Το εντεκάµηνο Ιανουαρίου – Νοεµβρίου 2023, η Συνολική Οικοδοµική ∆ραστηριότητα εµφανίζει, στο σύνολο της Χώρας, αύξηση κατά 7,9% στον αριθµό των οικοδοµικών αδειών, αύξηση κατά 14,8% στην επιφάνεια και αύξηση κατά 20,2% στον όγκο, σε σχέση µε το αντίστοιχο εντεκάµηνο του έτους 2022.
Noval Property: Στα 571 εκατ. ευρώ η εύλογη αξία του χαρτοφυλακίου των ακινήτων. Η εύλογη αξία του χαρτοφυλακίου των ακινήτων παρουσιάζει αύξηση κατά 55 εκατ. ευρώ έναντι της εύλογης αξίας της 30ης Ιουνίου 2023.
Lavipharm: Oι ενοποιηµένες Πωλήσεις από συνεχιζόµενη δραστηριότητα προ Rebate & Clawback ανήλθαν σε Ευρώ 57,43 εκατ. το 2023 έναντι Ευρώ 45,14 εκατ. κατά τη χρήση 2022, +27,2%.Το προσαρµοσµένo EBITDA του Οµίλου ανήλθe στο ποσό των Ευρώ 9,13 εκατ. έναντι Ευρώ 5,74 εκατ. κατά τη χρήση του 2022, + 58,9%.Τα καθαρά κέρδη που αναλογούν στους µετόχους της εταιρείας ανήλθαν στο ποσό των Ευρώ 1,87 εκατ. έναντι Ευρώ 0,83 εκατ. για τη χρήση 2022, +125,2%. Ο καθαρός δανεισµός κατά την 31/12/2023 ανήλθε στο ποσό των Ευρώ 23,44 εκατ. από Ευρώ 18,82 εκατ. την 31/12/2022. To µεγαλύτερο µέρος είναι πλέον µακροπρόθεσµο λόγω της έκδοσης κοινού οµολογιακού δανείου που πραγµατοποιήθηκε τον ∆εκέµβριο του 2023.
Μεγάλη αύξηση οικονοµικών µεγεθών καταγράφει η Ideal Holdings στα pro forma αποτελέσµατα 2023. Αύξηση των Εσόδων κατά +120% στα € 384,3 εκατ. Αύξηση των Κερδών προ Φόρων Τόκων και Αποσβέσεων (EBITDA) κατά +101% στα € 53,9 εκατ. Αύξηση των Κερδών προ Φόρων κατά +76% στα € 38 εκατ. Αύξηση των Κερδών µετά από Φόρους κατά +73% στα € 26,7 εκατ. Αύξηση της Κερδοφορίας για όλες τις εταιρείες.
*PANTELAKIS SECURITIES* (https://www.pantelakis.gr)
* MSCI index rebalancing at the close today
* HelleniQ Energy (ELPE GA) 4Q23 results out today: adjusted EBITDA are seen diving 59% y-o-y due to very tough comps
* Economic sentiment weakens in February
* Building activity reaches 13-year highs in 2023
Macro Headlines
Greek ESI drops in February
Greece’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) dropped to 104.8 in February 2024 from 107.2 in January, remaining well above the EU average ESI (down to 95.4 in February from 95.8 in January).
Total building activity decreased in November
According to ELSTAT, total building activity (private-public), as this is measured by the number of building permits issued, decreased by 1.2% y-o-y in November 2023. In surface and volume terms, building activity increased by 8.9% and by 24.2% y-o-y respectively. In the December 2022- November 2023 period, Greek building activity grew by 8.6% y-o-y in terms of permits, while also increased by 16.5% y-o-y in terms of surface and by 22.7% y-o-y in terms of volume.
Market Headlines
ATHEX on watch list in April?-Press
Reportedly (mononews), one of the global providers of equity indices (MSCI, Dow Jones, FTSE, S&P) might include Athens Stock Exchange on a watch list in April in order to upgrade its status to a developed market in the next 20 months.
MSCI Greece Small Cap Rebalancing today
MSCI announced on 13 February that Intralot and Intrakat will be added to MSCI Greece Small Cap Index today as of the close.
Company Headlines
HELLENiQ ENERGY || BUY | Target Price EUR: 10.70 | CP: EUR 8.10
4Q/FY23e Results Preview
HELLENiQ ENERGY is scheduled to report today, after the close of the market, followed by a conference call at 18.00 local time (Conference call details — Greece: +30 213 009 6000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, US: + 1 516 447 5632). Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 258m (-45% YoY on tough comparables) and “adjusted” net profits of EUR 133m from EUR 261m in 4Q22. Turning to divisional performance, we expect HE, also benefited by the uninterrupted operation of the refineries, to have capitalized on the healthy refining margins through the quarter, driving the segmental EBITDA adj. at EUR 218m (vs. EUR 440m a year ago), while marketing contribution is expected weak at EUR 19m, driven by the mild weather conditions and the cap on margins in Greece. With regards to Petchems, we expect the weak environment during the quarter to weigh on segmental profitability, with the EBITDA contribution seen at EUR 12m, vs. EUR 26m last year. Finally, we estimate RES EBITDA of EUR 20m from the 356MW installed capacity to more than offset the EUR 10m loss towards the E&P activity. It is noted that our estimates stand at the upper end of the consensus estimates.
Ideal Holdings 2023 results in line with guidance
Ideal Holdings delivered a strong set of results that came in line with management’s guidance. Group revenues came in at EUR 384.3m (+120% y-o-y), in line with FY target of EUR 385,0m, EBITDA came in at EUR 53.9m (+101% y-o-y), in line with FY target of more than EUR 50.0m and EBT came in at EUR 38.0m (+76% y-o-y), broadly in line with the FY guidance for more than EUR 40.0m. Net profit came in at EUR 26.7m (+73% y-o-y). Finally, net debt reached EUR 73.3m and Net Debt/EBITDA at 1.4x. Management stated on the CC that expects financial performance to improve further in 2024 and will give the new guidance post 1Q as well as reiterated its intention to proceed to new acquisitions in the IT sector with a target IRR of more than 15%.
Intralot Chairman and CEO purchased shares
The company announced that the Chairman of the BoD and CEO acquired on 28 February, 400,000 common shares at an average price of EUR 1.1322 and a total value of EUR 452,894.71.
Noval Property’s portfolio value up on 31 December 2023
Noval Property announced that on 31st December 2023, the fair value of its portfolio, comprising sixty-one (61) investment properties and participations, amounted to EUR 571m up by EUR 55 m (11% increase) compared to the fair value of 30th June 2023.
Marginal losses for Athens yesterday (-0.30%) on very light volumes (ADTV at EUR 95m). Banks index ended the day 45bps lower, with notable underperformance by Eurobank, down 1.5%. Uninspiring session for most non financials, with both refiners down, HELLENiQ -1.7% and Motor Oil -1.3%. Correction also for GEK TERNA, down 1.5%. Terna Energy ended the day flat. Outperformance for CENERGY, up 3.8%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
Building activity for the 12M period up to November increased by 8.6% in terms of permits, 16.5% rise in surface and 22.7% in volume.
PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>
The BoD of the bank will propose to the AGM a dividend of EUR 79m out of the 2023 net profits (in line with guidance).
HELLENIQ ENERGY <ELPE GA, OW>
HELLENiQ ENERGY is due to report FY23 numbers today, after the close. We anticipate adj EBITDA of EUR 212m (HELLENiQ consensus average at EUR 228m) and net income of EUR 105m (Consensus at EUR 98m), on a deflated refining margin environment versus 4Q22 with margins still above mid-cycle levels and diesel cracks providing support. We expect BoD to propose final DPS of EUR 0.50/share. The management is scheduled to hold a conference call today, Thursday February 29th at 17:00 CET. Dial ins: UK + INTL: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, GR: +30 213 009 6000, US: +1 516 447 5632.
INTRALOT <INLOT GA>
Newly issued EUR 130m common bond loan started trading in ATHEX as of yesterday.
NOVAL PROPERTY
Noval Property announced that the fair value of the investment property and participations portfolio as of Dec 2023 stood at EUR 571m, an increase of EUR 55m (11% rise) compared to June 2023.
Market Comment // Greek stocks managed to pare intraday losses of -1.1% to finish -0.3% lower on Wednesday, in symphony with most European bourses. Trading activity stayed below €100m, near recently established levels. Among the gainers, Cenergy stood out rallying 3.9%, followed by Quest and Viohalco which both surged >2%. On the other hand, Profile shed 2.1%, while HelleniQ Energy, GEK Terna, Eurobank and MOH retreated >1%. Today the market is likely to be in consolidation mode as investors await US inflation data to recalibrate their short-term risk stance.
Piraeus Bank // According to Kathimerini, the HFSF is in active discussions with investors to determine the price range for the sale of its 27% stake in Piraeus Bank. A conclusive decision on this matter (and on the exact sale to be sold) is anticipated by Saturday, shortly before the bid book is set to open on Monday, March 4.
HelleniQ Energy // HelleniQ Energy is scheduled to release FY’2023 results today after market close. We anticipate FY’23 adj. EBITDA to reach €1.2bn (-24% yoy) on the back of persistently strong refining margins throughout the year, estimating the avg refining margin to settle at $16.7/bbl. We expect FY’23 net profit of €546mn (-39% yoy), while we pencil in a final DPS of €0.31/share (c4% yield), with risk lying on the upside.
Entersoft // Entersoft is due to release FY’23 results today pre-market opening; we anticipate revenue growth of 31% (€38.8m) and EBITDA of €12.5m (up +31% yoy) on flat EBITDA margin of c32%.
MSCI // Flow following latest index review to take place at today’s close. As a reminder, there were no changes in the MSCI Greece Standard Index, which consists of 10 stocks, namely OTE, OPAP, Jumbo, PPC, Eurobank, Alpha Bank, NBG, Piraeus Bank, Mytilineos and Motor Oil. On the other hand, there were 2 additions in the MSCI Greece Small Cap Index, namely Intralot and Intrakat.
IDEAL Holdings // IDEAL reported FY’23 pro-forma results with sizable growth thanks to the first-time inclusion of the Attica Department stores. FY’23 pro forma revenues shaped at €384m, up vs €174.7m a year ago, 2023 adj. EBITDAaL reached €53.9m, vs €26.8m a year ago, and net profit stood at €26.7m up from €15.5m in 2022. Results were below our forecasts by c2-3% at the top and adj. EBITDA lines, mainly as a result of the slower recovery in the Industrial segment, with the bottom line weighed further by elevated net financials. At the call following the results release yesterday, management communicated a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2024, highlighting positive growth trends expected across all core divisions.
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