Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (27.05.2024)

*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)
Υποχώρηση κατά 0,27% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός ∆είκτης του Χ.Α. στην τελευταία συνεδρίαση της προηγούµενης εβδοµάδος κλείνοντας στις 1477,69 µονάδες (στο -0,86% ο Γ.∆. & στο – 1,43% οι τράπεζες στην εβδοµάδα, στο +14,27% ο Γ.∆. & στο +22,87% οι τράπεζες στο έτος). Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα 87,1 εκ. ευρώ. Η διάθεση για κατοχύρωση κερδών ήταν πάλι κυρίαρχη στο σκηνικό µε αποτέλεσµα οι πωλητές να έχουν την υπεροπλία σε όλη τη συνεδρίαση και ο Γ.∆. να κινηθεί µόνο σε αρνητικό έδαφος µε διακύµανση 11 µόλις µονάδων (χαµηλό στο 1469, υψηλό στο 1481), ενώ την ίδια ώρα πλαγιοκαθοδικά κινούνται και οι δείκτες των ευρωπαϊκών αγορών. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαµορφώνονταν στο 3,603%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (- 0,15%) κατέγραψε υποχώρηση µε την Alpha (-0,67%) να υποαποδίδει αλλά την Πειραιώς (+0,85%) να διαφοροποιείται. Απώλειες ακόµη κατέγραψε η ΜΟΗ (-1,96%), ο Ελλάκτωρ (- 1,87%), ο ΟΛΠ (-1,02%), ο Τιτάν (-1,24%), η ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ (-0,36%), η Lamda (-0,44%) και η Aegean (-0,56%). Στον αντίποδα, κέρδη κατέγραψαν τα ΕΛΠΕ (+2,39%), ο ΟΠΑΠ (+0,87%), η Autohellas (+2,50%) και η Autohellas (+0,36%). Απολογιστικά, 37 µετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 61 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Η ΕΧΑΕ ανακοινώνει σήµερα τα µεγέθη της για το 1ο τρίµηνο, την Τρίτη ακολουθεί η Motor Oil, την Τετάρτη ο ΟΠΑΠ και η Cenergy και την Παρασκευή η Austrian Card. Την Τετάρτη ξεκινάει η δηµόσια εγγραφή της Noval Properties ενώ την Παρασκευή διενεργείται το rebalancing λόγω των αναδιαρθρώσεων των δεικτών MSCI και η Fitch ανακοινώνει την έκθεσή της για το ελληνικό αξιόχρεο. Αργία σήµερα για τις αγορές των ΗΠΑ και του Ηνωµένου Βασιλείου.
Mytilineos: Η ΑΧΙΑ αυξάνει την τιµή-στόχο στα 48,60 ευρώ. Περιθώριο ανόδου πάνω από 30% από τα τρέχοντα επίπεδα βλέπει ο οίκος, που επαναλαµβάνει τη σύσταση αγοράς. Πληροί τα κριτήρια για τον FTSE 100 η µετοχή, τονίζει.
Με σύσταση buy και τιµή-στόχο στα 1,48 ευρώ ξεκινά κάλυψη για τη µετοχή της Premia Properties η Eurobank Equties, εκτιµώντας το περιθώριο ανόδου στο 24,6% από τα τρέχοντα επίπεδα.
Aegean: Ο κύκλος εργασιών το πρώτο τρίµηνο ανήλθε σε €268,8 εκατ., αυξηµένος κατά 17% σε σχέση µε το πρώτο τρίµηνο του 2023. Πέτυχε αύξηση των κερδών ΕΒΙΤDA, ήτοι κέρδη €33,2 εκατ. από κέρδη €19,3 εκατ. την αντίστοιχη περίοδο του 2023. Οι ζηµίες µετά από φόρους διαµορφώθηκαν σε €21,0 εκατ. από ζηµίες €14,4 εκατ. το πρώτο τρίµηνο του 2023, λόγω της αρνητικής µεταβολής στην ισοτιµία του δολαρίου από την αρχή του έτους, που επηρεάζει την αποτίµηση των µελλοντικών ροών των µισθώσεων αεροσκαφών. Μετέφερε 2,9 εκατ. επιβάτες (το 1,7 εκ. εξωτερικού), 11% περισσότερους σε σχέση µε το πρώτο τρίµηνο του 2023.
ΕΛΣΤΑΤ: Αύξηση 5,6% στις τιµές υλικών κατασκευής κτηρίων τον Απρίλιο.
Την Τετάρτη 29 Μαΐου 2024 θα διενεργηθεί ∆ηµοπρασία Εντόκων Γραµµατίων διάρκειας 26 εβδοµάδων του Ελληνικού ∆ηµοσίου, σε άυλη µορφή, ποσού 500 εκατοµµυρίων ευρώ, λήξεως 29 Νοεµβρίου 2024.
 
*PANTELAKIS SECURITIES* (https://www.pantelakis.gr/)

* Piraeus Bank (TPEIR GA) calls AGM for 28 June to greenlight €79m (€0.063/sh) 2023 dividend, subject to SSM approval

* Mytilineos (MYTIL GA): investability weight in FTSE indices to rise as of 28 May, after recent 5% stake placement from majority shareholder places

* PPC (PPC GA) to spin-off wholesale telco business to fully-owned subsidiary FiberGrid

* ATHEX (EXAE GA) Q1 net profit seen up 25% y-o-y to €4.2m, courtesy of solid trading activity, averaging €148m/day (+31% y-o-y)

* Total stake of Titan’s (TITC GA) major shareholders was reduced by 0.34%

* Fourlis (FOYRK GA): Tessy Latsou appointed as new Group CFO

*Optima bank Research (https://www.optimabank.gr)

ATHEX headed marginally south on Friday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.27% at 1,477.69 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.24%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.53%, Banks Index: -0.15%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 86.8m, down from Thursday’s EUR 98.0m. On a weekly basis, the General Index dropped by 0.86% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: -1.12%, FTSE Mid Cap: -1.39%, Banks index: -1.43%). We expect the market to try to move higher, following the international markets. Ahead this week: Hellenic Exchanges results today Motor Oil tomorrow, OPAP and Cenergy Wednesday, Noval Property IPO 29-31 May, Fitch Ratings sovereign debt review on Greece Friday after the market close.

Market Headlines

Mytilineos’ Investability weight increases

Following the recent private placement of c.5% shares by the major shareholder of MYTILINEOS, FTSE Russel announced that the investability weight of the company in the FTSE All-World Index, the FTSE MPF All-World Index, the FTSE Global Large Cap Index and the FTSE Emerging Index will increase from 73.96% to 79.17%, with effect from today, after the market close.

Company Headlines

Hellenic Exchanges || CP: EUR 5.16 | Rating: Buy | TP: EUR 6.40

1Q24 results preview | A strong quarter on higher trading activity

Optima View | Hellenic Exchanges is set to report 1Q24 results on Monday 27 May, post market close and management will host a CC on Tuesday 28 May at 16:00 Athens/14:00 London Time. We expect a strong quarter on the back of increased trading activity in the cash market and higher market capitalization versus 1Q23. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 6.40, as the stock is trading 17.3x EPS24e at a material 26% discount to its global peers and 10.2x EV/EBITDA24e also at a deep 30% discount.

Top line | We project revenues of 13.5m (+16% y-o-y) and trading revenues to account for 64% of top line. In more detail, we forecast trading fees to reach EUR 2.5m (+10% y-o-y) and post-trading revenues at EUR 6.2m (+14% y-o-y), as the  average DVT in the cash market increased, driven by the positive outlook of the Greek economy and the positive sentiment in international markets.

Trading activity | The average daily turnover (ADT) soared by 31% y-o-y to EUR 147.6m in 1Q24, driven also by higher valuations (average M.Cap: EUR 95.3bn; +33% y-o-y).  On the other hand, the average daily volume in the derivatives market remained weak (-20% y-o-y). On the corporate front, Autohellas and Intralot issued corporate bonds listed on ATHEX and Athens International Airport proceeded with an IPO.

Bottom line | We expect OpEx to reach EUR 6.4m (+8% y-o-y) primarily on higher personnel expenses (+14% y-o-y).  Thus, we forecast EBITDA to reach EUR 6.5m (+24% y-o-y) and EBITDA margin to widen further to 48.4% (+330bps). Below the EBITDA line, we have assumed: a) depreciation of EUR 1.0m, b) net financial income of EUR 0.1m and c) an effective tax rate of 23.5%. Hence, we assess net profit to surge by 30% y-o-y to EUR 4.3m and net margin to widen to 32.1% vs. 28.6% (+350bps).

2023 Dividend | Management has announced that it will propose to the AGM on 13 June the distribution of a gross dividend of EUR 0.24/share, implying a gross dividend yield of 4.7%. The stock will trade ex-dividend on 25 June.

MOH || BUY | CP: 28.00 | TP: EUR 36.70

1Q24e results preview | another strong quarter driven by the favorable refining environment

MOH is scheduled to release its 1Q24e results on Tuesday (28 May), after the close of the market, followed by a conference call the next day at 17:30 local time (15:30 UK time). Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 345m (-23% y-o-y on tough comparables) and adjusted” net income of EUR 199m from “adjusted” net profits of EUR 276m in 1Q23. Accounting for the expected inventory gains of EUR 25m versus losses of EUR 50m in 1Q23, we forecast IFRS EBITDA of EUR 370 (-7% y-o-y) and IFRS net profits of EUR 222m, down by 6% y-o-y. Finally, in respect to dividends, it is reminded that the company has already declared a final DPS of EUR 1.40 for FY23e (ex-date: 26/6, DY: 5.1%), raising total distributions for FY23e to EUR 1.80/share.

Piraeus Financial Holdings AGM on 28 June

The AGM of Piraeus Financial Holdings will take place on Friday 28 June at 17:30 Athens/15:30 London Time. Shareholders will approve among other issues of the agenda, the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.063/share (DY: 1.7%).

PPC spin-offs its wholesale telecom business

PPC released the draft agreement for the spin-off of its wholesale telecom business, namely “Fibergrid”, with an equity value of EUR 63.6m upon completion of the demerger. As a reminder, PPC’s telecom subsidiary “Fibergrid” subsidiary develops a fiber optic network in Greece, with 185.000 homes already connected while target to expand to 1m homes and generate EUR 100m EBITDA by 2030e.

Motodynamics AGM approved dividend of EUR 0.12/share

The AGM of the company approved the dividend distribution of EUR 0.12198 per share excluding the 490.699 own shares held by the company (DY: 4.06%). The stock will trade ex-dividend on Tuesday 28 May.

Motodynamics buyback renewal

The AGM of the company approved the renewal of its buyback for up to 10% of the share capital (1,500,000 shares) with a price range from EUR 0.36 to EUR 6.00 per share that will last until 23 May 2026. In other news, the company announced the distribution of up to 67,442 shares to executives of the company until 31 December 2024 as a bonus.

Autohellas new share buyback programme

The AGM of the company approved a new share buyback programme for up to 10% of the share capital (4,862,476 shares) with a maximum price of EUR 1.00 to EUR 20.00 per share that will last until 18 April 2026.

Trade Estates AGM on 14 June

The company will hold its AGM on 14 June to approve among other things the dividend distribution for the FY23. The AGM will also approve a new plan to grant up to 2.58% of the company’s share capital to its executives.

*Euroxx Χρηματιστηριακή (https://www.euroxx.gr)

The ASE Index ended the day flattish, down -0.2%, on a low EUR 86.5m turnover, while banks were also down -0.1%, with Piraeus Bank up 0.8%. Among top gainers, Helleniq Energy rose 2.4%, OPAP was up 0.8%, while Terna Energy and Sarantis ended the session flat. On red, Fourlis and Cenergy marked a -2.1% drop, followed by Motor Oil and Ellaktor down c.1.9, whereas Titan slipped -1.2%.

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS

HELLENIC BANK <HB CY>

Hellenic Bank reported on Friday 1Q24 net profits of EUR 93.3m vs. EUR 124.8m in 4Q23 and EUR 69.7m in the same period last year. NII was down 4% qoq at EUR 151m due to higher interest expenses for MREL securities. Non-interest income was down 34% qoq, mainly due to seasonality and lower trading income, with total opex at +11% yoy. Management also revised the medium-term targets, assuming a COR of c.50bps, a C/I ratio of c.45% (previously at <50%) and a ROTE of c.13% (previously at >10%). The targets on a c.13% ROTE imply, on our numbers, a net profitability on a sustainable basis (i.e. with an ECB rate closer to 2%) in the c.EUR 200m range (vs. a peak of EUR 346m in 2023).

The shares of Hellenic Bank currently trade at EUR 2.68/share and above the EUR 2.35/share agreed between Eurobank and key shareholders. On the current price, Hellenic Bank trades at c3x P/E on the 2023 net profits and c.5x on the medium term guidance with the P/TBV on 1Q24 is 0.72x. We remind that Eurobank currently owns 29.2% of Hellenic Bank and has agreed with PIMCO, Senvest and Wargaming to increase the stake to 55.5%. Following the final approval from regulators, Eurobank will proceed with a tender offer for the minorities.

AEGEAN AIRLINES <AEGN GA, OW>

Aegean Airlines reported 1Q24 revenues of EUR 268.8m, up 17% yoy and ahead of our forecast of EUR 260m. The growth is driven by strong passenger traffic (+11% yoy) with an increase in RPK by 13% yoy and a load factor of c.82%. At an EBITDA level, Aegean reported EUR 33.2m (+71% yoy) vs. our estimate of c.EUR 30m on the back of solid cost efficiency (total opex at +12% yoy) with fuel costs up 4% yoy). The company reported a net loss of EUR 21m, close to our estimate, due to the adverse USD movement since the start of the year which has impacted the valuation of future leases liabilities.

All in, a strong start for the year on a seasonally low importance quarter. We remain BUYers.

PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>

AGM to take place in June 28th. Among the items on the agenda is for a dividend distribution of EUR 79m or EUR 0.063 / share.

News is in line with guidance. 

ATHENS EXCHANGE GROUP <EXAE GA, EW>

Athens Exchange Group will report 1Q24 numbers today, after the market close. A conference call will take place tomorrow (Tuesday, May 28) at 15:00 CET. Dial ins: GR: +30 213 009 6000, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063, US: +1 516 447 5632

We expect net profits in 1Q24 of EUR 4.3m on EUR 13.8m in revenues (+18% yoy) and EBITDA of EUR 6.5m (+24% yoy). The results are driven by strong trading volumes in 1Q24 with the average ADTV at EUR 148m vs. 2023 averages of EUR 111m. The current YTD average stands at EUR 144m and trending above our forecast for 2024E (EUR 135m).

PPC GROUP <PPC GA, OW>

PPC to spin off the wholesale telcos business of PPC and to contribute to its wholly own subsidiaries ‘’PPC optikes epikinonies ‘’ and ‘’Fibergrid’’.

FOURLIS <FOYRK GA>

The company announced that amid organizational and management changes, Ms Tessy Latsou was appointed as the Group’s Finance Director, replacing Mr. George Alevizos, who will be leaving the company after 24years to pursue new professional challenges. In addition, the Controlling, Planning, Accounting & Consolidation, Tax and Treasury departments are now set to operate under the Finance Department.

 
*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.gr)

Market Comment // The Greek market traded in negative territory throughout Friday’s session with the main index finishing at 1,477.7 points, ticking 0.27% lower. On a weekly basis, the market recorded losses of -0.9% weighed down by a 1.4% decline for banks. Trading activity remained thin for yet another session on Friday, with turnover settling at €86.5mn, namely c40% lower than the 100-day avg. Among blue chips, Fourlis led laggards, shedding 2.2%, followed by Cenergy (-2.11%), Motor Oil (-1.96%) and Ellaktor (-1.87%), while Ideal Holdings, Titan Cement, AIA and Jumbo also finished on >1% losses. On the other hand, Autohellas surged 2.5%, followed by HelleniQ Energy (+2.39%), with EYDAP and OPAP also in the green. Today, EU futures point to a slightly negative opening as sentiment remains cautious ahead of the US inflation figures this week, with price moves likely to be exacerbated by the thin volumes given US and UK holidays.

ATHEX // Q1 2024 today after market close; We expect Q1 2024 sales (excluding CMC fee) to increase by 16% yoy to €13.5mn, mainly reflecting strong trading activity in the cash market (ADT up 31% yoy at €148mn), higher market capitalization (up 37% yoy at €98bn), and increased corporate actions. This increase is likely to more than offset the lower trading activity in derivatives (down 20.0% yoy) and changes in Athex’s pricing policy. Consequently, EBITDA is set to increase to €6.4mn from €5.3mn in Q1 2023, offsetting the inflated costs mainly in wages. At the bottom line, we expect net profit of €4.3mn, up 28% yoy, also benefiting from higher financial income.

Motor Oil // Scheduled to release its Q1’24 results tomorrow, post-market close. In a quarter with improved refining margins qoq, we expect strong results, albeit at lower levels yoy given the base effect. We project Q1’24 revenue to settle at €3.19bn (-4% yoy) and adjusted EBITDA at €331mn (-8% yoy). In terms of bottom line, we estimate adjusted net income at €186mn (-7% yoy).

Aegean Airlines // Aegean released a strong set of Q1’24 results on Friday, above our estimates. Revenues rose 17% yoy and coupled with operating leverage led to a +72% yoy surge in EBITDA (to €33m), c6% above our forecast. Cash generation was also robust, with c€33m inflow in Q1 despite the c€85m outflows for the payment of the warrants (in January 2024) and some €48m in investments. We see positive momentum in operating profitability and solid cash flow generation ahead, driven by strong tourism data.

Premia Properties // We add to our SME research program funded by the EBRD initiating coverage on Premia Properties, one of the largest real estate investment companies (REICs) in Greece featuring a €307m portfolio and annualized rental income of c€23m. The REIC enjoys quite a diversified portfolio with high occupancy and long-term leases which is set to increase 40% by 2026, thus driving c11% NAV CAGR by then. Our baseline valuation applies a 15% discount to adj. NAV yielding a PT of €1.48/share. We thus initiate coverage with a Buy.

FTSE // The quarterly review of FTSE Global Equity indices announced Friday, resulted in the inclusion of Optima Bank in the FTSE All-World Index and the FTSE Emerging Europe Mid Cap Index. Changes will become effective 24th June.

FTSE-Mytilineos // According to an announcement, following changes in Mytilineos, as a result of a secondary placing, Mytilineos’ investability weighting in the FTSE indices (FTSE All-World Index, FTSE Global Large Cap Index, the FTSE Emerging Index and the FTSE MPF All-World Index) will be increased to 79.165% from 73.956% previously effective from the start of trading on Tuesday 28th May.

Piraeus Bank // AGM on 28th June to approve, among others, a DPS from 2023 profits of €0.063 (1.7% yield).

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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.