Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (23.01.2025)

*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)

Υποχώρηση κατά 0,57% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός Δείκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1530,68 μονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαμορφώθηκε στα 137,2 εκ. ευρώ. Η διάθεση για αποκόμιση κερδών στις τράπεζες ήταν φανερή από το ξεκίνημα οδηγώντας το ΓΔ σε αρνητικό έδαφος. Παρά την αντίδραση από άλλα blue chips (Τιτάνα, ΔΑΑ, Aegean) οι πωλητές επανήλθαν μετά το μεσημέρι οδηγώντας το ΓΔ με το κλείσιμο στις δημοπρασίες να γίνεται στο χαμηλό ημέρας. Την ίδια ώρα, οι ευρωπαϊκοί δείκτες κινήθηκαν πάλι αρνητικά με το ελληνικό χρηματιστήριο να αυτονομείται, ενώ οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαμορφώνονταν στο 3,232%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (-2,41%) κατέγραψε απώλειες με την Alpha (-2,80%) και την Πειραιώς (-2,41%) να υποαποδίδουν. Απώλειες ακόμη κατέγραψε η ΕΕΕ (-1,08%), η ΜΟΗ (-1,12%), η Helleniq Energy (-0,66%), η Metlen (-1,34%), η Τράπεζα Κύπρου (-0,79%) και ο ΟΤΕ (-0,8%). Στον αντίποδα, κέρδη κατέγραψε η ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ (+1,08%), ο ΟΠΑΠ (+1,06%), η Cenergy (+1,77%), ο Τιτάν (+2,25%), η Aegean (+3,10%), το ΔΑΑ (+3,73%), ο ΟΛΠ (+2,49) αλλά και η ΕΚΤΕΡ (+6,29%) από τη μικρή κεφαλαιοποίηση. Απολογιστικά, 58 μετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 35 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Το ελληνικό χρηματιστήριο αυτονομήθηκε χτες από τις ξένες αγορές, όπου οι δείκτες συνεχίζουν την αναρρίχησή τους. Ο ΓΔ στο Χ.Α. κινήθηκε πτωτικά, αφού πρώτα κατέγραψε νέο ρεκόρ στις 1541 μονάδες, δύο μονάδες υψηλότερα από το αμέσως προηγούμενο. Πλησιέστερη αξιόλογη στήριξη στις 1514 μονάδες.

ΟΛΘ: Εγκρίθηκε το Ενημερωτικό της ΔΠ της Leonidsport. Περίοδος αποδοχής θα έχει διάρκεια 4 εβδομάδων με ημερομηνία ολοκλήρωσης στις 20.02.2025. Στα 27 ευρώ το προσφερόμενο τίμημα.

Axia: Τιμή-στόχος στα €27,40 για ΓΕΚ ΤΕΡΝΑ με σύσταση αγορά. Περιθώριο ανόδου 48% για τη μετοχή, από τα τρέχοντα επίπεδα. Τα καθαρά κέρδη θα φθάσουν τα €218 εκ. έως το 2028.

Σαράντης: «ξαναβλέπει» η NBG Securities, καθώς επανεκκινεί κάλυψη με σύσταση outperform και τιμή-στόχο στα €15,3, 40% υψηλότερα από τα τρέχοντα επίπεδα.

Jefferies: νέες οι τιμές-στόχοι για τις ελληνικές τράπεζες. Alpha Bank στα 2,75 ευρώ, Εθνική Τράπεζα στα 11 ευρώ, Eurobank στα 3,05 ευρώ, Τράπεζα Πειραιώς στα 5,80 ευρώ.

Υπερκάλυψη, κατά 11,9 φορές για τη Δημόσια Προσφορά της Alter Ego Media. Η τιμή έκλεισε στο πάνω μέρος του εύρους, τα 4 ευρώ,. Η εταιρεία του Ευάγγελου Μαρινάκη άντλησε σχεδόν 57 εκατ. ευρώ.

Placement για το 2,2% της Eurobank από Prem Watsa με διαδικασία εξπρές η διάθεση των τίτλων και κατόπιν εποπτικής απαίτησης.

Επιτροπή Ανταγωνισμού: ενέκρινε το deal Motor Oil – Ηλέκτωρ. Δεν προκαλεί σημαντικές επιπτώσεις στη λειτουργία του ανταγωνισμού στον κλάδο διαχείρισης αποβλήτων.

Στο 2,45% από 2,61% υποχώρησε η απόδοση στα 6μηνα έντοκα γραμμάτια. Οι προσφορές ύψους 1.178 εκατ. ευρώ, υπερκάλυψαν το ζητούμενο ποσό κατά 2,36 φορές.

*Optima bank Research (https://www.optimabank.gr)

ATHEX headed south yesterday after six sessions in the green, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 0.57% at 1,530.68 units (FTSE Large Cap: -1.04%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.72%, Banks Index: -2.38%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 134.6m, up from Tuesday’s EUR 109.6m. We expect ATHEX to consolidate at current levels today.

Macro Headlines

6-month T-bill yield down

The Greek State raised EUR 600m yesterday from the issuance of 26-week T-bills. In more detail, the total amount auctioned was EUR 500m, while total bids reached EUR 1,178m (2.36x coverage ratio vs. 1.68x in the previous auction) for an interest rate of 2.45% (vs. 2.61% in the previous auction).

Sector Headlines

Completion of the 2nd phase of the tender for two road work projects expected in February (press)

According to Euro2day.gr, the 2nd phase of the tenders for two motor way contracts in Northern Greece with a total budget of EUR 700m is expected in February, with the submission of the binding offers of the four competitors, namely GEKTERNA, METLEN-AKTOR Concessions, AVAX and Aktor group.

Company Headlines

Fairfax Financial Group disposed a 2.2% stake in Eurobank Holdings-Press

Reportedly (Bloomberg), Fairfax Financial Group disposed a 2.18% stake or 80m shares to institutional investors at EUR 2.33/share, a 2.6% discount to yesterday’s closing price. The decrease of the stake is owing to the change of view of the regulator that asked from Fairfax to decrease its stake below 33.3%. According to ATHEX data, Fairfax Financial Group is the major shareholder of Eurobank Holdings, with a 33.47% stake and following the disposal we estimate that it will decrease it to 31.29%.

Greek competition authority approves the acquisition of HELECTOR by MOTOR OIL

The Hellenic Competition Commission approved the acquisition of ELLAKTOR’s waste management arm, HELECTOR by Motor Oil, assessing that the transaction will not create major market concentration in the waste management business.

Comment: As a reminder, already back in July 2024, Motor Oil and ELLAKTOR agreed on the acquisition of all the shares (94.4%) held by ELLAKTOR in its waste management arm, ΗELECTOR for EUR 114.7m, at a trailing EV/EBITDA of 8.0x and 5.0x for 2024e according to our estimates. The acquisition of HELECTOR is key for the further transformation of Motor Oil into a differentiated energy Group, aligned with its strategy to generate >40% of its profitability from non-fossil activities, contributing c. EUR 30m EBITDA per annum. In the latest 3Q24 conference call, Motor Oil’s management said that it sees business opportunities of EUR 5bn in the waste management sector.

ALTER EGO Public offer successfully completed

The initial public offer for the up to EUR 57m IPO of ALTER EGO was fully oversubscribed by 11.9x times with the issuance of 14,249,000 new shares with the share price set EUR 4/share, while the commencement of trading of all shares is expected on 27 January.

Greek competition authority approves the acquisition of Milora Real estate portfolio by AKTOR Group

The Greek competition authority approved the acquisition of Milora from Prodea, a EUR 600m Real estate portfolio with EUR 41.5m annual rental income by AKTOR Group.

Revoil resumption of buyback program

The company announced that the BoD approved the resumption of the share buyback program which was suspended on 28 June 2024, with duration until 15 September 2025.
  

*Euroxx Χρηματιστηριακή (https://www.euroxx.gr)

Following six consecutive days of gains, the ASE Index finished 0.5% lower, driven by downward pressures on banks, with turnover amounting to EUR 109m. The banking sector declined by 2.3% on the day, with Eurobank recording the biggest losses, down 3.2%, Alpha Bank slipping 2.6% and Piraeus Bank and NBG recording a 1.9% and 1.5% drop respectively. On non-financials, Aegean continued to outperform up 3.1% on the day, followed by PPA +2.5%, on top of Tuesday’s c.4% gains,  while Titan rose 2.2% and Cenergy marked a 1.8% increase. On red, Lamda continued to face pressure, down 1.5%, Metlen declined by 1.3%, PPC and OTE both finished 0.8% lower.

MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS

ALTER EGO MEDIA

Books for the public tender of EUR 57m closed yesterday. Alter Ego announced that total demand reached EUR 676.8m, indicating an oversubscription of c.11.9x, with the final offering price set at EUR 4.00/share. The details of the allocation of the new shares will be released tomorrow, while the commencement of trading of the shares will take place on January 27th. 

EUROBANK <EUROB GA, OW>

According to Bloomberg, Fairfax Financial proceeded yesterday with a placement of 80m Eurobank shares corresponding to 2.2% of total share capital. Following the sale, Fairfax stake will stand around but below 33% of share capital, while retaining its representation on the bank’s BoD. Reportedly, the placement is driven by regulators as Fairfax had exceeded the 33% stake and does not reflect any disinvestment plans. On other news, Eurobank announced the successful pricing of its EUR 400m 10-year Tier II notes, with a coupon of 4.25%. Demand on the issue reached EUR 2bn, indicating an oversubscription of 5 times. Moreover, Eurobank announced the exchange offer for Hellenic Bank’s outstanding EUR 200m, 10.25% Tier II notes with a call date on March 2028.

METLEN <MYTIL GA, OW>

Metlen announced the start of a strategic partnership with the Hellenic Survey of Geology & Mineral Exploration (HSGME) to enhance the supply security of the historic Aluminium of Greece plant and ensure the sustainable development of investments in the aluminum and alumina sectors. The initiatives to be undertaken aim to support the production and utilization of raw materials such as bauxite. 

MOTOR OIL <MOH GA>

The Hellenic Competition Commission approved the acquisition of HLEKTOR by MANETIAL, a 100% subsidiary of Motor Oil.

AKTOR <INKAT GA, OW>

The Hellenic Competition Commission approved the transaction between Aktor and Prodea regarding the sale of a real-estate portfolio to Aktor reaching a total value of EUR 600m.

*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.gr)

Market Comment // The Greek market lost its positive momentum on Wednesday, with the ASE index trading in negative territory throughout the session eventually closing 0.57% lower, near its intra-day lows. Trading activity picked up reaching €135mn, surpassing the YTD average of €126mn. Banks led laggards, with Eurobank shedding 3.4%, followed by Alpha Bank (-2.8%), Piraeus Bank (-2.4%), and NBG (-1.6%). Among non-financials, Lamda ended 1.5% lower, while Metlen (-1.3%), Motor Oil (-1.1%), and CCH (-1.1%) also posted losses. On the upside, AIA surged 3.7%, followed by Aegean Airlines (+3.1%), Noval (+3.0%), and PPA (+2.5%). Other notable gainers included Titan Cement (+2.25%), Hellenic Exchanges (+2.1%), Papoutsanis (+2.0%), Cenergy (+1.8%), Profile (+1.1%), GEK Terna (+1.1%), and OPAP (+1.1%). Today, EU futures point to a negative opening amidst profit-taking following the recent rally in European markets.

Alter Ego Media (AEM) // IPO process concluded yesterday meeting very strong demand (11.9x oversubscription), with the company raising €57m. The new 14.249m shares, offered at €4.0/share (at the upper bound of the range), will start trading on 27th Jan.

Eurobank // Fairfax, the major shareholder of Eurobank, completed yesterday a placement of 2.2% of the bank’s shares (i.e. 80mn shares). Given strong demand, as per BBG, the price settled at €2.33 per share, with the latter being just 2.6% below Wednesday’s closing price of €2.392. The placement was driven by regulatory requirements for Fairfax to reduce its stake below 33.3%. This follows a supervisory revision of its previous exemption allowing a higher non-voting shareholding. Settlement will occur around Jan 27th.

Motor Oil – Ellaktor // The Competition commission approved the acquisition of 94.44% of Helector by Motor Oil, paving the way for the conclusion of the €114.7mn deal.

Thrace Plastics // Ex div today for an interim dividend of €0.0699/share (€0.6647/share net, c1.7% div. yield). Payment will commence on Wednesday January 29th.