ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακ Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.
Ντιλ 200 εκατ. ευρώ της Alpha Bank για την κυπριακή AstroBank. Η συμφωνία περιλαμβάνει υγιή δάνεια, καταθέσεις και καταστήματα της κυπριακής τράπεζας με το μερίδιο να φτάνει το 10%.
Noval: Στα 20,6 εκατ. ευρώ τα προσαρμοσμένα EBITDA το 2024. Η εύλογη αξία του χαρτοφυλακίου επενδύσεων ανήλθε σε €648,3 εκ. στις 31/12/2024. Διανομή μερίσματος €0,043 ανά μετοχή.
Premia: Αύξηση εσόδων κατά 18% και αύξηση του Adjusted EBITDA κατά 18% σε σχέση με το 2023 στα €14 εκ. Η συνολική αξία επενδύσεων διαμορφώνεται σε € 497,8 εκατ., αυξημένη κατά 62%.
Helleniq Energy: Συγκρίσιμα EBITDA 1,02 δισ. Ευρώ. Διανομή τελικού μερίσματος €0,55 ανά μετοχή που ενσωματώνει €0,3 από την πώληση της ΔΕΠΑ Εμπορίας. Στη ζώνη του 10% η συνολική μερισματική απόδοση. Στα 60 εκ. τα καθαρά κέρδη. Ιστορικά υψηλή παραγωγή 17,2 εκατ. τόνων (+6%). Προς ανάπτυξη της Elpedison μετά την κατοχή του 100%. Εξελίξεις σε όλα τα πεδία (κλάδοι διύλισης, λιανικής εμπορίας, ΑΠΕ, έρευνα υδρογονανθράκων, ψηφιακός μετασχηματισμός).
Ideal: Εκτίναξη κερδών στα 92,2 εκατ. ευρώ το 2024. Άλμα 106% στα έσοδα της εταιρείας, που ανήλθαν στα 374,2 εκατ. ευρώ. UBS: αυξάνει την τιμή-στόχο για τη μετοχή της Τράπεζας Πειραιώς στα 6,30 ευρώ από 5,70 ευρώ πριν.
ATHEX headed marginally south yesterday, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.14% at 1,597.85 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.14%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.59%, Banks Index: +0.48%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 156.1m, up from Wednesday’s EUR 143.7m. We expect the big protests and the international risk-off sentiment to weigh on ATHEX today.
Sector Headlines
Facts: According to BoG, total credit to the economy (incl. the general government) came in at EUR 198.8bn in January 2025 (+7.1% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 1,380m), on the back of negative monthly net flow of the private sector. Loans to the private sector advanced by 10.0% y-o-y to EUR c121.4bn (negative monthly net flow of EUR 1,671m), whilst loans to the general government reached EUR 77.4bn (+2.6% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 290m).
Comment: Net credit expansion turned negative in January due to corporate loans that reached EUR 82.3bn (+15.9% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 1,424m). Loans to sole proprietors stood at EUR 3.97bn (+0.2% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 102m). Moreover, household lending was shaped at EUR 35.1bn (-0.5% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 144m). Housing loans came in at EUR 26.4bn (-2.5% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 122m). Consumer credit reached EUR 8.58bn (+6.0% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 19m). Corporate loans accounted for 67.8% of private sector loans, household loans for 28.9% and loans to sole proprietors for 3.3% respectively.
Facts: BoG announced that system deposits came in at EUR 206.8bn (+4.3% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow of EUR 4,324m) in January 2025. General Government deposits reached EUR 8.0bn (-5.9% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 463m) and private sector deposits amounted to EUR 198.8bn (+4.8% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 4,787m). Corporate deposits came in at EUR 49.5bn (+10.0% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 3,785m) and household deposits reached EUR 149.3bn (+3.1% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 1,002m). Household deposits accounted for 75.1% of private sector deposits and corporate for the remaining 24.9%.
Comment: The monthly drop in private sector deposits (EUR -4,787m) in January is attributed to both corporate (EUR -3,785m) and household deposits (EUR -1,002m). Time deposits recorded a positive monthly net flow by EUR 451m to EUR 37.6bn and accounted for 18.2% of system depos vs. 17.6% in December. Liquidity remained ample, with the LDR at 61.1% vs. 60.4% in December and the commercial surplus narrowed to EUR 77.4bn from 80.7bn in December.
Market Headlines
MSCI standard Greece-no changes
Today after the market close will take place MSCI’s quarterly review, with no changes for the Greek standard index. As a reminder, the MSCI Greece Standard index includes nine Greek companies, namely Piraeus Bank, Eurobank, National Bank, Alpha Bank, OTE, OPAP, JUMBO METLEN and PPC.
ATHEX Indices composition changes
As of today, the shares of Terna Energy will be removed from the indices in which they participate due to low free float. More specifically:
- The shares of TERNA ENERGY will be removed from the composition of the ATHEX Composite Price Index and replaced by the shares of the company “AS COMPANY S.A.” with a free float weighting of 36% and a capping factor of 1.0.
- The shares of TERNA ENERGY will be removed from the composition of the FTSE/ATHEX Large Cap Index and replaced by the shares of the company “AKTOR GROUP OF COMPANIES” with a free float weighting of 26% and a capping factor of 1.0.
- The shares of AKTOR GROUP will be removed from the composition of the FTSE/ATHEX Mid Cap Index and replaced by the shares of the company “ALUMIL S.A.” with a free float weight of 21% and a capping factor of 1.0.
Company Headlines
Alpha Services and Holdings 4Q24 results beat estimates, 75% of remuneration in share buyback, BP targets feasible
Alpha Services and Holdings released earlier 4Q/FY2024, that beat Optima and consensus estimates on higher than expected fee income and lower than expected loan loss provisions and NPA loss. Reported net profit came in at EUR 164.9m (-1% q-o-q) in 4Q24, well above Optima estimate of EUR 111.7m and well above consensus estimate of EUR 134.0m. Reported net profit for the year reached EUR 654.1 m (+6% y-o-y). Shareholders remuneration stood at EUR 281.0m (43% payout of reported net profit, higher than our estimate of 35%), o/w 75% or EUR 210.8m in share Buyback and the remaining 25% or EUR 70.3m/ DPS EUR 0.03 in cash dividend. Gross dividend yield at 1.6%. The results were burdened by a NPA loss of EUR 19.2m, well below Optima estimate of EUR 51.0m and consensus estimate of EUR 35.0m. Net interest income was shaped at EUR 405.7m (-1% q-o-q) in 4Q24, in line with Optima estimate of EUR 403.5m and consensus estimate of EUR 406.0m. Loan loss provisions amounted to EUR 63.2m (+19% q-o-q), 11% below Optima estimate of EUR 71.2m and 3% below consensus estimate of EUR 65.0m.
The business plan envisages reported net profit to reach EUR 850.0m in 2025e, above our estimate of EUR 768.0m and consensus estimate of EUR 787.0m and to exceed EUR 1.0bn in 2027e, well above our estimate of EUR 872.0m and consensus estimate of EUR 833.0m. Reported ROTE is projected at 11% in 2025e and 12% in 2027e. Payout at least 50% of reported net profit over 2025e-2027e against our estimate of 50%. NII is projected to exceed EUR 1.65bn in 2025e, higher than our estimate of EUR ca1.65bn and fee income at EUR 450.0m, above our estimate of EUR 436.0m. Finally, NII is projected to exceed EUR 1.8bn in 2027e, above our estimate of EUR 1.76bn and fee income to surpass EUR 535.0m, above our estimate of EUR 500.0. At first glance, we believe that the targets set are feasible. Alpha is one of our top picks in the sector with TP of EUR 2.55/share. Following the strong set of results, we’ll adjust our estimates and TP accordingly.
Alpha Services and Holdings acquired AstroBank in Cyprus for at least EUR 205.0m
Event: Alpha Services and Holdings announced earlier that its wholly owned subsidiary, Alpha Bank Cyprus Ltd has reached a binding agreement on the key financial and legal terms for the acquisition of substantially the
whole of the banking assets, liabilities, and personnel of AstroBank Public Company in Cyprus for a cash consideration of no less than EUR 205.0m, or at least 0.83x TBV1H24A. The transaction is expected to be completed within 4Q25.
EPS impact: The acquisition is expected to be c.5% accretive to the Group’s EPS and to add c. 60bps to RoTE, post cost and funding synergies.
Capital impact: The transaction is expected to have a limited impact on the Group’s CET1 ratio of around 40bps.
Asset quality impact: The acquisition perimeter will exclude certain of AstroBank’s NPEs, with these being carved out prior to the completion of the transaction, effectively making the acquisition NPE-neutral at Group level.
Strategic rationale: The acquisition aligns with the Group’s strategic objective of strengthening its market presence and financial footprint in core markets. Alpha Bank Cyprus is set to expand significantly, increasing its market share to c.10% in terms of total assets, thereby consolidating its position as the third largest bank in Cyprus. Specifically, Alpha Bank Cyprus is expected to increase its loan portfolio by more than 60%, its deposit base by c.70%, its asset base by c.65%, and, on a fully phased-in synergies basis, double its recurring profitability by exceeding EUR 100.0m in recurring net income going forward.
Alpha Bank Cyprus: According to 9M24 financial statements, Alpha Bank Cyprus generated a net profit of EUR 44.0m (-12% y-o-y) and operated a network of 12 branches. Net loans reached EUR 986.0m and deposits EUR ca3.1bn.
Astro Bank Cyprus: According to 6M24 financial statements, Astro Bank Cyprus generated a net profit of EUR 19.5m (+77% y-o-y) and operated a network of 15 branches. Net loans reached EUR 855.2m, deposits EUR ca2.17bn, tangible equity EUR 248.2m and assets EUR 2.6bn.
View: In our view, the move is positive, since it is a) EPS accretive, b) has a limited capital impact, c) has a neutral-NPE impact, d) strenghtens the deposit base and e) will invigorate the group’s small presence in Cyprus.
Eurobank Holdings | BUY | CP: EUR 2.50 | TP: 3.00
4Q24 results beat our call, BP targets depend on fee income evolution
View: Eurobank delivered a good set of 4Q24 results, on higher than expected fee income and lower than expected OpEx. On the flipside, net profit in Greece was weak as it dropped by 11.8% y-o-y in 2024 due to one-off losses and by 1.6% y-o-y on a normalized basis, while group NPE formation was positive for a fourth consecutive quarter. As far as the BP targets are concerned, we believe that they largely depend on the evolution of fee income, even though Eurobank has a strong track record in wealth management and the firepower to explore M & A opportunities. Recall that group fees including Hellenic Bank climbed by 22.4% y-o-y in 2024 and by 13.5%, without Hellenic.
Shareholders remuneration 2024: Shareholders remuneration reached EUR 674m (50% payout, in line with our estimate of 50%), o/w EUR 386m (57% of remuneration) in cash dividend, corresponding to DPS of EUR 0.1050 and the remaining EUR 288m (43% of remuneration) in share buyback. Gross dividend yield at 4.2%. Recall that the AGM of shareholders will take place on Wednesday 30 April 2025.
Group KPIs 4Q24: Reported net profit came in at EUR 313.0m (-24% q-o-q) in 4Q24, well above Optima estimate of EUR 247.0m. Net interest income was shaped at EUR 677.3m in 4Q24 (-3% q-o-q), broadly in line with Optima estimate of EUR 668.1m. NIM squeezed by 11bps q-o-q to 2.70%. Fee income came in at EUR 215.3m (+28% q-o-q), well above our estimate of EUR 171.0m, primarily due to a one-off lending fee of EUR 26.0m from the Attica Ring Road as well as due to higher than expected fees from wealth management and capital markets. Total revenues reached EUR 890.3m (-0.1% q-o-q) and OpEx rose by 7% y-o-y to EUR 317.2m, 7% below our estimate. Pre-provision profit came in at EUR 573.1m (-4% q-o-q) and LLPs rose by 6% q-o-q to EUR 90.5m, on spot with our estimate. Positive organic NPE formation of EUR 47m in Q4 and group NPEs stood at EUR 1.54bn with the NPE ratio stable q-o-q at 2.9%, whilst the NPE cash coverage narrowed to 88.4% vs. 89.9% in 3Q24.
Group KPIs 2024: Reported net profit reached EUR ca1.45bn (+27% y-o-y) and reported RoaTBV stood at 18.0%. Group NIM eroded by 2bps y-o-y to 2.73%. NII jumped by 15% y-o-y to EUR 2.51bn and fee income by 665.8m (+22% y-o-y). Total revenues reached EUR 3.24bn (+16% y-o-y) and OpEx stood at EUR 1.07bn (+19% y-o-y). PPI came in at EUR 2.17bn (+14% y-o-y) and LLPs at EUR 319.4m (-7% y-o-y). CoR narrowed to 69bps from 85bps in 2023. NPEs formation of EUR 222.0m.
Greece KPIs 2024: Reported net profit slipped by 11.8% y-o-y to EUR 740.7m and accounted for 51.2% of group’s reported net profit. The drop is attributed to one-off losses of EUR 34.7m. Normalized net profit also fell by 1.6% y-o-y. NII reached EUR 1.48bn (-2.2% y-o-y) and NIM squeezed by 4bps y-o-y to 2.54%. Fee income rose by 14.2% y-o-y to EUR 481.2m and revenues fell by 2.2% y-o-y to EUR 1.98bn. On the cost side, OpEx rose by 2.9% y-o-y and LLPs fell by 10.1% y-o-y.
International operations KPIs 2024: Reported net profit came in at EUR 707.1m (+136.2% y-o-y) primarily due to the consolidation of Hellenic Bank in Cyprus. International operations accounted for 48.8% of group’s reported net profit. NII was shaped at EUR 1.02bn (+55.7% y-o-y) and NIM squeezed by 17bps y-o-y to 3.08%. Fee income climbed by 50.7% y-o-y to EUR 184.6m and revenues by 62.0% y-o-y to EUR 1.26bn. On the cost side, OpEx jumped by 58.6% y-o-y and LLPs rose by 6.6% y-o-y.
Balance Sheet: NCE reached EUR 3.9bn in 2024 and EUR 1.8bn in 4Q24. Group gross loans accelerated to EUR 52.3bn in 4Q24 from EUR 50.4bn in 3Q24. Gross loans in Greece rose to EUR 34.7bn in 4Q24 vs. EUR 33.3bn in 3Q24, in Bulgaria to EUR 7.8bn from EUR 7.4bn in 3Q24 and in Cyprus to EUR 8.8bn in 4Q24 from EUR 8.7bn in 3Q24. On the other side, group deposits increased by EUR 4.0bn q-o-q to EUR 78.6bn, with time deposits at EUR 28.6bn or 36.4% of group depos. Deposits in Greece increased by EUR 2.3bn q-o-q and in international operations by EUR ca1.7bn. Group assets stood at EUR 101.1bn.
Capital: FL CET1 stood at 15.7% post payout accrual and shaped at EUR 7.71bn and RWAs at EUR 49.1bn respectively. FL CAD also stood at 18.5%. Tangible book value stood at EUR 8.48bn or EUR 2.31/share, including EUR 136m deduction from HB 37.5% additional stake acquisition, which has no P&L impact.
Hellenic Bank: Eurobank aims to squeeze-out & delist Hellenic in 2Q25 in order to merge with Eurobank Cyprus. The operational merger will be completed over the next 2 years. Management has guided for an envelope of synergies of EUR 120m over 2025e-2027e, o/w 40% or EUR 48.0m will be realized in 2025e.
BUSINESS PLAN 2025e-2027e
Focus on wealth management and insurance income
P & L Targets: Eurobank goals Core Operating Profit (Core PPI-LLPs) to shape at EUR 1.70bn in 2025, 5% above our estimate of EUR 1.62bn, on the back of higher fee income and to gradually accelerate to EUR 1.9bn in 2027e. NII is projected to be flattish in 2025, in line with our estimate and to increase to EUR 2.7bn in 2027e. Fee income is expected to be the spearhead of growth and to accelerate to EUR 740.0m (+11% y-o-y) in 2025 and to EUR 850.0m in 2027e. It targets fees from wealth management & insurance CAGR of 30% over 2025e-2027e. Recall that the completion of the acquisition of CNP in Cyprus will be completed next week.
NII sensitivity: EUR 40m for every 25bps change in 3M Euribor.
Payout: Payout is expected to be at least 50% over 2025e-2027e and management has guided for cumulative payouts of more than EUR 2.0bn in the same period.
Group Loans: Management expects group loans to rise by 7.5% per annum over 2025e-2027e and cumulative NCE to stand at EUR 11.2bn in the same period.
Group Deposits: Management targets CAGR of 3.0% over 2025e-2027e.
Capital: FL CET1 is expected to widen to 15.8% in 2025e and 16.0% in 2027e, assuming 50% payout, in line with our estimate. According to management, organic capital generation maintains strategic optionality of EUR >1.5bn for potential inorganic growth opportunities in banking, insurance and asset management in the three core markets (Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria) plus Luxembourg.
CC HIGHLIGHTS
- Management did not exclude the possibility the payout to be slightly higher than 50% but won’t accelerate to 70% since it examines M & A opportunities in banking, insurance and wealth management in the three core markets (Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria) plus Luxembourg. Similar distribution mix with 2024.
- Treasury shares will be cancelled.
- They expect the approval of SSM and the AGM on 30 April in order to distribute the cash dividend in May.
- FL Basel IV impact at 60bps.
- They will open a repo office in Mumbai in the next month and consider a repo office in Abu Dhabi.
- The use of Danish Compromise is not very clear for Greek banks. If it can be applied, they would consider it seriously for a potential acquisition in the sector.
National Bank of Greece definitive agreement with Bracebridge Capital, LLC for the disposal of a portfolio of NPEs (Project Frontier III)
National Bank of Greece announced that it entered into a definitive agreement with Bracebridge Capital, LLC for the sale of 95% of the Mezzanine and Junior notes of a NPE portfolio with a total gross book value of EUR ca. 700.0m (Project Frontier III). NBG will retain 100% of the Senior notes, utilizing the provisions of the Hellenic Asset Protection Scheme and 5% of the Mezzanine and Junior notes. The total proceeds for NBG mainly reflect the Senior notes and the consideration for the Mezzanine and Junior notes, corresponding to c.63% of the total gross book value of the Frontier ΙII Portfolio or EUR ca441.0m. The transaction is expected to be capital accretive and to be completed within Q225. Following the completion of the transaction, doValue Greece will undertake the servicing of the Frontier III Portfolio.
National Bank of Greece wants to acquire stake in Bank of Cyprus-Press
Reportedly (mononews), National Bank of Greece wants to acquire a stake in Bank of Cyprus. According to ATHEX official data, Lamesa Investments holds a 9.33% stake, Senvest Management a 8.72% stake, Car Val Investors a 5.89% stake and EBRD a 5.05% stake respectively. We estimate that NBG will have an excess capital of EUR ca1.9bn in 2025e and EUR 2.3bn in 2026e and therefore we anticipate a move in the M & A front in the region.
HELLENiQ ENERGY || Neutral | Target Price: EUR 8.30 | CP: EUR 7.75
4Q24 results Review: Results well above Optima and consensus due to insurance compensation of EUR 104m; declared EUR 0.55 final DPS
Facts: HELLENiQ ENERGY reported 4Q24 “adjusted” group EBITDA up by 1.5% YoY to EUR 273m despite weaker y-o-y refining environment, driven by the Insurance compensation settlement for older damages in the refineries of EUR 104m in 4Q24 (beating significantly consensus and our estimate), while “adjusted” net income shaped at EUR 117m from “adjusted” net profits of EUR 111m in 4Q23, also well above our call and consensus. Accounting for inventory and one-off losses of EUR 84m in 4Q24 vs. inventory and one-off losses of EUR 122m in 4Q23, HELLENiQ ENERGY reported IFRS EBITDA of EUR 189m, up by 29% YoY and IFRS net profits of EUR 48m (including the EUR 173m solidarity tax) compared to net profits of EUR 15 in 4Q23. HELLENiQ ENERGY declared a final DPS of EUR 0.55, which includes the proceeds from the DEPA transaction (DY: 7.1%, ex-date: 2 July).
Domestic refining and trading division: HELLENiQ ENERGY’s realized blended margin (incl. propylene contribution which is reported under Petchems) in 4Q24 rose to USD 11.5/bl from USD 10.9/bbl in 3Q24 and well below the USD 16.1/bbl in 4Q23, well outperforming the USD 5.6/bbl benchmark margin. The refinery utilization rate in 4Q24 was at historic high of 114% vs. 107% a year ago. Sales volume was consequently up by 4% YoY to 4.13m tons, driven by an 4.5% YoY rise in exports sales to 2,271 tons. All in, 4Q24 “adjusted” EBITDA stood at EUR 232m (vs. EUR 236m a year ago), benefited by the EUR 104m insurance compensation.
Marketing: Domestic demand in 4Q24 rose by 4% YoY driven by higher by 11% higher Heating Gasoil, while Diesel and Gasoline demand was also up by 3%. Jet fuel demand was also up by 7% YoY, while bunkering demand was up down 76% YoY. However, domestic EBITDA was unchanged y-o-y at EUR -2m, while international marketing EBITDA was up by 9% YoY to EUR 15m, also aided by the network expansion by 6 petrol stations.
Petrochemicals: Bottoming PP margins led to lower petchems contribution, with Adj. EBITDA down by 75% YoY at EUR 2m in 4Q24.
Power & gas (equity consolidation): Elpedison’s EBITDA contribution in 4Q24 was negative at EUR 5m from EUR 3m loss in 4Q23 driven by fewer opportunities in natural gas wholesale and weak supply contribution.
RES: segmental profitability in 4Q24 shaped at EUR 11m (from EUR 8m in 4Q23), with the installed capacity reaching 494MW by 4Q24-end (from 356MW a year ago).
FCF & Net debt: FCF in 2024 was weaker y-o-y at EUR 295m from FCF of EUR 726m in 2023 on lower operating profitability and increased by EUR 166m investing outflows of EUR 405m. After paying EUR 277m for dividends and EUR 127m for interest expenses, group net debt (excluding leasing liabilities) rose marginally by 165m y-t-d in 2024 to EUR 1.79bn.
Conference call comments: a) Elefsina turnaround to commence next month, and in Aspropyrgos in 2025-end, b) RES capacity currently at 494MW, expects to meet the 1GW RES milestone in 2026, 2GW by 2030, c) refining environment is improved in February, expects a better environment in 2025 compared to 2024, d) test drilling investment decision to be taken in 3Q25.
ΟΤΕ commences share buyback program today
OTE announced that it commences its share buyback program today. The period of execution will run until 21/01/2026 at the latest, and its size is targeted at approximately EUR 153.0m. Own shares will be purchased exclusively for cancellation following a Shareholders’ General Meeting resolution and under the terms of the legal and regulatory framework in force. It is noted that the company currently holds 7,174,751 own shares, acquired in the context of implementation of 2024 Share Buy Back Program, which it intends to cancel following the approval of the next Shareholders General Meeting.
Euroconsultants announced a strategic agreement with Xenios Block Chain Group
The company announced a strategic agreement with XBG which specializes in cybersecurity, blockchain and digital reform. XBG has a leading presence in cutting-edge technologies and it’s the advisor of Hellenic Capital Market Commission.
NOVAL Property FY24 Results Review
Noval Property released a solid set of FY24 Financial Results with Rental income up by 14% y-o-y to EUR 33.4m driven by new tenant leases and rental adjustments of more favorable terms to existing tenants, EBITDA adj (i.e. excluding revaluation gains) up by 16% to EUR 20.6m, Net profit (including revaluation gains) of EUR 46.8m, vs. EUR 63.7m a year ago and FFO at EUR 10.8m vs. EUR 6.3m in FY23. Additionally, NAV was up by 21% y-o-y to EUR 519.1m, while adjusting for shares outstanding NAV/share shaped at EUR 4.11/share implying a 39% discount compared to yesterday’s stock price. Management will propose a dividend of EUR 0.043/share up by 72% y-o-y. (DY: 1.7%).
Premia Properties FY24 Results Review
Premia Properties released a strong set of results with total revenues up by 17.9% y-o-y to EUR 22.5m, EBITDA adj. (i.e. excluding revaluation gains) up by 17.5% to EUR 14.1m, net profit (including revaluation gains) of EUR 39.9m, vs. EUR 7.2m a year ago and FFO at EUR 4.1m vs. EUR 5.2m in FY23. Additionally, NAV was up by 33.8% y-o-y to EUR 197m, while adjusting for shares outstanding NAV/share shaped at EUR 2.07/share implying a 38.6% discount compared to yesterday’s stock price.
Trade Estates Financial Calendar 2025
Trade Estates will report FY24 results on Wednesday 2 April 2025 with the conference call scheduled for the next day. The AGM of the company is set for Friday 13 June 2025 and the dividend ex-date is set for Thursday 19 June.
Ideal Holdings FY24 Results out
Ideal Holdings delivered an exceptionally high set of results. Group revenues came in at EUR 374.2m (+106% y-o-y), aided by the organic growth of ICT companies, the contribution of the newly acquired Bluesream Solutions and the addition of Attica Department Stores. EBITDA of the group came in at EUR 50m (+113% y-o-y) and EBT came in at EUR 14.9m up by 70% y-o-y, while net profit came in at EUR 92.9m (+446% y-o-y), including one off of EUR 74.6m from the transfer of its industrial segment to Guala Closures. Finally, the company has a net cash position of EUR 28.8m compared to a net debt of EUR 73.3m in FY23. Management stated that the acquisition of BARBA STATHIS is expected to be completed in 2Q25, for a total consideration of EUR 130m.
The ASE Index finished unchanged on Thursday, recovering from early losses, while turnover stood at EUR 156m. The banking index ended flattish on the day (+0.4%), with NBG outperforming gaining c.1.9%, with the other major banks hovering around the flatline. On market’s top gainers, OTE was up 1.6%, GEK Terna posted 1.2% gains and PPC rose 1.1%, with OPAP flattish +0.4%. On underperformers, Jumbo continued to face downward pressures, down 2.6%, Metlen retreated c1.8%, Titan and Lamda slipped 1.5% and 1.3% respectively. NBG reports its 4Q24 results before the market opens. The market will be closed on Monday due to a public holiday.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
According to the EU Commission, the Economic Sentiment Index in Greece stood at 106.9 points in February 2025. compared to 108.6 in January.
BANKS
Private sector lending growth advanced by 10% yoy in January (vs. a growth of 8.9% yoy in 2024). The main growth driver remains the corporate space (+15.9% yoy) with retail lending at -0.5% yoy (-2.5% in mortgages and +6.0% in consumer loans). On a mom basis, outstanding balances declined by by c.EUR 1.7bn due to the usual year end seasonality. On the deposit front, private sector balances grew by 4.8% yoy in January but declined by EUR 4.7bn mom (again due to the usual year end seasonality).
ALPHA BANK <ALPHA GA, OW>
Alpha Bank announced: 1/ solid 4Q24 results with net profit (recurring) of EUR 201m slightly ahead of our numbers (EUR 191m) and consensus (EUR 181m) due to stronger fees and trading income but also confirming the more resilient NII (down 0.6% qoq vs. 2.9% for Eurobank and 3.0% for Piraeus); 2/ business plan targets that are ahead of consensus with guidance for reported net profit of >EUR 1.0bn in 2027E (consensus at EUR 834m, ours at EUR 980m) with NII flattish in 2025E and >EUR 1.8bn in 2027E; 3/ distribution of EUR 281m our of 2024 net profits (43% payout, of which 75% in buyback and 25% in cash dividends; distribution is in line with our estimate with a management target for equal or greater than 50% in the 2025-27E period; 4/ the acquisition of 100% of Astrobank in Cyprus for a price of EUR 205m (P/BV of 0.8x on reported June 2024 equity) that will, according to management, enhance EPS by 5% in year 2, improve ROTE by 60bps with a CET1 impact of c.40bps. The management will host a conference call today at 12:00 Greek time (11:00 CET). Dial in numbers Greece: + 30 211 180 2000; UK (local & International): + 44 (0) 203 059 5872; US: + 1 516 447 5632
EUROBANK <EUROB GA, OW>
Eurobank reported another solid quarter with net earnings (recurring) of EUR 340m, slightly ahead of our estimates and consensus (c.EUR 325m) due to higher NII and fees. Management will propose a pay-out ratio of 50% out of 2024 profits i.e. EUR 674m (of which EUR 386n in cash dividends and EUR 288m in a share buyback). The total distribution yield stands at 7.4% (in line with our forecast for c.EUR 700m distribution). Eurobank also presented the business plan targets up to 2027E. The management expects a ROTE of c.15% by 2027E, implying a net profit of c.EUR 1.6bn, which is broadly in line with our forecast. On the 2027E guidance the shares trade on a P/E of 5.9x, a P/TBV of 0.78x and a dividend yield of c.8% p.a. We think this is inexpensive relative to periphery peers (P/E on 2027E at 8.2x, P/BV of 0.96x and dividend yield of 7.2%) with Eurobank posting a superior sustainable ROTE (15% vs. c.13% for peers in Southern Europe).
HELLENIQ ENERGY <ELPE GA, OW>
Helleniq Energy reported 4Q24 numbers yesterday after the close. 4Q24 adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 273m (+2%yoy), including a one-off insurance claim of EUR 102m for Elefsina refinery and net profit of EUR 117m, up 6% yoy with benchmark refining margins closer to mid-cycle levels. Refining adj EBITDA came in at EUR 232m, down 2% yoy (EUR 795m, -24%yoy) on sales volume increase of 6% and record utilization levels. Refining margin stood at USD 13.3/bbl (from USD16.1/bbl in 4Q23) with HELLENiQ outperforming benchmark by USD 5.3/bbl. Weak polypropylene margin in the quarter weighed on profitability with 4Q24 adj EBITDA at EUR 2m, and EUR 54m for the year (+25%yoy). Domestic marketing EBITDA remained flat on qoq basis but increased 21% yoy, driven by higher sales volume, with international also demonstrating an upward trend of 9% yoy in terms of adj EBITDA (EUR 75m for the year). On RES, installed capacity stands at 494MW, with 4Q EBITDA up 28% yoy to EUR 11m (EUR 46m for the year, +10%yoy), with management reiterating its 1.0GW installed capacity target by 2026E and 2.0G by 2030. With regards to ELPEDISON, management expects conclusion of 50% stake acquisition to be completed by 2Q25. Net debt/Adj EBITDA stood at 1.7x, from 1.3x in 2023. The company announced a final DPS of EUR 0.55/share, including EUR 0.30/share from DEPA proceeds (FY24 DPS EUR0.75/share, 10% dividend yield), targeting payout of 35-50% on adjusted net earnings. In a question regarding fuel cap on retail, management reiterated that there is no clear outlook on when the cap will be lifted.
NBG <ETE GA, OW>
NBG announced that the bank entered into an agreement with Bracebridge Capital for the sale of 95% of the Mezzanine and Junior notes from a securitization backed by a portfolio of non-performing exposures, with a total gross value of EUR 700m. The transaction is expected to be completed in 2Q25.
AKTOR GROUP <AKTR GA, OW>
Aktor will be included in the FTSE Large Cap index today, as per ATHEX announcement.
HELLENIC TELECOM <HTO GA>
OTE announced a share buyback program of c.EUR 153m, commencing tomorrow until January 2026.
Market Comment // Greek stocks ended lower (-0.14%) on Thursday, though early morning pressure was contained after midday, supported by heavyweights NBG and OTE. Turnover shaped higher at €156m, still below the 100-d moving average of c€159m. NBG (+1.89%) topped the leaderboard, followed by OTE (+1.66%) and >1% gains in a just a few names such as GEK Terna, EYATH and PPC. However, selling pressure was evident throughout the session, with Aktor shedding >4%, trailed by losses in Jumbo and Premia (both down >2%) and more than 1% declines in Metlen, Titan, Optima, Lamda, EXAE, EYDAP, Thrace Plastics, Austriacard and OLP. Today we expect selling pressure to continue in the light of worsening tariff rhetoric by the US administration.
Alpha Bank // Alpha Bank’s Q4 results outperformed both our estimates and consensus, with Adjusted Net Income exceeding expectations by over 5%, reaching €196 million. Despite a 14% qoq decline and an 8% yoy increase, the beat was driven by stronger-than-anticipated fees and non-core income. FY Adjusted RoTE (excluding excess capital) stood at 14.0%, in line with guidance. NPEs decreased to €1.5bn (from €1.7 billion in Q3), with improved coverage at 53% and an NPE ratio of 3.8%. The fully loaded CET1 ratio was robust at 16.3%, factoring in a 43% payout accrual, with a proposal to allocate 75% (€211mn) for a share buyback. Total shareholder remuneration is approximately €0.12 per share, surpassing our estimate of €0.10 and consensus expectations. Looking ahead, the new business plan targets a reported ROTE of c11% in 2025e and c12% in 2027e, with a projected uplift of c60bps post-2026e from the Astro Bank transaction. Excluding Astro Bank, the new BP targets are slightly above the street’s estimate.
Eurobank // Eurobank reported a robust adjusted net profit of €340mn, slightly exceeding consensus estimates of €331mn. This outperformance was driven by stronger-than-expected fees, supported by solid loan growth of €1.8bn in Q4. Eurobank also announced its 2025-2027 business plan, envisaging strong loan growth of approximately 8% per annum, fee growth of 8% p.a., and a disciplined OpEx increase of less than 5% p.a., alongside a contraction of CoR to 50bps by 2027e, leading to a 15% ROTE during this period, which is around 3% above consensus estimates.
National Bank // National Bank will report Q4 2024 earnings today, before market opening. We expect adjusted net profit to ease to €327mn from €355mn in Q3, primarily due to slightly lower NII and seasonally higher OpEx. This corresponds to an adjusted RoTE (post-AT1) of 17.0% (Core RoTE at c16%) for Q4 and 18.9% (Core RoTE of 17.4%) for FY, comfortably exceeding the FY guidance of >16% Core RoTE. A conference call is scheduled for the same day at 8:30 UK time. Dial-in numbers: GR: +30 213 009 6000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, and USA: +1 516 447 5632.
HelleniQ Energy // Underlying FY/Q4’24 results came in slightly below our estimates, though headline numbers were inflated by a €102mn positive one-off insurance receipt. The Q4’24 realized refining margin settled at $11.8/bbl, with adjusted EBITDA for the quarter falling 37% yoy to €171mn (-6% vs. our estimate). On a full-year basis, the realized refining margin settled at $13.3/bbl, leading to an FY’24 adjusted EBITDA of €924mn. Reported Q4’24 net income stood at €48mn (FY’24: €60mn), with management proposing a final dividend of €0.55/share.
IDEAL Holdings // IDEAL reported solid FY’24 pro-forma results, with revenue at €380.3m (+23% yoy) and adj. EBITDAaL at €39.9m (+17% yoy). Growth was driven primarily by organic acceleration in IT, thanks to the ramp-up in project execution throughout the year, while performance in retail was supported by improved mix and expanded store capacity. Consolidated PBT came in at €23.9m (+11% yoy) as the strong growth at EBITDAaL level was eroded somewhat by c€4-5m in one-offs related to corporate engagements, as we had expected.
Premia properties // Premia delivered strong FY’24 results, with total revenue rising 18% yoy to €22.4mn and adjusted EBITDA up 17% to €14.1mn, fueled by inflation-linked rent adjustments and new property additions. Net profit surged to €39.9mn (vs. €7.2mn in FY’23), significantly exceeding our €25.2mn estimate, primarily driven by €23mn in revaluation gains (vs. €2.3mn in FY’23) and €11.7m gains from participations in JVs (mainly Project Skyline on our understanding). GAV expanded to c€498mn, a substantial increase from c€307mn in December 2023, while NAV rose to €197mn (€2.07/share) from €166mn in 9M’24 and vs €147m in Dec 2023 (€1.71/share). The stock is trading at a 39% discount to 2024 NAV.
Noval Property // Noval delivered healthy FY’24 results, with total revenue rising 14% yoy to €33.4mn and adjusted EBITDA up 16% to €20.6mn, fueled by inflation-linked rent adjustments and new property additions. Net profit decreased to €47.3mn (vs. €64.6mn in FY’23), primarily driven by lower revaluation gains (€24.5m for 2024 vs. €47.6mn in FY’23). GAV expanded to c€648.3mn, increasing by 13% from c€571mn in December 2023, while NAV rose to €519mn (€4.11/share) vs €427.4m in Dec 2023 (€3.98/share), with the stock now trading at c39% discount to 2024 NAV. The BoD has approved a dividend distribution of 0.043€/share (1.7% yield).
Alpha Bank // Alpha Services and Holdings S.A. announced the acquisition of AstroBank, for €205mn boosting its market share in Cyprus to c10% of total assets and solidifying its position as the third-largest bank in the country. The acquisition is expected to be c.5% accretive to the EPS whilst adding c60bps to the ROTE post cost and funding synergies.
Banks // According to Bank of Greece data, private sector deposits in January increased by €4.8bn m/m, reaching €198.8bn (+4.8% y/y), following an inflow of €5.6bn in December. Furthermore, there was a negative flow of credit to the private sector in January, with monthly outflows of €1.67bn following €3.0bn inflows in December.
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