Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (23.05.2024)

*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)
Υποχώρηση κατά 1,09% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός ∆είκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1480,09 µονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα 432,8 εκ .ευρώ (τα 255,6 εκ. πακέτα Μυτιληναίου 7,2 εκ. τεµάχια). Οι επαναλαµβανόµενες αποτυχίες υπέρβασης των 1500 µονάδων ενθάρρυναν τους πωλητές που ανέλαβαν από το ξεκίνηµα την υπεροπλία οδηγώντας το Γ.∆. σε αρνητικό έδαφος σε όλη τη διάρκεια της συνεδρίασης, µε το ενδοσυνεδριακό χαµηλό να καταγράφεται στις 3.30µµ. στις 1478 µονάδες και το κλείσιµο στις δηµοπρασίες να γίνεται λίγο µόνο ψηλότερα. Με οδηγό τις τράπεζες και το σύνολο σχεδόν των δεικτοβαρών τίτλων (πλην των ΜΟΗ και Τιτάνα), σε συγχρονισµό µε τους ευρωπαϊκούς δείκτες. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαµορφώνονταν στο 3,524%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (-1,39%) κατέγραψε απώλειες µε την Εθνική (-2,04%) να υποαποδίδει. Απώλειες ακόµη κατέγραψε η ∆ΕΗ (-1,51%), τα ΕΛΠΕ (-3%), ο ΟΠΑΠ (-1,98%), ο ΟΤΕ (-2,89%), ο Ελλάκτωρ (-3,15%), ο Μυτιληναίος (- 4,93%) λόγω του discount των πακέτων, η Βιοχάλκο (-2,77%), η Aegean (-2,25%), η ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ (-1,33%), ο Σαράντης (-1,94%), η ΕΛΧΑ (-1,20%), η Cenergy (-1,93%) και η Autohellas (-3,23%). Στον αντίποδα, κέρδη κατέγραψε η ΜΟΗ (+3,34%), ο Τιτάν (+1,43%) και η Ideal (+1,30%) από τη µεσαία κεφαλαιοποίηση. Απολογιστικά, 20 µετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 88 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Η Lavipharm και ο όµιλος Ideal ανακοινώνουν τα µεγέθη τους για το 1ο τρίµηνο. Η τιµολόγηση της µετοχής στο placement της Μυτιληναίος αποτέλεσε απροσδόκητο αρνητικό καταλύτη οδηγώντας σε γενικευµένη υποχώρηση στο Χ.Α. µε ανοικτά όλα τα ενδεχόµενα στη σηµερινή συνεδρίαση.
Motor Oil: Προσφορά 114,7 εκατ. ευρώ για την Ηλέκτωρ. Σε διαπραγµατεύσεις µε την Ελλάκτωρ για την εξαγορά του 94,44% της Ηλέκτωρ βρίσκεται η εισηγµένη.

Απόδοση 3,51% στην επανέκδοση οµολόγου λήξης 2034. Οι συνολικές προσφορές για τα 250 εκατ. ευρώ ανήλθαν σε 835 εκατ. ευρώ (υπερκάλυψη 3,3 φορές). Ηµεροµηνία διακανονισµού είναι η Τετάρτη 29 Μαΐου 2024.

Eurobank Equities: Στα 40,5 ευρώ η τιµή-στόχος για την Titan. Η µεγάλη αύξηση της τιµής-στόχου αποδίδεται από τη χρηµατιστηριακή στην κίνηση για εισαγωγή της αµερικανικής θυγατρικής σε χρηµατιστήριο της Νέας Υόρκης.

Alpha Trust Ανδροµέδα: Στα €6,76 η τιµή διάθεσης των µετοχών από την επανεπένδυση µερίσµατος. Οι τίτλοι θα εκδοθούν λόγω επανεπένδυσης του µερίσµατος από κέρδη της χρήσης 2023 µε αντίστοιχη αύξηση του µετοχικού κεφαλαίου.

Elvalhalcor: o κύκλος εργασιών διαµορφώθηκε στα 816,6 εκ. ευρώ το A’ τρίµηνο του 2024, -12,2%, συγκριτικά µε 930,5 εκ. ευρώ την αντίστοιχη περίοδο του 2023, επηρεασµένος και από τις µειωµένες µέσες τιµές των µετάλλων. Στο +1% ο όγκος πωλήσεων. Tα ενοποιηµένα κέρδη µ.φ. & δικαιώµατα µειοψηφίας ανήλθαν σε €12,9 εκ. για την περίοδο από €18,0 εκ. πέρσι. Μείωση δανεισµού κατά €190 εκ.
Autohellas: ενοποιηµένος Κύκλος εργασιών ήταν €217,1 εκ. έναντι €221,6 εκ. το 2023, EBITDA στα €51,5εκ. έναντι €47,8 εκ. το αντίστοιχο περσινό τρίµηνο. Κέρδη µ.φ. διαµορφώνονται στα €7,9 εκ., + 6,0% στο πιο αδύναµο εποχικά τρίµηνο του έτους. Στο +9,4% οι µισθώσεις στην Ελλάδα, στο +7,9% στο εξωτερικό αλλά -8,1% εισαγωγές/διανοµή.
Όµιλος Quest, το Α’ τρίµηνο του 2024: κατέγραψε ενοποιηµένες πωλήσεις €303 εκ., +6%, κέρδη EBITDA €18,6 εκ., -4,2%, κέρδη προ φόρων €11,7 εκ., – 14,4% και κέρδη µ.φ. €8,6 εκ., -14,9%. Λόγω µειωµένων περιθωρίων κέρδους η µείωση της κερδοφορίας.
 
*PANTELAKIS SECURITIES* (https://www.pantelakis.gr/)

* Motor Oil (MOH GA) submits €115m bid for Ellaktor’s (ELLAKTOR GA) 94%-owned waste management unit, equivalent to 8.2x trailing EBITDA

* Ideal (INTEK GA) Q1 proforma net income grew 18% y-o-y to €4.8m (PSe €5.5m, miss due to higher financial costs ) vs €4.1m a year ago, on stellar ICT and ADS consolidation

* Fourlis (FOYRK GA): Sporting goods sales gain traction in April-May, while IKEA keeps up Q1 pace (+4/5% y-o-y); sees REIC de-consolidation happening within 2H24

* Jumbo (BELA GA) AGM approves €1.00 DPS for FY23 (3.7% div yield)

* Q1 2024 current account deficit widens by 7% yoy to €4.2bn, as trade balance deteriorates

* Greece taps debt markets, raising €250m through June-2034 bond re-opening at 3.51%

*Optima bank Research (https://www.optimabank.gr)
ATHEX headed south yesterday for a second session in a row, underperforming the European markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 1.09% at 1,480.09 units, (FTSE Large Cap: -1.42%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.82%, Banks Index: -1.39%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 430.8m, up from Tuesday’s EUR 165.0m. We expect ATHEX to follow the international markets today, with Motor Oil, Ellaktor and Optima Bank in the spotlight.

Macro Headlines

Greece to lower its outstanding gross debt by EUR 3.2bn by year end (press)

According to Capital.gr, Greek Public Debt Management Agency plans to extend the average maturity of the Greek debt and to further lower the total gross debt to EUR 352.5bn by 2024 end (from EUR 356.7bn in 2023), with the early prepayment of bilateral loans of EUR 5.3bn and partial prepayment from the EUR 15.7bn ESM loans.

Greece taps additional EUR 200m through the 2034 Bond

PDMA successfully raised yesterday EUR 250m with the reopening of the existing 3.375% 10-year bond, at a final yield of 3.51%, with total amounts offered reaching 714m, at a coverage ratio of 3.34.

Sector Headlines

Gaming revenues increased by 14% in 1Q24

According to the Hellenic Gaming Commission total gaming revenues (TGR) of gambling providers increased by 14.1% y-o-y in 1Q24. Total bets amounted to EUR 10.86bn in the period Jan-Mar 2024 vs. EUR 9.51bn in the corresponding period last year, while GGR amounted to EUR 682m in 3M24 vs. EUR 641m in 3M23 recording a y-o-y increase of 6.4%. In more detail, Opap stores and VLTs revenues increased by 4.4% y-o-y reaching EUR 2.6bn, Lotteries revenues increased by 2.1% reaching EUR 80.5m, horse racing revenues decreased by 15.5% reaching EUR 7.6m, casino revenues increased by 8.7% reaching 498m, and online casino increased by 18.5% reaching 7.7bn.

Inbound travelers and travel receipts up in March (BoG)

According to the BoG, travel receipts in March 2024 rose by 34.2% y-o-y to EUR 372.3m, while in January-March 2024, travel receipts totaled EUR 942m, up by 28.2% y-o-y. The number of inbound travelers in March 2024 rose by 31.2% y-o-y to 874k, while in January-March 2024, the number of inbound travelers jumped by 24.5% y-o-y to 2,332.5k. Finally, the average spending per traveler in March stood at EUR 408, up by 3.2% y-o-y, while in the January-March period the average spending per traveler rose by 3.4% y-o-y to EUR 395.

Company Headlines

Optima Bank AGM today at 11:00 Athens/09:00 London Time

The AGM of shareholders will take place today at 11:00 Athens/09:00 London Time. Shareholders will approve among other issues of the agenda, the distribution of a gross dividend of EUR 0.44 per share (DY: 3.8%).

Aegean Airlines || CP: EUR 12.40 | Rating: Buy | TP:  EUR 14.70

1Q24 results Preview | Strong tourism demand and increased flight schedule supports top-line; FX losses and leases hits NP

1Q24 results preview | Aegean Airline is set to release 1Q24 results on Friday 24 May, before the market opening. We expect a sequential improvement on top line thanks to favourable traveling environment and the increased passenger traffic in AIA and the regional Greek airports. We expect 1Q24 group revenues of EUR 260.7m (up by 13.8% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 31.7m (+64.3% y-o-y despite increased leases) and the respective margin to reach 12.2% in 1Q24 vs. 8.4% in 1Q23 representing the exceptionally good cost control of the company and the improved fleet utilization. However, further down the P&L, we expect the higher depreciation cost, FX translation losses and financial expenses to weigh on net profits, with the respective figure down to EUR -23.2m vs. EUR -14.4m in 1Q23.

Motor Oil submits offer to acquire HELECTOR

ELLAKTOR confirmed yesterday that it received an offer from MOTOR OIL to acquire all the shares (94.4%) held by the Company in its waste management arm, ΗELECTOR for EUR 114.7m. The offer implies a historic (2022) P/BV of 1.08x and EV/EBITDA of 8.0x (trailing, for 2023 EBITDA).

Jumbo AGM approved dividend of EUR 1.00 per share

The AGM approved among others the dividend distribution of EUR 1.00/share (DY: 3.6%) with the payment date set for Tuesday, July 16. Management also stated that it maintains its sales and earnings estimates for an 8-10% y-o-y increase and that as of May 5, sales of the group have increased by 10% y-o-y. Finally, management noted that three more stores are expected to become operational by the end of 2024 one in Nicosia, Cyprus, one in Timisoara, Romania and one in Bucharest, Romania.

ElvalHalcor 1Q24 results out

ElvalHalcor reported 1Q24revenues of EUR 3,293m, down 12.2% y-o-y, EBITDA of EUR 44.8m compared to EUR 56m in 1Q23 and net income after minorities of EUR 12.9m compared to EUR 18m in 1Q23. Adjusted for inventory, EBITDA stood at EUR 48.7m, down 30.7% y-o-y. Sales volume rose marginally by 1.5% YoY, driven by the 4% y-o-y increase in the aluminium segment which more than offset the 4% drop in copper volume sales. Group net debt (including leasing) stood at EUR 765m, down by EUR 190m y-o-y and by EUR 48m y-t-d, as operating cash flows of EUR 69.7m more than offset the EUR 20.1m net capex. The company has already declared a EUR 0.04/share dividend for 2023 (ex-date 25 June, DY: 2%). Regarding 2024 outlook, despite the headwinds from the rising interest rates and inflation on economic activity and the geopolitical crisis, ElvalHalcor anticipates the future with optimism, as it is well-positioned to leverage its broad and diversified product portfolio, as well as its strategic advantages, such as its customer-centric philosophy, the innovative technology and the strong international orientation of sales, with no dependency on countries or geographical areas, which provide the ability to capitalise on any future opportunity. The company will hold a conference call today.

Autohellas results out

The company posted its results yesterday, with total revenues came in at EUR 217.1m down by 2.0% y-o-y vs. EUR 221.6m in 1Q23, EBITDA reached EUR 51.5m vs. EUR 47.8m last year, recording a y-o-y increase of 7.7%, while net profit increased by 6.0% y-o-y at EUR 7.86m vs. EUR 7.4m a year ago. Per segment analysis, the turnover of Greek rental activity increased by 9.4% y-o-y at EUR 53.6m aided by both short-term and long-term rental increased demand but lower price environment maintained. Revenues of international rental activity reached EUR 32.7m vs. EUR 30.3m or up by 7.9%, while the category of import and distribution recorded a decrease in revenues of 8.1% y-o-y reaching EUR 130.9m. Management noted that turnover from the activity of FIAT / JEEP / ALFA ROMEO is not consolidated due to joint control with Samelet, and revenues reached EUR 31.3m in 1Q24.

Quest Holdings 1Q24 results

Group sales came in at EUR 303.1m (+6% y-o-y), EBITDA at EUR 18.7m (-4% y-o-y) and net profit at EUR 8.5m (-15% y-o-y). EBITDA margin narrowed to 6.2% vs. 6.8% in 1Q23 and net debt stood at EUR 30.2m from a net cash position of EUR 15.8m in 1Q23. Management has guided for a mild growth in sales, EBITDA and EBT in 2024.

REDS to delist its shares from ATHEX (expected)

REDS announced that following a relevant approval from the EGM, filed yesterday a request to delist all its shares from ATHEX.

Noval Property IPO time schedule

Noval Property released yesterday the prospectus for the EUR 43.5m IPO. The price range of the IPO shares will be announced on May 28, the Public offer for the IPO will commence on 29 May and end on 31st, and the final offering price will be announced on 31st o May. Finally, the commencement of all Noval Property shares is expected on 5th of June.

*Euroxx Χρηματιστηριακή (https://www.euroxx.gr)

The ASE Index ended the day with losses, down -1%, on a significantly high EUR 430.8m volume (due to the MYTIL GA blocks), whereas banks also marked a -1.4% drop, with all major banks on the red. On-non financials Motor Oil stood out rising 3.3%, followed by TITAN +1.4%, with Jumbo and PPA flattish, down -0.15% and -0.2% respectively. Among worst performers Ellaktor and Helleniq Energy recorded a c.-3% drop, while OTE slipped -2.9%. Mytilineos was down -4.9%, post placement, closing at EUR 37.02 /share.

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS 

MACRO

According to BoG, the balance of travel services, recorded a surplus of EUR 366.6m in 1Q24, while the corresponding figure for March stood at EUR 136.6m. In the meantime, travel receipts rose by 28.2% yoy in Q1 and 34.2% yoy in March.

NOVAL PROPERTY

NOVAL Property announced yesterday the that the prospectus for the IPO was approved by the HCMC yesterday. The timeline for the IPO is May 28 for the publication of the binding offering price range with the offering taking place from May 29 to May 31. Commencement of trading of new shares will take place on June 6.

JUMBO <BELA GA, EW>

In the AGM yesterday, shareholders approved the dividend from 2023 net profits (EIUR 1.0 / share). Management re-iterated that the budget for 2023 will be reviewed post 1H trading statement and maintained for the time being the 8-10% sales and earnings growth estimate. Sales from the beginning of the year up to May 5 were up 10% yoy, indicating solid trading during Easter.

MOTOR OIL <MOH GA>

Ellaktor (ELLAKTOR GA) announced that it received an offer from Motor Oil to acquire it’s 94.4% stake in subsidiary HELECTOR.  The offer price stands at EUR 114.7m, which represents an equity value of EUR 121.5m for 100% of HELECTOR. HELECTOR is active in Waste Management and environmental services. In 2023 as part of the Environment segment of Ellaktor it reported revenue of EUR 100m, an EBITDA of EUR 14.2m and a net cash position of EUR 5.5.

News is expected and has been circulated previously in local press reports.

AUTOHELLAS (OTOEL GA, OW)

Autohellas reported 1Q24 results yesterday with consolidated sales of EUR 217.1m, down 2.0% yoy due to an 8% decrease in Autotrade Greece, as Rentals Greece rose by 9.4% yoy and the International Segment by 7.9% yoy. The reduction in Autotrade is due to the restoration of the supply chain (which had boosted invoicing in 2023). On an EBITDA level, Autohellas posted a growth of 7.7% yoy to EUR 51.5m. with net profit increasing by 6% yoy to EUR 7.86m.

The results indicate a solid start for the Greece with high single digit growth in Rentals Greece and the International Segment. We do highlight, however, the seasonality in the results with 1Q being the weakest quarter of the year (accounting for 10-12% of annual EBIT). We retain our positive view on Autohellas which trades at low multiples (P/E of c.7.0x on 2024E) and is a safe play on Greek tourism and the local macro recovery.

ELVALHALCOR <ELHA GA>

The company, Viohalco’s subsidiary, announced its 1Q24 results, marking a -12.2% yoy drop in sales, amounting to EUR 816.6m, mainly due to the downward pressure in metal prices, while adjusted EBITDA declined to EUR 48.7m, down -30.7%. In the meantime, Net Profit decreased to EUR 12.9m compared to EUR 18m a year ago, with Net debt also lower, down EUR 190m from 1Q23. The company will host a conference call today at 13:00 GR time. Dial ins: GR +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800 , UK  +44 (0) 800 368 1063 , UK & International +44 (0) 203 059 5872  , US +1 516 447 5632.

*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.gr)

Market Comment // Trading in negative territory intraday, the ASE General index finished at 1,480 points (-1.09%) on Wednesday, weighed down by the muted mood in global bourses and the Mytilineos placement. Trade activity leaped to €431m (vs the 100-day MA of €140m) with Mytilineos alone responsible for c73% of turnover. Mytilineos (-4.93%) stood out among laggards, followed by Autohellas, ATHEX, Ellaktor and HelleniQ Energy (on >3% losses), while OTE, Viohalco, Fourlis, Aegean Airlines and Alpha Bank all booked losses >2%. On the other hand, Motor Oil (+3.34%) outshone gainers, while AIA, Titan Cement, IDEAL Holdings and Thrace Plastics (all on >1% gains) also offered support. The market looks headed for a mixed opening today, in line with EU futures, as AI-led optimism returns following NVDA’s results beat, despite hawkish comments on inflation from Fed officials in the FOMC minutes.

Titan Cement // In our latest report on Titan Cement “Cementing value through US IPO” we move the valuation debate to the €40 area (new PT at €40.5, from €31.0 previously), as the listing of the local business in the US approaches, anticipating investors to gradually adopt a SOTP approach in valuing Titan. This should help crystallize value >€700m or €9/share on our estimates, considering the valuation gap between US and EU peers, catalyzing a re-rating of Titan Cement’s shares. We have reflected this in our model early on, now basing our valuation on a SOTP (US vs rest) placing the stock at 6.3x 1-yr fwd EV/EBITDA, still c15% discount vs the global median peer group valuation. We expect the US listing to fetch between c€270-600mn, depending on the stake sold and the valuation attached, but given current US-listed peers valuation (>8x EV/EBITDA), an amount >€400m looks within reach. We also see plenty of scope for a sizeable capital return post IPO, considering the Group’s underleveraged balance sheet. Lastly, we keep our estimates unchanged, but we do identify upside risk to our FY’24e EBITDA of €573mn (+6% yoy), considering the easy comps for the remaining of the year.

Aegean Airlines // Aegean is scheduled to release Q1’24 results tomorrow, pre-market opening. We forecast that strong Q1’24 traffic figures (+11% already announced) will enhance Aegean’s top line performance and underpin operating profitability in a traditionally soft winter quarter. We forecast Q1’24 EBITDA at €31m, up by an impressive +60% yoy, on +15% revenue growth.

Motor Oil – Ellaktor // Motor Oil has submitted a conditional offer for the acquisition of Ellaktor’s 94.44% stake in its subsidiary “Helector”. The offered consideration is set at €114.7mn, which corresponds to an equity value of €121.5mn for 100% of Helector’s share capital. Deal completion is subject to approval by the corporate bodies of the parties and the finalisation of the SPA.

Autohellas // Autohellas reported Q1’24 results yesterday, with EBITDA rising by 8% yoy to €51.5m (€1m above our estimate), benefiting from the tourism growth, despite a 2% yoy drop in revenues (€217m). Group net debt grew to c€692m in end-Q1’24, pointing to quarterly outflows of c€142m, due to fleet expansion.

IDEAL Holdings // IDEAL Holdings is scheduled to publish its Q1’24 results today, before the market. We anticipate pro forma revenues at €94.6m (+12% vs Q1’23) and pro forma Adj. EBITDAaL at €11.4m (+16% yoy), driven by accelerated project execution in IT and improved overall foot traffic in Specialty Retail. Our calculations lead to a pro forma Q1’24 PBT of €7.6m (vs €6.6m a year ago). We expect a strong start to the year to underpin our FY’24 EBITDA (pro forma) forecast of c€54m and see optionality from the reinvestment of the proceeds of the Astir sale.

Quest // Quest reported Q1’24 results in broad sync with our expectations. Q1 EBITDA shaped at €18.6m, down 4.2% yoy (vs EEe €19m), weighed by a slightly higher than expected drop in commercial activities and IT services profitability. Despite the soft start for the year, Quest mgt reiterated its positive outlook for 2024, which calls for mild growth in sales, EBITDA and EBT, primarily driven by solid growth in IT and Courier services.

Noval Property // Noval Property has published its prospectus ahead of the upcoming IPO, through which it aims to raise up to €43.47mn through the issuance of up to 17.4mn new ordinary shares. These shares will be offered to investors through a public offer at a maximum price of €2.82/share. The price range of the IPO will be announced on May 28th. The IPO itself will run from May 29th to May 31st. Trading of Noval Property shares on Athex is scheduled to commence on June 5th.

Jumbo // Shareholders approved yesterday, as expected, the distribution of a €1.0 dividend per share (3.7% yield). The shares will trade ex-div on 10th July. Mgt reiterated the 8-10% growth target for this year, while repeating it will reassess this after the end of H1.

Motodynamics // AGM today where shareholders are set to approve a gross DPS of €0.12/share (ex-dividend date set for May 28th, payment starting 3rd June).

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ΓΙΝΕΤΕ ΜΕΛΟΣ ΕΔΩ

ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.