Διεθνούς Αερολιμένα Αθηνών: H Deutsche Bank ανεβάζει το στόχο για τη μετοχή στα 10,25 ευρώ από 9 ευρώ προηγουμένως. Με βάση την τιμή-στόχο, η Deutsche Bank βλέπει περιθώριο ανόδου άνω του 11% για τη μετοχή.
Όμιλος Profile, 2024: ο κύκλος εργασιών παρουσίασε αύξηση κατά 33% και ανήλθε σε € 40,1 εκατ. έναντι € 30,1 εκ. το αντίστοιχο διάστημα του 2023. Τo EBITDA παρουσίασε αύξηση κατά 41% και διαμορφώθηκαν σε € 10,3 εκατ. Διανομή μερίσματος αυξημένου κατά 33%, σε σχέση με πέρυσι €0,064657 ανά μετοχή.
Τιτάν: Στα 2,64 δισ. ευρώ αυξήθηκε ο τζίρος του ομίλου (+3,8%) καταγράφοντας άνοδο για τέταρτο συνεχόμενο έτος. Στα 315,3 εκατ. ευρώ με άνοδο 17,3% τα καθαρά κέρδη. Tο Δ.Σ. προτείνει έκτακτη ad-hoc αύξηση του ετήσιου μερίσματος κατά €2 ανά μετοχή, διαμορφώνοντας το συνολικό μέρισμα σε €3 ανά μετοχή.
Τράπεζα Κύπρου: Καθαρά κέρδη €508 εκ. το 2024 (+4%), μέρισμα 211 εκατ. ευρώ. Στα €822 εκ. αυξήθηκαν τα καθαρά έσοδα από τόκους της τράπεζας. Στο 50% το ποσοστό διανομής για το 2024, προχωρά και σε επαναγορά ιδίων μετοχών ύψους 30 εκατ. ευρώ. Δείκτης ΜΕΔ στο 1,9%, δείκτης κεφαλαιακής επάρκειας CET1 στο 19,2%.
Lamda: Πωλήσεις €665 εκ. (€589εκ συνολικές εισπράξεις από πωλήσεις ακινήτων), +48% σε ετήσια βάση. Ενοποιημένα καθαρά κέρδη ύψους 46,3 εκατ. ευρώ, αυξημένα 71%. Νέο ιστορικό ρεκόρ Retail EBITDA (4 Εμπορικά Κέντρα σε λειτουργία) στα €88εκ, + 9% και νέο ιστορικό ρεκόρ EBITDA για τις Μαρίνες στα €19εκ, +8%.
ATHEX headed marginally south yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index narrowed by 0.03% at 1,746.18 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.03%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.05% Banks Index: -1.03%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 247.0m, down from Wednesday’s EUR 378.5m. We anticipate a mild profit taking today, with Profile Software in focus.
Macro Headlines
Greek parliamentary budget office confirms GDP growth estimate of 2.2%-2.5% for 2025e
In its latest review of the Greek Economy, the Greek parliamentary budget office reiterated its GDP growth estimate of 2.2%-2.5% in 2025e.
Sector Headlines
Facts: According to BoG, total credit to the economy (incl. the general government) came in at EUR 198.5bn in February 2025 (+6.2% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow of EUR 7.0m), on the back of negative monthly net flow by EUR 1,416 of the general government. On the positive side, loans to the private sector climbed by 10.5% y-o-y to EUR 122.8bn (positive monthly net flow of EUR 1,409m).
Comment: Net credit expansion turned positive again in February due to corporate loans that reached EUR ca83.8bn (+16.5% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 1,438m). Loans to sole proprietors stood at EUR 3.97bn (+0.2% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 4m). Moreover, household lending was shaped at EUR 35.1bn (-0.5% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 33m). Housing loans came in at EUR 26.3bn (-2.5% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 40m). Consumer credit reached EUR 8.58bn (+5.6% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 13m). Corporate loans accounted for 68.2% of private sector loans, household loans for 28.6% and loans to sole proprietors for 3.2% respectively.
Facts: BoG announced that system deposits came in at EUR 206.2bn (+4.9% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow of EUR 774m) in February 2025. General Government deposits reached EUR 8.9bn (+15.3% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 928m) and private sector deposits amounted to EUR 197.3bn (+4.5% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 1,701m). Corporate deposits came in at EUR ca48.2bn (+9.4% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 1,306m) and household deposits reached EUR 149.1bn (+3.0% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 396m). Household deposits accounted for 75.6% of private sector deposits and corporate for the remaining 24.4%.
Comment: The monthly drop in private sector deposits (EUR -1,701m) in February is attributed to both corporate (EUR -1,306m) and household deposits (EUR -396m). Time deposits recorded a negative monthly net flow by EUR 1,018m to EUR ca36.6bn and accounted for 17.7% of system depos vs. 18.2% in January. Liquidity remained ample, with the LDR at 62.2% vs. 61.1% in January and the commercial surplus narrowed to EUR 74.5bn from 77.4bn in January.
Company Headlines
Titan Cement || BUY | CP EUR 43.95 | TP EUR 50.50
Titan Group 2024 Results out- slightly above; EUR 3.0 DPS, well above our estimate; Positive outlook for 2025e
Titan Cement reported earlier 2024 Revenue of EUR 2.644m, up by 3.8% y-o-y, EBITDA of EUR 592m (excluding EUR 12m for the US listing), up by 9.6% y-o-y and Net Profits at EUR 315.3m, up by 17.3% y-o-y, while Net Debt dropped to EUR 622m (Net Debt/EBITDA at 1.02x). The management declared a FY24 dividend of EUR 3/share (of which EUR 2/share special dividend), well above our EUR 1.07/share estimate.
4Q/FY24 Group Key P&L Results
Greece: Performance in Greece was reflected in another very strong quarter, closing the year with both domestic cement consumption and Group’s sales volumes growing double digits. Overall, growth was balanced across all main construction segments and maintained its strong momentum throughout the year. Consequently, 4Q24 sales rose by 10.6% y-o-y to 120.3m, resulting however in EBITDA of EUR 12.4m from EUR 12.6m a year ago.
US: Titan America sustained a high level of sales and recorded growth in EBITDA profitability despite unfavorable weather conditions that hit the Eastern seaboard in the second semester, including a number of severe hurricanes, heavy rainfall and snow in Q4. In this context, US sales dropped by 1.6% y-o-y to EUR 366.6m in Q424, while EBITDA adj. rose by 4% y-o-y to EUR 80m, excluding the one-off costs related to the US IPO.
SEE Europe: Following a slowdown in 3Q24, the SEE region regained its momentum in 4Q24 and closed the year with improved sales and profitability, while overall volumes for the year remained stable at high levels, amidst mixed performance across countries and different market segments. That said, regional turnover was down by 3.0% y-o-y to EUR 104.7m in 4Q24, while cost efficiency improvements resulted in segmental EBITDA of EUR 39.3m, up by 0.8% y-o-y.
EMED: In the Eastern Mediterranean region, the transition to healthier macroeconomic conditions continues, albeit at a rather slow pace. Against this backdrop, turnover rose by 3.0% y-o-y to EUR 67.8m, while EBITDA in 4Q24 was down by 24.5% y-o-y to EUR 11.5m.
Below the EBITDA line: Below EBITDA: Contribution from participations (mainly Brazil JV) in 2024 was positive at EUR 8m from EUR 2.6m in 2023, depreciation expenses stood at EUR 165.8m (+10.4% y-o-y), financial expenses (including FX impact) ended lower at EUR 29.6m (down from EUR 51.2m a year ago), while the effective tax rate shaped at 22.7%. Operating Cash Flow posted inflows of EUR 452.8, net capex shaped at EUR 256m, while Group net debt closed at EUR 622m (Net Debt/EBITDA at 1.02x.
Conference call highlights:
- a)positive outlook for 2025e, with resilient demand and pricing,
- b)Titan Group currently holds 86.7% of Titan America after the IPO
- c)Will hold a new investor day this autumn, possibly October, with updated targets until 2029e
- d)Group Capex for 2025e to exceed EUR 300m in 2025e
- e)Probably will launch a new Share Repurchase programme after the termination of the current this June
Comment: The Group has delivered another strong year, with solid growth across the regions, and primarily driven by the US ops. In our view, the positive 2025e outlook and the generous dividend of EUR 3/share (DY: 7%, ex-date: 30 June) and also the valuation of the US stock (TTAM) will be main short term catalysts for the Group stock. That said, we reiterate our Buy recommendation on the stock with the Target Price unchanged at EUR 50.50/share.
METLEN to invest in extraction of Germanium and Scandium
During a visit of the EC vice president to the Aluminium of Greece facility, the CEO and Chairman of METLEN, Mr. Mytilineos said that the Company plans investments also in the rare earths of Germanium and Scandium, adding that more details will be provided in the Capital Markets Day event on 28 April. It is noted that METLEN’s R&D team has already developed the Scale UP project, which is responsible for the extraction of scandium from bauxite residues and continuous optimization of the process at the Agios Nikolaos plant.
OPAP Total Gaming Revenues up by 22.3% in January (press)
According to Kathimerini citing data from the Hellenic Gaming Committee, OPAP’s TGR (Total Gaming Revenue) in January shaped at EUR 282.85m, up 22% y-o-y.
Profile Software reported robust 2024 results
Profile reported a robust set of results driven by high growth rates, strong FCF generation and higher net cash position. In more detail, group revenues came in at EUR 40.1m (+33% y-o-y), EBITDA at EUR 10.3m (+41% y-o-y) and net profit at EUR 5.6m (+45% y-o-y). The BoD will propose to the AGM the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.064657/share (+33% y-o-y, DY: 1.2%). FCF came in at EUR 6.8m from outflow of 1.9m in 2023 on the back of soaring OpCF (+406% y-o-y) and lower CapEx (-10% y-o-y). Net cash position increased by EUR 5.9m y-o-y to EUR 11.0m. Management is optimistic for the current year and aims to double its organic revenues over the next three years as well as is exploring opportunities in strategic acquisitions.
Greek equities finished unchanged on Thursday, on an elevated EUR 247m turnover, with selected blue chips’ performance offsetting downward pressures in banks. The banking index was down 1% on the day, with NBG and Eurobank slipping 2% and 1.9% respectively, followed by Alpha Bank down 1%, whereas Piraeus Bank outperformed, up 1.4%. Among top gainers, Titan posted 3.9% gains, following strong FY24 results, AIA recorded a 2.3% advance, Metlen was up 1.8%, OPAP finished 1.4% higher, with GEK Terna and Lamda flat. On market’s laggards, PPC lost 1.7%, Jumbo was down 0.8% and Cenergy marked a modest drop of 0.6%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
According to the quarterly update from the Hellenic Parliamentary Budget Office, the primary surplus might exceed 3.5% of GDP to be used on the reduction of debt.
BANKS
According to BoG, private sector lending recorded a 10.5% yoy increase in February 2025, vs 10% yoy in January, driven by a 16.5% yoy rise in corporate lending. Retail lending was down 0.5%, unchanged from January, broken down to a 5.6% yoy increase in consumer credit vs a 2.5% drop in mortgages. Moreover, private sector deposits were up 4.5% yoy, with balances down EUR 1.7bn mom (mainly driven by seasonality in corporate depos and lower retail time depos).
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCHGR GA, OW>
Bank of Cyprus reported FY24 detailed results. As the results have already been pre-announced, the main news is an update regarding the positive impact of c.1% from CRR III initial implementation in January 2025. This implies a pro-forma CET1 ratio (for Dec 2024) of c.20.2% vs. 19.2% initially reported, best in class among our coverage universe.
METLEN <METLEN GA, OW>
During EU Commission’s Vice President Stéphane Séjourné visit to the industrial complex today, Chairman & CEO Evangelos Mytilineos expressed METLEN’s target to expand critical metals production beyond gallium, to germanium and scandium, both products of bauxite. We remind that METLEN’s investment in gallium production has been officially recognized as a Strategic Project by the European Commission under the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA). A Capital Markets Day is scheduled to take place in London on April 28th.
TITAN CEMENT <TITC GA, OW>
Titan Cement announced FY24 results, slightly better than the preliminary (adjusted EBITDA of EUR 592m vs. EUR 585m initially reported, like for like net profit at EUR 315m vs. EUR 300m in the preliminary numbers). The company also announced an additional ad hoc dividend of EUR 2 per share with the total dividend at EUR 3 per share (yield of 7.1% on yesterday’s close). Conference call highlights: 1/ the management will host n investor day in October with 2026-29 targets; 2/ net debt at year end 2025 will stand below EUR 500m (EUR 622m in Dec 2024 will be reduced by USD 393m from Titan America IPO and USD 87.5m from the sale of Adocim with an outflow of EUR 235m for dividends); 3/ cap ex in 2025 will reach EUR 300m (vs. EUR 250m in 2023); and 4/ management outlook ahead is positive due to the attractive US and European positions, anticipating volume growth and resilient pricing, offsetting increased production and distribution costs.
LAMDA DEVELOPMENT <LAMDA GA, OW>
Conference call highlights: 1/ cash proceeds form residential sales are expected to reach EUR 550m in 2025E, 2/ in 2025 the company will record another EUR 286m of sales completed in 2024; 3/ infrastructure spending will reach EUR 500m (excluding the malls); 4/ most infra works will be completed by end 2026 with the Riviera Tower completion expected in the summer of 2027.
Market Comment // The Greek market traded slightly in the red for most of Thursday’s session but managed to recover in the final hour, closing nearly flat at 1,746.2 points (-0.03%). Trading activity remained elevated, with turnover reaching €247mn, of which €134mn was in banks, followed by €21mn in Metlen and €18mn in Ideal Holdings. Banks led laggards among large caps, with NBG and Eurobank retreating by 2.0% and 1.9% respectively, while Alpha Bank dropped 1.0%. Among non-financials, FAIS shed 2.8% at its trading debut followed by >2% losses in Intralot and Attica Bank. PPC fell 1.7%, followed by Viohalco (-1.3%) and Quest Holdings (-1.0%). On the positive side, Titan Cement rallied 3.9%, followed by Papoutsanis (+2.7%), AIA (+2.3%), and Ideal Holdings (+2.2%), while Profile, Metlen, and Piraeus Bank all closed with gains > 1.5%. Today, EU futures point to a negative opening as investors weigh the potential impact of the U.S. import tariff rollout.
Economy // Corporate lending increased by €1.4bn in February, driven by accelerating investment projects funded by the Recovery Fund and other financial tools. This brought total corporate loans to €83.7bn, up from €82.3bn in January. This credit expansion reflects robust investment activity as businesses utilized liquidity accumulated in previous months, reducing corporate deposits by €1.3bn to €48.2bn. Credit expansion has started the year on a very strong note, surging c16-17% yoy.
Titan Cement // Released its audited FY’24 results, which came in above preliminary guidance, with Q4’24 EBITDA reaching €143mn (+7% vs management’s estimate) and FY’24 EBITDA settling at €580mn (+7% yoy). At the bottom line, net profit slightly exceeded guidance, with the FY’24 figure rising 8% yoy to €289mn. Management proposed a special dividend of €3/share (7% yield), supported by the proceeds from the U.S. IPO. In the conference call following the release, management expressed confidence in the year ahead, guiding for volume and margin growth while confirming plans to host an Investor Day in autumn 2025 to present the updated Strategy 2029.
Profile // Profile delivered solid FY’24 results, broadly in line with our expectations, with revenue at €40.1m (+33% yoy) driven by a rebasement in LSS projects and solid sales growth across Financial Software. Group EBITDA came in at €10.3m (+41% yoy) corresponding to a margin of 25.8% (+1.5pps, a bit below EEe 26.4%) reflecting stronger pricing/mix in Financial, which more than offset the effect from elevated public sector revenues. Group FY’24 PBT landed slightly below expectations at €7.3m (+41% yoy, vs. EEe €8.1m) as the stronger profitability was diluted somewhat by increased financial expenses. The BoD will propose a DPS of €0.0646 per share, increased by 33% yoy.
Metlen // During the visit of the EU Executive Vice President for Industrial Strategy to Metlen’s integrated aluminum plant, management announced their intention to expand into the production of additional bauxite byproducts, namely scandium and germanium, broadening the Group’s critical raw materials strategy beyond gallium.
Lamda // During yesterday’s conference call, management highlighted the Ellinikon progress, with cash proceeds already exceeding €1.1bn to date and another c€550m targeted for 2025 vs c€500m capex in the same year, thus pointing to self-sufficient funding for infrastructure and residential constructions. Regarding the Ellinikon malls, mgt highlighted that Riviera Galeria is on schedule for 2026 completion while the contractor announcement for the Vouliagmenis mall should be expected by May-June 2025, with the targeted construction completion moved to the end-2028.
GEK Terna // According press, the concession of Egnatia Odos is delayed due to the pending certification of 39 tunnels, a key condition required for the deal’s finalization. Although the GEK Terna–Egis consortium has met all prerequisites and financing obligations, the certification process has stalled, pushing back the originally targeted H1 2025 signing.
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