εβδομάδος με την αγορά στο Χρηματιστήριο Αθηνών να αποκρούει εκ νέου τις ισχυρές
πτωτικές τάσεις στις ευρωαγορές. Ιδιαίτερο χαρακτηριστικό της συνεδρίασης ήταν ο
εκρηκτικός τζίρος λόγω πακέτων της ΤΕΡΝΑ Ενεργειακής, αλλά και της τριπλής λήξης
παραγώγων (triple witching) και των αναδιαρθρώσεων του δείκτη FTSE. O Γενικός Δείκτης
Τιμών έκλεισε στις 1.452,50 μονάδες, σημειώνοντας πτώση 0,26%. Ενδοσυνεδριακά
κατέγραψε κατώτερη τιμή στις 1.446,09(-0,70%). Σε εβδομαδιαία βάση ο βασικός
χρηματιστηριακός δείκτης κατέγραψε πτώση 1,14%. Από την αρχή του χρόνου ο ΓΔ
σημειώνει κέρδη 12,32% και ο ΔΤΡ κέρδη 21,99%. Ο δείκτης υψηλής κεφαλαιοποίησης
σημείωσε πτώση σε ποσοστό 0,27%, ενώ ο δείκτης της μεσαίας κεφαλαιοποίησης
υποχώρησε σε ποσοστό 0,56%. Η αξία των συναλλαγών εκτινάχθηκε στα 526,99 εκατ. ευρώ, εκ των οποίων τα 347 εκατ. ευρώ αφορούσαν στη μετοχή της Τέρνα Ενεργειακή, στο πλαίσιο της δημόσιας πρότασης της Masdar Hellas για την απόκτηση του συνόλου των μετοχών της Τέρνα Ενεργειακή. Ο τραπεζικός δείκτης κατάφερε να απορροφήσει τις αρχικές απώλειες και να κλείσει οριακά θετικά στο +0,05% και τις 1.295,08 μονάδες με μοιρασμένα πρόσημα, ενώ σε εβδομαδιαίο επίπεδο η πτώση περιορίστηκε στο -0,25%. Από τις μετοχές της υψηλής κεφαλαιοποίησης, τη μεγαλύτερη άνοδο κατέγραψαν οι μετοχές της Τέρνα Ενεργειακή (+0,96%), της Εθνικής (+0,80%), της Motor Oil (+0,78%) και της Eurobank (+0,63%). Αντιθέτως, τη μεγαλύτερη πτώση σημείωσαν οι μετοχές της Viohalco (-3,30%), Aegean Airlines (-1,66%), της Autohellas (-1,33%), της Μυτιληναίος (-1,18%) και της Πειραιώς (-1,04%).
Πέμπτο αίτημα για πόρους 3,1 δισ. ευρώ από το Ταμείο Ανάκαμψης. Η χώρα μας αιτήθηκε την εκταμίευση 1,3 δισ. ευρώ από το σκέλος των επιχορηγήσεων, μετά την επίτευξη 29 οροσήμων, και 1,8 δισ. ευρώ από το σκέλος των δανείων
Σύμφωνα με τα στοιχεία της Τράπεζας της Ελλάδος, την περίοδο Ιανουαρίου – Οκτωβρίου 2024 οι αφίξεις μη κατοίκων ταξιδιωτών αυξήθηκαν κατά 9,2% και οι σχετικές εισπράξεις κατά 5,5% σε σχέση με το αντίστοιχο περσινό διάστημα. Οι εισπράξεις διαμορφώθηκαν έτσι στο δεκάμηνο στα 20,935 δισ. σε σχέση με 20,459 δισ. για ολόκληρο το 2023.
Cenergy: Η Hellenic Cables υπέγραψε σύμβαση με την RTE για το έργο Bretagne Sud. Η Hellenic Cables θα προμηθεύσει 390 χλμ. export καλωδίων τάσης 225kV, εκ των οποίων 150 χλμ. θα είναι υποβρύχια και τα 240 χλμ. χερσαία καλώδια.
“Ισχυρό το story των Ελληνικών Τραπεζών το 2025”, σύμφωνα με την Axia Research. Οι Οίκος δίνει για την Alpha Bank τιμή – στόχο τα 2,50 ευρώ (αμετάβλητη), για την Πειραιώς τα 6,00 ευρώ (από 5,30 ευρώ πριν), για την Eurobank τα 3,00 ευρώ (αμετάβλητη) και για την Εθνική τιμή – στόχο τα 9,90 ευρώ (από 10,50 ευρώ πριν).
Alpha Bank: Συμφωνία με Davidson Kempner για τιτλοποιήσεις €1,1 δισ. Πώληση του 95% των ομολογιών μεσαίας (mezzanine) και χαμηλής (junior) εξοφλητικής προτεραιότητας για τις GAIA Ι και GAIA II. Διαχειριστής η Cepal. Αίτημα ένταξης στον Ηρακλή.
Η Alpha Finance τοποθετεί την τιμή – στόχο για την Optima Bank στα 13,9 ευρώ. Η σύσταση για τη μετοχή είναι “hold”.
Macro Headlines
Current account deficit narrows in October (BoG)
According to BoG provisional data, Greece’s current account balance in October 2024 recorded a deficit of EUR 383.2m, vs. a deficit of EUR 1,208.1m in the same period a year ago, due to the improvement in the balance of services and primary and secondary income accounts which was partly offset by a deterioration in the balance of goods. Additionally, in the 10M24 period the current account deficit widened by EUR 220.6m and stood at EUR 8,049m. Finally travel receipts in October 2024 stood at EUR 2,167m up by 19.7% y-o-y, while in Jan-October 2024 period travel receipts rose by 5.5% y-o-y to EUR 20,935m.
Comment: The 19.7% higher travel receipts during the month were driven by the increase by 8.6% international tourist flows during the month, and to lesser extent by the c.10.2% higher spending per traveler during the month. However, the current account deficit widened y-o-y in October and also 10M24, mainly due to the deterioration of the goods basket, on larger y-o-y drop in exports than in imports.
Bank of Greece economic forecasts
According to the interim report on Monetary Policy, Bank of Greece forecasts the Greek economy to keep on outpacing the EU average and GDP growth to turn out at 2.3% in 2024e, picking up to 2.5% in 2025e and moderating slightly to 2.3% in 2026e. The unemployment rate is also expected to drop to 10.6% in 2024e vs. 11.1% in 2023 and to squeeze further to 9.8% in 2025e and 9.1% in 2026e. HICP is projected at 3.0% in 2024e from 4.2% in 2023 and to narrow further to 2.5% in 2025e and 2.2% in 2026e. Finally, the current account deficit is projected to shape at 6.5% of GDP in 2024e, 6.0% in 2025e and 5.2% in 2026e.
Industrial Turnover index up by 0.9% in October (ELSTAT)
ELSTAT has announced that Greece’s Turnover Index in Industry (both domestic and non-domestic market) increased by 0.9% y-o-y in October 2024 compared to a decrease of 1.3% y-o-y in October 2023 while increased by 9.8% m-o-m. The average Turnover Index in Industry in the November 2023-October 2024 period increased by 1.1% y-o-y compared to a 0.6% y-o-y decrease in the respective November 2022-October 2023 period.
Sector Headlines
Banking sector fundamentals improved further in 9M24-BoG
Bank of Greece cited in its interim report on Monetary Policy that banks’ fundamentals improved further in 9M2024. In more detail, Greek banks generated a net profit of EUR 2.98bn (-1.2% y-o-y) and a ROE of 11.4% in 9M24, the NPE ratio squeezed to 4.6% vs. 6.7% in 2023 and the CET1 ratio stood at 15.5%, slightly below the Eurozone average of 15.8%. Finally, BoG expects that the pace of credit expansion will remain at high levels in 2025, supported by the economic expansion and the RRF projects.
Company Headlines
Alpha Bank applied to Hercules Asset Protection Scheme for two NPE securitizatons
Alpha Services and Holdings announced that its 100% subsidiary Alpha Bank has entered into a binding agreement with an entity of Davidson Kempner Capital Management LP in relation to the sale of 95% of the mezzanine and junior securitization notes which will be issued in the context of the securitization of two portfolios of NPEs (GAIA I and GAIA II), with a gross book value of EUR 1.1bn. Alpha Bank will retain 100% of the senior notes, benefitting from the provisions of the “Hercules” program as well as 5% of the mezzanine and junior notes. Cepal Hellas Financial Services will be the servicer of the loan portfolios of the GAIA I and GAIA II securitizations. Furthermore, Alpha Bank has already filed applications for the submission of the GAIA I and GAIA II Securitizations to the HAPS. The total proceeds for the group from the sale of 95% of the mezzanine and junior notes of the GAIA I and GAIA II Securitizations, along with the value of the senior notes, correspond to approximately 50% of the gross book value of the portfolios (EUR ca550m). The group NPE ratio is expected to drop below 4.0% and the NPE transactions to be capital adequacy neutral. The completion of the GAIA I and GAIA II Securitizations are expected to take place within 1Q and 2Q of 2025.
Cenergy Holdings announced new project in France
Cenergy Holdings announced that Hellenic Cables, its cables segment, in a consortium with Jan De Nul Luxemburg SA, signed a framework agreement with the French TSO, Réseau de Transport d’Électricité (RTE). Hellenic Cables will supply 390km of 225kV export cables, split into 150km of offshore cables and 240km of onshore cables. The project will establish three key cable links which will subsequently allow the connection of one 250MW floating offshore wind farm and a second one later, bringing the total power to 750 MW. These cables will play a crucial role in delivering clean energy to France’s power network. Hellenic Cables will be responsible for the design, manufacturing, termination, testing and commissioning of the 225kV cables, while Jan De Nul will be responsible for the transportation, laying and protection of the cable links. The submarine cables will be produced at the Hellenic Cable’s expanded facility in Corinth, Greece, with delivery expected between 2028 and 2030, while the land cables will be manufactured at Hellenic Cable’s land cable facility in Thiva, Greece.
Autohellas increased its stake in Aegean Airlines
The company announced that Autohellas a company linked with the Chariman of the BoD of the company bought on 18 December 30,000 shares for a total consideration of EUR 308,088.
Motor Oil trades ex-dividend today
As of today, Motor Oil trades ex-dividend of EUR 0.308/share (DY: 1.52%).
The ASE Index finished around the flatline on Friday (-0.2%), while turnover stood at EUR 515m, of which EUR 347m corresponded to the Terna Energy transactions. The banking sector finished flattish on the day, with NBG up 0.8% and Eurobank gaining 0.6%, whereas ALPHA Bank was down c.0.5%. On market’s top gainers, Motor Oil rose 0.7% and OTE was up 0.6%, while most large cap stocks finished on red territory. Aegean slipped 1.6%, Metlen and GEK Terna both lost c.1.2%, Titan dropped 1% and PPC recorded 0.6% losses. ASE closed tomorrow, reopens on Friday.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO I
According to BoG, the current account deficit amounted to EUR 8bn in the period of January to October 2024, compared to a EUR 7.8bn deficit in the corresponding period of 2023. The increase was driven mainly by a worsening in the balance of goods, with exports recording a 3.4% yoy decrease in the period vs a 1.5% yoy increase in imports.
MACRO II
Based on BoG estimates, GDP growth in 2024 is expected at 2.3% yoy, 2.5% yoy in 2025, 2.3% yoy in 2026 and 2.0% yoy in 2027. Regarding inflation, officials expect the HICP to decrease to 3.0% yoy in 2024.
BANKS
Reportedly, the Central Bank of Greece will open the window to allow a small part of cured NPEs (c.EUR 600-700m) to potentially return to the banking system.
ALPHA BANK <ALPHA GA, OW>
Alpha Bank announced that it has entered into a binding agreement with Davidson Kempner in relation to the sale of 95% of the mezzanine and junior securitization noted with a gross book value of EUR 1.1bn as part of Hercules II.
CENERGY <CENER GA, OW>
Cenergy announced that Hellenic Cables signed a contract with RTE regarding the design, manufacturing and installation of 150km high-voltage submarine and 240km onshore cables.
LAMDA <LAMDA GA, OW>
Lamda announced the distribution of 693.7k own shares, of a total value of EUR 5m, to 35 executives of the company.
Market comment // Greek stocks ended Fridays session lower (-0.26%), having traded in the red throughout the session. The week closed with losses of -1.14% for the General Index. Trading activity skyrocketed on Friday to €515m, of which €346m in Terna Energy following the mandatory public offer of Masdar for the 29.6% stake and c€90m in banks. Among leading laggards, Viohalco dipped -3.3%, trailed by Optima (-2.33%) and Dimand (-2.25%) and >1% losses in Fourlis, Aegean, EXAE, Autohellas, GEK Terna, Metlen Piareus and Titan. On the flipside, Terna Eenergy, NBG and MOH stood out among blue chip gainers. Today markets point to a mixed opening, as investors are seeking direction ahead of the holiday-shortened Christmas week.
Banks // According to Euro2day.gr, the Bank of Greece is paving the way for the return of “cured” loans from servicers to banks, pending approval from the European Banking Authority (EBA). The first step will be implemented through the “Refinancing One to One” process, where banks, in collaboration with servicers who hold the loan data, will be able to approach borrowers to repurchase the loans.
ADMIE // According to Euro2day.gr, the Crete-Attica electrical interconnection, Greece’s largest electricity transmission project with a budget of over €1.1bn, was completed in December 2024. Developed by IPTO’s subsidiary Ariadne Interconnection, the project has entered the pre-commissioning and operational testing phase, with full operation scheduled for spring 2025. This critical infrastructure enhances Crete’s energy security and lowers annual CO2 emissions by 500,000 tons.
Cenergy // According to an official announcement, Hellenic Cables, in a JV with Jan de Nul, has been awarded a framework agreement by RTE to supply and install c390km of 225kV land and submarine export cables for the Bretagne Sud offshore wind development in France. The cables are scheduled for delivery from 2028 to 2030 and will be manufactured at Hellenic Cables’ Corinth (submarine) and the Thiva (land-based) facilities.
Profile // According to an official announcement, Profile successfully completed a capital raising through a stock option plan, leading to the issuance of 159,488 new shares. The new shares will begin trading on the Athens Stock Exchange on Friday, December 27th.
Dimand // In our new report on Dimand, part of our SME coverage program sponsored by the EBRD, we have fine-tuned our forecasts to reflect the delayed exit from Minion and slightly higher construction costs for IQ Athens. Additionally, we have increased our estimates for revenue from project management activities, driven by income from ready-to-use building contracts. While 2024 fair value gains are expected to come in lower than initially forecasted due to slower progress on Fix, Balkan, and IQ Athens, as well as the delayed exit from Minion, these factors represent timing issues rather than fundamental concerns. The thesis remains intact, anchored in value creation through asset monetization and capital recycling from the sale of Dimand’s SPV participations. With 16 projects set to complete over 2024-27e, asset turnover is expected to rise significantly. We maintain our price target of €11, noting that global developers with 2-digit ROEs typically trade at or above 1x P/NAV, with Dimand being at 1.1x 2023 P/NAV but below 1.0x on 2024-25e.
Quest Holdings // According to press, Mr. Tsamaz will be appointed President of the BoD of Unisystems, Quest’s IT arm.
Motor Oil // Trades ex interim dividend (€0.30/share) as of today. Payment starts on Friday 3rd January.
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