ATHEX headed north yesterday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.53% at 1,436.79 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.63%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.43%, Banks Index: +1.62%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 143.9m, up from Tuesday’s EUR 136.6m. We expect the market to consolidate at current levels today.
Macro Headlines
OECD updates its growth estimates for Greece
In its latest economic outlook, OECD upgraded its GDP growth for Greece to 2.3% for 2024e (2.0% previously), and slightly downgraded to 2.2% for 2025e (from 2.5% previously) and to 2.5% for 2026e. With regards to inflation, the organization expects it to shape at 3.0% in 2024e and 2.7% in 2025e (previous estimates 2.9% and 2.7% respectively) and at 2.1% in 2026e. Finally, OECD expects the state budget to generate primary surpluses of 2.4% in 2025e and 2026e, with the General government debt/GDP ratio dropping to 152.2% and 148.1% in 2025e-26e respectively (from 163.9% in 2023).
Greek 12-month T-bill raises EUR 600m at 2.27%
The Greek State raised EUR 600m yesterday from the issuance of 52-week T-bills. In more detail, the total amount auctioned was EUR 500m, while total bids reached EUR 955m (1.91x coverage ratio vs. 1.83x in the previous auction) for an interest rate of 2.27% (vs. 2.82% in the previous auction).
Company Headlines
EDGNEX Data Centers by DAMAC and PPC Group announce new data center in Attica, Greece
EDGNEX Data Centers by DAMAC and PPC Group have announced the launch of Data In Scale (DIS), a joint venture (DAMAC 55% – PPC 45%) focused on developing a state-of-the-art data center in Spata, Greece. The first phase will involve a EUR 150m investment to develop 12.5MW of capacity, with plans to scale up to 25MW in subsequent phases. The project is currently in the design and licencing stages, with construction set to begin in 1Q25 and completion of the first phase expected within two years. Additionally, according to Euro2day.gr, PPC is in talks with a major technology company for the development of a huge data center in the lignite mines in Western Macedonia.
OPAP Eurojackpot license extended for online
According to press report (newmoney), the licence granted to OPAP for the Eurojackpot for land-based operators has been extended to cover the online version of the game. According to the regulation included in the Finance Ministry’s bill, the extension will be made under exactly the same terms, conditions and procedure as the licence for the terrestrial operation, while the percentage of revenue collected by the state remains unchanged. The launch of the game and online is not expected to take place immediately by OPAP, which has the exclusive licence to operate the game until 2034.
Public offer to the minority shareholders of Terna Energy expected today (press)
According to Newmoney.gr, Masdar is expected to launch today the public offer to the minority shareholders of Terna Energy at EUR 20/share.
KRI-KRI close to proceed with a private placement (press)
According to Newmoney.gr, KRI-KRI is close to proceed with a private placement of 3%-5% of its shares to institutional investors.
The market ended with modest gains of 0.5%, with Wednesday’s trading session being busier in terms of turnover, reaching EUR 143m. Banks marked the third consecutive day of gains, rising 1.6%, with Piraeus leading the pack at + 3.8%, followed by Eurobank gaining 2.4% and Bank of Cyprus up c.1.4%. On non-financials, Cenergy stood out recording a 2.7% increase, Motor Oil rose 2.3%, OPAP was up 1.1%, whereas Jumbo and Titan ended flat on the day. On red, OTE was down 1.5%, Metlen and PPA both slipped 1.4%, while PPC marked 0.8% losses.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
POLITICS
Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis met yesterday with the leader of opposition of PASOK, Nikos Androulakis, three years after their last meeting. Topics of discussion included legislation, demographics, the establishment of a National Consumer Authority as well as postal vote, VAT, golden visa etc.
BANKS
According to BoG, the average interest rates on outstanding loans stood at 5.83% in October vs. 5.97% in September. On new disbursements, the average loan yield dropped to 5.41% vs. 5.61% in September. On the deposit side, the average cost on new balances stood at 53bps (1bp lower mom) with time deposit rates in the retail space marginally down (1.84% vs. 1.86% in September).
PPC GROUP <PPC GA, OW>
PPC announced the establishment of a joint venture with Damac, namely Data In Scale, in which PPC holds a 45% stake. Data In Scale will focus on the development of a data center in Spata, Greece with the construction process commencing in 1Q25. Investments in the first phase of the project amount to EUR 150m to reach up to 12.5MW capacity.
SARANTIS <SAR GA>
Sarantis announced that SKYLUX, a company closely associated with Kyriakos Sarantis, increased its stake to 7.1%, following the transfer of 2% stake from Kyriakos Sarantis to Skylux.
Market comment // In another positive session on Tuesday, Greek stocks gained 0.53% with the benchmark index closing at 1,436.79 points. Trading activity jumped to c€143m, above the 100d MA of €137m, with banks representing c54% of the total transaction value. Attica bank (+10.0%; admission and commencement of trading of new shares arising from the warrants) set the pace for gainers, followed by Piraeus Bank (+3.82%) and Kri-Kri (+3.79%), with Cenergy, Eurobank, Motor Oil and Premia also advancing >2%. On the negative side, HTO (-1.52%) and Metlen (-1.4%) led laggards, trailed by milder losses in PPC and CCH among large caps. Today, EU futures point to a negative opening in the light of the political developments in France.
Economy // Scope Ratings is to provide its rating review on Greece tomorrow. As a reminder the agency has a BBB- rating with positive outlook.
Greek Banks // The interest rate spread between new loans and deposits was down by 18bps m/m in October at 4.88%, with the spread on existing balances also narrowing somewhat (down by 12bps m/m) to 5.32%.
PPC // EDGNEX Data Centers by DAMAC and PPC announced yesterday the establishment of Data In Scale (DIS), a joint venture (DAMAC 55% – PPC 45%) for the development of a data center in Spata. The first phase of the project involves an investment of €150m for a 12.5MW infrastructure, with the potential to expand to 25MW. Construction is expected to begin in Q1’25 while the first phase is anticipated to be completed within two years.
Quest Holdings // In our updated note ‘Exquisite deal-questing lifts valuation’ we account for the new deals announced, namely the 20% stake sale in ACS and the pending acquisition of Benrubi, while also recalibrating our operating forecasts. With the seasonally strong Q4 ahead, the high single digit EBITDA growth embedded in our numbers seems well underpinned. We argue that the current valuation of <7x 2025e EV/EBITDA constitutes a compelling risk-reward proposition, given high-single digit EBIT growth in the next 3 years and balance sheet optionality. Our model yields a higher fair valuation range than previously due to the higher value attached to ACS in light of the recent deal, with our baseline value at €7.8 per share.
Premia Properties // Premia has strengthened its presence in the retail and entertainment sector through a stake (40% as per press reports) in a JV that has acquired 100% of the shares of the owner and operator of the Village Shopping & More center in Rentis. The €14.1m deal in collaboration with private investors (including the Antetokounmpo family) was sealed at a >10% yield. The property features a gross built area (GBA) of 49K sqm on a 36-acre plot, functioning as an entertainment hub anchored by Village Cinema as its primary tenant.
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