Jefferies: προχωρά σε αύξηση στην τιμή-στόχο για την Τράπεζα Πειραιώς στα 6,25 ευρώ από 5,80 ευρώ, διατηρώντας τη σύσταση για αγορά (buy). Ανεβάζει την τιμή-στόχο για Πειραιώς η JP Morgan ο στόχος τιμής μας για τον Δεκέμβριο του 2026 αυξάνεται ελαφρά στα 6,30 ευρώ από 6,20 ευρώ που ήταν προηγουμένως.
ΕΛΣΤΑΤ: ο κύκλος εργασιών των επιχειρήσεων του κλάδου των Καταλυμάτων το έτος 2024 ανήλθε σε 11.005.484.313 ευρώ, σημειώνοντας αύξηση 9,2% σε σχέση με το έτος 2023. Το εντεκάμηνο Ιανουαρίου – Νοεμβρίου 2024, η Συνολική Οικοδομική Δραστηριότητα εμφανίζει, στο σύνολο της Χώρας, αύξηση κατά 14,9% στον αριθμό των οικοδομικών αδειών, αύξηση κατά 17,3% στην επιφάνεια και αύξηση κατά 11,1% στον όγκο, σε σχέση με το αντίστοιχο εντεκάμηνο του έτους 2023. Επιβράδυνση καταγράφεται το Νοέμβριο.
Βρεττού (Attica Bank): Αν γίνει placement, θα γίνει μετά το 9μηνο. Εγκρίθηκε η τοποθέτηση νέων στελεχών στο Δ.Σ. από τη Γ.Σ. Η λειτουργική συγχώνευση με την Παγκρήτια θα ολοκληρωθεί τον Οκτώβριο. Το καλοκαίρι θα ανακοινωθεί το νέο όνομα.
ΟΤΕ: στο +3,5% στα €3,6 δις. ο Κ.Ε. το 2024 χάρη στις ισχυρές επιδόσεις στην κινητή, την τηλεόραση και το ICT. Στο €1,35 δις. το προσαρμοσμένο EBIDTA, +6,8% στα €600,8 εκ. τα προσαρμοσμένα κέρδη. Κόπωση μεγεθών στο 4ο τρίμηνο (-2,7% ενοπ. έσοδα). Στα €522,5 εκ. οι προσαρμοσμένες ελεύθερες ταμιακές ροές (-3,9%). Η πληθυσμιακή κάλυψη του δικτύου 5G ξεπέρασε το 99%. Συνέχισε να εδραιώνει την ηγετική του θέση επενδύοντας σε κορυφαία δίκτυα. Στη σταθερή, το δίκτυο FTTH επεκτάθηκε περαιτέρω, φτάνοντας σε 1,7 εκ. σπίτια και επιχειρήσεις. Μέρισμα €0,7216/μετχ. από €0,71 πέρσι.
ATHEX headed north yesterday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.24% at 1,600.17 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.23%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.30%, Banks Index: +0.04%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 143.7m, down from Tuesday’s EUR 366.3m. We expect the market to follow the international markets today.
Macro Headlines
Total building activity increased in November
According to ELSTAT, total building activity (private-public), as this is measured by the number of building permits issued, increased by 6.4% y-o-y in November 2024. In surface and volume terms, building activity decreased by 5.7% and by 20.2% y-o-y respectively. In the December 2023- November 2024 period, Greek building activity grew by 13.5% y-o-y in terms of permits, while also increased by 14.7% y-o-y in terms of surface and by 8.6% y-o-y in terms of volume.
Market Headlines
ATHEX Indices composition changes
The Athens Stock Exchange announced that effective from 28 February, the shares of Terna Energy will be removed from the indices in which they participate due to low free float. More specifically:
- The shares of TERNA ENERGY will be removed from the composition of the ATHEX Composite Price Index and replaced by the shares of the company “AS COMPANY S.A.” with a free float weighting of 36% and a capping factor of 1.0.
- The shares of TERNA ENERGY will be removed from the composition of the FTSE/ATHEX Large Cap Index and replaced by the shares of the company “AKTOR GROUP OF COMPANIES” with a free float weighting of 26% and a capping factor of 1.0.
- The shares of AKTOR GROUP will be removed from the composition of the FTSE/ATHEX Mid Cap Index and replaced by the shares of the company “ALUMIL S.A.” with a free float weight of 21% and a capping factor of 1.0.
Company Headlines
Energy Regulator to approve a 7.2% WACC for PPC’s HEDNO for 2025-28e
According to Energypress.gr, the energy regulator will most probably approve a 7.2% WACC for PPC’s distribution operator, HEDNO over the new regulatory period 2025-28e, lower than our estimate of 7.9%and also what the company requests, which is an increase to 8.2% from 7.66% in 2021-24.
Fitch affirms ‘BB-‘ Rating on PPC
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Public Power Corporation Long-Term Issuer Default Rating and senior unsecured rating at ‘BB-‘, with a stable outlook. The affirmation reflects PPC’s gradual shift to a more balanced integrated model of generation and supply, increased low-cost renewables production, the highly flexible nature of its hydro and thermal capacity, expanding regulated distribution, and the unwinding of state receivables. It also factors in its expectation of consistently negative free cash flow, due to large capex and a still developing regulatory framework, with a commitment to the financial target of 3.0x-3.5x Net debt/adjusted EBITDA Finally, Fitch forecasts EBITDA growth to EUR 2.4bn by 2027 from EUR 1.8bn in 2024, driven by integrated margin expansion and, to a lesser extent, growth in regulated distribution driven by large investments.
OTE | BUY | CP: EUR 14.50 | TP: EUR 16.50
4Q24/FY24 Results Review | Romania is the key for re-rating
Optima View
We believe that the catalyst for 2025 will be the disposal of Telekom Romania Mobile that would allow the company to increase its FCF generation and consequently its remuneration to shareholders. Recall that management will propose to the AGM the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.7216/share, implying a gross div. yield of 4.9%. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 16.50/share.
CC Highlights
Management cited earlier the following:
- Negotiations with Digi and Vodafone Romania about the disposal of Telekom Romania Mobile are proceeding as planned and could be finalized at the end of 1H25.
- Management will adjust the remuneration policy if they manage to dispose TRM. They consider either to increase the proposed dividend payout or to distribute an extra dividend.
- Telekom Romania Mobile burned FCF of EUR 70.0m in 2024.
2025 Guidance
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
OTE Group anticipates generating approximately EUR 460.0m Free Cash Flow (FCF) in 2025, incorporating estimated cash flow requirements in TELEKOM ROMANIA MOBILE (TKRM) for the full year, in case of no disposal. The guidance is below our estimate of EUR 476.6m, which however does not incorporate any requirements for TRM.
CapEx
The Group projects CAPEX of EUR 610m- EUR 620m in 2025, focusing on the expansion of its Fiber to the Home (FTTH) infrastructure, in line with our estimate.
Adj. EBITDA (AL)
OTE expects EBITDA growth in Greece to reach almost 2%, fueled by solid performance across key services, including mobile, broadband, and TV alongside effective cost management in several areas, in line with our estimate.
4Q24/FY2024 results
- Cons. revenues came in at EUR 905.3 (-2.7% y-o-y) in 4Q24, 2% below our estimate of EUR 923.0m.
Group revenues for the year reached EUR 3.59bn (+3.5% y-o-y).
- Adj. EBITDA after leases came in at EUR 344.5m (+1% y-o-y) in 4Q24, on spot with our estimate of EUR 344.6m.
Adj. EBITDA AL for the year reached EUR ca1.35bn (+0.4% y-o-y).
- Net profit came in at EUR 64.5m (-52% y-o-y), 51% below our estimate of EUR 130.3m, burdened by an impairment loss of EUR 89.8m as a result of the impairment test performed for Telekom Romania Mobile.
Net profit for the year reached EUR 478.8m (-9.9% y-o-y).
- FCF AL came in at EUR 444.2m (-11.4%), above guidance of EUR 435.0m. CapEX stood at EUR 599.7m, in the low range of guidance (EUR 600.0m-EUR 610.0m).
- Net Debt increased by EUR 8.6m y-o-y to EUR 643.4m.
- Shareholders payout reached EUR 451.0m (98% payout of FCF25e of EUR 460.0m), o/w EUR 298.0m in cash dividend and EUR 153.0m in share buyback.
- Management will propose to the AGM the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.7216/share, in line with our estimate of EUR 0.72/share. Gross div. yield at 4.9%.
Eurobank Holdings | BUY | CP: 2.5060, TP: EUR 3.00
Preview 4Q/FY24 Results | A soft quarter, focus on new BP and distribution policy
Optima view | Eurobank Holdings is scheduled to report 4Q/FY2024 results today, post-market close and a conference call will follow at 18:00 Athens/16:00 London Time. Overall, we expect a soft quarter on the back of lower NII, non-core revenues, higher OpEx, one-off costs (school contribution) and lower share of associates, since Eurobank has consolidated Hellenic from 3Q24. Balance sheet dynamics are expected to be in line with system trends in Greece, (i.e. higher performing loans and deposits) and asset quality dynamics to remain positive. We believe that investors will focus on the new business plan targets and the distribution policy. The stock is trading 1.0x P/TBV25E, at 10% discount to European banks despite its higher RoaTBV generation (15.0% vs 13.4% of EU banks). We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 3.00/share, a 20% upside potential.
4Q24 results | We project net interest income to shape at EUR 668.1m (-4% q-o-q, +17% y-o-y) on lower base rates and fee income to accelerate to EUR 171.1m (+2% q-o-q, +22% y-o-y). Thus, we expect core income to stand at EUR 839.2m (-3% q-o-q, +18% y-o-y) and total revenues at EUR 841.4m (-6% q-o-q, +9% y-o-y). Moreover, we forecast OpEx to reach EUR 341.7m (+15% q-o-q, +49% y-o-y) and loan loss provisions to stand at EUR 90.4m (+6% q-o-q, 0% y-o-y). On top of that, we incorporate a one-off cost of EUR 25.0m for school contribution. All in all, we estimate reported net profit to reach EUR 247.0m (-40% q-o-q, +55% y-o-y) in 4Q24.
2024 results | We forecast reported net profit to reach EUR 1.38bn (+21% y-o-y) and remuneration to shareholders to increase to EUR 0.1880/share (50% payout) from EUR 0.093/share (30% payout) in 2023, implying a gross yield of 7.5%. In more detail, we forecast NII to soar by 15% y-o-y to EUR ca2.5bn, fee income to accelerate by 14% y-o-y to EUR 621.6m and non-recurring revenues to drop to EUR 73.7m vs. EUR 85.9m in 2023. Hence, we estimate that total revenues will grow by 14% y-o-y to EUR 3.19bn. On the cost side, we project OpEx to soar by 22% y-o-y to EUR ca1.1bn and loan loss provisions to reach EUR 319.3m (-7% y-o-y).
Alpha Services and Holdings | CP: EUR 1.8440 | TP: EUR 2.55
Preview 4Q/FY24 Results | The end of one-offs cycle, all eyes on BP
4Q24 results preview | Alpha Services & Holdings is set to release 4Q24/FY2024 results on Friday 28 February at 08:00 Athens/06:00 London Time and management will host a conference call on the same day at 12:00 Athens/10:00 London Time. We expect bottom line to be lower on a sequential basis, burdened by one-off costs of EUR 32.6m (VSS, school contribution) and a NPA loss of EUR 51.0m. We also expect net credit expansion and deposits to accelerate in the last quarter of the year, in line with system trends and asset quality dynamics to improve further.
2024 results | We project reported net profit to reach EUR 600.8m (-2% y-o-y) in 2024. In more detail, we forecast NII to shape at EUR 1,643m (-1% y-o-y), fee income at EUR 410.5m (+10% y-o-y) and non-recurring revenues at EUR 120.0m (+45% y-o-y). Hence, we estimate that total revenues will advance by 3% y-o-y to EUR 2,173m. On the cost side, we estimate OpEx to stand at EUR 846.9m (+4% y-o-y), LLPs at EUR 238.6m (-23% y-o-y), an NPA loss of EUR 177.6m and one-off costs (VSS, school contribution) of EUR 64.9m. We also expect the NPE ratio to improve further and to squeeze to 3.9% in 2024 vs. 6.4% in 2023. Finally, we forecast that remuneration to shareholders will accelerate to EUR 0.089/share vs. EUR 0.052/share in 2023, implying a gross yield of 4.8%. Recall that Alpha distributed EUR 122.0m in 2023, o/w EUR 61.0m in cash dividend (EUR 0.026/share) and the remaining EUR 61.0m in share buyback.
4Q24 results | We expect net interest income to reach EUR 403.5m (-2% q-o-q, -8% y-o-y) in 4Q24, broadly in line with consensus estimate of EUR 406.0m and fee income to shape at EUR 104.8m (-4% q-o-q, +5% y-o-y), slightly lower than consensus estimate of EUR 108.0m. Thus, we expect core income to stand at EUR 508.4m (-2% q-o-q, -6% y-o-y), non-core revenues of EUR 24.8m (-9% q-o-q, -17% y-o-y) and total revenues of EUR 533.1m (-2% q-o-q, -6% y-o-y), 2% lower than consensus. On the cost side, we forecast OpEx to reach EUR 217.8m (+3% q-o-q, +16% y-o-y) and loan loss provisions to accelerate to EUR 71.2m (+34% q-o-q, -23% y-o-y) as well as a loss of EUR 51.0m from NPA transactions, higher than consensus estimate of EUR 35.0m. All in all, we estimate net profit to shape at EUR 111.7m (-33% q-o-q, -7% y-o-y) in 4Q24, EUR 22m lower than consensus estimate of EUR 134.0m, due to higher LLPs and NPA loss.
Optima view | We anticipate investors to focus on the new business plan targets and in specific on the evolution of net credit expansion, NII, fee income, LLPs as well as on the remuneration policy. The stock is trading 0.61x P/TBV25e, at a material discount of 47% to European banks and a 32% discount to its Greek peers. Alpha is one of our top picks in the sector.
National Bank of Greece | BUY | CP: EUR 8.46 | TP: 10.92
Preview 4Q/FY24 Results | NBG to deliver FY target despite one-offs
4Q24 results preview | National Bank of Greece is scheduled to report 4Q/FY2024 results on Friday 28 February, before the opening of ATHEX and management will host a conference call on the same day at 10:30 Athens/08:30 London Time. We expect net profit to be softer q-o-q, burdened by one-off costs of EUR 120.0m (VSS, school contribution). On the positive side, we anticipate net credit expansion and deposits to accelerate in the last quarter of the year, in line with system trends.
2024 results | We estimate that reported net profit will shape at EUR 1.18bn (+7% y-o-y) in 2024 from EUR ca1.23bn previously on higher than expected one-off costs in 4Q24 and core PAT to reach EUR 1.28bn, broadly in line with management guidance of EUR ca1.3bn. In more detail, we forecast NII to stand at EUR 2,352m (+4% y-o-y), fee income at EUR 423.7m (+11% y-o-y) and non-recurring revenues at EUR 105.0m (+12% y-o-y). Hence, we estimate that total revenues will advance by 5% y-o-y to EUR 2,880m. Moreover, we forecast that OpEx will accelerate to EUR 883.7m (+6% y-o-y) and discontinued operations, minorities and other one-off costs (VSS, school contribution) will reach EUR 199.8m, whilst LLPs will narrow by 9% y-o-y to EUR 218.4m. We also anticipate remuneration to shareholders to accelerate to EUR 0.645/share vs. EUR 0.364/share in 2023, implying a gross yield of 7.5%, assuming a 50% payout (in line with mgt guidance) vs. 30% in 2023.
4Q24 results | We project net interest income to reach EUR 570.0m (-3% q-o-q, -9% y-o-y) in 4Q24e and fee income to shape at EUR 111.0m (+3% q-o-q, +2% y-o-y). Thus, we expect core income to stand at EUR 681.0m (-2% q-o-q, -7% y-o-y), non-core revenues at EUR 23.2m (+31% q-o-q, -23% y-o-y) and total revenues at EUR 704.2m (-1% q-o-q, -8% y-o-y). On the cost side, we forecast OpEx to reach EUR 245.2m (+13% q-o-q, +5% y-o-y), LLP and other provisions to advance to EUR 59.7m (+16% q-o-q, -10% y-o-y) and discontinued operations and one-offs to jump to EUR 120.0m in the quarter from EUR 39.4m in 3Q24. Thus, we estimate net profit to shape at EUR 195.4m (-38% q-o-q) in 4Q24.
Optima view | We anticipate investors to focus on the new business plan targets and in specific on the evolution of net credit expansion, NII, fee income, LLPs as well as on the remuneration policy. The stock is trading 0.97x P/TBV25e, at 15% discount to European banks, despite its higher RoaTBV generation (14.0% vs. 13.3% of EU banks).
HELLENiQ ENERGY | NEUTRAL | Target Price EUR: 8.30 | CP: EUR 7.705
4Q/FY24e preview | Soft quarter, driven by margin correction, in a Solid year; We expect Final DPS of EUR 0.40
HELLENiQ ENERGY is scheduled to report its 4Q24e results today, after the close of the market, with a conference call scheduled for the same day at 18.00 local time (Tel nos: Greek participants: +213 009 6000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632). Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 135m (-50% y-o-y) and “adjusted” net profits of EUR 27m from EUR 111m in 4Q23 (assuming depreciation expenses of EUR 84m, increased financial expenses of EUR 32m, and an effective tax rate at 22%). In FY24e terms, we expect Group EBITDA adj. of EUR 888m, down by 28% y-o-y (and EUR 758m accounting from EUR 130m loss from inventory) and Net Profits adj. of EUR 311m, while accounting for inventory loss and the solidarity tax of EUR 175m, Reported Net Profits are expected to shape at EUR 37m (from EUR 478m a year ago). Finally, we expect HE to declare a final DPS of EUR 0.40 (DY: 5.1%, on top of the recently distributed interim DPS of EUR 0.20).
Comment | We expect an improved q-o-q quarter for HELLENiQ ENERGY, driven by the more favorable refining environment. Short term catalysts for the stock are in our view the refining margins outlook, the final DPS, the developments regarding the Hydrocarbons exploration activity (potential FID for test drilling expected in the next few months) and the upcoming placement of the two major shareholders; that said and taking also into account the recent stock appreciation (+21% total return over the last 3 months), and the fact that HE is fairly valued (7.5x in P/E adj. terms for 2025e), we reiterate our EUR 8.30/share Target Price with a Neutral recommendation.
Greek equities finished just above the flatline on Wednesday (+0.2%) on mixed performance among sectors, with turnover amounting to EUR 144m. The banking index finished flat on the day, with Alpha Bank down 0.8% and Eurobank recording a modest 0.5% rise. Among market’s top gainers, AVAX posted 4.8% gains, closely followed by Sarantis up 4.5%, OPAP marked a 2.3% advance, Jumbo rose 0.6% and Metlen ended flattish at +0.4%. On red, PPC lost 2%, OTE recorded a 1.7% drop, GEK Terna and OTE were both down 1%, while Cenergy and Titan slipped c.0.8%
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
According to ELSTAT, total building activity, calculated based on the number of building permits, rose 6.4% yoy in November 2024. On a 12-month rolling basis, total building activity recorded a 13.5% yoy increase.
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCHGR GA, OW>
We have updated our model on Bank of Cyprus following the publication of FY24 results and strategy update. We have only fine-tuned our net profit forecasts for 2025E and 2026E but with an uplift in distribution policies as we now assume a pay-out ratio of 70%. We think the shares remain under-valued, trading at a 20-25% discount (in terms of P/E) to periphery peers despite the high capital ratios (CET1 ratio of >19% in Dec 2024) and strong total distributions (sustainable yields of >10% p.a. in dividends and / or buybacks).
EUROBANK <EUROB GA, OW>
Eurobank will post 4Q24 results and business plan targets today after the market close. We expect net profits of EUR 350m (consensus at EUR 328m), on EUR 671m NII, EUR 315m opex and EUR 90m provisions. On a yoy basis the results are not comparable as they include the full consolidation of Hellenic Bank (first time fully consolidated in 3Q24 vs. equity method previously)
The management will host a conference call today at 18:00 local time (17:00 CET). Dial ins: GR: +30 213 009 6000, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063, US: +1 516 447 5632.
NBG <ETE GA, OW>
NBG will release 4Q24 results and business plan targets tomorrow, before the market opens. We expect another very strong quarter with recurring net profits at EUR 303m (consensus at EUR 292m) despite the softer NII on a qoq basis (EUR 574m on our numbers, down 2.6% qoq). We expect the PPI at EUR 452m (consensus at EUR 457m), with opex at EUR 237m. We expect provisions at EUR 51m with consensus at EUR 56m. On a reported basis, we forecast net profits at EUR 183m (consensus at EUR 206m) with the one offs related to a VRS plan and the school renovation program.
The management will host a conference call tomorrow at 10:30 local time (9:30 CET). Dial ins: GR: +30 213 009 6000, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063, US: +1 516 447 5632.
ALPHA BANK <ALPHA GA, OW>
Alpha Bank is due to report 4Q24 numbers and business plan targets tomorrow, before the market opens (at 8:00am Greek time, 7:00am CET). We expect net profits (from continued operations) at EUR 191m (consensus at EUR 181m) on NII of EUR 410m (flattish qoq), opex of EUR 229m and provisions of EUR 57m.
The management will host a conference call also tomorrow at 12:00 Greek time (11:00 CET). Dial in numbers Greece: + 30 211 180 2000; UK (local & International): + 44 (0) 203 059 5872; US: + 1 516 447 5632.
HELLENIC TELECOM <HTO GA>
OTE reported its FY24 results yesterday broadly in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates. Revenues reached c.EUR 3.6bn for the period, rising 3.5% yoy, driven by a 4.5% yoy growth in revenues in Greece. A-EBITDA (AL) came in flat at EUR 1.3bn (+0.4% yoy), broken down to a 1.6% yoy increase in a-EBITDA (AL) in Greece vs a 93.5% yoy drop in Romania respectively. Moreover, EBIT was down 6.6% yoy to EUR 668m and net profit stood at EUR 479m, recording a 9.9% yoy decline. The proposed dividend stands at EUR 0.72/share, with management reiterating during the conference call that the dividend could be subject to further adjustments, if the disposal of Telekom Romania is completed within 2025. Management FY25 guidance calls for 2% yoy EBITDA growth in Greece and FCF of EUR 460m, with these figures not taking into consideration the disposal of Telekom Romania in 2025.
AKTOR GROUP <AKTR GA, OW>
Reportedly (Kathimerini), Aktor will be included in the FTSE Large Cap index, replacing Terna Energy.
Market Comment // The Greek market rebounded yesterday, trading in the green throughout the session and closing 0.26% higher at 1,600.17 points, with investors in a selective stock picking mood. Trading activity came down to more normal levels of €144m, but below the 100-d moving average at €160m, with banks representing >50% of the total value. Among gainers, Sarantis and Avax stood out, both rising >4%, followed by a >2% increase in CCH, OPAP and Alter Ego. On the other hand, PPC (-2.07%) was among leading laggards, trailed by losses >1% in OTE, OLTH, Motodynamiki, GEK Terna and Lamda. EU futures are set to open negatively today amid rising risk-off sentiment after President Trump’s message for tariffs on EU imports.
Eurobank // Eurobank will report its Q4 2024 earnings today after market close, followed by a conference call at 16:00 UK time. We note that Q4 results include the full consolidation of HB. According to Bloomberg, Net Interest Income (NII) and total revenues are estimated at €670mn (-4% qoq) and €869mn (-2% qoq), respectively, in line with sector-wide trends, while adjusted net profit is expected to settle at €341mn, down from €413mn due to lower NII and non-core income. A conference call is scheduled for the same day at 16:00 UK time. Dial-in numbers: GR: +30 213 009 6000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, and USA: +1 516 447 5632.
OTE // Results released yesterday were rather unexciting, with FY24 EBITDAaL settling a tad below consensus at €1,347m (+0.4% yoy, with Q4 EBITDAaL +1% yoy). Net profit came in at €479mm, -10% yoy and materially below consensus, affected by another round of impairments. Mgt guided for €460m FCF in 2025, some €20-30m below the estimate of most market participants. As a result, the proposed shareholder remuneration is essentially flat yoy at c€450m (c8% yield), which was rather disappointing. Mgt sought to sweeten the cash remuneration issue, reminding investors there will be a top-up in case of a disposal of Romania in 2025.
HelleniQ Energy // HelleniQ Energy is set to release its Q4/FY’24 results today after market close. With refining margins rebounding from the Q3 trough, we expect the company to end the year on a strong note, though yoy comparisons will reflect a notable decline due 2023’s record-high results. We project Q4’24 revenue at €2.72bn (-18% yoy) and adjusted EBITDA at €181mn (-33% yoy), bringing FY’24 adjusted EBITDA to €934mn (-24% yoy). Accounting for quarterly inventory losses of €39mn (vs. €121mn in Q4’23), we expect Q4’24 net profit at €37mn, shaping our FY’24 net profit estimate at €50mn.
Alpha Bank // Alpha Bank will report Q4 2024 earnings tomorrow, before market opening. We expect Alpha Bank’s Q4 adjusted net profit to decline to €188mn (vs cons of €184mn) from €229mn in Q3, driven by lower NII and higher loan impairments. This corresponds to an adjusted RoTE (post-AT1) of 10.2% (11.7% post-excess capital) for Q4 and 12.1% (13.8% post-excess capital) for the full year. A conference call is scheduled for the same day at 10:00 UK time. Dial-in numbers: GR: +30 211 180 2000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, and USA: +1 516 447 5632
National Bank // National Bank will report Q4 2024 earnings tomorrow, before market opening. We expect adjusted net profit to ease to €327mn from €355mn in Q3, primarily due to slightly lower NII and seasonally higher OpEx. This corresponds to an adjusted RoTE (post-AT1) of 17.0% (Core RoTE at c16%) for Q4 and 18.9% (Core RoTE of 17.4%) for FY, comfortably exceeding the FY guidance of >16% Core RoTE. A conference call is scheduled for the same day at 8:30 UK time. Dial-in numbers: GR: +30 213 009 6000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, and USA: +1 516 447 5632.
IDEAL Holdings // IDEAL is due to release its FY’24 results today, before market open. We expect the solid performance across divisions from the 9-mth period to extend into Q4, with the group ultimately delivering pro-forma FY’24 revenue of €344m (+11% yoy) and adjusted EBITDAaL of €41m (+21% yoy). Growth on a consolidated basis should be driven by the rebasement of IT given the accelerated project execution throughout the year, with group figures also set to benefit from incrementally higher margins in Retail, thanks to improvements in brand mix and expanded store capacity. Our estimates place consolidated net profit at €22.3m (+51% yoy), with risk leaning to the downside as results may be impacted by <€5m in one-offs related to corporate engagements throughout 2024 (primarily the sale of the Industrial segment).
Energy // European Commission unveiled yesterday the Affordable Energy Action Plan, aiming to reduce energy costs for households and industries while accelerating the decarbonization of power markets. Key measures include recommending that member states lower electricity taxes, redesign power grid tariffs and aggregate EU demand for LNG to secure long-term contracts with reliable suppliers.
PPC // According press, the regulator (RAAEW) is set to determine HEDNO’s WACC for the 2025-2028 regulatory period within the next two weeks. The article suggests that HEDNO’s request for an 8.2% WACC is considered too aggressive, with RAAEW leaning toward a range of 7.0%-7.2%, aligning with other network operators.
Premia // Premia is set to release its FY’24 results tomorrow. We expect total revenue of €22.2mn (+17% yoy) and adj. EBITDA of €12.4mn (+17% yoy), supported by inflation-linked rent adjustments and new property additions. We estimate net profit to surge to €25.2mn (vs €7.2mn in FY’23), propelled by revaluation gains of €22.4mn on our estimates, compared to just €3.5mn in FY’23. GAV reached c€494mn (pre-announced), up from €307mn in December 2023, while we estimate NAV to end near €180.6mn (€1.93/share).
* Tα παραπάνω σχόλια μπορείτε να τα διαβάσετε πρώτοι στο viber του mikrometoxos.gr
ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
Ακολουθήστε το mikrometoxos.gr στο Google News
και μάθετε πρώτοι όλες τις ειδήσεις
