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ATHEX headed south yesterday for a third consecutive session, underperforming the European markets. In more detail, the General Index narrowed by 0.16% at 1,439.91 units, (FTSE Large Cap: -0.24%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.50%, Banks Index: -0.28%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 121.6m, down from Wednesday’s EUR 142.3m. MSCI rebalancing today, with Optima Bank in the spotlight.
Macro Headlines
Fitch Ratings releases its sovereign debt review on Greece today amc
Fitch Ratings is set to release the sovereign debt review on Greece today, after the market close. As a reminder, last November the rating agency upgraded Greece’s sovereign rating to ‘BBB-‘, with a Stable Outlook, expecting general government debt/GDP to remain on a sharp downward trend, thanks to solid nominal growth, budget over-execution and a favourable debt-servicing structure.
Greek unemployment unchanged at 10.8% in April
ELSTAT announced that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate came in at 10.8% in April 2024, same as the upwards revised 10.8% in March 2024 and lower than 11.5% in April 2023. The number of unemployed persons amounted to 521,295, lower by 3.9% y-o-y and up by 1.2% m-o-m.
PPI in industry slightly drops in April (ELSTAT)
According to ELSTAT, Producer Price Index in Industry (PPI) dropped by 1.0% y-o-y in April 2024, driven by the price decreases in Energy goods (-3.8% y-o-y), while higher producer prices were gauged in non-durable consumer goods (+5.6% y-o-y;). In the May 2023-April 2024 period, Producer Price Index in Industry (PPI) decreased by 7.4% in comparison with the corresponding index for the period from May 2022 to April 2023.
Market Headlines
Optima Bank and AlA will be included in MSCI Small Cap Index today
The rebalancing of MSCI Indexes is taking place today at the close. Optima Bank and Athens International Airport will be included in the Small Cap Index, whilst no changes were made on MSCI Greece Standard.
Company Headlines
OPAP Conference call highlights
During the CC management stated: a) Eurojackpot started strongly and promisingly, leading to a 42% increased GGR contribution of draw-based games, b) Lotto and Joker GGR increased by 14% compared to the pre-refresh period, c) OPAP enriched online sports betting with new elements and features and a new reward programme to further increase betting for Euro 2024 d) Online is the main pillar of OPAP’s growth e) increased payroll expenses is due to increased headcount, termination expenses from horseracing and wages inflation f) the initial plan of the buyback is the cancelation of shares (61% of the buyback has been completed) g) management expects positive impact from Euro cup.
Cenergy Holdings 1Q24 Results Conference call
During yesterday’s conference call, the management of Cenergy said that a) expects another strong year for the Company, with signed Backlog reaching new highs, b) the company has located a suitable land plot in which it will develop the new cables plant, an investment of EUR 300m, c) the management didn’t rule out the possibility of a partnership for the US plant, however final decisions for the capital structure of the US subsidiary haven’t been taken yet d) the Eleonas (former Petzetakis) plant is already operational for low voltage cables e) the company will increase the operational capacity for medium voltage cables in the Thiva plant and f) the completion of the upgrade of inter array cables capacity in the Korinthos plant is expected by year end, and will be operational by early 2025.
GEKTERNA 1Q24 results out
GEKTERNA reported 1Q24 group turnover of EUR 747.3m, down by 8.8% y-o-y (mainly driven by the normalization of the energy prices and consequently the revenues from the energy segment), EBITDA adjusted of EUR 148.3m, up by 19.9% y-o-y), with construction/concessions/RES/Energy segments contributing EUR 32.2m/38.2m/62.2m/19.5m respectively, while adjusted net profit stood at EUR 34.8m, up by 34.8% y-o-y. Group backlog remained high at EUR 5.0bn, down by EUR 300m y-t-d, and is due to increase further y-o-y, despite the accelerated execution pace, while net debt stood at the 2023 end at EUR 1,593m, down by EUR 12m y-t-d. Finally, as a reminder, GEKTERNA has proposed to the upcoming AGM on 25 June the distribution of a capital return of EUR 0.25/share (ex-date: 28 August, DY: 1.5%), up by 25% y-o-y.
Intralot 1Q24 results out today
The company is set to report 1Q24 results today, before the opening of ATHEX. Management will host a CC at 17:00 Athens/15:00 London Time. Reportedly (euro2day), the Chairman and CEO stated yesterday on the AGM that the company asserts new contracts in Australia and United States in 2024 as well as scrutinizes all options on the potential listing of Intralot Inc on New York Stock Exchange. He also stated that Intracom Holdings might increase further its 7.14% stake in the company. On top of that, the CEO of Intralot Inc cited that the company has serious chances to win 3-4 new contracts in 2024 that will generate EBITDA of EUR 12-15m per annum and per contract. Finally, deleveraging will carry on in 2024, as the company will repay installments $15.0m and EUR 5.0m respectively. We are positive on the stock.
Noval Property IPO public offer period ends today
The public offer period for the IPO of Noval Property ends today. As a reminder, Noval Property, a Viohalco Group subsidiary, proceeds with an IPO of EUR 43.5m IPO, aiming to fund an ambitious investment programme of EUR 340m in 2024-30e. The offering price range is set at EUR 2.60-2.82/share, implying a 34.7%-29.1% discount compared to NAV of EUR 3.98/share, offering an attractive entrance point to a balanced REIC/development company, also when taking into account that domestic listed peers currently trade at an average discount of 16.7% or 26.7% excluding Prodea. Finally, the commencement of all Noval Property shares is expected on 5th of June.
ELLAKTOR AGM today to approve the EUR 0.50/share capital return
ELLAKTOR will hold its AGM today to approve among others the distribution of a EUR 0.50/share capital return (Yield: 20%).
Profile AGM today
The AGM of shareholders is taking place today at 14:00 Athens/12:00 London Time. Shareholders will approve the distribution of a dividend as well as a share buyback program.
Fourlis AGM on 14 June
The company will hold its AGM on 21 June to approve among other things the amount of dividend distribution for FY23.
The ASE Index finished the day flattish, down -0.1%, on a EUR 121.5m turnover while banks marked a -c0.3% drop, led by Alpha Bank’s -2.4% losses. Among top gainers, Cenergy rose 2.2% on a solid quarter, followed by Jumbo +1.7%, GEKTERNA +1.6% and Titan +1.3%. On red, Ellaktor slipped -1.8%, Hellenic Exchanges marked a 1.1% drop, while Mytilineos and OPAP were down -0.6%. MSCI rebalancing is today with no changes in MSCI Greece Standard but the addition of Athens International Airport and Optima Bank on the MSCI Greece Small Cap.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO I
According to ELSTAT, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April stood at 10.8%, flat mom, yet lower than April’s 2023 11.5% figure.
MACRO II
Fitch’s Greek Sovereign rating review scheduled for today (current rating at BBB- with a Stable Outlook).
TITAN CEMENT <TITC GA, OW>
Titan Cement International remains one of our top picks in the Greek market in view of the large discount to peers, the hidden value from the US operations, the structural recovery in Greece and the underleveraged balance sheet. We increased our EPS forecasts by 10-15% in the 2024-26E period and our PT to EUR 45.0/share from EUR 36.0/share previously driven by higher growth and the peer group re-rating. The stock currently trades on 2024E EV/EBITDA of 5.3x vs. a 20-year median of c.8.0x, non-US peers of 6.3x and US peers at c.13x.
PIRAEUS PORT AUTHORITY <PPA GA>
The company released its 1Q24 trading update, showing a 2.5% yoy increase in revenue to a total of EUR 45m, mainly driven by the strong increases in the Cruise segment (+34% yoy), Car Terminal (+33%) and the Container Terminal Pier I (+9.9%), despite the weakness of transshipment cargoes throughput, due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In the meantime, EBITDA increased to EUR 23.6m, up 2.4% yoy, while Net Profit marked a 6.9% yoy advance, reaching EUR 13.8m. The company’s Net Cash position decreased by -4.3% qoq to EUR 102m.
INTRALOT <INLOT GA>
The company is due to release its 1Q24 results this morning, with a conference call scheduled later today at 17:00 GR time. Dials in: Greece: + 30 211 180 2000 or + 30 213 009 6000 UK: + 44 (0) 203 059 5872 or + 44 (0) 800 368 1063 US: + 1 516 447 5632.
AUSTRIACARD <ACAG GA>
Austriacard will publish 1Q24 results today after the market close. The company will host a conference call on Monday (June 3) at 16:00 Greek time.
*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.
Market Comment // Swinging between gains and losses, the Greek market finished marginally lower on Thursday (-0.16%), with the ASE index settling at 1,439.91 points. Trading activity was weaker vs Wednesday, with turnover dropping to €122mn, namely 15% below the 100-day moving average of €143mn. Among blue chips, CCH shed 2.8% (trading ex-div), followed by Alpha Bank (-2.4%), while Thrace Plastics (-1.9%), Ellaktor (-1.8%), Elvalhalcor (-1.2%), Hellenic Exchanges (-1.1%) and Profile (-1.0%) also ticked >1% lower. On the positive side, Viohalco surged 2.7%, followed by Cenergy (+2.2%), Kri Kri (+1.8%), Jumbo (+1.7%) and GEK Terna (+1.6%), while Optima (+1.4%), Titan Cement (+1.3%), Austriacard (+1.2%) and Aegean Airlines (+1.1%) also finished on gains. Today we see a cautious opening, as investors await US inflation data which will shape the outlook for the Fed’s near-term policy direction.
Economy // Fitch is to provide its update on Greece this evening. As a reminder, the agency rates Greece at BBB- with stable outlook. Following a similar move by S&P in April, a raise of the outlook to “positive” seems to be on the cards. Both agencies place Greece in investment grade territory.
Noval Property // Last day for the IPO process today (until 16:00 Athens time), with the final pricing set to be announced after market close. We remind that Noval Property aims to raise up to €43.5mn. The price range has been set at €2.60-€2.82 per share and implies a 2023 discount to NAV of 29%-34.5% pre-money and 26%-31% post-money. Trading of Noval Property shares on Athex is scheduled to commence on June 5th.
MSCI // Flow following latest index review today. As a reminder, there were no changes in the MSCI Greece Standard Index, which consists of 10 stocks, namely OTE, OPAP, Jumbo, PPC, Eurobank, Alpha Bank, NBG, Piraeus Bank, Mytilineos and Motor Oil. There were 2 additions in the MSCI Greece Small Cap Index, namely AIA and Optima Bank. Changes in effect as of the opening of Monday 3rd June.
Cenergy Holdings // Mgt gave a positive spin to this year’s outlook in the conference call following the Q1 results release, stating their expectations for continued strong execution in the coming quarters. Commenting on Q1, mgt explained that results were driven by improved pricing on ongoing projects in both divisions and strong demand for cables products thanks to secular tailwinds for power grid expansion/renewal in the EU. Regarding working capital, we believe stronger profitability allowed Cenergy to offset effects from the increase in input costs, keeping FCF generation mostly intact. On current investments, mgt stated that all ongoing expansion plans are on track for completion, with the total capex envelope at >€120m for 2024. Mgt also commented positively on the progression of its planned cable manufacturing facility in Maryland, USA, stating that the group is close to acquiring a land plot near Baltimore. As a reminder, Cenergy has already received an irrevocable c€58m tax credit from the IRS for this facility.
GEK Terna // Strong start to the year with Q1’24 adj. EBITDA at €148mn (+20% yoy) on account of robust performance from RES and concessions. Accounting for 6% higher financial expenses, €5mn on losses from derivatives and higher minorities, net profit settled 19% lower yoy. Net Debt was unchanged qoq at €1.6bn, implying a 2.6x Net Debt/EBITDA.
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