Απολογιστικά, 36 µετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 82 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν ενώ 39 παρέµειναν αµετάβλητες. Η έντονη ανοδική κίνηση του Γ.∆. στις προηγούµενες συνεδριάσεις δεν συνεχίστηκε έχοντας αρνητικό πρωταγωνιστή κυρίως τις τράπεζες. Ο Γεν. ∆είκτης πήρε απότοµη κλίση παραβιάζοντας τις πρώτες στηρίξεις των 1447 µον. (14,6%) και 1437 µον.(23,6%) Μετατρέπονται πλέον σε αντιστάσεις. Πλησιέστερη στήριξη στις 1427 µον. (33,3%) και ακολουθεί η ισχυρότερη των 1420-1422 µον.
Epsilon Net: Στα €12/µετοχή η ∆ηµόσια Πρόταση από GA, Εθνική Τράπεζα και Ι. Μίχο. ΕΥ∆ΑΠ: Αύξηση 2,4% του κύκλου εργασιών στα 351,6 εκατ. ευρώ το 2023 ενώ µείωσε και το λειτουργικό κόστος βελτιώνοντας όλους τους δείκτες αποτελεσµατικότητας. Παράλληλα ανακοίνωσε τη διανοµή µερίσµατος 0,10 ευρώ.
Interwood: Κατά 90,64% καλύφθηκε η ΑΜΚ που πραγµατοποιήθηκε µε καταβολή µετρητών και δικαίωµα προτίµησης υπέρ των παλαιών µετόχων, µε τιµή διάθεσης 0,27 ευρώ ανά µετοχή. Eλίν: Στα 26,1 εκατ. ευρώ τα EBITDA το 2023 – Στα 2,48 εκατ. ο κύκλος εργασιών.
∆υναµικά προχωρά η κατασκευή του νέου Θερµοηλεκτρικού Σταθµού συνδυασµένου κύκλου (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine-CCGT) ισχύος 840 MW της εταιρείας Ηλεκτροπαραγωγή Αλεξανδρούπολης Α.Ε., µία σύµπραξη των ενεργειακών εταίρων Όµιλος ∆ΕΗ (51%), ∆ΕΠΑ Εµπορίας (29%) και Damco Energy του Οµίλου Κοπελούζου (20%).
Mytilineos: Αύξηση 10% στα καθαρά κέρδη, στα €158 εκατ. το α’ τρίµηνο. Προαναγγελία για dual listing στο Λονδίνο. Η κίνηση σχεδιάζεται να γίνει τους επόµενους 12-18 µήνες, στο πλαίσιο των νέων στρατηγικών επιλογών που δηµιουργεί η έντονα διεθνοποιηµένη πορεία
και η αλµατώδης αύξηση των µεγεθών. Θα διατηρηθεί η παρουσία στο ελληνικό Χρηµατιστήριο.
HELLENiQ Energy: Την έναρξη λειτουργίας στην Κύπρο της EKO Energy, που θα δραστηριοποιείται στον τοµέα της προµήθειας πράσινης ηλεκτρικής ενέργειας από ανανεώσιµες πηγές, ανακοίνωσε η HELLENiQ ENERGY.
MIG: Στις 240.000 ευρώ τα EBITDA α΄τριµήνου – Στα 2,1 εκατ. ευρώ ο τζίρος.
Bank of Greece Financial Stability Review
According to the April Financial Stability Review,Greek banks improved their fundamentals in 2023, enhancing their profitability (EUR 3.8bn vs. EUR 3.4bn in 2022), capital adequacy (CET1 ratio at 15.5% vs. 14.5% in 2022), liquidity and asset quality (NPL ratio at 6.6% vs. 8.7% in 2022) and thus are in a better position than in the past to withstand potential shocks. However, persistently high inflation, higher key ECB interest rates and slower economic growth are testing the resilience of firms and households and could lead to the emergence of new NPLs. Finally, the biggest challenge is associated with the international environment and a further rise in geopolitical risks.
Company Headlines
Mytilineos || BUY | CP: EUR 37.72 | TP: EUR 49.00
1Q24 Trading Update | Strong quarter despite weak seasonality; results broadly in line with our estimates; Mytilineos targets to become the first Greek representative in the London FTSE 100index
Mytilineos released yesterday its 1Q24 results, with group turnover at EUR 1.143m (-16%% YoY on normalized energy prices, +3% vs. Optima), EBITDA of EUR 252m (+12% YoY, in line with Optima and consensus) and Net income of EUR 158m (+10% YoY, 5% above Optima). Regarding Leverage, Net Debt at March 2024-end stood at EUR 2.2bn, implying a Net Debt/EBITDA of 2.1x (1.6x adjusting for non-recourse debt).
Comment: Mytilineos reported a solid set of results, in a seasonally weak quarter (Renewables activity is back-loaded during each financial year) and despite the adverse pricing environment in the energy and Aluminium markets, which has hit the profitability of its international peers, demonstrating the resilient qualities of its synergistic and differentiated business model. To this end, as the strong performance in 1Q24 points to another record high profitability in 2024, Mytilineos is well on track to meet our FY24 EBITDA estimate of EUR 1.14bn, implying an attractive 6.6x 2024e EV/EBITDA multiple. Additionally, the company’s target to become the Greek representative in London’s FTSE 100 index, (Mytilineos is the first Greek Company ever to set such an ambitious target), in our view will provide further support to the stock. That said, we reiterate our Buy recommendation stock with the TP at EUR 49.0/share.
Below is an analysis per division for 1Q24:
- Energy: The unit registered drop in revenue (-16% y-o-y to EUR 1,143m) due to the normalization of energy prices, while EBITDA expanded by +23% YoY to EUR 184m), benefited from the expanded RES activity and to lesser extent by the increased electricity output, aided by the contribution of the new 826MW plant (Thermal generation volumes up by up by 120% y-o-y to 2TWh). With respect to Renewables, total capacity of the operational and mature global portfolio is now c.4.8 GW, while including projects in Early and Middle stages of development, with a capacity of c.5.7 GW, MYTILINEOS’ global portfolio now approaches 10 GW, at the end of 1Q24. Addtionally, Mytilineos’ retail electricity and Nat Gas supply business continues to grow, with Protergia’s market share in March standing at 17.45 (from 10.3% in 1Q23). Finally, with regards to M Power projects sub sector, the backlog of contracted projects in 1Q24-end amounted to EUR 1.4bn, while including projects at an advanced stage of contracting, total backlog amounts to EUR 1.7bn, of which 10% refer to Greek projects and 45% in the United Kingdom, 24% in Poland, an activity which is expected to record significant growth.
- Metals: Aluminium prices and premia continued to decline in 1Q24 (LME down to 2,241$/t, from 2,438$/t in 1Q23 and Premia also down to $400/t from $600/t in 1Q23). Due to the weaker pricing environment in the quarter, Mytilineos reported Metals sales down by 9% y-o-y to 205m, expanding however the EBITDA margin to 34.3% (from 32.7% in 1Q23), with EBITDA down by 5% y-o-y to EUR 70m, supported by its hedging policy,
- Construction/concessions): Regarding the construction activity, segmental EBITDA contribution in 1Q24 amounted to EUR 3m compared to EUR 5m in 1Q23, due to a transitional phase of completion and delivery of certain ongoing major projects and the commencement of new projects in an early stage. At the end of 1Q24, the backlog of infrastructure projects in progress exceeds EUR 600 million, while including projects that are in an advanced stage of contracting, it exceeds EUR 1bn. The prospects for the construction industry in Greece are particularly positive, especially for concession and PPP projects, in which the Infrastructure Sector aspires to play a leading role.
OPAP AGM approved dividend of EUR 0.60 per share
The AGM approved among others the dividend distribution of EUR 0.60/share which, after deducting the shares held by the company, will amount to EUR 0.61/share, (DY: 3.75%) and the capital return of EUR 0.25/share (ex-date 25/6). We remind that the stock is trading ex-dividend on Monday 29 April. Additionally, the CEO reportedly (Kathimerini) stated yesterday that OPAP’s performance has been boosted by the efficient implementation of the Fast Forward business strategy with retail and online activities in positive momentum thanks to digitalization and the upgrading of the customer experience. Also commented that Eurojackpot’s performance has been encouraging.
HELLENiQ ENERGY establishes green electricity supply in Cyprus (press)
According to Kathimerini, HELLENiQ ENERGY established an electricity supply company in Cyprus, named “EKO Energy”, which will provide green electricity to industrial and commercial consumers. As a reminder, HE already operates RES capacity of 41MW in Cyprus, and targets to install an additional 45MW.
PPC, DEPA and Kopelouzos to complete the new 840MW CCGT plant in Alexandroupoli in 24 months (press)
According to Businessdaily.gr, the PPC (51%)/DEPA commercial (29%/Kopelouzos (20%) JV which constructs the new 840MW CCGT in Alexandroupoli, will complete the construction of the project in 24 months, at a total cost of EUR 400m.
Athens Water–solid FY23 results, to distribute dividend of 0.10/share with an implied yield of 1.7%
Athens Water reported that FY23 revenues increased by 2.4% YoY to EUR 351.6m (mostly driven by its main activities, water supply and sewerage), EBITDA up by 56% y-o-y to EUR 60.8m, also aided by lower opex by 1.8% y-o-y and net profit at EUR 20.3m vs EUR 5m last year. In 2021, Net Operating Cash inflows for the group in 2021decreased to EUR 38.2m from EUR 93.2m in 2020, driven by the increase in the balance of receivables from customers. Management will propose gross dividend EUR 0.10/share with an implied yield of 1.7%.
Athens Water conference call highlights
During the conference call management stated that the new bill expected to be passed in the next days will allow the company to expand its operations. More specifically, the management stated that EYDAP will be able to carry out activities outside Attica and control companies in related sectors. In addition, management stated that the company will enter into renewable energy production to reduce costs and is exploring possible options, while looking at ways to recycle and reuse water for agricultural and other uses. Another new opportunity management is exploring is the maintenance and the cleaning of storm drains in Attica. Finally, the management stressed that investments in FY24 will reach EUR 81m, while in FY25 investments will reach up to EUR 204 m.
EPSILON NET Ginger Digital BidCo to submit mandatory tender offer
EPSILON NET announced that Ginger Digital BidCo SA in collaboration with General Atlantic Ginger BV, Mr. Ioanni Micho and National Bank of Greece will submit a mandatory tender offer in order to acquire a 37.08% stake and to delist the company from ATHEX. Recall that Mr. Ioannis Michos controls a 55.42% stake and National Bank of Greece a 7.50% stake respectively. The offer price was set at EUR 12.00 per share, at 18.8% premium to the closing price and values the company EUR 650.4m or 32.5x EPS23 and 21.9x EV/EBITDA23.
CENERGY AGM on 31st May
CENERGY will hold an AGM on 28st May, to approve among others the distribution of a EUR 0.08 DPS (ex-date: 25 June, DY: 1.1%).
Viohalco AGM set for 28 May
The company announced that it will hold its Annual General Meeting on Tuesday 28 May to approve among other the distribution of a EUR 0.12/share dividend (dividend yield: c. 2.2%).
Galaxy Cosmos 2023 results out today
The company is set to report 2023 results today.
Ilyda Financial Calendar
The company will publish its FY23 results on Monday 29 April, the AGM will take place on Friday 5 July and the stock will trade ex-dividend on Friday 19 July with the dividend payment set for Wednesday 24 July.
Marginal correction for the ASE Index yesterday (-0.9%) on a EUR 142m volume, while the banking sector followed suit marking a -1.1% drop, led by Piraeus down c.-2% and Eurobank (-1.3%). On non-financials Jumbo finished on the green up 0.5% with Alpha Bank hovering around the flatline, whereas among worst performers was PPA with -2.6% losses, Sarantis down -2.5% and Motor Oil -2.5%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MYTILINEOS <MYTIL GA, OW>
Mytilineos reported 1Q24 numbers, recording +10% yoy growth. On a separate note, as part of its strategic review, MYTIL announced that is considering a potential listing on an international exchange, including the London Stock Exchange, within the next 12-18 months.
Flashnote with detailed comment attached.
NBG <ETE GA, OW>
NBG in combination with General Atlantic and the Mr Ioannis Mihos will proceed in a public tender for the minorities of Epsilon Net (EPLSIL GA, current market cap at EUR 547m) at a price of EUR 12.0 per share (vs. EUR 10.1 at yesterday’s close). The current shareholding structure of Eplison Net is Mr Mihos (the founder) with 55.4%, NBG at 7.5% and the free float at 37.1%. If the public offer is successful the shareholding structure of Epsilon Net will be Mr Ioannis Mihos at 55.4%, General Atlantic at 29.6% and NBG at 15%.
EUROBANK <EUROB GA, OW>
Hellenic Bank in Cyprus announced that it has entered into exclusive negotiations for the acquisition of CNP Cyprus Insurance. CNP Cyprus is a leading insurance operator in Cyprus, offering life and general insurance products and services with c.330 employees, EUR 236m of gross premiums and market shares of c.24% and c.15% in life and general insurance, respectively. Upon completion, Hellenic Bank will have a leading position in Cyprus with market shares of c.30% and c.23% in life and general insurance respectively. The total consideration is expected to be EUR 182m, implying a P/BV of 1x and a capital impact of c.260bps for Hellenic Bank. The capital impact can be easily absorbed in views of the already very high capital ratios (pro-forma CET ratio of 22.8% and Total Capital Ratio of 28.4% as of Dec 2023).
We remind that Eurobank owns a stake of 29.2% in Hellenic Bank with agreements to increase its stake to 55.3% post regulatory approvals (which will then lead to a voluntary tender offer). Our view on the Hellenic Bank acquisition is very bullish and we think the news on further expansion into insurance will enhance the fee generating ability of the bank.
ATHENS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT <AIA GA, EW>
In the AGM yesterday the CEO of AIA revised upwards the passenger traffic forecasts for 2024E to 30m vs. 28.3m in the initial IATA forecasts and 29.3m in our estimates. We remind that AIA will issue a trading update on Monday before the market opens. The company has already pre-announced passenger traffic for 1Q24 (5.2m, an increase of 16.5% yoy). As a result, we expect a very strong quarter, ahead of our full year expectations (4.0% yoy growth in 2024E), albeit we do note that 1Q is traditionally the weakest quarter of the year due to seasonality (in 2023 it accounted for 16% of yearly traffic). There is no consensus or estimates for 1Q as this is the first quarterly reporting for AIA since the IPO. The management is not hosting a conference call for the trading update.
Strong passenger traffic news is positive and should imply an upside risk to our 2024E forecasts.
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCH LN, OW>
The bank announced the launch of a EUR 300m green senior preferred bond under its EMTN program. The notes have a maturity in May 2029 with an optional redemption date on May 2028 and a fixed coupon of 5% per annum. The issue was oversubscribed by 4x.
The transaction improved the MREL ratio to 28.36%, creating a comfortable buffer above the minimum requirements (25% of RWA).
ATHENS WATER <EYDAP GA>
The company announced its 1Q24 results, showing a 2.4% yoy increase in turnover reaching EUR 351m, while EBITDA rose 56% yoy to a total of EUR c.61m. In the meantime, net profit came in at EUR 20m, marking a 302% advance yoy, on the back of lower lower opex. EYDAP is planning an investment capex of EUR 2bn to be spent in the next 10-year horizon. In terms of balance sheet, the company reported a net cash position of EUR 0.32m. Moreover, the BoD proposed a dividend distribution of EUR 0.10/per share. With regards to the new regulatory framework, the Company is awaiting the issuance of the new Joint Ministerial Decision on water pricing rules. After the issuance of the JMD, the Company will propose to the Ministry of Environment and Energy, since RAEWW is not yet fully operational, the new tariff based on the methodology of the permitted income.
HELLENIQ ENERGY <ELPE GA>
According to press reports, the company, within the context of its “VISION 2025” presentation, announced the start of operations of its new investment in Cyprus, EKO Energy, focusing on RES, thus expanding its portfolio in the country. HELLENIQ’s goal, being the first vertically integrated energy supplier in Cyprus, is to become the primary provider for selective industrial organizations.
OPAP <OPAP GA>
AGM approved the distribution of final FY23 DPS EUR 0.60/share (ex-div. date April 29th, payment date May 9th) as well as a capital return of EUR 0.25/share (ex-rights date June 25th, payment date July 1st).
Market Comment // Trading in negative territory throughout Thursday’s session, the Greek market slipped further after midday, finishing near intra-day lows at 1.435.19 (-0.93%). Trading activity remained at elevated levels, albeit c19% lower vs Wednesday, with turnover settling at €142mn. Viohalco and Optima led laggards shedding >3%, closely followed by Piraeus Port Authority (-2.6%), Sarantis (-2.5%), Motor Oil (-2.5%), Elvalhalcor (-2.4%) and Ellaktor (-2.1%). Moreover, Piraeus Bank, OPAP, Mytilineos, Lamda, ADMIE, Eurobank and NBG all finished on >1% losses. On the contrary, Space Hellas rallied +4.5% followed by Profile (+2.1%), while Jumbo (+0.6%) and Alpha (+0.6%) also finished in the green. Today, EU futures point to a positive opening as stocks face an updraft from the strong tech results in the US.
Mytilineos // The Group formally announced it is considering a potential dual listing on an international exchange within the next 12-18 months, including LSE. Given the current valuation (€5.4bn market cap), Mytilineos would be on track for inclusion in the FTSE100, which would significantly enhance stock liquidity.
Epsilon Net // Epsilon Net (EN) confirmed yesterday that General Atlantic, NBG and Epsilon Net founder I. Mihos have jointly submitted a mandatory public offer for the acquisition of the remaining Epsilon Net shares not under their control. The joint bid proposes the acquisition of the remaining 37.08% of Epsilon Net shares at an offer price of €12 per share (last close at €10.1), corresponding to a trailing EV/EBITDA of >21x.
OPAP // AGM approved the final DPS related to FY23, which has settled at €0.61 (slightly edged up, to account for the treasury shares). The shares will trade ex-div on Monday 29th April, while the net amount (€0.58, 3.6% yield post 5% withholding tax) will be paid on 9th May.
Terna Energy // Scheduled to release its FY’23 results on Monday 29th April (after-market). We expect FY’23 revenue to reach €331mn (+11% yoy) and EBITDA to settle near €179mn (+9% yoy), on the back of increased installed capacity. In terms of bottom line, we expect adj. net income €81mn, +31% yoy. On a quarterly basis we estimate Q4’23e EBITDA at €55mn, +43% yoy. We expect management to propose a dividend of €0.38/share (2.1% yield).
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