Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (28.05.2024)

*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)
Άνοδο κατά 0,24% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός ∆είκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1481,23 µονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα 82,5 εκ. ευρώ. Η διάθεση των αγοραστών ήταν θετική και σύντοµα οδήγησε το Γ.∆. στο ενδοσυνεδριακό υψηλό των 1494 µονάδων λίγο πριν τις 12µµ µε οδηγό τις τράπεζες, τον ΟΤΕ και τη ΜΟΗ . Όµως σύντοµα η κινητοποίηση των πωλητών οδήγησε σταδιακά µέχρι το κλείσιµο στο ενδοσυνεδριακό χαµηλό των 1477 µονάδων για να διαµορφωθεί στις δηµοπρασίες µε µικρά κέρδη. Την ίδια ώρα οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαµορφώνονταν στο 3,585%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (+1,59%) κατέγραψε κέρδη µε την Εθνική (+2,34%) να υπεραποδίδει. Κέρδη ακόµη κατέγραψε ο ΟΤΕ (+2,98%), η Motor Oil (+1,57), ο Μυτιληναίος (+1,52%), η Lamda (+1,19%), η Τενέργα (+0,72%) και η ΕΥ∆ΑΠ (+1,34%). Στον αντίποδα, απώλειες κατέγραψε η ΕΕΕ (-2,22%), ο Τιτάν (-1,26%), τα ΕΛΠΕ (-0,93%), ο Ελλάκτωρ (-1,15%), το Jumbo (-0,88%), η Cenergy (-4,31%), η Infoquest (- 2,91%), η Autohellas (-1,63%), η ΕΛΧΑ (-0,81%) αλλά και ο ΟΛΠ (-1,04%) από τη µεσαία κεφαλαιοποίηση. Απολογιστικά, 46 µετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 55 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Η Motor Oil ανακοινώνει σήµερα τα µεγέθη της για το 1ο τρίµηνο. Προς µεγάλη ανακούφιση των αγοραστών ο Γ.∆. αντέδρασε ανοδικά, όµως η καθίζηση του τζίρου δεν επέτρεψε την ολοκλήρωση της κίνησης και την εκ νέου προσέγγιση των 1500 µονάδων. Ανοικτά όλα τα ενδεχόµενα για τη συνέχεια. Η ΕΛΣΤΑΤ ανακοινώνει τα στοιχεία για την οικοδοµική δραστηριότητα στο 1ο δίµηνο.
ΕΧΑΕ, 1Ο ΤΡΊΜΗΝΟ: Αύξηση κύκλου εργασιών κατά 15,7% σε σχέση µε το πρώτο τρίµηνο 2023 και διαµορφώθηκε στα €13,5 εκ. Αύξηση του EBITDA κατά 20,9% σε σχέση µε το πρώτο τρίµηνο 2023, διαµορφώθηκε στα €6,4 εκ. Αύξηση των ενοποιηµένων κερδών µετά από φόρους κατά 30,5% σε σχέση µε το πρώτο τρίµηνο 2023, διαµορφώθηκαν στα €4,4 εκ. Η Μέση Ηµερήσια Αξία Συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα €147,6 εκ. , +31,2%, η µέση Κεφαλαιοποίηση της αγοράς αυξήθηκε κατά 32,5% στα €95,3 δισ., η συµµετοχή των ξένων επενδυτών στην Κεφαλαιοποίηση του Χρηµατιστηρίου ενισχύθηκε περαιτέρω, και διαµορφώθηκε σε 65,6%, ο όγκος συναλλαγών στην Αγορά Παραγώγων µειώθηκε κατά 19,4% στα 42,7 χιλ. συµβόλαια ηµερησίως.
Έτοιµη η Πειραιώς για µέρισµα 78,8 εκατ. ευρώ, αναµένοντας την τυπική έγκριση των σχετικών αιτηµάτων τους από τον SSM.
Trade Estates: ∆ωρεάν διάθεση ως 3,1 εκατ. µετοχών σε στελέχη. Το ∆.Σ. εισηγείται 5ετές stock awarding plan, µέσω του οποίου µπορεί να διανεµηθούν µετοχές όσο το 2,58% του µετοχικού κεφαλαίου.
Μυτιληναίος: To placement που έγινε στις αρχές της εβδοµάδας και είχε ως αποτέλεσµα αύξηση του free float της µετοχής οδηγεί σε αλλαγές στη στάθµιση της µετοχής στους δείκτες FTSE. Γιάννης Καλαφατάς (Γεν ∆/ντης Μυτιληναίου): ο όµιλος θα επενδύσει πάνω από 3 δισ. ευρώ τα επόµενα τέσσερα χρόνια σε έργα Ανανεώσιµων Πηγών Ενέργειας στην Ιταλία. Tα γραφεία µας στο Μιλάνο τη ∆ευτέρα θα είναι ο κόµβος µας για την Κεντρική Ευρώπη.

Αυξηµένη 12,2% η επιβατική κίνηση στα ελληνικά αεροδρόµια το πρώτο τετράµηνο το σύνολο των επιβατών το χρονικό διάστηµα Ιανουαρίου – Απριλίου 2024 έφτασε τα 12.586.931, έναντι 11.223.043 επιβατών πέρυσι. Αυξηµένος 6,4% ο αριθµός των πτήσεων.

Στουρνάρας: Το έλλειµµα αποταµίευσης, ή πιο συγκεκριµένα η ανεπάρκεια των εγχώριων αποταµιεύσεων για τη χρηµατοδότηση επενδύσεων, οδηγεί στην προσφυγή σε εξωτερικό δανεισµό και αντανακλάται στα επίµονα υψηλά ελλείµµατα στο ισοζύγιο τρεχουσών συναλλαγών την τελευταία 20ετία. Αυτό υποδηλώνει ότι η χώρα ξοδεύει πολύ περισσότερα απ’ όσα παράγει, ή µε άλλα λόγια, ότι δεν υπάρχουν επαρκείς εγχώριες αποταµιεύσεις για τη χρηµατοδότηση επενδύσεων.

*Optima bank Research (https://www.optimabank.gr)

  ATHEX pared initial gains and closed slightly north yesterday, in line with the European markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.24% at 1,481.23 units, (FTSE Large Cap: +0.54%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.41%, Banks Index: +1.59%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 81.9m, down from Friday’s EUR 86.8m. We expect ATHEX to move in line with the European markets today.

Macro Headlines

Central government budget execution January-April 2024 (final data)

Facts: According to the final MoF data for the central government budget execution on a modified cash basis in January-April 2024, the central government budget recorded a EUR 250m deficit (upwards revised from EUR 279m preliminary data) vs. a targeted deficit of EUR 2,699m (based on the 2024 Budget introductory report) and a EUR 789m deficit in the same period in 2023. On a primary basis, the budget recorded a EUR 3,282m surplus in Jan-April 2024 (upwards revised from EUR 3,253 preliminary data) vs. a targeted surplus of EUR 631m and a EUR 2,443 surplus in the same period in 2023. 

Company Headlines

OTE signed MoU with West Network Invest about the disposal of TRM

The company announced that it signed a Memorandum of Understanding with West Network Invest S.R.L. about the disposal of its 100% subsidiary Telekom Romania Mobile. West Network Invest S.R.L is an investment vehicle, majority owned by Digi Romania S.A and minority owned by Clever Media group. Digi is a member of DIGI Communications group, a leading telecommunications company, with presence in Romania, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Belgium. The parties are in the process to file for approval with the Romanian competent authorities. The news is positive on OTE.

Hellenic Exchanges || CP: EUR 5.12 | Rating: Buy | TP: EUR 6.40

1Q24 results review | A strong quarter in line with expectations

Optima View | Hellenic Exchanges delivered a strong set of results that came in line with our estimate in terms of top and bottom line and slightly lower in terms of EBITDA due to higher than expected operating expenses. On top of that, the company generated strong FCF and increased its net cash position. Management will host a CC today at 16:00 Athens/14:00 London Time. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 6.40, implying a 25% upside potential.

P&L KPIs | Revenues came in at EUR 13.5m (+15.7% y-o-y), on spot with our estimate. Trading revenues rose by 5.0% y-o-y and post-trading revenues by 10.0% y-o-y, accounting for 62.0% of total revenues. Listing revenues also surged by 26.3% y-o-y, data services revenues by 14.6% y-o-y and IT and digital services by 42.4% y-o-y. On the cost side, OpEx reached EUR 6.6m (+11.7% y-o-y), 3% higher than our estimate of EUR 6.4m and hence EBITDA came in at EUR 6.4m (+20.9% y-o-y), slightly lower (-2.6%) than our estimate of EUR 6.5m. EBITDA margin widened to 47.2% from 45.1% a year earlier. Net profit reached EUR 4.4m (+30.5% y-o-y), in line with our estimate of EUR 4.3m. Net margin also widened to 32.2% in 1Q24 vs. 28.6% a year earlier.    

Cash Flow | FCF rose by 15.4% y-o-y to EUR 5.0m on higher OpCF (+12.1% y-o-y) and lower CapEx requirements (-21.1% y-o-y).

Net Cash position | Net cash increased by EUR 5.3m q-o-q to EUR 68.2m or EUR 1.13 per share.  

CENERGY Holdings || U/R | CP EUR 8.43 | TP U/R

1Q24e Preview: Strong Start, in a seasonal weak quarter on track to meet the EUR 240-250m EBITDA target

Cenergy Holdings is set to announce its 1Q24e Results on 29 May amc, with a conference call scheduled for the following day, 30 May at 15.00 local time (Tel nos: Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632). We expect a strong quarter, despite the usual weak seasonality in the start of the year, driven by the acceleration of backlog execution on healthy margins. In more detail, we see group sales up by 7.0% y-o-y at EUR 408m, driven by increased volumes in both segments (the Cables segment already operates at high utilization rates while the pipes segment is expected to have further stepped-up its operations), aided by the huge accumulated backlog (Group backlog EUR 3.15bn on 31/12/2023, up by EUR 1.15bn y-o-y). Turning to profitability, we see EBITDA adj. (i.e. excluding metal impact and one-offs) at EUR 59.1m, up by 34.4% y-o-y, while accounting for EUR 8m Depreciation, higher financial expenses of EUR 18.5m (driven by the recent interest rate hikes which more than offset the lower by EUR 60m y-o-y net debt as of 31/12/2023) and 22% effective tax rate, we expect Net profits to shape at EUR 25.5m, up by 65.3% y-o-y. Finally, it is reminded that CENERGY has already declared a EUR 0.08/share dividend (DY: 0.9%, ex-date: 25/06/2024).

Noval Property brief presentation; IPO public offer 29-31 May

Noval Property has already announced its intention to proceed with an IPO of EUR 43.5m IPO, aiming to fund an ambitious investment programme of EUR 340m in 2024-30e. The Public offer for the IPO will commence on 29 May and end on 31st, and the upper bound of the offering price is set at EUR 2.82/share. It is noted that the upper bound offering price of EUR 2.82/share implies a hefty discount of 29.1% compared to the NAV of EUR 3.98/share, offering an attractive entrance point to a balanced REIC/development company, also when taking into account that domestic listed peers currently trade at an average discount of 16.7% or 26.7% excluding Prodea. Finally, the commencement of all Noval Property shares is expected on 5th of June.

Noval Property Brief Overview

Noval Property is the 2nd largest Real Estate Investment Company (REIC) in terms of Gross Asset Value as of 31.12.2023 in Greece, active in the fields of real estate development and investment sector with a diversified portfolio of 61 properties in Greece and Bulgaria. The company was established in 10/2019 as a subsidiary of Viohalco Group, and as of 31/12/2023 manages a EUR 571m investment property (in GAV terms), with 98.1% occupancy rate, 7.2% gross rental yield and 9.6 years WAULT (based on maximum contractual expiration of leases and taking into account the tenants’ extension rights), which generates EUR 31.4m annualised gross rental income. The company is expected to raise additional funds through the IPO of its shares in ATHEX. Note that the REIC has an investment programme of EUR 340m in 2024-30e, 82% of which is expected to channelled towards the development of existing assets, whereas the remaining 18% for acquisitions.

OPAP || CP: EUR 15.02 | Rating: Buy | TP: EUR 19.30

1Q24e preview: Strong Top line but increased OpEx weighs on profitability

Strong 1Q24e performance | OPAP will release its 1Q24e results on Wednesday 29 May, after market close, while it will hold a cc the following day (16:00 Athens time). We expect a strong quarter in terms of top line with revenue growth across almost all commercial channels except for a slight decline in the Instant & Passives category (which we expect to continue underperforming), but high OpEx continues to trim profitability. 1Q24e was characterised by a) the rich sports calendar, b) the launch of Eurojackpot, c) the continued strong growth of Online casino with players increasing their engagement levels and d) the better performance of Lottery games in physical stores supported by the restructuring of lotto and Joker games.

1Q24e P&L forecasts | In this context, we forecast quarterly revenues (GGR) of EUR 550.6m (vs. EUR 527.4m in 1Q23 +4.4% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 185.3m (vs. EUR 196.3m in 1Q23 -5.6% y-o-y) and “comparable” net profits of EUR 109.3m vs. comp. net profit of EUR 117.8m in 1Q23 (-7.2% y-o-y). On the OpEx side, variable costs (GGR contribution, agents’ fees and direct costs) are seen shaping at EUR 324.4m, accounting for 59% (-30bps y-o-y) of total GGR, while fixed costs (personnel, marketing, other) are estimated to sharply increase at EUR 108.5m (+22.1% y-o-y); accounting for 19.7% of total GGR vs. 16.9% in 1Q23. The increase in OpEx derived from the inflationary pressures that the company has been facing in the recent quarters (expected to normalize on a y-o-y basis after 3Q24e) and the sharp increase from marketing expenses to further support the Euro jackpot lunch. Consequently, group’s EBITDA margin is estimated to fall at 33.7% (-360bps y-o-y). We note that we have assumed an income of EUR 58m, resulting from the new 10-year lottery/betting license, as well as other operating income/costs (net) from non-gaming operations of EUR 9.7m (almost unchanged vs. last year) in the quarter.

MOH || BUY | CP: 28.44 | TP: EUR 36.70

1Q24e results preview | another strong quarter driven by the favorable refining environment

MOH is scheduled to release its 1Q24e results today, after the close of the market, followed by a conference call tomorrow at 17:30 local time (15:30 UK time). Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 345m (-23% y-o-y on tough comparables, 2% above consensus) and adjusted” net income of EUR 199m (+3% vs. consensus) from “adjusted” net profits of EUR 276m in 1Q23. Accounting for the expected inventory gains of EUR 25m versus losses of EUR 50m in 1Q23, we forecast IFRS EBITDA of EUR 370 (-7% y-o-y) and IFRS net profits of EUR 222m, down by 6% y-o-y. Finally, in respect to dividends, it is reminded that the company has already declared a final DPS of EUR 1.40 for FY23e (ex-date: 26/6, DY: 5.1%), raising total distributions for FY23e to EUR 1.80/share.

Mytilineos plans cumulative investments of EUR 3.3bn in Italy in the next 4 years

According to various press reports, the Chief Executive Director of Mytilineos, Mr Kalafatas, said yesterday that the company plans to invest a total of EUR 3.3bn in Italy in the next 4-year period, with the development of a 3.7GW RES portfolio in the country and also in potential acquisitions in the electricity supply business.

*Euroxx Χρηματιστηριακή (https://www.euroxx.gr)

The market ended yesterday’s session flattish, up 0.2%, to a total of EUR 81.7m volume, while banks marked a 1.6% advance, supported by NBG’s and Eurobank’s 2.3% and 1.8% gains. On non-financials OTE stood out rising c.3%, following the news on the sale of Telecom Romania, with Motor Oil and Sarantis both up c.1.5%. On red, Cenergy recorded the biggest drop, down -4.3%, while Aegean slipped -2.1%, closely followed by Viohalco -2.1%.

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS

HELLENIC TELECOM <HTO GA>

The company announced that it is currently in negotiations with West Network Invest for the potential sale of 100% of Telekom Romania Mobile. The majority shareholder of West Network Invest is Digi Romania. The two companied have already signed a memorandum of understanding and are in the process of requesting approvals from the Romanian regulatory authorities.

ATHENS EXCHANGE GROUP <EXAE GA, EW>

Athens Exchange Group reported 1Q24 net profit of EUR 4.35m, in line with our forecast of EUR 4.3m. The revenues came in at EUR 13.5m (+15.7% yoy), driven by the strong trading volumes in 1Q24 with the average ADTV at EUR 148m vs. 2023 averages of EUR 111m and EUR 113m in the same period last year. EBITDA came in at EUR 6.4m (+21% yoy), spot on our forecast with total opex growing by 11.6% yoy. Cost growth was driven by a 21.7% increase in personnel costs due to higher provisions for bonuses and severance payments.

Athens Exchange Group delivered a strong first quarter in view of the solid volumes. If current trading volumes continue, there is an upside risk in our 2024E estimates. Despite the good results, the shares have been a laggard YTD (-3.4% vs. +14.5% for the ASE Index) mainly due to a relatively fair valuation (c.10.3x EV/EBITDA on our 2024E numbers). The management is due to host a conference call today at 15:00 CET.

MOTOR OIL <MOH GA>

Motor Oil is due to announce 1Q24 numbers today after the close. Consensus calls for 1Q24 Adj. EBITDA of EUR 338m (flat mom, -24 yoy) with adj. net profit at EUR 193m (+8%mom, -30% yoy). A conference call is scheduled for Wednesday, May 28th at 17:30 GR time (cc dial ins to be shared upon publication of results).

TERNA ENERGY <TENERGY GA, OW>

The company is due to report its 1Q24 results tomorrow after the market close. No conference call is scheduled for the quarterly results.

*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.gr)

Market Comment // The ASE Index traded in positive territory throughout Monday’s session opening strongly (intra-day highs at +1.14%) but losing momentum after midday, eventually settling at 1,481 points (+0.24%). Trading activity remained thin due to US and UK holidays, with turnover shaping at €82mn. HTO topped the leaderboard, surging by 3.0%, followed by NBG (+2.3%) and Eurobank (+1.9%), while Premia (+1.7%), Motor Oil (+1.6%) and Mytilineos (+1.5%) also finished on strong gains. On the contrary, Cenergy shed 4.3%, followed by Kri-Kri (-3.1%), Quest Holdings (-2.9%), CCH (-2.2%), Profile (-2.1%) and Aegean Airlines (-2.1%). Today markets are headed for a positive opening, as optimism prevails on the first trading day of the week for the US and UK, ahead of the PCE inflation print on Friday.

Motor Oil // Scheduled to release its Q1’24 results today, post-market close. In a quarter with improved refining margins qoq, we expect strong results, albeit at lower levels yoy given the base effect. We project Q1’24 revenue to settle at €3.19bn (-4% yoy) and adjusted EBITDA at €331mn (-8% yoy). In terms of bottom line, we estimate adjusted net income at €186mn (-7% yoy).

Athens Exchange // Strong results, with Q1 EBITDA at €6.4mn, in line with our estimate, driven by robust trading activity in the cash market (ADT up 31% yoy at €148mn), higher market capitalization (up 37% yoy at €98bn) and increased corporate actions. Net income surged to €4.35mn (compared to €3.33mn in Q1 2023), also benefited by higher financial income due to the higher rates on deposits. Athex will hold its AGM on June 13th to approve, among other items, a DPS of €0.24 per share (DY at 4.7%).

OTE // OTE has announced that it is in negotiations with a new interested party, namely West Network Invest (majority owned by Digi Romania), for the sale of Telekom Romania. The previous agreement was with Clever Media Network (who is also minority shareholder in West Network Invest), but this does not seem to have proceeded. Given that the parties “are in the process of filing for approval with the Romanian competent authorities”, we believe any news should not be expected until after the summer.

OPAP // Q1 results tomorrow post market close; we expect 2.2% revenue growth (to €539m) but the front-loaded marketing spending is set to weigh on EBITDA which will fall c3% yoy on our estimates to €191m. This will lead to a c4% reduction in net profit to €114m.

Cenergy Holdings // Cenergy Holdings is due to release its Q1’24 results tomorrow. We anticipate a solid start to the year with revenues up 7% yoy (at €408m) spurred by better pricing on the cables backlog and improved overall execution across both divisions vs 2023. We pin adj. EBITDA at €52.8m (+20% vs Q1’23), expecting mix effects from higher quality project intake to carry over from Q4’23, driving a c1.4pps expansion to the blended group adj. EBITDA margin (reaching c12.9% in Q1’24). Our estimates lead to Q1’24 PBT of €21.9m (+18% yoy, also boosted by c3% lower financial expenses) and Net profit of €17.8m (vs €15.4m in Q1’23).

Noval Property // Noval Property’s IPO is set to commence tomorrow and will run until May 31st, with the price range expected to be announced later today. The company aims to raise up to €43.5 million with a maximum price of €2.82 per share (c29% discount to 2023 NAV).

Mytilineos // At a company event held in Milan, management indicated that the Group is considering M&A targets in the electricity supply sector in Italy. Regarding RES, the Group highlighted its local portfolio of 3.7 GW and estimated that the total investment required would exceed €3bn.

Terna Energy // Scheduled to release Q1’24 results tomorrow (after-market). We expect a strong start to the year, estimating Q1 revenue at €100mn (+36% yoy) and EBITDA at €63.3mn (+46% yoy) due to higher installed capacity (following the commercial operation of the Kafireas wind park), as well as improved wind conditions yoy. The improved profitability will filter through to a net profit of €27.2mn, on our estimate, suggesting a 56% boost yoy.

Kri-Kri // Kri-Kri is scheduled to release its Q1’24 results tomorrow after market close. We expect revenues to increase c11% yoy, as volume growth in international markets more than offsets price/mix headwinds. We anticipate EBIT of €7.6m, down <€1m yoy, indicating a strong start to the year and pointing to upside risk to our FY24e.

Motodynamics // Shares trade ex-div today; gross DPS at €0.1219, with the net amount (post 5% withholding tax) shaping at €0.11588 per share (3.8% yield). Payment will commence on 3rd June.

* Tα παραπάνω σχόλια μπορείτε να τα διαβάσετε πρώτοι στο viber του mikrometoxos.gr

ΓΙΝΕΤΕ ΜΕΛΟΣ ΕΔΩ

ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.