*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)
∆ηµοπρασία εξάµηνων εντόκων την Τετάρτη, µπορούν να µετέχουν φυσικά πρόσωπα. Ο Ο∆∆ΗΧ θα δηµοπρατήσει έντοκα µε στόχο άντληση 500 εκατ. ευρώ.
Fourlis: Ανεβάζει στα €5,7 την τιµή-στόχο η Eurobank Equities. Η σύσταση για τον τίτλο είναι «αγορά».
ATHEX headed south on Friday, outperforming however the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index dropped by 0.22% at 1,425.19 units (FTSE Large Cap: -0.24%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.67%, Banks Index: -0.51%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 209.3m, up from Thursday’s EUR 125.5m. On a weekly basis, the General Index had gains of 0.42% w-o-w (FTSE Large Cap: +0.42%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.16%, Banks index: +0.29%). We expect ATHEX to move in line with the European markets, with Bank of Cyprus in focus today. Ahead this week: HFSF decision on NBG placement, Terna Energy & GEKTERNA 1H24 results on Thursday.
Macro Headlines
Current account surplus narrows in July (BoG)
According to BoG provisional data, Greece’s current account balance in July 2024 recorded a surplus of 246m, vs. a surplus of 847m in the same period a year ago, due to a deterioration in the goods, services and the primary income balances. Additionally, in the 7M24 period, the current account deficit widened by EUR 1,294m and stood at EUR 8,573m. Finally, travel receipts in July 2024 stood at EUR 4,031m, down by 4.2% y-o-y, while in the Jan-July 2024 period, travel receipts rose by 5.6% y-o-y to EUR 10,953m.
Comment: the 4.2% lower travel receipts during July, despite the increased by 4.1% international tourist flows during the month, imply lower spending per traveler of c.8% during the month; July historically ranks the 2nd most important month of the year in revenue terms.
Industrial Turnover index up by 11.7% in July (ELSTAT)
ELSTAT has announced that Greece’s Turnover Index in Industry (both domestic and non-domestic market) increased by 11.7% y-o-y in July 2024 compared to a decrease of 10.3% y-o-y in July 2023 while increased by 12.3% m-o-m. The average Turnover Index in Industry in the August 2023- July 2024 period increased by 1.1% y-o-y compared to a 6.8% y-o-y rise in the respective August 2022-July 2023 period.
Company Headlines
Bank of Cyprus shares to commence trading today
The 443,457,297 common shares of Bank of Cyprus are set to trade on the main market of the regulated market of ATHEX today. The starting price is EUR 4.78. Bank of Cyprus has a market cap of EUR 2.12bn and according to Factset consensus estimates, the stock is trading 0.87x P/TBV24e (23% discount to EU banks) and 0.81x P/TBV25e (26% discount to EU banks) and is expected to generate RoaTBV of 20.8% in 2024e and 15.9% in 2025e. Finally, consensus estimates that the bank will distribute a dividend of EUR 0.54/share, implying a gross dividend yield of 11% in 2024e. Finally, BoC announced that it will launch its share buyback program on ATHEX as of today.
HFSF to convene today and tomorrow-Press
Reportedly (euro2day), the BoD of HFSF will convene today and tomorrow to finalize the framework of the disposal of National Bank of Greece shares. The same reports suggest that HFSF will dispose a 10.0% stake or 91.471.515 common shares.
PPC denies potential spin-off and listing of PPC Renewables
Following a communication with the Company, PPC’s management strongly denies any possibility regarding the spin-off of the renewables business and the listing in ATHEX.
GEKTERNA and Terna Energy 1H24 Results release date
GEKTERNA and Terna Energy are set to release their 1H24 Results on 26 September after the market close. GEKTERNA will hold a conference the next day.
Profile 1H24 results out today
The company announced that it will report 1H24 results before the opening of ATHEX.
The market ended the trading session on Friday flattish, on a high EUR 209.7m turnover, due to FTSE rebalancing. The banking sector was down -0.5%, with NBG recording -1.6% losses, followed by Piraeus -0.5%. Among top gainers, Metlen was up 1%, PPA and PPC marked 0.9% and 0.7% gains, while OTE was up +0.6% and OPAP ended flattish (+0.3%). Motor Oil recorded a -2.6% drop, Fourlis and Sarantis were both down -c1.3%, with GEKTERNA and Jumbo flattish on the day. All eyes today on the commencement of trading of Bank of Cyprus in ATHEX.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
According to BoG, the current account deficit increased to EUR 8.6bn in the period of January to July 2024 compared to EUR 7.3bn in the corresponding period of 2023. The increase was driven by a worsening in the balance of goods at EUR 20bn, reflecting a drop in exports (-1.3% yoy) compared to a rise in imports (+4.1% yoy). Based on the data for July, the current account surplus decreased to EUR 246.2m, as the surplus of the services balance moved lower to EUR 4.2bn, while the goods deficit widened to EUR 2.8bn.
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCH CY, OW>
The company announced the re-launch of its share buyback program of up to EUR 25m, following its listing on ATHEX, effective from September 23rd. We remind that the shares will start trading today on ATHEX.
GEKTERNA <GEKTERNA GA, OW>
The company announced that the publication for its 1H24 results is scheduled for September 26, after the market close. Management will host a conference call on September 27, time tbc. On other news, the Ministry of Infrastructure is, reportedly, targeting an earlier handover of Attica Motorway to GEK Terna without taking into advantage the 5-month transition period. According to these press reports, the Ministry will target the speedy conclusion of the all the necessary steps with a handover even in October. We expect management to provide more clarity in the post results conference call on Friday.
Market comment // Trading mostly in negative territory throughout Friday’s session, the Greek market finished at 1,425.2 points, slipping 0.22%. The ASE index ended the week just 0.4% higher, bringing its ytd total return to 13.8%. Friday’s trade activity surged to €210m, significantly higher than the 100-day moving average of €117m due to the FTSE indices rebalancing. Performance (-2.8%) and Motor Oil (-2.6%) stood out among laggards, followed by NBG, Fourlis, Sarantis, CCH, Intralot and Autohellas (on >1% losses), while AIA and Trade Estates posted mild losses. On the flipside, Optima Bank (+2.77%), EYDAP (+2.66%) and Quest (+2.1%) led gainers, followed by Ideal Holdings, Ellaktor and Metlen (on >1% gains). Today, EU futures signal a positive opening on risk-on momentum underpinned by hopes for policy support in China.
Bank of Cyprus // The stock is set to make its trading debut on ATHEX today. The starting price of the 443.5m shares will be €4.78.
ADMIE Holding // Greece and Cyprus have signed an MoU to restart the Greece-Cyprus electrical interconnection project. The Greek parliament will ratify an amendment to the agreement, increasing Greece’s share of geopolitical risk in the project to 50%.
Fourlis // Our latest report on Fourlis (Value Play, Ready to Roll) disentangles the group figures across the OpCo-PropCo structure and argues that the stock is sufficiently de-risked at these levels, as both the REIC (trading at c38% discount to NAV) and the OpCo stub (trading at c4x 2024 EV/EBITDAaL) indicate quite a compelling risk-reward skew. We see Fourlis as a “show-me” story, whereby the REIC deconsolidation (likely in Q4’24) is a significant catalyst but will not eclipse operational execution. The latter has gathered steam (H1 EBITDAaL +62% yoy) but delivery will need to continue in H2 for the stock to move higher in the valuation spectrum. Our PT is based on an OpCo/PropCo framework valuing the former with a DCF (10% WACC) and the latter at market value, and increases to €5.7 per share, mainly as a result of the Foot Locker contribution.
Profile // Profile is set to release H1’24 results today before the market. We anticipate +20% EBITDA growth yoy on a +17% revenue increase vs. H1’23, reflecting c0.6pps higher EBITDA margin yoy. Our estimates suggest strong H1 performance across all activities, with particularly robust growth in banking software and Greek state projects. We expect the profitability increase to translate to H1’24 PBT of €2.5m, up from €1.9m in H1’23.
Premia // Premia posted strong H1’24 results, with total revenue rising to €9.6mn, up 7% yoy, and adj. EBITDA to €5.4mn, up 10%, driven by inflation-linked rent adjustments and new property additions. Net profit surged to €17.8mn, significantly boosted by revaluation gains of €17.1mn, compared to €3.5mn in H1’23. GAV rose to €345mn from €307mn in December 2023, while NAV increased to €162.5mn (€1.89/share), with the stock trading at a 38% discount to NAV.
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