Ποσό 300 εκατ. ευρώ υπολογίζει πως θα εισπράξει το υπουργείο Οικονοµικών από την επιβολή της έκτακτης εισφοράς 33% στα διυλιστήρια. Τα 250 εκατ. ευρώ θα διατεθούν για τη χορήγηση επιδόµατος στους συνταξιούχους µε προσωπική διαφορά τα Χριστούγεννα και τα υπόλοιπα €50 εκ. στο Π∆Ε.
Έκλεισε το ντιλ για την Τέρνα Ενεργειακή, τίµηµα στα €20 ανά µετοχή. Η ΓΕΚ ΤΕΡΝΑ υπέγραψε σύµβαση αγοραπωλησίας µε τη Masdar για το 36,59%. Στη συνέχεια ανεβαίνει το ποσοστό στο 67% και ακολουθεί δηµόσια πρόταση. Το term sheet µεταξύ Masdar και τραπεζών για την εξαγορά της Τέρνα Ενεργειακή προβλέπει ότι το fund του Abu Dhabi θα χρηµατοδοτήσει κατά 50% από τραπεζικό δανεισµό το τίµηµα (1,6 δισ.) για την απόκτηση του 67% της ΤΕΝΕΡΓ από µπλοκ µετόχων. Το υπόλοιπο 50% θα το καλύψει η Masdar µε ίδια συµµετοχή.O µητρικός όµιλος ΓΕΚ Τέρνα θα είναι ο κύριος ωφεληµένος της συναλλαγής, δεδοµένης της σηµαντικής ταµειακής εισροής από τη συµφωνία.Περιστέρης: Το ντιλ µε Masdar διασφάλισε όλους τους µετόχους της ΤΕΝΕΡΓ. Η µεγαλύτερη εξαγορά στην οποία έχει προχωρήσει µέχρι σήµερα η Masdar διεθνώς, τόνισε. Την διανοµή µερίσµατος €0,38/µετοχή ενέκρινε η ΓΣ.
Παραµένει «ταύρος» για τη ΓΕΚ Τέρνα η Euroxx, µετά την ανακοίνωση της συµφωνίας για την Τέρνα Ενεργειακή. H τιµή-στόχος είναι τα 20 ευρώ και η σύσταση «overweight».Τιτάν: Επενδύσεις €19,2 εκατ. για περιορισµό της κλιµατικής αλλαγής το 2023 στην Ελλάδα.
ΥΠΑ: Αυξήθηκε 13% η επιβατική κίνηση στα αεροδρόµια στο πρώτο πεντάµηνο. Η συνολική επιβατική κίνηση το χρονικό διάστηµα Ιανουαρίου-Μαΐου 2024 έφτασε τους 20.419.817 επιβάτες.
ΕΛΣΤΑΤ: +18% στον δείκτη Κ.Ε. βιοµηχανίας τον Απρίλιο.
Ιανουάριος-Απριλίου 2024: το έλλειµµα του ισοζυγίου τρεχουσών συναλλαγών αυξήθηκε κατά 1,1 δισ. ευρώ σε σχέση µε το πρώτο τετράµηνο του 2023 και διαµορφώθηκε σε 6,8 δισ. ευρώ. Στα 11,5 δις. το έλλειµµα εµπορικού ισοζυγίου (+€1,9 δις.), στα €2 δις (+€0,1 δις) το πλεόνασµα ισοζυγίου υπηρεσιών.
* Changes in Athens General and FTSE/ATHEX indices, effective as of today’s close
* MSCI refrains from placing Greek equities on its “watchlist” for a potential Developed Market upgrade; we see a better chance of promotion with FTSE Russel review in Sep
* Greece slaps 33% tax on domestic refineries’ excess 2023 profits
* Terna Energy (TENERGY GA): UAE’s Masdar reaches binding deals to acquire 64.7% of the voting rights, will launch tender offer for minorities upon closing; agreement includes call and put options for certain assets
* Alpha Bank (ALPHA GA) allegedly among approached parties for 15% stake in Bank of Cyprus; sells €0.24bn leasing NPE portfolio at 36% of GBV
* Titan Cement (TITC GA) completed €19.2m green investments in 2023
* Jan-April 2024 current account deficit widens by 19% yoy to €6.8bn, as trade balance deteriorates
ATHEX headed south yesterday, underperforming the European markets. In more detail, the General Index narrowed by 0.31% at 1,421.71 units, (FTSE Large Cap: -0.22%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.78%, Banks Index: -1.16%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 159.5m, up from Wednesday’s EUR 92.9m. MSCI left ATHEX in the emerging market status, whilst June contracts expire today and therefore we expect a volatile session.
Macro Headlines
Greece expects to collect EUR 300m from the tax on refineries, to support pensioners and Public investments
The Greek PM Mr. Mitsotakis said yesterday that the government expects to collect up to EUR 300m from the extraordinary tax on the refineries. The revenue will be used mainly for the financial support of pensioners in December, as well as for strengthening of the National Public Investments Program. As of July 1, the reduced VAT rate for taxis becomes permanent (from 24% to 13%), with an estimated annual fiscal cost of EUR 45m. In addition, the reduced VAT rate (13%) remains on coffee, cocoa, tea and concerning deliveries of goods (take away and delivery), with an estimated fiscal cost of EUR 65m p.a.
Industrial Turnover index up by 18.0% in April (ELSTAT)
ELSTAT has announced that Greece’s Turnover Index in Industry (both domestic and non-domestic market) increased by 18.0% y-o-y in April 2024 compared to a decrease of 7.4% y-o-y in April 2023 while increased by 10.2% m-o-m. The average Turnover Index in Industry in the May 2023- April 2024 period dropped by 4.4% y-o-y compared to a 22.7% y-o-y rise in the respective May 2022-April 2023 period.
Sector Headlines
Extra 33% tax on refineries
The National Economy and Finance Ministry announced yesterday the imposition of a temporary solidarity contribution on the refineries of 33% on the excess profits for 2023 compared to the 2018-21 average. Based on our preliminary estimates, the impact for Motor Oil is approximately EUR 200m (c. EUR 1.8/share) and a similar or lower amount for HELLENiQ ENERGY.
Market Headlines
MSCI did not include ATHEX on its watch list
MSCI in his yearly Global Market classification review did not include ATHEX on its watch list for promotion to Developed Market status.
Semi-Annual Review of ATHEX Index Series changes today
According to the semi-annual review of the ATHEX Index series for the period November 2023-April 2024, Optima Bank-Intralot-Domiki Kritis and Quality & Reliability will be added to ATHEX Composite Price Index, whilst Ekter, Athens Medical, Elastron, Loulis Food, Space Hellas will be deleted. Moreover, Athens International Airport will be added to FTSE/ATHEX Large Cap and Quest Holdings will be deleted. Furthermore, Optima Bank and Quest Holdings will be added to FTSE/ATHEX Mid Cap Index, whilst Alumil, Premia REIC will be deleted. Finally, Optima Bank will be added to FTSE Banks Index. Changes will be effective on Tuesday 25 June.
Company Headlines
Optima Bank will be added to ATHEX and FTSE/ATHEX Index Series today
According to the semi-annual review of the FTSE/ATHEX Index Series as well as the ATHEX Index Series, for the period November 2023-April 2024, Optima Bank will be added today at the close to FTSE / ATHEX MID CAP, FTSE/ ATHEX MARKET, FTSE / ATHEX BANKS, FTSE / ATHEX FINANCIAL SERVICES, ATHEX Composite Price Index and ATHEX Composite Total Return Index.
Optima Bank to trade ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June
The stock is set to trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.44, DY: 3.5%) on Tuesday 25 June and payment will commence on Monday 01 July.
First read following the GEKTERNA-Masdar deal:
- Zero debt pro forma for GEKTERNA post transaction
- GEKTERNA holds a call option to buy 50% of 3GW from the less mature RES projects (mainly pump and storage, Hydros and offshore projects) from Masdar
- Current leverage and cash position offers EUR 2bn equity and 9bn EV projects capacity, which allows the company to bid for EUR8-9bn projects in the medium term
- Many projects in Greece and Balkans suitable with GEKTERNA’s business profile
- No extraordinary capital return will be distributed from GEKTERNA, cash proceeds will be channeled towards investments
- Valuation: EV/EBITDA 16x, P/E: 34x
- Public offer is expected no sooner than November
- Expected clearance of the transaction from relevant authorities in 6 months
- Official conference call for the transaction will be provided tomorrow
Alpha Services and Holdings reorganization of Alpha Leasing
Alpha announced that the reorganization of Alpha Leasing will be effectuated by a common demerger of Alpha Leasing. The completion of the Demerger will entail (i) the transfer of the performing leasing contracts along with the relevant real estate interests to a newly established leasing entity that will remain part of the Group, (ii) the transfer of certain real estate assets to other Group Companies and (iii) the transfer of a perimeter of nonperforming financial leases along with the related real estate interests with a Gross Book Value of approximately EUR 240m (the “Andros Portfolio”) to Hellas Capital Leasing, a Greek leasing company, wholly owned by funds managed or advised by Bain Capital. In light of the above, Alpha Leasing and its sole shareholder Alpha Holding S.A. have entered into a binding agreement with HCL and its shareholder, for the disposal by Alpha Holding to HCL’s shareholder of the shareholding interest that Alpha Holding S.A. will acquire in HCL upon completion of the Demerger, against the transfer of the Andros Portfolio to HCL. The consideration for the transfer of the said shareholding interest in HCL exceeds 36% of the Gross Book Value (EUR >86m) of the Andros Portfolio. The transaction is expected to have no material impact on the capital and the liquidity position of the Group and completion is expected to take place by the end of 2024.
Bank of Cyprus shareholders explore sale of stake-Press
Reportedly (Bloomberg), two of the top investors (AB CarVal Investors: 9.07%, Caius Capital: 5.58%) at Bank of Cyprus that hold a combined 14.65% stake, have approached potential buyers including Alpha Services and Holdings. Bank of Cyprus has a market cap of EUR 1.9bn and hence the value of the combined stake amounts to EUR 278m, based on yesterday’s closing price.
OPAP to trade ex-capital return on 25 June
The company will trade ex-capital return of EUR 0.25 per share on Tuesday 25 June. Note that due to the bank holiday on Monday today is the last day with the dividend right. (DY: 1.7%)
CENERGY’s Hellenic Cables large EPCI contract with Elia Asset NV/SA for HV submarine cables valued EUR 200m
In a supplementary announcement,Cenergy Holdings said that the contract with Elia Asset NV/SA, for the engineering, procurement, construction, and installation (EPCI) of 165km high voltage submarine power cables, is valued at EUR 200m. It is noted, that similar projects offer >20% EBITDA margin, implying EBITDA contribution of EUR 45-50m by the finalization of the project in 2027.
CENERGY Holdings ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June
CENERGY Holdings is set to trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.08, DY: 0.9%) on Tuesday 25 June.
Titan Cement ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June
Titan Cement is set to trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.85, DY: 2.9%) on Tuesday 25 June.
Hellenic Exchanges to trade ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June
The stock is set to trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.25, DY: 5.0%) on Tuesday 25 June and payment will commence on Monday 01 July.
VIOHALCO ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June
VIOHALCO is set to trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.12, DY: 2.0%) on Tuesday 25 June.
ElvalHalcor ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June
ElvalHalcor is set to trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.04, DY: 2.2%) on Tuesday 25 June.
Holdings ex-dividend on Tuesday 25 June
The stock is set to trade ex-dividend (DPS: EUR 0.05, DY: 1.6%) on Tuesday 25 June and payment will commence on Monday 01 July.
*Euroxx Χρηματιστηριακή (https://www.euroxx.gr)
The market finished the day flattish, with the benchmark index down -0.3%, on a high EUR 160m turnover. Banks came under pressure (down -1.1%) on worries for a one-off tax on the sector. Alpha (-1.5%) and Piraeus Bank (-1.8%) recording the biggest losses. On non-financials, the focus was on GEKTERNA (+1.7%) following the Terna Energy transaction. PPC also rose 2.1% while Jumbo was up 1.7%, followed by Titan +c1.4% and Metlen +0.9%. On red, refiners were hit on the solidarity tax news (Motor Oil down 3.3%, Helleniq Energy down -c2.9%). The ASE market will be closed on Monday due to a public holiday.
MACRO – CORPORATE NEWS
MSCI
The ASE market was not included in a watchlist for a potential reclassification to Developed Status yesterday.
MACRO
According to BoG, the current account deficit has widened to EUR 6.8bn in the period of January-April 2024, compared to EUR 5.7bn in the same period of 2023, mainly driven by a deterioration in the balance of goods.
REFINERS – MOTOR OIL & HELLENIQ ENERGY
The Ministry of Finance announced yesterday a one-off tax on refiners on FY23 profitability, similar to the one-off tax implemented in 2022. Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis stated that the total amount of social contribution to be paid by the two refining companies is c.EUR 300m, with the details of the calculation methodology still not disclosed.
News is negative, with the market reaction translated into losses of 3.3% for Motor Oil and 2.9% for HELLENiQ ENERGY on yesterday’s close. The method of calculation is not yet very clear. Nevertheless, assuming a similar methodology to 2022, the tax payment will be lower given the reduction in profits and should range EUR 120-150m for HELLENiQ ENERGY and c.EUR 200m for Motor Oil, on a net basis.
BANK OF CYPRUS <BOCH LN, OW>
According to a Bloomberg article, two large investors in Bank of Cyprus (CarVal and Caius Capital) with a combined holding of c.15% are working with an advisor to gauge interest for a potential sale of their stake. Reportedly, they also approached Alpha Bank (which, however, according to Euro2day denied the information).
We retain our view that there is strong value in Bank of Cyprus share, which continue to trade at a 20-25% discount to European peers on 2026E earnings. On a sustainable basis (assuming a 200bps decline in ECB rates) the stock trades at an appealing P/E of <6x with a P/TBV of <0.7x (with ROTE at 12% or >15% adjusted for the excess capital). In view of the strong CET1 ratio, the shares are offer an attractive dividend with total yields of 8-9% per annum.
GEKTERNA <GEKTERNA GA, OW>
The management is due to host a conference call today at 11:30 Greek time (10:30 CET) to update on the latest developments and the agreement to sell its stake in Terna Energy. Dials in GR +30 213 009 6000; UK +44 (0) 800 3681063; Int: +44 (0) 203 0592872; US +1 516 447 5632.
ATHENS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT <AIA GA, EW>
AIA announced that the Athens Administrative Court of Appeals has accepted the company’s appeal for the years 2001 and 2003 (total amount of EUR 149.5m). For other smaller amounts the Court of Appeals partially accepted the appeal, or the cases are still pending. We remind that the Greek tax authorities contested the right of the company to set off the total amount of VAT inflows with the amount of VAT outflows until December 2015, and imposed VAT charges, for the financial years 1998-2012. The imposed VAT charges for 1998-2003 and 2010-2011 were EUR 155.1m. The case went to the Court of Appeals. No provision has been reflected in the company financials.
The acceptance of the court of the AIA appeal for the largest amount under dispute (EUR 149.5m out of a total of EUR 155.1m) is positive and removes a potential overhung.
Market Comment // Despite a positive opening, the ASE index ended 0.31% lower on Thursday at 1,421.71 points underperforming the gains eventually registered by other European bourses, with the domestic market weighed by the tax on refineries. Trading activity increased to €159.5mn, above the 100-day moving average of €146.6m, with banks accounting for c32.0% of traded value. Banks (-1.2%) and Refiners led decliners, with Motor Oil shedding 3.4% and Helleniq Energy -2.9%, while Piraeus Bank and Alpha Bank posted losses of 1.8% and 1.6% respectively, followed by NBG (-1.3%). AIA, Trade Estates and Fourlis also retreated >1%. On the flipside, Optima Bank stood out among gainers rallying 2.64% followed by Dimand (+2.60%) and PPC (+2.1%), while Motodynamics, Jumbo, Gek Terna and Titan advanced >1%. EU futures point to modest moves today as investors continue to assess the economic, political and policy outlook. We remind that the market will be closed on Monday 24th June due to a public holiday.
ATHEX // MSCI retained Greece in “Emerging” market status after its Annual Market Classification Review. As such, market focus shifts to a similar evaluation process by other houses (FTSE, Stoxx) in Q3’24.
Refineries // The Greek govt decided yesterday to implement a “windfall profits” tax on Greek refineries for a second year. The solidarity levy envisages a tax of 33% on 2023 “surplus” profits, i.e. profits in excess of a 20% increase in average profit of the period 2018-2021. The govt estimates the tax envelope at c€300m, somewhat lower than our initial estimate of €400m. The levy corresponds to c17% of refineries’ adj. 2024e EBITDA.
Terna Energy // In our new flash note, we provide an overview of the structure and the timeline of the deal with Masdar (likely be completed in 4-6 months). Post completion, Masdar will control >67% of Tenergy, thus eventually proceeding to a public offer. The deal values Tenergy at an EV of €3.2bn, c16x 1-yr fwd EV/EBITDA, >25% premium vs peers justified by the Group’s secured high-level offtake prices, its niche project portfolio, as well as by the strategic nature of the investment. Updating our estimates for the revised guidance and recalibrating our valuation for the M&A, we have raised our PT to €20 (from €18), lowering our rating to “Hold” from “Buy” on valuation grounds.
FTSE // Flow from the quarterly review of FTSE Global Equity indices review as of today’s close. As a reminder, the quarterly review of FTSE Global Equity indices resulted in the inclusion of Optima Bank in the FTSE All-World Index and the FTSE Emerging Europe Mid Cap Index. As such, constituents in the FTSE All-World Index will rise to 29.
Dividends // Next week will see several stocks trading ex-div. 1) On Tuesday: ATHEX (€0.25), Cenergy (€0.08), OPAP (€0.25 capital return), Quest (€0.22), Titan (€0.85), ICI (€2.21), ELHA (€0.04), Optima (€0.44), Viohalco (€0.12). 2) On Wednesday: Fourlis (€0.12), MOH (€1.40), Mytilineos (€1.50).
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ΑΠΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΕΥΘΥΝΩΝ: Το περιεχόμενο και οι πληροφορίες της στήλης προσφέρονται αποκλειστικά και μόνο για ενημερωτικούς σκοπούς και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν μπορούν να εκληφθούν ως συμβουλή, πρόταση, προσφορά για αγορά ή πώληση των κινητών αξιών, ούτε ως προτροπή για την πραγματοποίηση οποιασδήποτε μορφής επένδυσης. Κατά συνέπεια δεν υφίσταται ουδεμία ευθύνη για τυχόν επενδυτικές και λοιπές αποφάσεις που θα ληφθούν με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές.
