Άνοδο κατά 1,31% κατέγραψε ο Γενικός Δείκτης του Χ.Α. στη χτεσινή συνεδρίαση κλείνοντας στις 1384,60 μονάδες. Παράλληλα, η αξία των συναλλαγών διαμορφώθηκε στα 100,3 εκ. ευρώ. Οι αγοραστές ξεκίνησαν με αποφασιστικότητα με στόχο της άμεσης απόκτησης υπεροπλίας ώστε να αντιρροπήσουν μέρος της δυσμενούς χθεσινής εικόνα γενικευμένου sell-off αλλά και των 5 συνεχόμενων πτωτικών συνεδριάσεων με -4,49% για το ΓΔ και – 6,72% για τις τράπεζες. Με οδηγό τον τραπεζικό κλάδο και το σύνολο των blue chips διατήρησαν το ΓΔ μόνο σε θετικό έδαφος και πέτυχαν να καταγραφεί ενδοσυνεδριακή υψηλό στις 1389 μονάδες λίγο μετά τις 2μμ. Μέχρι το κλείσιμο, ο ΓΔ διατηρήθηκε στα ίδια περίπου επίπεδα με μικρές απώλειες στις δημοπρασίες. Την ίδια ώρα, οι αποδόσεις των 10ετών τίτλων διαμορφώνονταν στο 3,224%. Έτσι, ο τραπεζικός κλάδος (+1,64%) κατέγραψε κέρδη με την Πειραιώς (+2,69%) να υπεραποδίδει. Κέρδη ακόμη κατέγραψε ο ΟΠΑΠ (+1,21%), ο ΟΤΕ (+2,19%), ο Μυτιληναίος (+1,76%), η Aegean (+2,22%), η Cenergy (+3,31%), ο Τιτάν (+4,41%), ο Σαράντης (+1,93%), η Lamda (+1,72%), η Βιοχάλκο (+0,91%) και η ΔΕΗ (+0,78%). Στον αντίποδα, απώλειες κατέγραψε η ΕΛΧΑ (+0,12%) και η Αττικής (-30%). Απολογιστικά, 78 μετοχές κατέγραψαν κέρδη έναντι 19 εκείνων που υποχώρησαν. Ο όμιλος Ideal ανακοινώνει σήμερα τα αποτελέσματα για το 9μηνο. H UBS προβλέπει ισχυρή αύξηση του ΑΕΠ κατά 2,8% και μείωση του δημόσιου χρέους στο 140% του ΑΕΠ έως το 2026. Η αναβάθμιση της στήριξης στις 1389 μονάδες του ΓΔ διαμορφώνει προϋποθέσεις για συνέχιση της ανοδικής κίνησης στη σημερινή συνεδρίαση.
ATHEX headed north yesterday after 5 consecutive sessions with losses, outperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index rose by 1.31% at 1,384.60 units (FTSE Large Cap: +1.42%, FTSE Mid Cap: +1.00%, Banks Index: +1.64%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 99.9m, down from Tuesday’s EUR 159.5m. We expect ATHEX to move higher today with Optima bank, Motor Oil and OPAP in the spotlight.
Market Headlines
FTSE ATHEX large cap semi-annual review
In the semi-annual index review of the ATHEX, Optima bank is added and Autohellas is removed from in the FTSE/ATHEX large cap index, CENERGY’s investability weight in the FTSE/Large cap index increases to 29% (from 20% previously), NOVAL Property and Autohellas added in the FTSE/ATHEX Mid cap index, replacing Optima bank and Thessaloniki water & sewage. All changes are effective from the session on 23 December.
Macro Headlines
Greek Draft Budget for 2025e sees GDP growth of 2.3% for 2025e (press)
The Greek Finance minister submitted yesterday the draft budget to the Greek Parliament, which expects GDP growth at 2.2% and 2.3% for 2024e and 2025e respectively, primary surplus of 2.5% and 2.4% and deficit of the general government at 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. Additionally, the Debt/GDP ratio is expected to decline from 163.9% in 2023 to 154% in 2024e and 147.5% in 2025e, harmonized Inflation to drop to 2.8% in 2024e and 2.1% in 2025e (from 4.2% in 2023) and unemployment to further drop to 8.7% and 8.2% in 2024e/25e (from 9.4% in 2023).
Current account deficit widens in September (BoG)
According to BoG provisional data, Greece’s current account balance in September 2024 recorded a deficit of 316.5m, vs. a deficit of 260.5m in the same period a year ago, due to the deterioration of the balance of goods which was partly offset by an improvement of the surplus of the services and the primary income account balances. Additionally, in the 9M24 period, the current account deficit widened by EUR 1,046m and stood at EUR 7,666m. Finally, travel receipts in September 2024 stood at EUR 3,579m, up by 7.9% y-o-y, while in the Jan-September 2024 period, travel receipts rose by 4.1% y-o-y to EUR 18,758m.
Comment: The 7.9% higher travel receipts during the month were driven by the increased by 6.6% international tourist flows during the month, and to lesser extent by the c.1.2% higher spending per traveller during the month. However, current account deficit widened y-o-y in September and also 9M24, mainly due to the deterioration of the goods basket, on lower y-o-y exports and higher y-o-y imports.
Greece taps additional EUR 250m through the 2034 Bond
PDMA successfully raised yesterday EUR 250m with the reopening of the on-the run 10-year bond with 3.375% coupon rate, at a final yield of 3.16%, with total amounts offered reaching 957m, at a coverage ratio of 3.83.
Industrial Turnover index down by 7.9% in September (ELSTAT)
ELSTAT has announced that Greece’s Turnover Index in Industry (both domestic and non-domestic market) decreased by 7.9% y-o-y in September 2024 compared to a decrease of 5.3% y-o-y in September 2023 while increased by 5.6% m-o-m. The average Turnover Index in Industry in the October 2023-September 2024 period increased by 1.1% y-o-y compared to a 1.2% y-o-y rise in the respective October 2022-September 2023 period.
Company Headlines
MOH || Under Review | CP: 19.25 | TP: U/R
3Q24 results review | Solid quarter, despite the weak refining environment and the impact from the fire on the refinery; Bottom line above consensus and Optima due to increased contribution from associates, derivative gains and interest income
Facts: Motor Oil reported 3Q24 “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 198m (-63.2% YoY, -2.9% vs. consensus, +1.0% vs. our estimate) and “adjusted” net profits of EUR 114m (41.9% above our call and +23.9% vs. Consensus). Recording inventory losses of EUR 68m compared to EUR 85m profits in 3Q23, the company reported IFRS EBITDA of EUR 130m compared to EUR 623m in 3Q23 and IFRS net losses (including EUR 202m solidarity tax) of EUR 138m compared to net profit of EUR 441m in 3Q23. FCF in 9M24 was negative at EUR 65m, due to the last tranche of the previous extra tax on the refineries, the EUR 125m cash payment for the acquisition of the remainder 25% of ANEMOS, adverse WC movement of EUR 336m and EUR 155m dividend payments, hence Net Debt was up by EUR 318m y-t-d to EUR 1.84bn. It is reminded that Motor Oil has already declared an interim DPS of EUR 0.30 (DY: 1.6%, ex-date: 23 December). Management will hold a conference call today at 17:30 local time (Greek participants: +30 211 180 2000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, USA: +1 516 447 5632).
Parent (mainly refining): Operating performance in 3Q24 was marked by the weak refining environment, hence MOH’s “clean” refining margin in 3Q24 shaped at USD 9.4/bbl, from USD 14.6/bbl in 2Q24 and the extraordinary USD 21.4/bbl in 3Q23, outperforming benchmark by USD 2.3/bbl (vs. outperformance of USD 4.9/bbl in 3Q23). Refining sales volume was negatively affected by the fire in the distillation unit, down by 9% YoY (no maintenance took place in the quarter) to 3.04m tons and trading sales volume was also weaker, down by 45% y-o-y to 0.32m tons, resulting in total sales of 3.36m tons, exhibiting a 14% y-o-y decrease. Breaking down 3Q24 sales to geographic markets, export sales were weaker, down by 24% y-o-y to 2.19m tons, domestic sales were up by 19.1% y-o-y to 691k tons and bunkering/aviation demand continued to improve, up by 5.7% y-o-y to 481k tons. All in, “adjusted” EBITDA from the refinery operations stood at EUR 125m from EUR 463m in 3Q23. Finally, the refining division recorded a EUR 60m inventory loss (from EUR 80m inventory gain last year).
Marketing: Marketing performance was stronger during the quarter, with increased Jet fuel, Gasoline and Diesel demand (total domestic up by 8.9% y-o-y) which more than offset the weaker heating oil demand. That said, marketing contributed EUR 45m to group “adjusted” EBITDA, 17% of which from the international network vs. EUR 54m in 3Q23.
Power & Gas & other: Power & Gas EBITDA in 3Q24 dropped to EUR 22m (from EUR 25m a year ago), driven by the weaker contribution from NRG and the lower by 14.5% y-o-y RES output, despite the increased installed capacity of 839MW (from 772MW in 3Q23).
Below the EBITDA line: Accounting for higher depreciation of EUR 66m (vs. EUR 59m a year ago), net financials expenses of EUR 13m (aided by gains from derivatives and also interest income), flattish y-o-y, and EUR 21m income from associates in 3Q24 (from EUR 11m income in 3Q23), IFRS and Adjusted Net profits shaped at EUR -139m (including the EUR 202m extra tax) and EUR 114m respectively FCF in 9M24 was negative at EUR 65m, due to the last tranche of the previous extra tax on the refineries, the EUR 125m cash payment for the acquisition of the remainder 25% of ANEMOS, adverse WC movement of EUR 336m and EUR 155m dividend payments, hence Net Debt was up by EUR 318m y-t-d to EUR 1.84bn.
2030 Targets-confirmed compared to a year ago: The company also updated its strategic priorities for 2030, which in a nutshell envisage a) RES installed capacity of 1.6GW by 2027e, >2GW by 2030e (from 872MW currently), b) EBITDA from MORE (mainly RES and NRG) of>EUR 250m (from ~EUR 100m currently), c) installation of >4,000 EV charging stations (from 1,550 currently) d) existing backlog in the environment and waste management business at EUR 110m, market opportunities ~EUR 5bn, e) polypropylene production unit with 160.000 ton capacity to be completed in 2025 and d) >40% EBITDA share from non-fossil operations.
Conclusion: Resilient set of results for Motor Oil, taking into account the sharp correction of the refinery environment and the lower output due to the fire damaged CDU, which were to some extent offset by the unique qualities of the refinery (Nelson Index at 12.61) coupled with the recent processing capacity upgrade to 200k bbl/day. Following however the recent deterioration of the outlook of the refining environment and also the fire in the refinery, we are setting Motor Oil under review, and we will soon revert with updated estimates and Target Price.
OPAP || BUY | CP: EUR 15.03 | TP: EUR 19.30
3Q24 Results Review: Robust 3Q24 performance, above our call
Facts: OPAP released strong 3Q24 results, above our estimates. In particular, revenues came in at EUR 565.8m, up by 17.6% y-o-y and slightly above Optima, recurring EBITDA reached EUR 213.2m (beating our call, +23.8% YoY), and recurring net profits of EUR 126.2m (beating our call, 21.5% YoY). Operating expenses decreased by 12.2% y-o-y in 3Q24, confirming management’s commitment for cost normalization within the 2H24 and increased its EBITDA margin to 37.7%, by 190bps y-o-y. The company will hold a conference call today at 16:00 Athens time (Greek participants: +30 211 180 2000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632).
Analysis: Turning to segmental performance, the improved Betting, Lottery and online casino performance drove the strong results, aided by the strong contribution of EURO’24 and the increased gaming agenda, the Tzoker’s Mega jackpot (2nd biggest jackpot in history) and the powerful growth for yet another quarter of online casino with elevated player engagement. It is noted that the online channel continued to grow at a high pace (+17.6% y-o-y) and is now over 30% of total GGR in 3Q24 vs. 26.6% in 3Q23. We note that Instant & Passives is the only category that continued to record notable decrease of 11.9% y-o-y in 3Q24, negatively affected by the Scratch and laiko weak performance and strong online competition. Group’s net debt is at EUR 119.3m (with a solid cash position of EUR 525.3m vs. EUR 487.3 at FY23), with Net Debt/LTM EBITDA at 0.15x (0.18x incl. Leases) with OPAP producing over EUR 75m in FCF in 3Q24.
Comment: Overall, we expect OPAP’s solid performance and profitability recorded in 3Q24 to continue in 4Q24e, the historically strongest quarter of the year, aided by the enriched event sports calendar, while we expect online to continue growing. Also, the lower operating expenses in 4Q24 as the expensive front-loaded promotional campaign of Euro jackpot and Euro’24 have already normalized, will further increase profit margins. Management already stated that OPAP will be able to meet the upper bound of the management’s guidance for an EBITDA of EUR 750-770m. We reiterate our ‘Buy’ rating on attractive risk-adjusted returns and valuation grounds (29% upside potential from current price levels including dividend distributions) and a very attractive investment case (generous dividend, strong FCF, unlevered position).
National Bank launches a new VRS (press)
According to Kathimerini, National Bank launched a new VRS targeting the early retirement of up to 500 employers with a compensation of up to EUR 200k per employer.
Ellaktor 9M24 results out
Ellaktor announced 9M24 comparable revenues of EUR 221.7m (up by 6% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 143.8m (+6% y-o-y) and net profits of EUR 64.1m, vs. EUR 47.6m in 9M23. Cash flows from continued operations stood at EUR 78m in 9M24, with Net Cash standing at EUR 359m as of September 30, 2024, up by EUR 57m y-t-d, with total cash position standing at EUR 507m. Regarding outlook, the concessions segment is targeting the participation in PPP and Concession projects with a combined value of approximately EUR 6bn, either independently or through joint ventures.
ElvalHalcor 9M24 results out
ElvalHalcor reported 9M24 revenues of EUR 2,590.5m, up 1.4% y-o-y, EBITDA of EUR 173.2m compared to EUR 144.8m in 9M23 and net income after minorities of EUR 70.9m compared to EUR 33.4m in 9M23. Adjusted for inventory, EBITDA stood at EUR 180m, down 5.1% y-o-y. Sales volume rose by 4.5% YoY, driven by the 7.9% y-o-y increase in the aluminium segment, which more than offset the 3% drop in copper volume sales. Group net debt (including leasing) stood at EUR 691.5, down by EUR 171m y-o-y, supported by the solid operating cash inflows of EUR 192.8m, EUR 121.5m of which WC release and the lower by EUR 24m investing outflows of EUR 43.8m.
Quest Holdings 9M24 results out
The company posted a solid set of results, with revenues reaching EUR 925.9m, up by 12.0% y-o-y vs. EUR 826.9m in 9M23. On the profitability front, EBITDA improved by 8.9% y-o-y to EUR 65.1m vs. EUR 59.8m, while net profit increased marginally by 2.4% y-o-y to EUR 32.7m vs. EUR 31.9m in 9M23. Finally, the group’s net debt position increased to EUR 45.1m vs, EUR 17.0m in FY23 mainly due to the increased working capital needs for the development of commercial activity abroad. In October 2024, the company signed two important strategic agreements. 1) The acquisition of 70% of Benroubi shares for a total consideration of EUR7.2m and an option to buy the remaining 30% in 2027, further strengthening the group’s presence in the small electrical appliances market, and b) the sale of 20% of ACS to GLS for a consideration of EUR 74m with an option to sell the remaining 80% for the amount of EUR 296m. Finally, management stated that, in aggregate, they expect mild growth in sales and profitability for FY24.
Jumbo Share buyback
The company announced that it purchased on 19 November, 30,000 own shares at an average price of EUR 24.1175. The company now holds 406,857 shares or 0.30% of the total share capital.
Greek equities marked a strong recovery on Wednesday following recent losses, with the benchmark index recoding 1.3% gains, on a EUR 99.4m turnover. Banks demonstrated robust performance rising 1.6%, with Piraeus bank standing out +2.7% and NBG up 2%. On non-financials, most large-cap stocks finished on the green, with Titan outperforming, gaining 4.4%, Cenergy marking a 3.3% increase, while Aegean rose 2.2%, followed by OPAP +1.2%. Jumbo, GEK Terna and Motor Oil all finished flattish on the day.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MACRO I
According to BoD, the current account deficit increased to EUR 7.7bn in the period of January to September 2024, as the goods deficit widened driven by a 1.9% yoy increase in imports vs a 2.7% yoy drop in exports.
MACRO II
The State’s budget for 2025, submitted to the Parliament yesterday, includes fiscal measures of a total value of EUR 1.1bn, addressing, among others, a 1% reduction of social security contributions (EUR 440m) as well as a 2.45% increase in pensions (EUR 400m). Moreover, officials forecast GDP growth of 2.2% yoy in 2024 and 2.3% yoy in 2025, while annual inflation is expected to stand at 2.7% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. The debt/GDP ratio is projected to decrease to 154% in 2024 and move further downwards at 147.5% in 2025.
ATHENS GENERAL INDEX
In the semi-annual review yesterday, the free float factor for Bank of Cyprus was increased to 61% (from 56%) and for Cenergy Holdings to 29% (from 19%).
MOTOR OIL <MOH GA, OW>
Motor Oil reported 3Q24 numbers yesterday after the close, while also providing a 2030 strategy update. On quarterly basis, Group revenues stood at EUR 3.1bn from EUR 4.0bn in the same quarter last year, driven by a lower refining margin environment. Group adj. EBITDA stood at EUR 198m, broadly in line with consensus (avg EUR 204m) and 63% lower on yoy basis. Refining stood at EUR 125m, from EUR 463m, with fuels marketing at EUR 45m from 54m in 3Q23. Power & Gas adj EBITDA came in at EUR 22m, reporting a small drop on yoy basis. On adjusted basis, MOH reported net loss of EUR 86m, with bottom line burdened by the solidarity contribution recorded in the quarter but to be paid in 1Q25. Adj earnings after tax excluding solidarity contribution stood at EUR 114m. Capex for the quarter came in at EUR 64m, while net debt increased to EUR 1.83bn from 1.20bn in the same period last year. Mid distillate cracks continue to decline, on yoy and qoq basis, with gasoline reporting the biggest drop to USD 11.8/bbl from USD 18.8 in the previous quarter. Refining processed volume on 9M24 basis has increased to 9.6m MT from 9.3m in the same period last year, with Iraqi crude remaining the primary source of feedstock, while production yield remains broadly unchanged (diesel/gas at 32%). With regard to the 2030 strategy update, Motor Oil reiterates its commitment to diversification from refining, targeting RES capacity of 2.0GW by 2030 (840MW currently) with >EUR 250m of EBITDA. Investment plan is expected to total EUR 4.0bn by the end of 2030, focusing on RES, decarbonization and circular economy initiatives. A conference call is scheduled for Thursday, November 21st at 17:30 GR time (15:30 UK time, 10:30 NY time). Conference call Dial ins: GR +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 9460 800, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063, USA +1 516 447 5632, Intl +44 (0) 203 059 5872.
OPAP <OPAP GA, OW>
OPAP reported a strong set of 3Q24 results, recalibrating guidance towards the upper end of 2024 outlook which calls for GGR of EUR 2,150-2,200m and EBITDA of EUR 750-770m . GGR came in at EUR 566m, 4% higher vs our forecast and up 17%yoy mainly driven by Tzoker’s Mega jackpot, increased sportsbetting activity & strong online casino performance. Quarterly opex dropped 12.2% yoy to EUR 100m, in line with management’s guidance for lower opex in the second half of the year. Adj.EBITDA for the quarter stood at EUR 213m, up 23.8% yoy (lfl) and 7% higher than our estimate of EUR 198m, with recurring net profit at EUR 126m, +21%yoy and 1.8% above our numbers. Balance sheet continue to be strong, with net debt at ERU 119m and net debt/EBITDA at 0.18x. On segmental breakdown, lotteries GGR recorded a 20% yoy increase, with joker recording its second strongest jackpot ever. Sportsbetting came in fully inline with our forecasts at EUR 167m, favored by strong performance in powerspin and Euro cup rolling over to the beginning of the quarter (online sportsbetting at EUR 69m, +16% yoy). VLTs remained flattish (GGR EUR 83m), while Instant and Passives continued to demonstrate a weak performance, in line with expectations. Last but not least, Online casino contribution was the highest recorded, with GGR growth of 48%yoy to c.EUR 93m, on the back of higher player engagement levels. A conference call is scheduled for Thursday, November 21st at 16.00 GR time (14.00 UK time, 9.00am NY time). Conference call Dial ins: GR +30 211 180 2000, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063, USA +1 516 447 5632, Intl +44 (0) 203 059 5872.
NBG <ETE GA, OW>
Reporetly, NBG presented yesterday the VRS plan to employees.
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCHGR GA, OW>
Bank of Cyprus announced that Cyprus Popular Bank fully disposed its 4.8% stake in the bank.
ELVAL HALCOR <ELHA GA>
Elval Halcor released its 9M24 trading update yesterday, reporting revenues of EUR 2.6bn, approximately flat yoy, as the copper underperformance offset growth in aluminium sales. On a segmental basis, aluminium revenues reached EUR 1.3bn compared to EUR 1.2bn in the corresponding period of 2023, driven by a 7.7% yoy increase in volumes, as a result of the completed investments in the aluminium rolling division. Copper turnover marked a 0.7% yoy drop, amounting to EUR 1.28bn due to wavering demand of products for construction, leading to a 2.8% yoy decrease in sales volumes. Group’s a-EBITDA stood at EUR 180m, down 5.1% yoy, with aluminium a-EBITDA at EUR 100.3m (-9% yoy) and copper at EUR 79.7m (+1 yoy). Moreover, profit before tax reached EUR 90.7m, vs EUR 49.8m in 9M23, while profit after tax and minorities amounted to EUR 70.9m, compared to EUR 33.3m in 9M23.
Management will host a conference call today at 15:00 GR time (13:00 UK). Dial ins: GR +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800, UK +44 (0) 800 368 1063 , UK & Intl +44 (0) 203 059 5872 , US +1 516 447 5632.
Market Comment // The Greek mkt bounced back on Wednesday after five consecutive declining sessions, with the General Index ending the session +1.31% higher, in contrast with most European markets which finished in the red. Trading activity however softened to €99.4m, standing below the 100-d MA of €118.8m with banks representing less than 40% of the total value. Titan stood out among gainers, rising +4.41% combined with strong trading activity. Quest, Fourlis, Kri Kri and Cenergy followed suit with gains >3% and Piraeus, Aegean, Autohellas and OTE also advanced >2%. Among other blue chips rising more than 1% were NBG, Alpha, Sarantis, Metlen, Lamda and OPAP. On the negative, ELHA, Dimand, Attica bank and Premia were among the few decliners. Today futures point to a mixed opening, as investors are digesting Nvidia’s lackluster forecast despite the results beat, while geopolitical concerns are weighing on sentiment.
FTSE/ATHEX // The semi-annual review of FTSE/ATHEX Index series resulted in the addition of Optima bank in the FTSE/ATHEX Large cap index, replacing Autohellas, as well as an investability weight change in Cenergy. In the FTSE/ATHEX Mid Cap index Autohellas and Noval Property are entering, replacing Optima bank and Thessaloniki Water, while we have also 4 investability weight changes. In the ATHEX General Index the semi-annual review resulted in five additions, namely Performance Technologies, Lampsa, Orilina Properties, Ekter and Papoutsanis and six investability weight changes. Changes will be effective as of opening on Monday 23rd December (flow Friday 20th Dec).
OPAP // OPAP has reported a very strong Q3, growing revenues +18% yoy, thanks to easy comps, Joker jackpot and strong online (+36%) coupled with the normalization of costs which were frontloaded to H1’24 (non variable opex -11% yoy in Q3). These led EBITDA to an impressive +24% increase yoy on an adjusted basis (€213m), or +47% on a reported basis (Q3’23 weighed down by provisions). Mgt echoes more confidence about the FY24 outlook, now suggesting that EBITDA is set to shape at the upper end of the €750-770m range (1-3% growth yoy). With our €772m number (just slightly above guidance) implying 7% decline in Q4’24, we argue that profitability is likely to exceed €785m in the full year, thus identifying c2% upside to current consensus (€772m).
Motor Oil // Q3’24 results landed slightly below our estimates, with Q3’24 adjusted settling EBITDA at €198mn (-63% yoy and -4% vs EEe), driven by weaker-than-anticipated performance in the power and gas segment. Q3’24 adjusted net profit settled at €114mn, down 70% yoy, but beat our estimate by 25%, due to lower interest expenses and stronger profits from associates. On a reported basis, Motor Oil recognized the solidarity contribution (windfall profits tax) for 2023, which resulted in a reported net loss of €145mn (vs our estimate of €154mn).
Quest // Quest announced a strong set of Q3 results with EBITDA growing 13% yoy reaching €23.5m, on +8% sales growth (€306m), primarily driven by double digit growth in IT services and improving margins in both IT services and commercial activities. This translated into 9M’24 EBITDA of €65.1m, up by 9% yoy with revenues shaping at €926m (+12%). Overall results were in line with our forecasts (just 1% beat in 9M profitability lines), largely underpinning our FY’24 EBITDA forecast for +8% EBITDA growth (which implies a flat Q4’24e EBITDA).
IDEAL Holdings // IDEAL is set to release 9M’24 results today, pre market open. We estimate pro forma Adj. EBITDAaL at €27.1m (+15% yoy) and pro forma Revenue at €262m (+21% yoy) expecting results to be driven primarily by stronger IT. Our forecasts place pro forma 9M’24 net profit at €10.5m (slightly below the €11.2m from 9M’23, due to elevated financial expenses from the Dec’23 bond issue).
NBG // NBG announced a new VRS plan yesterday, aiming to reduce staff by another c500 employees (Kathimerini). This was anticipated. We remind that NBG’s headcount in Greece is c6.8k (up by 100 employees ytd) while its domestic network counts 314 branches (flattish ytd).
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
