*PANTELAKIS SECURITIES* (https://www.pantelakis.gr/)
* Private-sector deposits drop €5.2bn for the month in January, partly reversing a €6.4bn December jump; share of time deposits unchanged at 26.4% of total
* Private-sector loan balances down €2.7bn m-o-m in January (partly reversing a €3.9bn December jump), credit expansion slows to +3.0% yoy
* Cenergy (CENER GA) wins new steel pipes contract for AkerBP’s North Sea offshore oil/gas project
* Ideal (INTEK GA) FY23 proforma net income surged 73% y-o-y to €26.7m, propelled by the first-time Attica Dept Stores €12.1m consolidation
Facts: According to BoG, total credit to the economy (incl. the general government) came in at EUR 190.7bn in January 2024 (+1.9% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 4,473m), on the back of negative monthly net flow of the private sector by EUR 2,734m and the General Government by EUR 1,739m. Loans to the private sector increased by 3.0% y-o-y to EUR 115.6bn.
Comment: Net credit expansion turned negative in January. In more detail, business loans reached EUR 73.9bn (+6.0% y-o-y, negative monthly flow by EUR 2,506m). Loans to sole proprietors stood at EUR 4.5bn (-1.1% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 79m). Moreover, household lending was shaped at EUR 37.2bn (-1.9% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 150m). Housing loans came in at EUR 28.2bn (-3.5% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow of EUR 145m). Consumer loans reached EUR 8.7bn (+3.8% y-o-y, zero net flow). Corporate loans accounted for 64% of private sector loans, household loans for 32% and other loans for the remaining 4%.
Facts: BoG announced that system deposits came in at EUR 198.0bn (+2.7% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 3,702m) in January 2024. General Government deposits reached EUR ca8.4bn (+2.9% y-o-y, positive monthly net flow by EUR 1,536m) and private sector deposits amounted to EUR 189.7bn (+2.7% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 5,238m). Corporate deposits came in at EUR 45.0bn (+1.6% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 3,167m) and household deposits at EUR 144.7bn (+3.1% y-o-y, negative monthly net flow by EUR 2,070m). Household deposits accounted for 76% of private sector deposits and corporate for the remaining 24%.
Comment: The monthly drop in private sector deposits in January is attributed primarily to corporate deposits. Time deposits posted a positive monthly net flow by EUR 307.5m and accounted for 19.5% in January vs. 18.8% in December 2023. Liquidity remains ample, with the LDR at 61.0% vs. 60.8% in December 2023 and the commercial surplus narrowed to EUR 74.0bn from 76.4bn in December.
Company Headlines
HELLENiQ ENERGY || BUY | Target Price EUR: 10.70 | CP: EUR 8.24
4Q/FY23e Results Preview
HELLENiQ ENERGY is scheduled to report its 4Q23 on February 29th, after the close of the market. Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 258m (-45% YoY on tough comparables) and “adjusted” net profits of EUR 133m from EUR 261m in 4Q22. Turning to divisional performance, we expect HE, also benefited by the uninterrupted operation of the refineries, to have capitalized on the healthy refining margins through the quarter, driving the segmental EBITDA adj. at EUR 218m (vs. EUR 440m a year ago), while marketing contribution is expected weak at EUR 19m, driven by the mild weather conditions and the cap on margins in Greece. With regards to Petchems, we expect the weak environment during the quarter to weigh on segmental profitability, with the EBITDA contribution seen at EUR 12m, vs. EUR 26m last year. Finally, we estimate RES EBITDA of EUR 20m from the 356MW installed capacity to more than offset the EUR 10m loss towards the E&P activity. It is noted that our estimates stand at the upper end of the consensus estimates.
Piraeus Financial Holdings to apply for dividend distribution-Press
Reportedly (euro2day), Piraeus Financial Holdings published yesterday the annual financial statements of 2023 and therefore will submit a request to SSM for the approval of a dividend distribution of 10% of net profit. Recall that Piraeus generated a net profit of EUR 788.1m in 2023 and therefore we estimate a dividend of EUR 0.063 per share, implying a gross div. yield of 1.6%. Piraeus is one of our top picks in the sector with a TP of EUR 5.00/share.
CENERGY’s CPW is awarded a 27km steel pipes contract
Cenergy Holdings announced that Corinth Pipeworks, its steel pipes segment, was awarded a contract from Technip FMC for 27 km of High Frequency Welded steel pipes for the Utsira High Project development project in the North Sea.
Intralot Common Bond Loan to commence trading today on ATHEX
The trading of 130,000 bonds on the fixed income segment of the regulated market of ATHEX commences today. The ticker symbol of the Bond is «ΙΝΛΟΤΟ1» in Greek and «INLOTB1» in latin font. The commencement trading price is EUR 1,000 per Bond, namely 100% of the nominal value. The net proceeds of the issue amounted to EUR 124.5m and will be used for the repayment of part of the existing bond of EUR 229.6m due September 2024, issued by the subsidiary Intralot Capital Luxembourg SA.
Entersoft denied press reports on acquisition
Entersoft announced that shareholders have informed the company that they have not entered into any agreement with anyone for the disposal of their shares.
QUEST confirms interest for ACS
QUEST, in an official response to the press reports, confirmed yesterday that it has recently received interest and proposals regarding ACS from international potential investors, adding that it has not entered into any binding agreement for the participation of a new investor in the share capital of ACS.
Marginal losses for Athens yesterday (-0.18%) on very light volumes (ADTV at EUR 87m). Performance for banks was mixed with Eurobank gaining 1.7% and NBG dropping by 0.64%. From the non-financials, another good day for OPAP (+2.1%) and PPA (+4.3%).
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
BANKS
Private sector credit growth in January decelerated to 3.1% yoy (vs. 3.6% yoy in Dec) with business lending growing by 6.0% yoy (Dec at 6.9% yoy) and retail credit remaining in negative territory (-1.9%). On the deposit front, balances grew by 2.7% yoy in January but declined on a mom basis by EUR 5.2bn (after the December spike).
We think January weakness is seasonal and expect further acceleration in corporate credit over the coming months.
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCH CY, OW>
We retain our Overweight rating and EUR 5.0/share PT on Bank of Cyprus following the announcement of the business plan targets last week. On a sustainable basis (assuming a 200bps decline in ECB rates) the stock trades at an appealing c.5x P/E with a P/TBV of <0.7x and a ROTE in the 12% range. We think that Bank of Cyprus will soon turn from the ultimate rate play to a strong dividend play in the banking space. We anticipate yields of 9-10% p.a. in our forecast period.
CENERGY <CENER GA, OW>
Cenergy Holdings announced that its steel pipes segment, was awarded a contract from Technip FMC for 27 km of High Frequency Welded (HFW) steel pipes for the Utsira High Project development project in the North Sea.
The company is reporting FY23 numbers next week and we expect a strong fourth quarter with a further improvement in backlog.
Market Comment // In another muted session yesterday the ASE Index finished 0.18% lower, at 1,411.98 points, in contrast with the mild gains registered by most European bourses. Trade activity remained tepid at €86m, as investors brace themselves for the upcoming placement of Piraeus Bank shares held by the HFSF. Sarantis (-3.79%), Lamda (-2.36%), Intralot (-2.35%), Trade Estates (-1.7%) and Cenergy (-1.61%) led laggards, followed by CCH, Motor Oil and Aegean Airlines (on >1% losses). On the other hand, Quest (+4.6%) and OPAP (+2.11%) outshone gainers, followed by Eurobank and Austriacard (on >1% gains). The market looks headed for consolidation today, as investors await key macroeconomic data announcements which will shape expectations for the pace of interest rate cuts.
HelleniQ Energy // HelleniQ Energy is scheduled to release FY’2023 results tomorrow after market close. We anticipate FY’23 adj. EBITDA to reach €1.2bn (-24% yoy) on the back of persistently strong refining margins throughout the year, estimating the avg refining margin to settle at $16.7/bbl. We expect FY’23 net profit of €546mn (-39% yoy).
IDEAL Holdings // IDEAL is to release FY’23 results today pre-market opening; we estimate pro forma adj. EBITDAaL at €55.1m (+18% vs. FY’22) and pro forma revenue at €394.9m (+9% yoy) underpinned by solid growth in Specialty Retail and IT.
Banks // According to Bank of Greece data, private sector deposits in January decreased by €5.2bn m/m, reaching €189.7bn (+2.7% y/y), following an inflow of €6.4bn in December. Furthermore, there was reversal in the flow of credit to the private sector in January, with monthly outflows of €2.7bn, from the €3.9bn inflows observed in December.
Quest // In response to an inquiry from the Hellenic Capital Market Commission (HCMC), Quest indicated that it has received expressions of interest from investors regarding its courier services division, ACS. However, it clarified that no definitive agreement has been finalized at this stage.
Entersoft // Responding to an inquiry from the HCMC regarding claims on the press about a potential change in the company’s shareholder structure, Entersoft mgt suggested they have not received any relevant information/communication after consulting with major shareholders.
Cenergy Holdings // Corinth Pipeworks was awarded a contract by AkerBP for the production and supply of c27km of HFW submarine steel pipes for the Utsira High oil export project in the North Sea. The steel pipes will be manufactured entirely in CPW’s specialized offshore steel pipes plant in Thisvi.
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