Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (26.02.2025)

Υποχώρηση κατά 0,47% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός Δείκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1596,41 μονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαμορφώθηκε στα 367,6 εκ. ευρώ. Οι πωλητές ανέλαβαν από το ξεκίνημα την υπεροπλία και με οδηγό την Πειραιώς (σε συνέχεια του placement) και άλλους δεικτοβαρείς τίτλους, οδήγησαν το Γ.Δ. σε αρνητικό έδαφος με το ενδοσυνεδριακό χαμηλό να διαμορφώνεται στις 1594 μονάδες μόλις στις 11πμ περίπου. Οι αντίδραση των αγοραστών οδήγησε σε μείωση των απωλειών και σε αυξημένη μεταβλητότητα χωρίς όμως να πετύχουν τη μεταφορά του Γ.Δ. σε θετικό έδαφος, με αποτέλεσμα την οριστική καταγραφή απωλειών στις δημοπρασίες. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαμορφώνονταν στο 3,296% με τις ευρωπαϊκές αγορές να κινούνται με νευρικότητα. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (-0,19%) κατέγραψε απώλειες με την Πειραιώς (-3,97%) να υποαποδίδει αλλά τη Eurobank (+1,46%) να διαφοροποιείται. Απώλειες ακόμη κατέγραψε η Cenergy (-3,50%), η Βιοχάλκο (-1,91%), η ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ (-1,60%), η ΕΥΔΑΠ (-2,14%), η ΜΟΗ (-1,17%), το Jumbo (- 2,34%), ο ΟΠΑΠ (-1,48%), η Lamda (-1,76%), η Aegean (-1,35%) και το ΔΑΑ (-2%). Στον αντίποδα, κέρδη κατέγραψε ο Τιτάν (+1,47%), η ΕΕΕ (+0,90%), η Optima (+0,99%), η ΔΕΗ (+0,46%) και ο Ακτωρ (+1,51%) από τη μεσαία κεφαλαιοποίηση. Απολογιστικά, 34 μετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 73 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Ο ΟΤΕ ανακοινώνει το πρωί τα μεγέθη του για το 2024 και στις 12μμ η ΕΛΣΤΑΤ τα στοιχεία της οικοδομικής δραστηριότητας του 11μηνου. Στις ΗΠΑ η Nvidia ανακοινώνει τα μεγέθη της για το 4ο τρίμηνο του 2024. Στο Χ.Α. παραμένει η ισχυρή στήριξη των 1590 μονάδων για το Γ.Δ

ΔΕΗ: Στο 4,97% μειώθηκε το ποσοστό της Covalis Capital LLP.

BriQ: Την 31.12.2024 το χαρτοφυλάκιο της εταιρείας περιλάμβανε 57 ακίνητα συνολικής αξίας €285 εκ., η οποία διαμοιράζεται σε αποθήκες – logistics (31%), γραφεία (30%), καταστήματα και σουπερμάρκετ (26%), ξενοδοχεία (11%) και ακίνητα ειδικής χρήσης (2%).

Η Εταιρεία Ακινήτων Δημοσίου Α.Ε. (ΕΤΑΔ), θυγατρική του Υπερταμείου, προχώρησε επιτυχώς σε μια σημαντική επιχειρηματική συμφωνία, η οποία αφορά στην πώληση της συμμετοχής της στη Μαρίνα Ζέας Α.Ε. (25%) προς την πλειοψηφούσα μέτοχο D Marinas Hellas Μονοπρόσωπη Α.Ε.

Ευρώπη Ασφαλιστική: Στρατηγική συμφωνία με την Apeiron Insurance Project. Με την συγκεκριμένη στρατηγική συμφωνία η Apeiron θα επεκταθεί στις Ασφαλίσεις του Κλάδου Περιουσίας και Λοιπών Κλάδων.

Διοίκηση ΔΑΑ προχωρά στην επιτάχυνση των δύο φάσεων που προβλέπονται στο επενδυτικό πλάνο, με τον τρέχοντα σχεδιασμό να ενσωματώνει τις δύο φάσεις επέκτασης τοποθετώντας την ολοκλήρωσή τους το 2032 θα μπορεί να εξυπηρετήσει έως 40 εκατ. επιβάτες ετησίως. Τρία χρόνια νωρίτερα σε σχέση με τον αρχικό σχεδιασμό, λόγω της ισχυρής ανάπτυξης που καταγράφει η επιβατική κίνηση.

Φορολογικά έσοδα Ιανουαρίου: διαμορφώνονται στα €5,87 δισ., αυξημένα κατά €314 εκ. έναντι του στόχου. Τα έσοδα από ΦΠΑ ανήλθαν σε €2.706 εκ. και είναι αυξημένα έναντι του στόχου κατά €153 εκ. Τα έσοδα των ΕΦΚ ανήλθαν σε €542 εκ. Τα έσοδα των φόρων εισοδήματος ανήλθαν σε €2.014 εκ. και είναι αυξημένα κατά €72 εκ. Άνοδος 4,4% στις τιμές υλικών κατασκευής κατοικιών τον Ιανουάριο.

ATHEX headed south yesterday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.47% at 1,596.41 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.49%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.88%, Banks Index: -0.19%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 366.3m, up from Monday’s EUR 254.0m. We expect the market to follow the international markets today.

Company Headlines

Paulson & Co. decreased its stake to 14.0% in Piraeus Financial Services

Piraeus Financial Services announced that Paulson & Co. decreased its stake to 14.0% and holds 170.0m common shares, post the disposal of a 2.8% stake or 35.0m common shares through an accelerated bookbuild at EUR 4.58/share that took place yesterday. Paulson announced that he is committed to remaining a long-term shareholder and participating in Piraeus’ growth and revaluation. Piraeus remains one of our top picks in the sector and we reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 6.20/share.

OTE | BUY | Target Price EUR: 16.50 | CP: EUR 14.76

4Q/FY24e preview | A soft quarter due to Romania      

Optima view | OTE is set to release 4Q/FY2024 results on Wednesday 26 February, before the opening of the market and management will host a conference call on the same day at 13:00 Athens/ 11:00 London Time. We expect a soft quarter, due to the weak performance of Romanian operations. Nonetheless, we anticipate Q4 performance in Greece to improve further due to higher revenues from Pay TV and the FTTH coupon to stimulate demand. We expect investors to focus on 2025 guidance, remuneration policy as well as the evolution of negotiations with Digi Romania and Vodafone Romania about the disposal of Telekom Romania Mobile. OTE is trading 4.7x EV/EBITDA25e, at a material 29% discount vs. EU telcos.

4Q24 P & L | We forecast 4Q24 group revenues of EUR 923.0m (-0.8% y-o-y), adj. EBITDA after leases of EUR 344.6m (+1.0% y-o-y), and the respective margin to widen to 37.3% vs. 36.7% in 4Q23. We also expect net profit for the quarter to shape at EUR 130.3m (-3.1% y-o-y). On the cost side, we forecast OpEx to rise by 3.6% y-o-y and to reach EUR 537.9m, due to higher other op. expenses because of higher ICT revenues. We have also assumed: a) depreciation expenses of EUR 147.1m (-8.9% y-o-y) and b) net financial expenses of EUR 2.5m.

2024 P & L | We project 2024 group revenues of EUR 3.6bn (+4.0% y-o-y), adj. EBITDA AL of EUR ca1.35bn (+0.4% y-o-y) and net profit of EUR 544.6m (+2.4% y-o-y). We also anticipate CapEx to stand at the high range of guidance, i.e. EUR 610.0m and FCF at EUR 429.1m, in line with the guidance of EUR 435.0m. We estimate remuneration to remain flattish y-o-y at EUR 452.8m, of which EUR 298.8m (66% of remuneration) or EUR 0.72/share in cash dividend (DY: 4.9%) and the remaining 34% or EUR 153.9m in share buyback. Recall that the company distributed EUR 450.0m or 95% of FCF2024.

Greece | We expect Greece to remain the spearhead of growth and top line to advance by 5.0% y-o-y to EUR ca3.35bn, thanks to higher revenues from wholesale services (+5.5% y-o-y), mobile (+2.8% y-o-y) and other-ICT revenues (+20.0%), whilst we anticipate retail services to be flattish due to the common sports platform with Nova and the commencement of the FTTH coupon. On the cost side, we anticipate OpEx to rise by 7.1% y-o-y primarily due to higher other operating expenses. Hence, we estimate that adj. EBITDA (AL) will reach EUR 1.35bn (+1.5% y-o-y), pointing to EBITDA margin of 40.2% vs. 41.6% in 2023.

Romania | We anticipate top line to reach EUR 267.8m (-6.7% y-o-y), on lower mobile service revenues (-17.0% y-o-y) and adj. EBITDA (AL) to stand at just EUR 2.4m vs. EUR 17.0m in 2023, pointing to a profitability margin of 0.9% vs. 5.9% in 2023.

HELLENiQ ENERGY | NEUTRAL | Target Price EUR: 8.30 | CP: EUR 7.75

4Q/FY24e preview | Soft quarter, driven by margin correction, in a Solid year; We expect Final DPS of EUR 0.40

HELLENiQ ENERGY is scheduled to report its 4Q24e results tomorrow, after the close of the market, with a conference call scheduled for the same day at 18.00 local time (Tel nos: Greek participants: +213 009 6000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632).  Excluding inventory effect and one-offs, we expect “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 135m (-50% y-o-y) and “adjusted” net profits of EUR 27m from EUR 111m in 4Q23 (assuming depreciation expenses of EUR 84m, increased financial expenses of EUR 32m, and an effective tax rate at 22%). In FY24e terms, we expect Group EBITDA adj. of EUR 888m, down by 28% y-o-y (and EUR 758m accounting from EUR 130m loss from inventory) and Net Profits adj. of EUR 311m, while accounting for inventory loss and the solidarity tax of EUR 175m, Reported Net Profits are expected to shape at EUR 37m (from EUR 478m a year ago). Finally, we expect HE to declare a final DPS of EUR 0.40 (DY: 5.1%, on top of the recently distributed interim DPS of EUR 0.20).

Comment | We expect an improved q-o-q quarter for HELLENiQ ENERGY, driven by the more favorable refining environment. Short term catalysts for the stock are in our view the refining margins outlook, the final DPS, the developments regarding the Hydrocarbons exploration activity (potential FID for test drilling expected in the next few months) and the upcoming placement of the two major shareholders; that said and taking also into account the recent stock appreciation (+21% total return over the last 3 months), and the fact that HE is fairly valued (7.5x in P/E adj. terms for 2025e), we reiterate our EUR 8.30/share Target Price with a Neutral recommendation.

Covalis Capital lowers its participation in PPC

PPC announced that Covalis Capital LLP lowered its total participation in the company’s share capital to 4.97% of total from on 18.02.2025 5.15% on 13.12.2024.

New law imposes fine to pirate TV users-Press

Press reports (capital) suggest that according to the new law that was voted in Parliament, pirate TV users will pay a fine ranging from EUR 750 to EUR 10.000. The same reports indicate that pirate TV users are estimated to be between 600k and 900k and top line loss at least at EUR 125.0m. The news is positive on OTE, as it will increase gradually its pay TV subscriber base.

The market ended the day flattish (-0.4%) on a high EUR 366m turnover, of which EUR 217m related to Piraeus Bank’s placement. The banking index ended just below the flatline with mixed performances among the four systemic, with Piraeus Bank recording 3.9% losses, while Eurobank rose 1.4% on the day and Alpha was up 0.7%. On non-financials, Titan stood out posting 1.4% gains and PPC ended flattish at +0.4%, whereas most large cap stocks finished the day with losses. Cenergy lost 3.5%, Jumbo retreated 2.3%, Lamda slipped 1.7%, OPAP lost c.1.5% and Motor Oil finished 1.1% lower.

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS

MACRO

According to Ministry of Finance, the State Budget balance posted a surplus of EUR 758m in January 2025, compared to a target for a EUR 200m surplus and a surplus of c.EUR 1.1bn in January 2024. In the same period, the State’s budget primary surplus amounted to EUR 1.9bn vs the target for a EUR 1.4bn surplus and a c.EUR 2.3bn surplus in January 2024.

PIRAEUS BANK <TPEIR GA, OW>

Paulson and Co announced that it sold 35m shares (c.2.8% of outstanding) at a price of EUR 4.58 / share via an ABB. After the sale Paulson continues to be the largest shareholder in Piraeus (stake of 14%) and is committed to remaining a long-term shareholder and participating in the growth and revaluation of the bank. Alex Blades, a partner at Paulson, will continue to be an active member of the BoD.

ATHENS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT <AIA GA, OW>

In the conference call yesterday, the management mentioned that it anticipates core shareholders to participate in the script dividend plan. As core shareholders account for 75.5% of outstanding there should be significant acceptance.

HELLENIC TELECOM <HTO GA>

OTE is due to report its FY24 results today, before the market opens. Bloomberg consensus calls for EUR 3.6bn revenues in FY24, EBITDA of EUR 1.3bn and a-Net profit of EUR 554m. A conference call will take place later today at 13:00 GR time. Dial ins: GR +30 210 9460 800, DE +49 (0) 69 2222 4493, UK & Intl +44 (0) 203 059 5872, US +1 516 447 5632.

PPC GROUP <PPC GA, OW>

PPC announced that Covalis Capital decreased its stake to c.4.9% from c.5.1% previously.

Market Comment // Greek stocks moved in the red throughout yesterday’s session, ending 0.46% lower at 1,596.64 points, just off the intraday low of 1,592.78, led by poor international momentum and ongoing profit taking. Turnover advanced to €367.5m, of which c€160m represented Piraeus bank’s placement. Piraeus shed 3.97% falling below the placement price, trailed by -3.5% in Cenergy. Among notable losers were also Autohellas, Jumbo, Fourlis, AIA, EYDAP, Intralot and Thrace Plastics, all down more than 2%, followed by Viohalco, Lamda, GEK Terna, OPAP, ELPE, EXAE, Aegean, MOH, Profile, Real, ADMIE and OLP (>1% losses). On the positive, Titan, Eurobank, Attica bank, Papoutsanis and Motodynamiki were among gainers, rising more than 1%. Today markets look poised for a slightly positive opening, as investors are assessing economic data, while anticipating Nvidia results later today.

Economy // Greek budget execution figures, released yesterday, reveal continuing momentum with the primary surplus settling at €1.98bn in Jan’25, far better than the targeted €1.4bn surplus for the same period.

OTE // OTE’s Q4 results out today pre-market. We anticipate Q4’24 Greece EBITDAaL sequentially stronger qoq (>2% vs 1.5% in Q3) offset by weak Romania (€2m drag), thus leading to group Q4 adj. EBITDAaL of €347m, +1.7% yoy. This will translate into €1,350m FY24 EBITDAaL, just +0.5% yoy. We expect net profit near €575m, +8% yoy in FY24, although given Romania’s ongoing cash burn the reported figure could be weighed down somewhat. A conference call will follow today at 13:00 Athens time.

Eurobank // Eurobank will report its Q4 2024 earnings tomorrow after market close, followed by a conference call at 16:00 UK time. We note that the Q4 results includes the full consolidation of HB. According to Bloomberg, Net Interest Income (NII) and total revenues are estimated at €670mn (-4% qoq) and €869mn (-2% qoq), respectively, in line with sector-wide trends, while adjusted net profit is expected to settle at €341mn, down from €413mn due to lower NII and non-core income.

HelleniQ Energy // HelleniQ Energy is set to release its Q4/FY’24 results tomorrow after market close. With refining margins rebounding from the Q3 trough, we expect the company to end the year on a strong note, though yoy comparisons will reflect a notable decline due 2023’s record-high results. We project Q4’24 revenue at €2.72bn (-18% yoy) and adjusted EBITDA at €181mn (-33% yoy), bringing FY’24 adjusted EBITDA to €934mn (-24% yoy). Accounting for quarterly inventory losses of €39mn (vs. €121mn in Q4’23), we expect Q4’24 net profit at €37mn, shaping our FY’24 net profit estimate at €50mn.

IDEAL Holdings // IDEAL is due to release its FY’24 results tomorrow, before market open. We expect the solid performance across divisions from the 9-mth period to extend into Q4, with the group ultimately delivering pro-forma FY’24 revenue of €344m (+11% yoy) and adjusted EBITDAaL of €41m (+21% yoy). Growth on a consolidated basis should be driven by the rebasement of IT given the accelerated project execution throughout the year, with group figures also set to benefit from incrementally higher margins in Retail, thanks to improvements in brand mix and expanded store capacity. Our estimates place consolidated net profit at €22.3m (+51% yoy), with risk leaning to the downside as results may be impacted by <€5m in one-offs related to corporate engagements throughout 2024 (primarily the sale of the Industrial segment).

Piraeus Bank // Piraeus Bank officially announced that Paulson & Co. sold 35mn shares (representing a 2.8% stake) at €4.58 per share as part of a portfolio rebalancing strategy. Despite the sale, Paulson remains the largest shareholder with a 14% stake (170mn shares). The firm reaffirmed its confidence in Piraeus Bank’s performance and its commitment to a long-term investment strategy. Additionally, Alex Blades, Partner at Paulson, will continue to serve on Piraeus’ BoD.