Ανοδικά κινούνται οι ευρωαγορές στο κλείσιμο μιας εβδομάδας που σημαδεύτηκε από την κορύφωση της σύγκρουσης Ρωσίας – Ουκρανίας, ενώ οι επενδυτές εξετάζουν μια σειρά από νέα στοιχεία για την οικονομία της Ευρώπης.
Ο πανευρωπαϊκός δείκτης STOXX 600 ενισχύεται κατά 0,6% και οδεύει προς τη δεύτερη ημέρα κερδών ύστερα από σερί τεσσάρων συνεδριάσεων με απώλειες. Ο κλάδος τεχνολογίας ανήλθε σε υψηλό μίας εβδομάδας, με κέρδη 1%.
Η εγχώρια αγορά βρίσκεται εν αναμονή του «χρησμού» της Fitch για το ελληνικό αξιόχρεο. Ο αμερικανικός οίκος πρόκειται να επικαιροποιήσει την αξιολόγησή του απόψε, αμέσως μετά τη λήξη της συνεδρίασης στη Wall Street. Η Fitch βαθμολογεί την Ελλάδα με BBB- και σταθερές προοπτικές
Ideal Holdings: Αύξηση του EBITDA κατά +263% στα € 37,7 εκατ., έναντι € 10,4 εκατ. το εννεάμηνο 2023 (κατά +17% στα € 27,1, εκατ. έναντι € 23,1 εκατ. το εννεάμηνο 2023 τα συγκρίσιμα). Αύξηση των Κερδών μ.φ. κατά +661% στα € 90,4 εκατ., έναντι € 11,9 εκατ. το εννεάμηνο 2023. Στα € 7,8 ανά μετοχή, έναντι € 6,7 ανά μετοχή την 30.09.2023 το NAV
Ιαν.-Σεπτέμβριος 2024: το έλλειμμα του ισοζυγίου τρεχουσών συναλλαγών αυξήθηκε κατά 1,0 δισ. ευρώ σε σχέση με την αντίστοιχη περίοδο του 2023 και διαμορφώθηκε σε 7,7 δισ. ευρώ. Στα €26 δις. το εμπορικό έλλειμμα, στα €19,6 δις. το πλεόνασμα ισοζυγίου υπηρεσιών, με τις ταξιδιωτικές εισπράξεις στα €18,6 δις. (€18 δις. πέρσι).
ATHEX headed north yesterday, in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.94% at 1,397.63 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.96%, FTSE Mid Cap: +0.97%, Banks Index: +0.81%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 85.6m, down from Wednesday’s EUR 99.9m. We expect the positive momentum to continue in ATHEX today.
Macro Headlines
Fitch Rating Sovereign Credit Review on Greece out today amc
Fitch Ratings is set to release its Sovereign Debt Review on Greece today, after the market close. As a reminder, last June, Fitch affirmed the ‘BBB-‘ Rating on Greece with stable outlook.
Company Headlines
Motor Oil Conference call highlights
During yesterday’s conference call, Motor Oil’s management said that: a) refining margins currently have rebounded after the tumble during August-September, b) repairs in the crude distillation unit is progressing, and expects to be fully restored by 3Q25e, c) the first installment from the insurance company is already approved and will be completed by 2024-end, d) the new propylene splitter facility in the refinery to be completed in 2025e, will contribute EUR 25-30m EBITDA p.a.
PPC completes the acquisition a 629MW RES portfolio in Romania
PPC completed the acquisition from Evryo Group, owned by funds managed by Macquarie Asset Management, of its RES portfolio in Romania, which comprises 629MW RES in operation, and about 145MW in pipeline assets. The agreement has a total enterprise value of approximately EUR 700m, and the portfolio will contribute an estimated EBITDA of EUR 100m p.a. upon completion. The development was expected, and the activities were included in PPC’s recent business plan for 2025-27e.
HELLENiQ ENERGY CFO comments for Capital.gr
In an interview with Capital.gr, HELLENiQ ENERGY’s CFO said that the outlook is positive for the remainder of the year, as the refining environment has improved in 4Q24. Regarding associates, the CFO stated that the Group is aiming to hold control in all its activities, adding that it is in talks for the sale of the 35% stake in DEPA to the state and also with EDISON either for the sale of the 50% stake or to gain full control.
OPAP CC highlights
During the cc management highlighted: a) OPAP’s strong cash position of EUR 525m and the strong cash conversion of operating performance, coupled with the low leverage position and low Capex requirements. b) the announced buyback program concluded with 9.6m shared purchased at an average price of EUR 15.58/share with the company now holding 3.09% of total share capital. c) the launch of a special draw promo Euro Jackpot and Tzoker extra to enhance winnability, drive revenue uplift, and a new annuity scratch ticket. d) management reported over 600k more customers during Tzoker’s Jackpot e) 35% of EBITDA margin is considered sustainable f) more UEFA leagues mean more sustainable upside for the betting category.
Fourlis announced the opening of three Foot Locker stores in Bulgaria
Fourlis announced that three new Foot Locker stores will open in December 2024, in prime commercial locations in Bulgaria. One store will open in the Mall Sofia, one in Grand Mall Varna and one in Galleria Burgas. It is reminded that Fourlis will also acquire Foot Locker’s existing operations in Greece (3 stores) and Romania (3 store).
Ideal Holdings 9M24 results out
The company posted a robust set of results, with revenues up by 208% y-o-y, to EUR 265m, setting new highs after the consolidation of Attica Department stores and the organic growth of ICT companies. On the profitability front EBITDA increased by 263% y-o-y to EUR 37.7m while Net profit increased by 661% to EUR 90.4m including one of gain of EUR 74.6m. On a comparable basis, the NAV of the group increased by 17% y-o-y to EUR 7.8/share vs. EUR 6.7/share in 9M23, while the company is now on net cash position of EUR 22.4m up by 79.7m y-o-y.
The ASE Index followed a steady upward trend yesterday, closing 0.9% higher, on a EUR 85m turnover. Banks recorded gains of 0.8%, driven by Eurobank up 2.2%, offsetting Bank of Cyprus 1.1% losses, while NBG and Alpha finished flattish. Titan continued to outperform, marking a 4.3% increase, Lamda and GEK Terna rose 2.8% and 2.4% respectively, followed by OPAP +1.8% and PPC +1.6%. Most large cap stocks finished on the green, while Cenergy was down 2.1% on the day, with Jumbo and PPA ending on the flatline. Fitch credit rating review expected today.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO
According to BoG, the balance of travel services posted a surplus of EUR 3.4bn in the period of January-September 2024, with travel receipts rising 4.1% yoy.
ENERGY SECTOR
The agreement between the Ministry of Environment and Energy, EU Commission and the European Investment Bank for the establishment of the Island Decarbonization Fund was signed yesterday. The Fund will implement investments of EUR 1.6bn, which are estimated to reach up to EUR 3.8bn in the period of 2025-2032, aiming to the green energy transition of the Greek islands. Key investments include RES, electrical interconnection and cold-ironing projects.
MOTOR OIL <MOH GA>
During conference call, management stated that the request for the first tranche of insurance c.EUR 50m has been accepted and will be disbursed by the end of the year. The construction of the 877MW CCGT with GEK TERNA has been completed, with commercial operation expected in 1Q25. The completion of acquisition of Elektor is also expected to be completed within the firs three months of 2025, highlighting the strategic importance of the project. Management also stressed that there is no plan to delay capex rollout, due to the recent fire and investment plan should progress smoothly.
OPAP <OPAP GA, OW>
During conference call, Chairman & CEO stated that with regards to Hellenic Lotteries license renewal, the company is currently at an initial stage of discussions with the Ministry of Finance, stressing that it is too early for discussions on the renewal of the core license expiring in 2030. In the online space, management stated that they are happy with the strategy in place and is not looking at any M&A activity.
PPC GROUP <PPC GA, OW>
PPC announced the completion of the acquisition of Evryo Group’s renewable energy portfolio in Romania, of up to 629MW RES capacity. The portfolio includes 600MW of operational onshore wind, 22MW of hydro, 1MW of PV as well as 6MW of battery storage. With the acquisition PPC also received 145MW of pipeline assets.
FOURLIS GROUP <FOYRK GA>
Fourlis announced the upcoming opening of the three new Foot Locker stores in Bulgaria during December 2024. The stores will be the first to be launched in the country and will be located in The Mall Sofia, Grand Mall Varna and Galleria Burgas.
TERNA ENERGY <TENERGY GA>
Reportedly, the transaction for the sale the 67% stake in Terna Energy to Masdar will be completed by end of next week. As a result, a tender offer for the minorities will follow within December.
ELVAL HALCOR <ELHA GA>
Conference call highlights: 1) Management noted that the Group’s strong performance thus far, as well as the reduction of debt and capex leave room for a higher dividend for FY24. 2) Currently the aluminium segment operates almost in full capacity, while regarding the copper segment capacity utilization stands to the upper level, following the company’s previous investments. Depending on market’s trends management will examine further capacity expansion for both segments. 3) Among the company’s biggest targets remains the improvement of working capital, through renegotiating contracts and monitoring inventories, by implementing projects in factories 4) Despite no signs of recovery in the construction sector in Europe yet, management believes that the further moderation of inflation and interest rates will propel demand higher.
Market Comment // Greek stocks continued on an upward trajectory for a second day, rising +0.94% to close at €1397.63 points, near its intraday high, in a rather stock picking mood. Trading activity dropped to c€85m, as banks represented c40% of the traded value. ELHA outshined following strong results, surging by 9.36%. Titan also recorded significant gains (+4.36%), followed by +3.4% in Viohalco and >3% in small mid-caps Kri Kri, IDEAL, EXAE and Real Consulting. Lamda, GEK Terna, AIA, Saratntis, ELPE, Eurobank and Profile also booked gaines above 2%. On the flipside, Cenergy (-2.14%) led laggards, trailed by losses >1% in Papoutsanis, Austriacard, Ellaktor, Premia and BoC. Today international markets are braced for a slightly positive opening driven by tech-stocks bounce back ahead of consumer sentiment data, with investors also keeping a wary eye on the geopolitical situation.
Economy // Fitch is set to update its credit rating assessment for Greece this evening. As a reminder, the agency rates Greece at BBB- with a stable outlook. Following a raise of the outlook to “positive” by S&P, we believe there may be a possibility for a similar revision of the outlook by Fitch. Both agencies currently classify Greece within investment grade territory.
Motor Oil // In the conference call that followed Q3’24 results, mgt announced that the group has received approval from insurance for the first tranche of €50mn, to be received by year-end. Moreover, mgt guided for Helector deal completion and Komotini CCGT commercial operation by Q1’25.
PPC // The Group announced the completion of the acquisition of Evryo Group’s 629MW of RES portfolio in Romania. The transaction, which was initially announced in August of this year, is valued at c€700mn, with the portfolio’s estimated EBITDA contribution estimated at €100mn.
Fourlis // Fourlis announced plans to open three new Foot Locker (FL) stores in Bulgaria by the end of December 2024. This expansion is part of Fourlis’ licensing agreement with FL, which grants the group exclusive rights to the brand in 8 SEE countries, namely Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, and Montenegro. As a reminder, Fourlis has also set forth plans to acquire all existing FL stores and e-commerce operations in Greece and Romania.
ADMIE Holding // The deal for the sale of 20% of Ariadne Interconnection to StateGrid was signed yesterday.
Terna Energy – GEK Terna // According press, the acquisition of 67% of Terna Energy by Masdar will be completed by next week. Following the completion of the deal, the process required for the Mandatory Tender Offer will commence.
Kri-Kri // Kri-Kri is scheduled to release its 9M’24 results on Tuesday, 26th November, after market close. We expect revenues to increase by c16% yoy, driven by sustained volume growth for yogurt in international markets. We anticipate EBIT of €37.9m, broadly flat compared to the previous year and net profit of €36.4m (+20.5% yoy). We expect Q3 results to validate that the recently updated FY’24 EBIT guidance of €39.2mn is easily attainable.
Tourism // Tourism receipts in the 9-mth period grew by 4% yoy to €18.76bn, with inbound tourism traffic up 9.3% in the same period. September tourism revenues alone grew 8% (reversing the -1.8% seen in August) led by an increase in receipts from Germany and the U.S.
Quest // In a confident call yesterday, Quest mgt reiterated guidance for mild growth in both the top and bottom line in 2024, driven by solid execution, with EBITDA growth in the FY’24 sustained at 9-month levels, namely +9% yoy (or c€91m). That said, we remain confident with our 2024e EBITDA forecast for €90m, ahead of the seasonally strong Q4 period.
Thrace Plastics // Thrace will release 9M’24 results on Monday 25th November, pre-market opening. Following on mgt guidance for flattish 9M’24 EBITDA, we forecast EBITDA at €36.8m (-0.6% yoy), on sales growth of 4.3% (€281m), with the latter primarily driven by volume growth as pricing/mix remains tough. Against this background, we calculate Q3’24 EBITDA of €12.3m (-5% yoy) on +6% yoy revenue growth. Thrace announced an interim dividend distribution of €0.068/share (gross) corresponding to a dividend yield of c1.7%. The respective dates (ex-div etc.) will be released in a separate announcement.
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
