Barclays: Νέα, υψηλότερη τιμή-στόχο για τη μετοχή του ΟΤΕ, στα 20 από 18,5 ευρώ. Το περιθώριο ανόδου από τα τρέχοντα επίπεδα για τη μετοχή ξεπερνά το 31%.
Δεν πρόκειται να μπει έκτακτος φόρος στις τράπεζες, επισημαίνουν αρμόδιες κυβερνητικές πηγές, διαψεύδοντας πληροφορίες που κυκλοφόρησαν και ήθελαν την κυβέρνηση να σχεδιάζει έκτακτη φορολογική επιβάρυνση στα τραπεζικά κέρδη.
Πρωτογενές πλεόνασμα €13.528 εκ., έναντι στόχου για €12.930 εκ. καταγράφει ο προϋπολογισμός το πρώτο 10μηνο, σύμφωνα με τα οριστικά στοιχεία. Tο ύψος των καθαρών εσόδων ανήλθε σε €61.330 εκ. παρουσιάζοντας αύξηση κατά €251 εκ. Τα έσοδα από ΦΠΑ ανήλθαν σε €21.485 εκ. και είναι αυξημένα έναντι του στόχου κατά €29 εκ., τα έσοδα των ΕΦΚ ανήλθαν σε €6.046 εκ. και είναι αυξημένα έναντι του στόχου κατά €16 εκ. Τα έσοδα των φόρων εισοδήματος ανήλθαν σε €19.645 εκ. και είναι αυξημένα έναντι του στόχου κατά €38 εκ.
Πλαστικά Θράκης: Αυξημένες πωλήσεις 282,2 εκατ. ευρώ στο εννεάμηνο κατά 4,6%. Τα κέρδη μετά από φόρους του ομίλου ανήλθαν στα 11,95 εκατ. ευρώ, καταγράφοντας κάμψη 22,4% στο εννεάμηνο. Στα 36 εκατ. ευρώ με οριακή πτώση τα EBITDA (-2,7%). Πίεση για μειώσεις στις μέσες τιμές πώλησης των τεχνικών υφασμάτων, αύξηση των α’ υλών και του κόστους ενέργειας. Κατάφερε να αυξήσει τους πωληθέντες όγκους.
ATHEX headed north yesterday for a fourth session in a row and in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.33% at 1,406.20 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.04%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.72%, Banks Index: +0.08%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 206.8m, up from Friday’s EUR 85.6m. We expect ATHEX to consolidate at current levels.
Sector Headlines
Government sources refuted press reports about extra tax on systemic banks-Press
According to euro2day, government sources refuted press reports about a possible imposition of an extra tax on systemic banks’ profits.
Company Headlines
Eurobank increased its stake to 93.47% in Hellenic Bank in Cyprus
Eurobank announced that it has entered into share purchase agreements with Demetra Holdings Plc and Logicom Services Limited pursuant to which, Eurobank has agreed to acquire 24.66% holding (101,794,409 shares) in Hellenic Bank of ca. EUR 493m, corresponding to EUR 4.843/share, at 12.1% premium to Friday’s closing price or 1.09x P/TBV24e, based on our estimates. Moreover, the price agreed with Cyprus Union of Bank Employees (ETYK), the Cyprus Bank Employees Welfare Fund, the Cyprus Bank Employees Health Fund and the Financial Sector Provident Fund, as per the announcement of November 7, will also be adjusted to €4.843/share. Eurobank currently holds 55.962% in Hellenic Bank, therefore after the completion of the transaction and the ETYK transactions, its total holding in Hellenic Bank will amount to 93.47%. In accordance with the provisions of the Takeover Bids Law of 2007 in Cyprus, Eurobank will proceed, following the completion of the transaction, to a tender offer for all the outstanding shares of Hellenic Bank that it will not already hold at the time at the same price i.e. €4.843/share. The news is positive and expected. The full consolidation of Hellenic will allow Eurobank to increase profitability in the medium term. We’ll adjust our estimates accordingly. Eurobank is one of our top picks in the sector with TP of EUR 2.80/share.
HELLENiQ ENERGY submits an offer for ELPEDISON (press)
According to Capital.gr, HELLENiQ ENERGY submitted an official offer to EDISON for either the acquisition of the remainder or the sale of its 50% stake in their 50%/50% Joint Venture, ELPEDISON.
Hellenic Exchanges || CP: EUR 4.31 | TP: EUR 6.40
3Q24 results Review | A solid set of results
Optima View | Hellenic Exchanges delivered a solid set of results that came in line with our estimates. Management will host a CC today at 16:00 Athens/14:00 London Time. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 6.40, implying a 48% upside potential.
P&L KPIs | Revenues reached EUR 39.8m (+16% y-o-y), beating our call by 2%. Trading revenues rose by 3% y-o-y and post-trading revenues by 18% y-o-y, accounting for 61% of total revenues. Listing revenues also increased by 9% y-o-y, data services revenues by 12% y-o-y and IT and digital services by 28% y-o-y. EBITDA came in at EUR 18.4m (+29% y-o-y), on spot with our estimate, with the respective margin at 46.4% vs. 41.6% in 9M23. Net profit was shaped at EUR 13.4m (+37% y-o-y), in line with our estimate and net margin widened to 33.3% from 28.0% in 9M23.
Cash Flow | FCF rose by 27% y-o-y to EUR 12.2m on higher OpCF of EUR 15.5m (+40% y-o-y) due to higher EBITDA and despite the higher CapEx (+122% y-o-y).
Net Cash position | Net cash increased by EUR 1.7m y-t-d to EUR 65.1m or at EUR 1.08 per share, accounting for 25% of market cap.
Sunrise Mezz to trade ex-capital tomorrow
The company announced that the stock will trade ex-capital return (EUR: 0.0504/share, Yield: 16.7%) tomorrow and payment will commence on 03 December.
Phoenix Vega Mezz to trade ex-capital tomorrow
The company announced that the stock will trade ex-capital return (EUR: 0.0128/share, Yield: 14.3%) tomorrow and payment will commence on 03 December.
Alpha Services and Holdings Share Buyback
Alpha Services and Holdings announced that during the period 18.11.2024 – 22.11.2024 it purchased 2,340,333 own shares, with an average price of EUR 1.5330/share and a total cost of EUR 3,587,755.93. Following the above purchases, Alpha holds a total of 28,159,143 own shares, representing 1.20% of its total shares.
Autohellas increased its stake in Aegean Airlines
The company announced that Autohellas a company linked with the Chairman of the BoD of the company bought on 21-22 November 29,994 shares for a total consideration of EUR 283,299.
Europe Holdings shares admitted for trading in the main market
KLOUKINAS LAPAS announced that 70,362,390 common shares of the Company were admitted for trading in the main market of ATHEX, with the first trading day set for 2/12/2024. The new shares resulted from the share capital increase of the company following the merger by absorption of Intracom Properties with Europe Holdings.
Fourlis to announce 9M24 results today
Fourlis is scheduled to release its 3Q/9M24e results today, after the close of the market.
Greek equities finished flattish yesterday amid market’s mixed signals, while turnover stood at EUR 207m, due to MSCI rebalancing. Banks ended on the flatline, following recent losses in previous sessions, with Bank of Cyprus standing out rising 1.8%, followed by Piraeus +0.7%, whereas NBG and Alpha slipped 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. Among market’s top gainers, PPA was up 3.8%, Cenergy recorded 2.3% gains, Aegean rose 1.8% and GEK Terna finished 1.6% higher. On red, OPAP was down 1.5%, Lamda slipped 1.3%, while Metlen and OTE both marked a 0.5% decline.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
BANKS
According to press reports, government sources denied any intention of implementing a bank tax in Greece, similar to the recent tax in Spain.
EUROBANK <EUROB GA, OW>
Eurobank announced that it has entered into share purchase agreements with Demetra Holdings and Logicom Services Limited to acquire their 24.66% holding in Hellenic Bank at a price of EUR 4.843 per share (total of EUR 493m). The price is the same with the recent agreement with the Cyprus Union of Bank Employees. Eurobank currently holds 55.9% in Hellenic Bank and following completion of these transactions the total holding will reach 93.47%. Following completion of the transaction, Eurobank will proceed with a mandatory tender offer for the minorities at the same price (not earlier than 8 Feb 2025, which is 6-month prior to the previous tender offer). Following the tender offer, Eurobank will exercise squeeze out rights and delist Hellenic Bank from the Cyprus Stock Exchange.
ATHENS EXCHANGE GROUP <EXAE GA, EW>
Athens Exchange Group reported 3Q24 net profit of EUR 3.9m, above our forecast of EUR 3.5m. The revenues in 3Q24 came at EUR 13.0m, slightly weaker vs. the previous two quarters due to lower ADTV (EUR 105m in 3Q24 vs. EUR 140m in 2Q24). EBITDA came in at EUR 5.6m, above our EUR 5.1m forecast.
HELLENIQ ENERGY <ELPE GA, OW>
According to press reports, Helleniq Energy submitted a bid for Edison’s 50% stake in Elpedison on Friday.
GEK TERNA <GEKTERNA GA, OW>
GEK Terna announced that the release of its 9M24 results is scheduled for November 29th, before the market opens.
TERNA ENERGY <TENERGY GA, OW>
Terna Energy will publish its 9M24 trading update on November 29th, before the market opens.
Market Comment // Taking cues from tepid movements in EU exchanges, the ASE General Index closed higher at 1,414 points on Monday (+0.33%) extending its positive streak to 4 sessions. Trade activity jumped to €207m, boosted by MSCI rebalancing, markedly higher than the 100-day MA of €120m. Motodynamics (+3.88%) and PPA (+3.85%) set the pace for gainers, followed by Ellaktor, Real Consulting, Elvalhalcor, Cenergy and Optima Bank ( all on >2% gains). Aegean Airlines, Fourlis, GEK Terna and ADMIE Holding all ended on gains >1%. On the flipside, OPAP (-1.52%), Noval Properties (-1.52%) and Lamda Development (-1.38%) were the main standout laggards. The market looks headed for a lukewarm opening today, as EU futures have turned negative in light of the newly announced US tariffs against China, with investors assessing potential spillover effects.
Economy // Greece has secured approval from the ESM for the early repayment of €7.93bn in loans received from Eurozone states under the first bailout program. Additionally, the release of €15.69bn from the “cash buffer” was approved, on the condition that €5bn will be allocated annually toward debt reduction. For the early repayment of three installments in December, €5bn will come from the “cash buffer” and €2.9bn from the country’s cash reserves. (source: Kathimerini)
Eurobank // Eurobank has announced that it has entered into a SPA with Demetra Holdings and Logicom Services Limited to acquire a 24.66% stake (101,794,409 shares) in Hellenic Bank for a total consideration of approximately €493mn, equivalent to €4.843 per share. With Eurobank already holding a 55.962% stake in Hellenic Bank, the completion of this transaction—alongside the previously announced transaction with the Cyprus Union of Bank Employees (on November 7th), which will also be adjusted to €4.843 per share—will increase Eurobank’s total ownership in Hellenic Bank to 93.47%.
Athex // Athens Exchange delivered a strong yoy performance in Q3, with EBITDA increasing to €5.6mn from €4.8mn a year ago, surpassing our estimates and achieving a margin of 43% (up from 42% in Q3 2023). This performance was primarily driven by a 15% yoy rise in MCap (€100bn), which helped mitigate the negative impact of lower derivatives trading activity (-3.0% YoY at 36.3k contracts per day), the effects of the updated pricing policy introduced in Q1’24, and lower trading velocity, which kept ADT steady yoy at €100mn. Consequently, net profit grew 26% yoy to €3.9mn, further supported by higher financial income stemming from increased deposit interest rates.
Greek Banks // Relevant government sources have denied reports suggesting plans to impose an extraordinary tax on bank profits, emphasizing that there is no such intention from the government.
Helleniq Energy // As per press, HelleniQ Energy has submitted its initial bid to acquire Edison’s 50% stake in Elpedison, initiating the auction process. Edison has two weeks to counter with a bid at least 5% higher, and further rounds will follow until one party withdraws. The article suggests that the deal is likely to conclude within weeks, as both sides seem aligned on valuation ranges
Fourlis // Q3 and 9M results today post market close. We expect Fourlis to continue outperforming a tepid market, with OpCo revenue growth accelerating to c3% in Q3 from 2.2% in H1’24, quite resilient performance given the volume-dependent nature of growth. Coupled with healthy gross margins, we expect OpCo adj. EBIT €7.9m vs €7.6m in the same quarter last year, with the extent of operating leverage slightly diluted by IKEA pre-opening expenses and advertising campaigning. The 9M results place Fourlis on track to deliver on the FY24 guidance for OpCo EBIT near €26m (we are at €25.5m), with risk lying on the upside we think
Kri-Kri // Kri-Kri is scheduled to release its 9M’24 results today, after market close. We expect revenues to increase by c16% yoy, driven by sustained volume growth for yogurt in international markets. We anticipate EBIT of €37.9m, broadly flat compared to the previous year and net profit of €36.4m (+20.5% yoy). We expect Q3 results to validate that the recently updated FY’24 EBIT guidance of €39.2mn is easily attainable
Thrace Plastics // Thrace reported a decline in 9M’24 profitability lines driven by price/mix pressures, despite the sustained positive volume trends (+7.6% yoy). In specific, 9M’24 EBITDA settled at €36m recording a 2.7% yoy drop, below our €36.7m estimate, and net profit was down 23.5% yoy at €11.4m (vs EEe of €13.2m), with group revenues rising 4.6% yoy to €282m. As a result, implied Q3’24 EBITDA stood at €11.5m (-11% yoy) on +6.7% yoy revenue growth. Regarding the full year outlook Thrace mgt now guides for flattish FY’24 EBITDA, compared to positive growth anticipated previously. This lies in sync with our FY’24e forecast for -0.1% yoy EBITDA growth (c€44m).
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
