a steady upward trend throughout the trading session yesterday, gaining1.3%, with turnover amounting to EUR 175m. On another outperforming day for banks, the banking index rose 2.3%, led by Attica Bank +9.4% as well as NBG and Alpha both up 3.7%. Metlen rebounded demonstrating strong momentum with 3.2% gains, Aegean increased 2.8%, followed by OPAP at +2% on top of Wednesday’s 1.1% gains. PPA continued to underperform, losing 0.8%, Helleniq Energy slipped 0.7%, while GEK Terna and Titan finished flattish on the day. Today focus on Scope Ratings review for Greece.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
According to ELSTAT, the unemployment rate stood at 9.0% in 3Q24, compared to 9.8% in 2Q24 and 10.8% in 3Q23.
BANKS
The approval for the extension of the Hercules III scheme by EUR 1bn, is expected to take place during December.
EUROBANK <EUROB GA, OW>
Reportedly, Eurobank tapped the markets yesterday with a 5-year MREL eligible senior bond, targeting to raise c.EUR 600m at a spread of 155bps above mid swap.
GEK TERNA <GEKTERNA GA, OW>
GEK Terna announced the completion of the acquisition of a 3.48% stake in Olympia Motorway, increasing its total stake to 20.48%.
ATHENS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT <AIA GA, OW>
Passenger traffic in November increased by 13.3% yoy (+15.7% yoy international and +8.0% yoy domestic). In the 11M24 period passenger traffic grew by 13.0% yoy (15.5% yoy international and 7.4% yoy domestic).
HELLENIQ ENERGY <ELPE GA, OW>
Helleniq Energy announced that its subsidiary, Helleniq Renewables completed the acquisition of six PV parks in Kozani, Greece, with a total capacity of 110 MW. Following the acquisition Helleniq Renewables total capacity reaches 500 MW.
AVAX <AVAX GA>
AVAX announced the increase of its stake in Olympia Motorway to 23%, from 19.1% previously.
ELLAKTOR <ELLAKTOR GA>
Ellaktor announced that Aktor Concessions increased its stake in Olympia Motorway to 20.48%.
Market comment // The Greek market recorded gains for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, with the main index advancing 1.32% settling at 1.455.81 points. Trading activity surged to €175mn, well above the 100-day avg of €138mn. Attica Bank led the rally soaring 9.43%, followed by NBG (+3.75%), Alpha bank (+3.69%) and Metlen (+3.22%). Moreover, Aegean (+2.83%), OPAP (+2.07%), PPC (+1.99%), AIA (+1.99%), Kri-Kri (+1.66%) and Quest (+1.60%) also recorded on strong gains. On the contrary, Real Consulting shed 2.04%, with Thrace Plastics (-1.27%), HeleniQ Energy (-0.71%) and Motodynamics (-0.56%) being among the few names that finished in the red. Today, EU futures point to a negative opening, with investor sentiment remaining cautious ahead of the US jobs data, which will subsequently shape the outlook for rate cuts, while concerns over political developments in France persist.
Economy // Scope Ratings is scheduled to provide its rating review for Greece today. As a reminder the agency currently has a BBB- rating with positive outlook for the country.
Banks // Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has expressed dissatisfaction with domestic banks over high transaction fees, low deposit interest rates, and the slow pace of housing loan approvals. He emphasized that current deposit rates in Greece average 1.86%, significantly lower than the eurozone average of 2.97%. Mitsotakis announced plans for government interventions to address these issues, aiming to enhance financial services for consumers.
GEK Terna // The Group announced that it has exercised its joint acquisition right, alongside the other co-owners, to purchase Hochtief’s 17% stake in the Olympia Odos motorway concession. As a result, GEK Terna’s ownership in the motorway has increased from 17% to 20.48%.
HelleniQ Energy // The Group has announced the successful completion of the acquisition of 6 PV parks in Northern Greece from Lightsource Renewable Energy Greece. The portfolio has a total installed capacity of 110 MW and is currently operational under a PPA with a major international group. The financial terms of the transaction have not been disclosed.
NBG // National Bank of Greece, in collaboration with Qualco, is launching Uniko, a new real estate sales platform expected to go live in Q1’25. Through Uniko, prospective buyers will be able to search for properties and secure financing through the National Bank. The platform will feature c4,000 properties owned by the bank, of which 1,850 are ready for sale, primarily acquired through auctions. This initiative is structured as a joint venture, with Qualco holding a 51% stake and the National Bank holding 49%. The total investment is estimated at c€11.5mn, with the National Bank contributing €5.6mn.
AIA // Athens International Airport 11-month traffic stats showed sustained 2-digit growth with overall traffic +13% in the period, and November running +13.3% (sequentially better vs +10.1% in October). International passengers were up 15.5% in the 11-mths(+15.7% in November), with domestic pax +7.4% yoy (+8% in November).
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
