Για έξι σερί χρονιές η Piraeus Securities δίνει ραντεβού για 20 εισηγμένες, στο Παρίσι. AEGEAN, AIA, ADMIE, ALPHA BANK, CENERGY, FOURLIS, HELL. ENERGY, EXAE, IDEAL, KRI-KRI, MOTOR OIL, MΕTLEN, NATIONAL BANK, OPAP, OPTIMA, PPC, PIRAEUS BANK, SARANTIS, TITAN και GEKTERNA οι εταιρείες που θα συμμετάσχουν.
ATHEX headed north yesterday for a 6th session in a row and in line with the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 0.56% at 1,539.48 units (FTSE Large Cap: +0.53%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.15%, Banks Index: +0.25%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 109.6m, down from Monday’s EUR 155.7m. We expect some profit taking in ATHEX today, after the recent rally.
Macro Headlines
Council approves fiscal expenditure paths for Greece and 20 member states
The Council of the EU greenlighted the net expenditure paths and medium-term fiscal-structural plans of Greece and 20 countries.
Sector Headlines
BoG Governor expects depo rate close to 2.0% in 2025
In an interview to Naftemporiki, the Governor of Bank of Greece stated that he expects the ECB deposit facility rate to narrow close to 2.0% in 2025 from 3.0% in 2024. He also cited that if the new US government imposes a 10% tax on EU products, then the EU GDP would shrink by 0.5%-1.0% over a two-year horizon.
Company Headlines
Eurobank issued new Tier II note
Reportedly (Bloomberg), Eurobank issued a new subordinated Tier II note of EUR 400.0m at a coupon of 4.25% and a maturity of ten years, callable at five. The issue oversubscribed by >4x as demand exceeded EUR 1.7bn. Recall that Eurobank issued a EUR 300m subordinated Tier II note on 19 January 2024 at a coupon of 6.25%. On top of that, Eurobank offered to exchange Hellenic Bank’s outstanding EUR 200m Tier 2 subordinated Notes due 14 Jun. 2033 for euro denominated fixed rate reset tier 2 subordinated instruments issued by Eurobank.
Ministry of Environment and Energy approves Motor Oils FSRU
Motor Oil reportedly got the approval from the Ministry of Environment and Energy for the new FSRU in Corinth with a capacity of up to 210,000m3, for which the company will make the final decision for the go ahead of the investment in February.
IPTO (ADMIE) launches the EUR 1.7bn tender process for the interconnection of the Greek islands (press)
According to Capital.gr, IPTO (the Greek power transmission operator, in which ADMIE Holding participates with 51%) called Cenergy, Prysmian and Nexans to submit their binding offers for the 2nd phase of the tender for the submarine cables of the interconnections with the Dodecanese and the Northeastern Aegean islands, with an initial budget EUR 1.7bn (plus VAT).
Public offer for ALTER EGO IPO ends today
The subscription period for the up to EUR 57m IPO of ALTER EGO with the issuance of 14,249,000 new shares at a Price range of EUR 3.70-4/share and the determination of the issuance price is scheduled for today, while the commencement of trading of all shares is expected on 27 January.
Bank of Cyprus 2024 results out on 18 February 2025
Bank of Cyprus announced that it will report FY2024 results on Tuesday 18 February, before the opening of ATHEX and CSE.
CVC to extend its stake in PPC (press)
According to Newmoney, CVC aims at extending its participation in PPCs share capital to 15% from 10% currently.
Papoutsanis sales announcement 2024
The company announced that its FY24 sales reached EUR 66.2m, recording an increase of 6.3% y-o-y, with exports covering 55% of the total turnover. Regarding activity by sector Branded products recorded 17% growth vs. FY23 driven by Arkadi brand (+69% y-o-y), other brands (+6% y-o-y) and exports (+22% y-o-y). Hotel product sales increased by +3.5% y-o-y in FY24 covering the 1H24 downward trend, which was due to a high base in the previous year. In contrast, sales of third-party products decreased by 2.8% vs. FY23, covering the -10% y-o-y trend of 1H24, following the launch of a partnership with a major multinational. Finally, industrial soap sales increased by 14% y-o-y, driven by the expansion of partnerships and product ranges. Management estimates that FY25 sales will record double-digit sales growth, as a result of both the expansion of existing and the launch of significant new partnerships as well as the further strengthening of sales of branded products.
Jumbo Share buyback
The company announced that it purchased on 20 January, 42,000 own shares at an average price of EUR 25.173. The company now holds 1,317,580 shares or 0.97% of the total share capital.
The market sustained the 1,530 mark, following a boost during mid-session, finishing at +0.4% on a relatively low EUR 85m turnover. The banking sector ended just above the flatline (+0.2%), with Eurobank gaining momentum, rising 1%, while all other major banks ended flat. On non-financials, Aegean stood out, recording 5.4% gains, PPA and Jumbo recorded a strong performance for the second consecutive day, up 3.9% and 2.2% respectively, Titan rose 1.8%, followed by Metlen +1.1%, on top of 2.8% gains on Monday. Among large-cap underperformers, Cenergy recorded the biggest drop down 1.4%, Lamda lost 0.8%, whereas Motor Oil and OPAP were down a modest c.0.5%.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
TRADING SNAPSHOT
The market sustained the 1,530 mark, following a boost during mid-session, finishing at +0.4% on a relatively low EUR 85m turnover. The banking sector ended just above the flatline (+0.2%), with Eurobank gaining momentum, rising 1%, while all other major banks ended flat. On non-financials, Aegean stood out, recording 5.4% gains, PPA and Jumbo recorded a strong performance for the second consecutive day, up 3.9% and 2.2% respectively, Titan rose 1.8%, followed by Metlen +1.1%, on top of 2.8% gains on Monday. Among large-cap underperformers, Cenergy recorded the biggest drop down 1.4%, Lamda lost 0.8%, whereas Motor Oil and OPAP were down a modest c.0.5%.
MACRO
*According to BoG, the balance of travel services recorded a surplus of EUR 18.8bn in the period of January to November 2024 vs EUR18bn in the corresponding period of 2023, with travel receipts rising 4.9% yoy to EUR 21.3bn.
**Based on BoG data, the central government cash balance posted a surplus of EUR 1bn in the period of January to December 2024, compared to a EUR 2.7m deficit in the corresponding period of 2023. Moreover, the primary surpus of the central government reached EUR 8bn in the period vs EUR 3.7bn in January-November 2023.
PAPOUTSANIS <PAP GA>
Papoutsanis reported its FY24 revenue, with sales reaching EUR 66.2m, up 6.3% yoy, vs EUR 68.3m on our estimates, due to the delay of a new important partnership under the third-party products division. On a segmental basis, the own brands category grew by a strong 17% yoy, driven by the ARKADI brand sales, gaining 69% yoy, with exports up 22% yoy, exceeding our estimates for a 15% yoy increase. Excluding ARKADI, Papoutsanis own brands sales rose a modest 6% yoy, highlighting the brand’s strong potential following its rebranding and expansion into new categories. Moreover, the hotel amenities division recorded a 3.5% yoy advance (vs 1% yoy on our estimates), mainly supported by PAPOUTSANIS branded hotel products (+9% yoy), while third party products marked a 2.8% yoy drop. The decline was driven by a weak performance in 1H24 (-10% yoy), due to weaker demand in foreign markets, while activity in the second half of the year picked up following the launch of a partnership with a major multinational, despite a delay in the commencement of the agreement. Regarding specialty soap bases, sales grew at a 14% yoy pace compared to 7% yoy on our numbers, as the company continues to expand its client base and products. Management anticipates a double-digit sales growth in 2025E as the new significant partnerships under the third-party segment will finally be in full swing and the further strengthening branded products sales.
EUROBANK <EUROB GA, OW>
Eurobank tapped the market with a Tier II bond, initially set at EUR 400m but upsized to EUR 600m to include a swap with a bond from Hellenic Bank. Reportedly, the yield will be close to 4.5% and the offers reached EUR 1.7bn.
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCHGR GA, OW>
Bank of Cyprus announced that its FY24 results will be released on February 18th.
ATHENS WATER <EYDAP GA>
EYDAP announced the merger by absorption of HRADF, which directly held 11.33% of the company, by GROWTHFUND (100% owned by the Greek State). As a result, the Greek State continues to own 50% of EYDAP directly and 11.33% indirectly, unchanged from prior to the merger.
Market Comment // The Greek market sustained its strong upward momentum on Tuesday, advancing for the sixth consecutive session (+0.56%) to close at 1,539.48 points, which is a new multi-year high. Although trading activity continued to weaken, turnover remained above the €100mn threshold, settling at €110mn. Aegean Airlines led gainers surging 5.8%, followed by Piraeus Port Authority (+4.0%), Titan Cement (+3.4%), and Autohellas (+3.3%). Other notable performers included Jumbo (+2.2%), Profile (+1.7%), Papoutsanis (+1.6%), Intralot (+1.5%), Metlen (+1.1%), and Eurobank (+1.1%). On the downside, Thessaloniki Port Authority lost 2.4%, with Cenergy (-1.4%), Viohalco (-1.2%), Performance (-1.1%), and OPAP (-1.1%) also finishing in the red. EU futures indicate a positive opening today as investors reassess the potential impact of the new US administration’s policies in the coming months.
Alter Ego Media (AEM) // IPO running until today, with AEM aiming to raise up to €57mn. The price range has been set at €3.7–4 per share, with press reports referring to a 5x oversubscription in the first two days.
PPC // As per HEDNO submission for the regulatory period 2025-2029 (which was published in November and reflected in our latest Greek Energy sector update), HEDNO’s RAB is set to grow from €3.4bn in 2024 to €4.6bn by 2028 (8% 4Y CAGR), while allowed revenue is set to increase from €805mn in 2024 to €1.17bn in 2028 (10% 4Y CAGR). Regarding the regulated return, HEDNO has requested a WACC of 8.2%, up from 7.66% previously.
ADMIE – Cenergy // IPTO has entered the final phase of a €1.717bn (plus VAT) tender for a 6-year framework to establish subsea interconnections linking the Dodecanese islands and the Northeast Aegean islands to the mainland. Fulgor (Cenergy), Nexans, and Prysmian have been invited to submit binding offers, with the contract set to be awarded based on financial criteria.
Eurobank // As part of its MREL strategy, Eurobank successfully issued a €400mn Tier II bond with a 10.25-year maturity, callable after 5 years. The coupon was set at 4.25%, while the offering was >5x oversubscribed. Eurobank simultaneously announced an exchange of outstanding €200mn Tier 2 bonds (coupon 10.25%, due June 2033) of Hellenic Bank, with a call date of March 14, 2028.
OTE-Telecoms // Sale of Nova by BC Partners entering final stage according to Kathimerini, with likely completion in Q1’25. As per previous press reports, assuming BC were to divest assets individually, Nova could be valued near €1.5-2bn, namely c7x EV/EBITDA. In terms of market dynamics, a new ownership of Nova (especially cash rich) might introduce fresh strategies, competitive pricing, and expanded service offerings, potentially intensifying market competition.
Papoutsanis // PAP released its FY’24 trading update, with the year ending with 6.3% sales growth and revenues shaping at €66.2m, just €1.4m below our estimates. Q4 run rates stayed healthy at +12.1%, following +17.4% in Q3. Growth during the year was driven mainly by branded product sales (+17% yoy) which accounted for approximately 30% of total sales in 2024. Mgt guided for double-digit growth in FY’25, which is in symphony with our implied +14% forecast.
Thrace Plastics // Ex div tomorrow, for an interim dividend of €0.0699/share (€0.6647/share net, c1.7% div. yield). Payment will commence on Wednesday January 29th.