Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (23.02.2024)

*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)

Υποχώρηση κατά 0,07% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός ∆είκτης του Χ.Α. κλείνοντας στις 1419,25 µονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα 108,5 εκ. ευρώ. Οι δείκτες των διεθνών αγορών κινήθηκαν ανοδικά και µάλιστα ο Nikkei κατέγραψε ιστορικό υψηλή επίδοση αφού χρειάστηκαν 35 χρόνια για να συντελεστεί. Όµως, στο ελληνικό χρηµατιστήριο το σκηνικό ήταν διαφορετικό µε τη µεταβλητότητα να οδηγεί σε εναλλαγή προσήµου και τους πωλητές να πετυχαίνουν στις δηµοπρασίες την καταγραφή αρνητικού προσήµου, παρά την υψηλή χρηµατική διανοµή €0,71/µετχ.(+23%) που ανήγγειλε το πρωί ο ΟΤΕ. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαµορφώθηκαν στο 3,338%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (+0,38%) κατέγραψε κέρδη µε την Alpha (+0,88%) να υπεραποδίδει. Κέρδη ακόµη κατέγραψε η Helleniq Energy (+2,37%), η ∆ΕΗ (+0,42%), ο Μυτιληναίος (+0,76%), η Aegean (+1,13%), ο ΟΛΠ (+1,01%), ο Τιτάν (+1,36%) και ο Σαράντης (+3,13%). Στον αντίποδα, απώλειες κατέγραψε ο ΟΤΕ (-2,66%, ενδοσυνεδριακά +1,94%), η MOH (-0,72%), το Jumbo (-1,29%), η ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ (-0,82%), η Τενέργα (-0,98%), η Cenergy (-0,86%), η Autohellas (-0,74%) και η Infoquest (-2,25%). Απολογιστικά, 41 µετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 57 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Η Γερµανία ανακοινώνει σήµερα την επίδοση του ΑΕΠ για το 4ο τρίµηνο που εκτιµάται ότι θα είναι αρνητική έναντι του τρίτου αλλά και σε ετήσια βάση. Νέα ιστορικά ρεκόρ για το δείκτη Dax στη Γερµανία και τον S & P 500 στη Wall Street µε οδηγό τη Nvidia µετά το δείκτη Nikkei που είχε προηγηθεί. Το ελληνικό χρηµατιστήριο καλείται µε χρονοκαθυστέρηση να συγχρονίσει το βηµατισµό του µε τις διεθνείς αγορές !
CNL Capital: Έκδοση κοινού οµολογιακού δανείου έως €1 εκατ. Το οµολογιακό δάνειο, χωρίς εµπράγµατες εξασφαλίσεις, έχει ως σκοπό την ενίσχυση της επενδυτικής στρατηγικής της εταιρείας.
Νέα µονάδα στον Βόλο στήνει η Μυτιληναίος, επένδυση 60 εκατ. ευρώ. ∆εύτερο εργοστάσιο παραγωγής µεταλλικών κατασκευών για την εισηγµένη στη Νέα Ιωνία. Συνέργειες µε την υφιστάµενη µονάδα. Μπαίνει σε παραγωγή το 2026. Στις 250 οι νέες θέσεις εργασίας.
Α∆ΜΗΕ: Στο 7,51% το WACC για το 2024. Αύξηση των ρυθµιζόµενων εσόδων, µε βάση και απόφαση της ΡΑΑΕΥ.
ΟΤΕ: άνοδο 36,8% στα καθαρά κέρδη του 2023, στα 531,7 εκατ. ευρώ. Ο τζίρος της εταιρείας διαµορφώθηκε στα 3,46 δισ. ευρώ, αυξηµένος κατά 0,4% σε ετήσια βάση. Ο όµιλος εµφάνισε ισχυρές ελεύθερες ταµειακές ροές, στα €501 εκατ., σύµφωνα µε τον στόχο, ενώ οι επενδύσεις ανήλθαν στα €621 εκατ. ∆ιανοµή µερίσµατος 0,71 ευρώ ανά µετοχή, αυξηµένου κατά 23%, αλλά και νέο πρόγραµµα απόκτησης ιδίων µετοχών ύψους 153 εκατ. ευρώ.
Alpha Finance: Τιµή στόχος €4,9 για τη µετοχή της Πειραιώς.
Αύξηση παραγωγής 8,9% για τις ασφαλιστικές εταιρίες το 2023 ανερχόµενη στα € 5,26 δισ. Άνοδο 5,7% εµφάνισαν οι ασφαλίσεις ζωής, φθάνοντας τα 2,56 δισ. ευρώ.
ΥΠΑ: Αυξηµένη 8,9% η επιβατική κίνηση στα ελληνικά αεροδρόµια τον Ιανουάριο. ∆ιακινήθηκαν συνολικά 2.406.801 επιβάτες, έναντι 2.209.593 επιβατών τον Ιανουάριο του 2023.

Εξαγορά από την Coca Cola HBC στην Ιρλανδία. Απέκτησε, µέσω θυγατρικής, το 100% της BDS Vending, εστιάζοντας µε αυτή την κίνηση στο last mile delivery.

*PANTELAKIS SECURITIES* (https://www.pantelakis.gr/)

* OPAP (OPAP GA): domestic gaming market GGR +11% yoy in 2023 (online +17%, offline +7%), after a strong finish to the year (December +29% yoy)

* Mytilineos (MYTIL GA) to spend €60m to increase production of advanced metal constructions in Greece

* Greek airports Jan pax traffic grew 9% y-o-y to 2.4m (vs 14% in 2023), with aircraft movement rising 2% to 23k

*Optima bank Research (https://www.optimabank.gr)
ATHEX headed south yesterday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 0.07% at 1,419.25 units, (FTSE Large Cap: -0.08%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.25%, Banks Index: +0.38%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 110.5m, down from Wednesday’s EUR 119.6m. We expect ATHEX to move higher today, aided by the European stock markets.

Energy regulator estimates excess profits of the electricity suppliers at EUR 200m (press)

According to Energypress.gr, the excess profits of the electricity suppliers in the August 2022-December 2023 period is estimated by the Regulatory authority at EUR 200m, lower compared to the previous estimate of EUR 250-260m.

Company Headlines

OTE | CP: EUR 13.53, TP: EUR 15.00, Upside: 10.9%

2023 results and 2024 guidance in line, DPS higher

Optima View | OTE reported 2023 results that came in line with our estimates in terms of top line and adj. EBITDA (AL) and beat in bottom line on lower than expected financial expenses and tax rate. Management proposed the distribution of a EUR 0.71/share (+23% y-o-y), implying a gross dividend yield of 5.1%. The stock is trading 4.7x EV/EBITDA24e, at 27% discount to EU telcos. Following the release of 2023 results, we’ll update our forecasts and TP.

Shareholders remuneration | Management proposed to raise total shareholder remuneration to EUR 450m or ca 95% of its expected FCF in 2024 from 85% in 2023 and 84% in 2022, of which EUR 297m cash dividend and EUR ca153m in share buyback. The dividend will be paid out to shareholders on 10 July 2024, following approval of the AGM of shareholders to be held on 28 June 2024.

Guidance 2024 | Management expects to further improve its operational and financial performances, as demand for core retail offerings, ARPU-enhancing initiatives, and cost-savings should continue to generate positive momentum. Top line is expected to continue to grow despite some pressures on local wholesale revenues, whilst cost-efficiency initiatives in personnel expenses will partly counterbalance the impact of higher energy costs. Hence, it expects further growth in operating profit, albeit at a slower pace than revenue. OTE expects CapEx to reach EUR 610m-620m in 2024, slightly higher than our estimate of EUR 600.0m and to generate FCF (AL) of EUR ca470.0m in 2024 from EUR 501.2m in 2023 due to higher income tax payments and in line with our estimate.

Group P&L | Group revenues came in at EUR 3,469m (+0.4% y-o-y), in line with our and consensus estimates of EUR 3,451m. Adj. EBITDA AL was shaped at EUR 1,343m (-0.4% y-o-y),  in line with our estimate of EUR 1,339m, with the respective margin at 38.7% v s. 39.0% in 2022. Reported net profit reached EUR 531.7m (+36.8% y-o-y), 4% above our estimate of EUR 513.0m on lower than expected financial expenses and tax rate and in line with consensus estimate of EUR 533.0m. The company generated reported FCF (AL) of EUR 501.2m (-16.1% y-o-y) in 2023 and EUR 104.1m (-24.5% y-o-y) in 4Q23 from EUR 27.0m in 3Q23. Net Debt decreased by EUR 37.1 m q-o-q and by EUR 91.9m y-o-y to EUR 634.8m in 2023.

Greece | Top line reached EUR 3,189m (+1.1% y-o-y), thanks to higher mobile service revenues (+2.3% y-o-y) and other (ICT, Handset) revenues (+7.4%) and despite the pressures on retail fixed (-2.0% y-o-y) and wholesale (-3.0% y-o-y). Adj. EBITDA (AL) came in at EUR 1,326m (+1.2% y-o-y) with the respective margin at 41.6% vs. 41.5% in 2022.

Romania | Revenues came in at EUR 286.9m (-6.4% y-o-y), due to the mobile termination rate cuts, while an additional 50% reduction has been in place since the beginning of 2024. Mobile subscribers fell by 8.8% y-o-y to ca3.8m. Adj. EBITDA (AL) was shaped at EUR 17.0m (-55.3% y-o-y) with the respective margin at 5.9% vs. 12.4% in 2022.

Conference call highlights | Management stated yesterday in the CC that a) remuneration policy will be the same in the coming years, b) OTE does not intend to acquire a ICT company as they have an internal team and a strong pipeline in projects, c) cash taxes will be EUR 50m higher in 2024 compared to 2023, d) CapEx will reach EUR 600m in 2025 and e) the government is expected to pass a new law on piracy.

Mytilineos announced new large industrial plant for the production of high-tech specialized metal Structures

Mytilineos announced the establishment of a new production unit of advanced metal constructions aiming to expand the range of manufactured products in order to exploit all possible synergies with MYTILINEOS’ existing unit in Nea Ionia, Volos. The investment cost has been budgeted at EUR 60m, while production is expected to commence in 2H26e.

Coca Cola HBC acquired BDS Vending in Ireland

The company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Coca-Cola HBC Northern Ireland Limited, has reached an agreement to acquire 100% of BDS Vending Solutions Ltd for an undisclosed amount. BDS Vending was founded in 1993 and is a well-established food and drink vending services business in Ireland, with a fleet of approximately 2,000 vending machines. The acquisition of BDS Vending is consistent with Coca-Cola HBC’s strategy to enhance its route-to-market capabilities, including last mile delivery, while at the same time it will unlock profitable opportunities across its well-rounded cold and hot beverages and snacks portfolio. The proposed transaction is subject to approval by the Competition and Consumer Protection Commission in Ireland and is anticipated to be completed over the coming months.

Hellenic Bank 4Q/FY2023 results out today/ Eurobank Holdings on 07 March

Hellenic Bank is scheduled to announce 4Q/FY2023 results today, before market opening. Eurobank Holdings will report 4Q/FY2023 results and Business Plan 2024-2026 on Thursday 07 March, post-market close. Management will host a CC on the same day at 18:00 Athens/16:00 London Time.

Bank of Greece to distribute dividend in 2023-Press

Reportedly (euro2day), Bank of Greece will distribute dividend in 2023 but will be lower compared to 2022.

Intralot | Public offering ends today

The public offering of the common 5yr bond loan of up to EUR 130m ends today. The bonds will commence trading in the Fixed Income Securities market of ATHEX on 28 February. Recall that the yield range of the common bond was set between 6.0% and 6.4%.

 
*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.gr)

Market Comment // In a rather muted session yesterday the ASE Index ended marginally lower (-0.07%), in contrast with most European markets which finished in the green. Trading activity dropped a tad to €108m, below the 100-d moving average of €118m. Banks outperformed the main benchmark, rising 0.38% led by Alpha Bank (+0.88%) and Eurobank (+0.42%), with NBG and Piraeus also posting minor gains. Sarantis and ELPE were among the top gainers advancing more than 2%. On the negative side, OTE (-2.66%) and Quest (-2.25%) led losers, with Jumbo, Terna Energy, Cenergy, MOH and CCH also in the red. EU futures point to a positive opening today as investors embrace a risk-on mood in the aftermath of the tech-driven rally.

OTE // Mgt gave a positive tilt to the 2024 message despite the headwind from energy costs, effectively pointing to mild growth in 2024 numbers, as already reflected by market estimates. Mgt also indicated that leverage is not likely to change, and, in that regard shareholder remuneration should not exceed 100% of FCF. Our understanding is that cash returns are likely to be higher in 2025 thanks to the c€100m tax break eyed from the potential sale of Romania.   

Mytilineos // The Group has announced its intention to establish a new production unit for advanced metal constructions in Volos, with the goal of expanding its product portfolio and leveraging synergies with its existing unit in the region. Mytilineos estimates the investment at €60mn, while production is set to commence in H2 2026.

ADMIE Holding // Following the WACC step-up announced for the affiliate IPTO in July 2023, the regulatory body (RAWEW) has officially published the relevant decision. The latter confirms a WACC uplift for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 to 7.57%, 7.51%, and 7.45%, respectively, in line with ADMIE Holding’s initial announcement. 

Coca-Cola HBC // CCH announced yesterday the acquisition of BDS Vending Solutions in Ireland, with a fleet pf c2K vending machines; the acquisition is expected to be completed over the coming months. No financial details have been disclosed.

 

* Tα παραπάνω σχόλια μπορείτε να τα διαβάσετε πρώτοι στο viber του mikrometoxos.gr

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