Από τα γραφεία των Χρηματιστών (22.02.2024)

*ΚΥΚΛΟΣ Χρηματιστηριακή Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Υ.* (http://www.cyclos.gr/)

Υποχώρηση κατά 0,29% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός ∆είκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1420,28 µονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα 121,3 εκ. ευρώ. Οι αγοραστές τήρησαν στάση αναµονής µε αποτέλεσµα οι πωλητές να αναλάβουν την υπεροπλία οδηγώντας το Γ.∆. σε αδιάλειπτα σε αρνητικό έδαφος. Με τις τράπεζες και άλλους δεικτοβαρείς τίτλους να ρευστοποιούνται µε στόχο την καταγραφή κερδών, οι δεικτοβαρείς µετοχές που αντιστάθηκαν (ΜΟΗ, ΕΛΠΕ, ∆ΑΑ, ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ) πέτυχαν στις δηµοπρασίες µερική µείωση των απωλειών. Με το ελληνικό χρηµατιστήριο να µη συγχρονίζεται µε τις ανοδικά κινούµενες ευρωπαϊκές αγορές. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαµορφώνονταν στο 3,326%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (0,62%) κατέγραψε απώλειες µε τη Eurobank (-1,30%) να υποαποδίδει. Απώλειες ακόµη κατέγραψε η ∆ΕΗ (-1,24%), ο ΟΤΕ (-1,84%), ο Μυτιληναίος (-1,13%), ο Α∆ΜΗΕ (-2,49%), ο Ελλάκτωρ (-1,28%), η Lamda (-0,58%) αλλά και η ΕΧΑΕ (-0,91%) από τη µεσαία κεφαλαιοποίηση. Στον αντίποδα, κέρδη κατέγραψε η ΜΟΗ (+1,25%), ο ∆ΑΑ (+1,05%), το Jumbo (+0,50%), η ΕΕΕ (+0,49%), η ΓΕΚΤΕΡΝΑ (+0,69%), η Τενέργα (0,12%), η Aegean (+0,32%) και η Autohellas (+0,15%). Απολογιστικά, 41 µετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 60 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Ριψοκίνδυνο εγχείρηµα η πρόωρη χαλάρωση της νοµισµατικής πολιτικής εκτιµούν οι αξιωµατούχοι της Federal που ζητούν µεγαλύτερη βεβαιότητα για την υποχώρηση του πληθωρισµού πριν αποφασίσουν επιτοκιακές µειώσεις. Το πρωί ο ΟΤΕ ανακοινώνει τα ετήσια µεγέθη του. Στις 1415 µονάδες η πλησιέστερη στήριξη για το Γ.∆.

Μνηµόνιο συνεργασίας Eurolife FFH- LTIMindtree για τη δηµιουργία Gen AI και Digital Hubs σε Ευρώπη και Ινδία. Η συνεργασία θα επιτρέψει την υιοθέτηση ψηφιακών λύσεων και τεχνολογίας τεχνητής νοηµοσύνης, σε µεγάλη κλίµακα, στον ασφαλιστικό, τραπεζικό, ναυτιλιακό και κατασκευαστικό κλάδο.

Εθνική Τράπεζα: 12 Μαρτίου η ανακοίνωση αποτελεσµάτων 2023.

Κλειδώνει η πώληση του 27% της Πειραιώς από το ΤΧΣ. Στην πώληση του συνόλου των µετοχών της Πειραιώς, ήτοι του 27% που κατέχει το ΤΧΣ προσανατολίζεται η κυβέρνηση.

Τιµή-στόχο τα €13,6 δίνει για την Κρι Κρι η Eurobank Equities. Ξεκινά κάλυψη του τίτλου δίνοντας σύσταση «αγορά».

Απόδοση 3,83% στα 6µηνα έντοκα που δηµοπράτησε ο Ο∆∆ΗΧ. Υποβλήθηκαν συνολικές προσφορές ύψους 1.030 εκατοµµυρίων ευρώ, που υπερκάλυψαν το ζητούµενο ποσό κατά 1,65 φορές.

Τράπεζες: «Φρένο» SSM στις υπερβολικές προσδοκίες για µέρισµα. Υπενθύµιση της υψηλής βαρύτητας DTC στα εποπτικά κεφάλαια, το άνοιγµα του θέµατος απλήρωτων κρατικών εγγυήσεων και το έµµεσο µήνυµα σε διοικήσεις για το payout ratio 2025-26. ∆εν προκύπτουν προσκόµµατα για το φετινό µέρισµα.

Ρεκόρ ταξιδιωτικής κίνησης το 2023 µε 32,73 εκατ. τουρίστες από 31,34 εκ. το 2019.

 
*Optima bank Research (https://www.optimabank.gr)
ATHEX headed south yesterday after three positive sessions, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 0.29% at 1,420.28 units, (FTSE Large Cap: -0.41%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.83%, Banks Index: -0.62%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 119.6m, up from Tuesday’s EUR 116.3m. We expect ATHEX to move in line with the European stock markets, with OTE in the spotlight.

Macro Headlines

6-month T-bill yield up

The Greek State raised EUR 812.5m yesterday from the issuance of 26week T-bills. In more detail, the total amount auctioned was EUR 625m, while total bids reached EUR 1,030m (1.65x coverage ratio vs. 1.78x in November) for an interest rate of 3.83% (vs. 3.77% in the previous auction).

Sector Headlines

SSM conservative on dividend payouts-Press

Reportedly (naftemporiki), SSM has completed the meetings with systemic banks and has asked to follow a conservative dividend policy due to their high DTCs and div. payouts not to exceed 25%-30% of net profits, which is in line with their announced div. policies (10%-30% div. payouts) for 2023. We reiterate our Buy ratings on the four systemic banks.

Inbound travelers and travel receipts up in December (BoG)

According to the BoG, travel receipts in December 2023 rose by 41.5% y-o-y to EUR 344m, standing also higher by 16.9% vs. the respective month in 2019, while in January-December 2023, travel receipts totalled EUR 20,460m, up by 15.7% y-o-y (and up by 12.5% when compared to the respective period in 2019). The number of inbound travelers in December 2023 rose by 32.0% y-o-y to 766k, while in January-December 2023, the number of inbound travelers soared by 17.6% y-o-y to 32,735k (standing also higher by 4.4% compared to 2019). Finally, the average spending per traveler in December stood at EUR 435, up by 6.3% y-o-y, while in the January-December period the average spending per traveler dropped by 2.7% y-o-y to EUR 603.

Company Headlines

OTE | 4Q/FY2023 results out today before the market opening

OTE is set to release 4Q/FY2023 results today, before market opening and management will host a conference call at 17:00 Athens/ 15:00 London Time. We project FY2023 group revenues of EUR of EUR 3,451m (-0.1% y-o-y), in line with consensus estimate, adj. EBITDA after leases of EUR 1,339m (-0.7% y-o-y) and net profit for the year to shape at EUR 513.0m (+32% y-o-y), 4% lower than consensus estimate of EUR 533.0m. Finally, we estimate a dividend of EUR 0.64/share (+8% y-o-y), slightly lower than consensus estimate of EUR 0.67 per share, implying a gross dividend yield of 4.6%.

PPC denies any discussion or agreement for NOVA

PPC, in response to a relevant question by the HCMC with regards to press articles indicating an agreement for the acquisition of the telecommunications company “Nova”, officially denied that it has entered into any relevant discussion or agreement, adding that it continues the development of a national fiber optics grid, through the existing infrastructure of the Distribution Network in Greece, creating value for its shareholders.

Aegean Airlines considers the entrance in the market of India (press)

According to Kathimerini, Aegean Airlines is considering the entrance in the airline market of India, initially through a partnership.

National Bank of Greece 4Q/FY2023 results out on 12 March

National Bank of Greece will announce 4Q23/FY2023 results on Tuesday 12 March, before market opening. Management will host a CC on the same day at 10:30 Athens/08:30 London Time.

Hellenic Bank to announce 4Q/FY2023 results tomorrow

Hellenic Bank is scheduled to announce 4Q/FY2023 results tomorrow, before market opening.

 
*Eurobank Equities (https://www.eurobankequities.gr)

Market Comment // Greek stocks lost ground on Wednesday as profit taking prevailed throughout the session, with the benchmark index retreating -0.29%. Trading activity increased to c€120m, with banks representing c53% of the total traded value. Among laggards, mid-caps IDEAL and Intracom were down more than 3%, trailed by significant losses in ELHA (-2.65%) and ADMIE (-2.49%), and a >1% decline in OTE, Viohalco, Eurobank, Ellaktor, Cenergy, PPC and Mytilineos. On the positive side, Kri-Kri, Profile, Quest, MOH, AIA and PPA were among the few stocks up by >1%. Today markets look poised for a robust opening on momentum provided by the strong Nvidia results announced yesterday.

OTE // Q4/FY23 results today pre-market open. We expect EBITDAaL to finally inflect in Q4 given the easy comps (EEe €341m, +2.7% yoy following -1.5% in 9M), but all eyes will be on the shareholder remuneration policy. Following €425m announced in 2023 (following €500m distributed in 2022), we argue that anything below €450m in terms of shareholder returns is not likely to support a further re-rating of the shares. We caveat that the focus will be on total returns (EEe €1.15) rather than the dividend per se (EE €0.60).

Telecoms // BC Partners reportedly mulling sale of United Group, a scenario that has triggered press speculation regarding the future of Nova in Greece. Press reports suggest that interested parties for UG might be Etisalat or Saudi Telecom. In case individual assets were to be sold separately, the price tag for Nova would be 7-8x EV/EBITDA as per Kathimerini.

PPC // In response to a relevant inquiry by the HCMC, PPC clarified that it has not engaged in discussions or agreements for the acquisition of the telecommunications company “Nova,” refuting recent press articles.

Piraeus Bank // Bloomberg reiterates the message echoed by other press reports recently, namely that the Greek govt is leaning towards selling the entire 27% stake of HFSF in Piraeus Bank as soon as early March, citing a favorable investment climate and strong demand during the preparatory stages, sufficient to absorb all the shares that will be offered.

Kri-Kri: Flavorful growth – initiate with a Buy // We build further on our SME research program funded by the EBRD, initiating coverage on Kri-Kri (KRI), a leading Greek yogurt and ice cream producer with rising international footprint (c48% of sales). Strong branded positioning, dominance in local private label and proximity to raw materials are key pillars of the business model, with yogurt being the main value driver (c79% of sales). KRI has a strong track record of revenue growth (c16% CAGR since 2015) which continued in 2023e (c24%), as 2-digit volume growth was further propelled by pricing. In 2024e, we expect sales growth to settle at 9% (volume-led) as pricing rolls off and see a high single-digit top line growth trajectory as sustainable in the coming years. On the profit front, 2023e EBIT is set to shoot up to €41m and to fall modestly to €35m in 2024e as pricing rolls off, but this constitutes a material re-set at 2x 2019 levels. Post 2024e, we see a return to a c8-11% profit growth algorithm, with EBIT margins settling at c15% over 2024-26e. Consistent robust cash flow generation (>70% of EBITDA converted into OCF), more than enough to fund capex, has led KRI to an ungeared balance sheet (€9m net cash), thus paving the way for a compelling dividend policy (c4% yield) while offering optionality regarding balance sheet deployment. Valuation-wise, the stock is still at <8x 2024e EV/EBITDA despite the big rally in the last year, at >25% discount vs food manufacturing and dairy peers despite offering a superior growth profile and enjoying a healthier balance sheet. Our valuation is based on a DCF (9.7% WACC) and yields a 12m PT of €13.60 per share, effectively valuing the group at c9x 2025e EV/EBITDA, still at c15% discount vs. dairy peers. Our research report is freely available here.

Banks // According to Kathimerini, Banks are implementing measures to reduce interest rates on new mortgage loans and extend the interest rate freeze for existing loans through the end of 2024, aiming to stimulate borrowing and support current borrowers. The variable interest rate for existing loans will be maintained at 2.70%-2.80% plus spread. For new mortgages, especially those with long-term fixed rates spanning 20 to 30 years, banks are expected to lower rates from 4.60%-5.10% currently to a more attractive range of 4.3%-4.9%.

Banks // According to euro2day, starting from 2025, the SSM warned that it plans to incorporate in its capital calculations the impact from provisions related to overdue state-guaranteed loans. This move prompts the government to tackle the issue of nearly €1bn in unpaid guarantees.

GEK Terna – Terna Energy // In response to relevant press reports, both GEK Terna and Terna Energy reiterated that despite ongoing interest from major international investors, there has not been any development to be announced.

 

* Tα παραπάνω σχόλια μπορείτε να τα διαβάσετε πρώτοι στο viber του mikrometoxos.gr

ΓΙΝΕΤΕ ΜΕΛΟΣ ΕΔΩ

ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.