*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)
ATHEX headed north on Friday for a third session in a row and in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.28% at 1,401.58 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.30%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.01%, Banks Index: -1.15%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 95.8m, up from Thursday’s EUR 85.6m. On a weekly basis, the General Index dropped by 0.16% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: 0.00%, FTSE Mid Cap: -1.86%, Banks index: -1.03%). The rebalancing of MSCI Indices will set the tone today, with the deletion of Ellaktor from the small cap index at the close. Ahead this week: Hellenic Exchanges 9M24 results today after market and Fourlis 9M24 results tomorrow.
Macro Headlines
Fitch Ratings affirms ‘BBB-‘ Rating on Greece with stable outlook.
Fitch Ratings affirmed Greece´s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BBB-‘, with a Stable Outlook. Fitch expects real GDP growth to rise to 2.4% in 2025e, with primary surpluses remaining above 2% until at least 2026e, which coupled with the stable interest costs and moderate nominal growth will continue to drive the public debt/GDP ratio below 140% by 2028e from 164% at the end of 2023 (but still well above ‘BBB’ (56%) and Eurozone (90%) medians). Finally, Fitch notes that the country’s favourable debt profile (average maturity of 19 years with concessional interest rates and large cash reserves of EUR 47bn in September 2024) significantly reduces market risks and serve as a buffer against future shocks.
Sector Headlines
Government to impose extra tax on systemic banks?-Press
Reportedly (powergame), the Prime Minister might announce the imposition of an extra tax on systemic banks during his speech in Parliament in December. Recall that the voting session for 2025 budget will commence on 11 December and will be concluded on 15 December.
Market Headlines
MSCI Quarterly Index Rebalancing changes today amc
The quarterly rebalancing of the MSCI indices will take place today after the market close. As a reminder, MSCI has already announced no changes for the Greek stocks in its standard index, and the deletion of ELLAKTOR from the small cap index close.
Company Headlines
United Arabic Emirates state fund interested in acquiring HELLENiQ ENERGY (press)
According to Radar.gr, the state fund of the United Arabic Emirates is interested in acquiring the stakes of Latsis’ Paneuropean, and the HRADF in HELLENiQ ENERGY (40.4% and 31.2% respectively).
Hellenic Exchanges || CP: EUR 4.30 | TP: EUR 6.40
3Q24 results preview | A solid quarter despite seasonality
Optima View | Hellenic Exchanges is set to report 9M24 results today, post market close and management will host a CC tomorrow at 16:00 Athens/14:00 London Time. We expect a solid quarter on the back of higher trading activity in the cash market and market capitalization versus 3Q23. We reiterate our Buy rating and TP of EUR 6.40, as the stock is trading 8.2x EV/EBITDA24e at a deep 42% discount.
9M24e P&L | We estimate 9M24 group revenues of 39.1m (+14% y-o-y) and trading revenues to account for 61% of top line. In more detail, we forecast trading fees to reach EUR 6.7m (+3% y-o-y) and post-trading revenues of EUR 17.1m (+14% y-o-y), as the average DVT in the cash market increased, driven by the positive outlook of the Greek economy and the private placements of HFSF in Greek banks. We forecast EBITDA to reach EUR 18.4m (+28% y-o-y) and EBITDA margin to widen to 46.9% vs. 41.6% in 9M23. Below the EBITDA line, we have assumed: a) depreciation of EUR 3.1m, b) net financial income of EUR 1.5m and c) an effective tax rate of 21.4%. Hence, we assess net profit to jump 37% y-o-y to EUR 13.2m.
3Q24 Trading activity | The average daily turnover (ADT) rose by 5% y-o-y to EUR 104.7m in 3Q24, driven also by higher valuations (average M.Cap: EUR 100.0bn; +15% y-o-y). On the flipside, the average daily volume in the derivatives market remained weak (-19% y-o-y) and on the corporate front there was a minimal activity, due to seasonality.
Terna Energy 67% stake transfer to Masdar expected this week (press)
According to Euro2day.gr, the transfer to Masdar of the combined 67% stake of GEKTERNA (36.6%) and the other major shareholders in Terna Energy, is expected to take place this week. Soon after the transfer, a public offer at EUR 20/share to all remaining shareholders will follow.
OTE Share Buyback
The company announced that during 18/11/2024 – 22/11/2024, it purchased 414,128 own shares at an average price of EUR 14.865 per share and now holds 5,768,775 own shares or 1.297% of the total shares outstanding.
The market ended Friday’s session flattish, on a EUR 95.8m turnover, while banks showed signs of pressure. The banking Index was down 1.1% on the day, driven by Alpha’s 2% losses, while NBG slipped 1.6%, followed by Piraeus Bank -1.1%. On non-financials, OPAP was up 3.2%, Cenergy and Jumbo rose 1.9% and GEK Terna ended with 1.8% gains. On red, Helleniq Energy was down 1.8%, Sarantis and PPC both marked a 0.9% drop, while PPA finished 0.5% lower.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
POLITICS
SYRIZA elected yesterday a new leader Mr Socratis Famellos.
MACRO – GREECE
Fitch reaffirmed the rating for Greece at BBB- on Friday with a stable outlook.
MACRO – CYPRUS
Moody’s upgraded the sovereign by two notches to A3 from Baa2 on Friday, changing the outlook to stable. According to Moody’s the rating upgrade reflects the material improvement in fiscal and debt metrics.
PPC GROUP <PPC GA, OW>
Reportedly, PPC Renewables will proceed with the construction of three new wind parks of a total 100 MW capacity, in Greece. The project is expected to be completed during 1H26.
ATHENS EXCHANGE GROUP <EXAE GA, EW>
Athens Exchange Group will report 3Q24 numbers today, after the market close. We expect net profits in 3Q24 of EUR 3.5m on EUR 12.3m in revenues (+7% yoy) and EBITDA of EUR 5.1m (+8% yoy). We anticipate a weaker third quarter (vs. 1Q24 and 2Q24) due to lower ADTV (EUR 105m in 3Q24 vs. EUR 140m in 2Q24). A conference call will take place tomorrow (Tuesday, November 26) at 15:00 CET. Dial ins: GR: +30 213 009 6000, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063, US: +1 516 447 5632
Market Comment // Greek stocks crept higher on Friday, closing at 1,401 points (+0.28%) to mark a 3rd consecutive day on gains. The ASE General index finished at a weekly loss of -0.16%, as a late rally largely offset the sluggish start to the week. Friday’s trade activity shaped at €96m, below the 100-day MA of €119m. OPAP (+3.27%) and Papoutsanis (+2.15) outshone gainers, followed by Cenergy, CCH, Jumbo, GEK Terna, Noval Properties, Titan, Aegean and OTE (all on >1% gains). On the other hand, Alpha Bank (-2.05%) and HelleniQ Energy (-1.84%) stood out among laggards, trailed by NBG, Autohellas, Dimand and Piraeus Bank (booking losses of >1%). For today, international markets are set to open in the green on rekindled global sentiment, as markets brace for the impact of a Donald Trump presidency, while investors anticipate the release of October’s PCE inflation data during a holiday-shortened week.
Economy // Fitch ratings has affirmed Greece’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) at ‘BBB-‘ with a stable outlook.
OPAP // Recalibrating estimates post Q3’24 results, raising FY’24e EBITDA c2% (to €785m), landing c2% above the upper end of mgt guidance. We also update our model for recent developments (e.g. Cyprus licence) and trends across the games portfolio (weak Hellenic Lottery, strong casino, sturdy sportsbook), while rolling forward our valuation to end 2025. We end up with just slight changes to our forecasts, reiterating our 12m fwd PT of €17.9. Our detailed estimates can be found here.
Energy // According press, the Greek government will finalize a mechanism this week to address the resurgence in wholesale electricity prices since October. Following discussions with EU technical teams, the Ministry of Environment and Energy plans to introduce a tax on electricity producers’ profits to fund subsidies for households, starting in December and possibly extending through winter.
Kri-Kri // Kri-Kri is scheduled to release its 9M’24 results tomorrow, after market close. We expect revenues to increase by c16% yoy, driven by sustained volume growth for yogurt in international markets. We anticipate EBIT of €37.9m, broadly flat compared to the previous year and net profit of €36.4m (+20.5% yoy). We expect Q3 results to validate that the recently updated FY’24 EBIT guidance of €39.2mn is easily attainable
Thrace Plastics // Thrace will release 9M’24 results today, pre-market opening. Following on mgt guidance for flattish 9M’24 EBITDA, we forecast EBITDA at €36.8m (-0.6% yoy), on sales growth of 4.3% (€281m), with the latter primarily driven by volume growth as pricing/mix remains tough. Against this background, we calculate Q3’24 EBITDA of €12.3m (-5% yoy) on +6% yoy revenue growth.
MSCI // Flow from the MSCI November Index Review today after market. As a reminder the review resulted in no changes for the MSCI Greece Standard Index and one deletion in the MSCI Greece Small Cap Index, namely Ellaktor. MSCI Greece Standard Index currently consists of 9 stocks, namely OTE, OPAP, Jumbo, PPC, Eurobank, Alpha Bank, NBG, Piraeus Bank and Mytilineos.
Real Consulting // EGM on Friday, December 13th to vote on the relocation of the company headquarters.
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